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ReadtheMarket - Supply and Demand with Price Action

  • #3,641
  • Oct 20, 2017 12:43pm Oct 20, 2017 12:43pm
Tibetian,

I'm very grateful that you found the time to make so precise answer. Since you make it perfectly clear what we can expect as a true MPL I will ask about setting targets.

Based on IF's charts at the front page we should aim at the origin of the move lower if new created flag (after engulfing the old one to the upside) is breached to the downside. I would like to know if it's a rule. Moreover are we able to pinpoint the entry so that there is no look back (so in my example breaching flag to the downside after MPL being set .... either at the very top of the green flag or after ... fakeout ?)





Quoting Tibetian
Hi Vinsanity, that sure looks like a QM, but IMHO the MPL is a little higher. Please take a look at my chart below. I use orange boxes to represent FLs that hold price down, and blue boxes to represent FLs that hold price up. Further, I use 'triangle' to represent compression zone. (I know RTM uses dotted lines, but I think dotted line on tradingview looks ugly, so I prefer to use triangle). I didn't draw ALL the FLs that I saw because it will make the chart unreadable. I just use this to highlight the most important part of my thinking: {image}...
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  • #3,642
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:11pm Oct 20, 2017 1:11pm
Thanks T - I do realize that one needs to understand the script and not the stage necessarily which would explain why no one has asked about Can Can alot. Engulf, retrace, move to target in what ever form that all takes, seems to be the key. The rest is just our minds trying to make order out of chaos. But IF does say that this whole process is orderly(for them, IT) and repeatable so you do have to KNOW the rules of engagement. I will strive to understand more completely. Thanks
Karma is a bitch, so play nice w/her
  • #3,643
  • Edited 2:16pm Oct 20, 2017 1:45pm | Edited 2:16pm
Hi Vinsanity, it's pleasure and please I am only learning this method so I am no guru at all, I just hope that my answers make sense and not direct anyone down a completely wrong path!

In one of your picture below you ask:" Does the break of this flag above always mean that we should visit the origin of the move at some point in time?"

IMHO, we have to be very careful about assuming where our target is. In essence, we are playing a cat and mouse game with the ITs (institutional traders), can anyone say for sure they know what ITs are thinking? I doubt it, because if I am ITs, I wouldn't tell people what I had in mind, and I will try to create as much confusion as possible. Therefore, my guess is, there is a reason why IF and his soldiers love to trade LTF (like 1-min chart). Because doing so, allow them to get the required RR fast, and to them, the 1-min chart is just as reliable as the Monthly chart. Further, if you trade 1-min chart at the EXTREME of Monthly FL, if you are lucky, price can travel to the opposite Monthly FL and you can imagine what that can do to you account? And by watching all of IF's videos, I have watched each of them at least 3 times, one message came across very strongly - always take enough profit at your FIRST target. And how do we define this First target? I believe this is defined as the nearest place that has the potential to reverse price towards your entry, so it can be the nearest 'kink', nearest SR, nearest SD zone, you see on your entry timeframe, I have seen the word 'Conservative TG' being used, or 'CTG'. So always take enough profit at CTG and then let the rest of the trade run.

On your second question: "The highest point it can travel(MPL) is within the boundaries of the green flag, am I right?"

IMHO, if the green FL (call it UFL) is the source of an engulf south - an engulf of a LFL of the same time-scale, and then after this engulf price retraces back up to the green UFL without hitting the next LFL (the red FL below the one it just engulfed), then yes, this green UFL is expected to hold price and you can certainly expect a bounce. So in this context, the answer to your question is YES. but do bear in mind that sometimes, ITs can break their own rules to, so nothing is absolute, but if you follow the rules, then you will end up on the winning side more often than not.

Now, sometimes, your green FL can get broken before price reaches the red FL below. The problem, is to do with target again, because sometimes, target is not visible!! You may see a clear 'LFL' below (like your red FL) and you assume that the green UFL has to hold and push price towards the obvious LFL, but in between there could be something else. This is best explained in the video here (around 55 min):
https://youtu.be/oLZFm2GhN-Y?t=55m1s

Last point about Fakeout vs Engulf, after I read all these posts, my conclusion is, FO is an engulf that has reached its target, whereas an engulf is a break of structure into a free space, and by free space I mean price hasn't yet hit another barrier. But this is from what I have read, and I am passing it on to you, the question is, are you going to the warzone after reading what other people has posted? Certainly not me.. so go check these FO, see where price faked into before it reversed.


T

Quoting Vinsanity
Tibetian, I'm very grateful that you found the time to make so precise answer. Since you make it perfectly clear what we can expect as a true MPL I will ask about setting targets. Based on IF's charts at the front page we should aim at the origin of the move lower if new created flag (after engulfing the old one to the upside) is breached to the downside. I would like to know if it's a rule. Moreover are we able to pinpoint the entry so that there is no look back (so in my example breaching flag to the downside after MPL being set .......
  • #3,644
  • Oct 21, 2017 6:55am Oct 21, 2017 6:55am
Tibetian, thanks for providing the link to IF's webinar. I've seen it before but I guess it's one of those vids when you get "aha moment" each time you rewatch it
Moreover you couldn't have been more clear with your analysis of my charts even though you portray yourself as (just) a student of RTM.

In the mean time I would like to know if anyone focus on data feed's reliability ? I assume it's a focal point for a strategy which looks for slight breaches of major levels.
Here are present four chart of Crude Oil (CFDs and Futures). I'm quite puzzled and confused since it's hard to distinguish which one is the correct one.
Anybody have some expierence with contract's expiration and rollovers ?
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  • #3,645
  • Oct 21, 2017 7:16am Oct 21, 2017 7:16am
Hi V - futures rollover is mostly volume or time based which can be the same thing, i.e. on a particular date when everyone starts trading the next contract. You can go to Barchart.com to find out this info. You can find some of this data for free like at Yahoo or find a provider like eSignal but you'll need software to adjust the contracts for you on the fly and then chart it. So you're best bet is to determine which instrument you want to trade. Trading commodities like Crude Oil is best done in charting packages made for futures like Multicharts or Ninja Trader not MT4.
Karma is a bitch, so play nice w/her
  • #3,646
  • Oct 21, 2017 8:03am Oct 21, 2017 8:03am
Indeed I've noticed multiple times that there are huge difference between MT4 data feed and official ones from regulated exchanges.
That's why I always compare couple of sources. Nevertheless trading commododities is really luring me since margin requirements are very low and if you match it with volatility they offer ... then RTM methodology with it's attractive RR ratio seems as the natural choice

Speaking about the Crude, we've got interesting PA last couple of days and written few more chapters since Tibetian made his analysis.



Quoting billmac3
Hi V - futures rollover is mostly volume or time based which can be the same thing, i.e. on a particular date when everyone starts trading the next contract. You can go to Barchart.com to find out this info. You can find some of this data for free like at Yahoo or find a provider like eSignal but you'll need software to adjust the contracts for you on the fly and then chart it. So you're best bet is to determine which instrument you want to trade. Trading commodities like Crude Oil is best done in charting packages made for futures like Multicharts...
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  • #3,647
  • Oct 21, 2017 8:04am Oct 21, 2017 8:04am
Quoting Vinsanity
Tibetian, thanks for providing the link to IF's webinar. I've seen it before but I guess it's one of those vids when you get "aha moment" each time you rewatch it Moreover you couldn't have been more clear with your analysis of my charts even though you portray yourself as (just) a student of RTM. In the mean time I would like to know if anyone focus on data feed's reliability ? I assume it's a focal point for a strategy which looks for slight breaches of major levels. Here are present four chart of Crude Oil (CFDs and Futures). I'm quite...
CFD brokers can either "gap" the chart @ futures expiration or adjust the price & leave the chart without a gap. If you're holding a position & they "gap" the chart, then they'll add or deduct the gap amount in your account with a debit or credit.

The correct chart is a futures chart so looking @ a CFD chart that isn't adjusted correctly will be difficult to trade with precise levels. The only precise levels that can be used are levels created from the time of the roll. All historical levels prior to roll may be incorrect. PA may be very similar just @ the wrong level on the chart.
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  • #3,648
  • Oct 23, 2017 1:57pm Oct 23, 2017 1:57pm
I believe AU just completed a textbook Can Can. Pole, drop back to base of pole, CP into supply and drop back to base of pole and CP. There was even an engulf for icing on the cake.
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Karma is a bitch, so play nice w/her
  • #3,649
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:06am Oct 24, 2017 4:06am
I remember the days, long ago, where I'd try to catch the tips of all time highs.

I'd enter, hoping this would be the last push before the collapse. I'd lose, and enter higher, with the same hope.
On one of the indices I think I lost maybe 10% in a month (which was okay, since my non hope based trading was still making profits).

Well, now, I'm trying it again, but this time with a little more finesse. Whether this is the top or not, I'm still going to profit from the entry, by taking some profit early

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  • #3,650
  • Oct 24, 2017 1:07pm Oct 24, 2017 1:07pm
IF,
I tried to do some reverse engineering based on your last setup. Please tell me whether I'm anywhere near your reasoning

Quoting Ifmyante
I remember the days, long ago, where I'd try to catch the tips of all time highs. I'd enter, hoping this would be the last push before the collapse. I'd lose, and enter higher, with the same hope. On one of the indices I think I lost maybe 10% in a month (which was okay, since my non hope based trading was still making profits). Well, now, I'm trying it again, but this time with a little more finesse. Whether this is the top or not, I'm still going to profit from the entry, by taking some profit early {image}
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  • #3,651
  • Oct 24, 2017 1:26pm Oct 24, 2017 1:26pm
Hiya

Entry and alert: Perfect

Exit: Only based upon the need to take some profit. I won't be looking at it again for a while, unless I get that alert, so my exit was purely to remain positive whatever happens, rather than based upon any PA
  • #3,652
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:27pm Oct 24, 2017 3:27pm
When you are OnE with IFs mind
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Meeee
  • #3,653
  • Oct 25, 2017 2:00am Oct 25, 2017 2:00am
Quoting Ifmyante
Okay So this is the first push into the zone. I see that there are a few orders left at the price you marked on the recent low. What I don't see yet is a powerful enticement for the herd to buy, which is important at a place where the ITs want to turn price. What I'd like to see is a strong bullish move made from here, to get the buyers in, so their stops can be taken at around 1.2012 or 1.19 40 to 50
Could be a touch trade...
RIP RTM
  • #3,654
  • Oct 27, 2017 7:17am Oct 27, 2017 7:17am
OK, I'm scratching my head over this one. Price came down to the purple circle and seemed to hold for a couple of hours but ultimately fell thru. Is this failure because Price at H3 didn't engulf H1? There was a nice engulf of H2 by H3 and there was a nice trick played at L4. What am I missing? Thanks
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  • #3,655
  • Oct 27, 2017 8:14am Oct 27, 2017 8:14am
OK, I think I see where I went wrong. I was focused on H2 engulfing H1 and the previous high from 10/4. Price was saying it wants to go down when L2 engulfed L1. So I should've looked at Trick 1 to sell. Not pip perfect and the stop was 20 pips wide but good for 8.5R I was actually looking higher to sell around 1.3295. Please feel free to comment. Thanks
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  • #3,656
  • Oct 27, 2017 9:08am Oct 27, 2017 9:08am
Hi T,

It looks like that something was wrong with my analysis. Despite the (engulf?) lower they manage to breach through Daily Flag you mentioned.

Confused ...

Quoting Tibetian
Hi Vinsanity, that sure looks like a QM, but IMHO the MPL is a little higher. Please take a look at my chart below. I use orange boxes to represent FLs that hold price down, and blue boxes to represent FLs that hold price up. Further, I use 'triangle' to represent compression zone. (I know RTM uses dotted lines, but I think dotted line on tradingview looks ugly, so I prefer to use triangle). I didn't draw ALL the FLs that I saw because it will make the chart unreadable. I just use this to highlight the most important part of my thinking: {image}...
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  • #3,657
  • Oct 27, 2017 10:44am Oct 27, 2017 10:44am
Oh, ha, I am confused too, but it's more to do with data feed, I have checked several platform, and some platform didn't have that engulf!
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Anyway, there is nothing wrong with your analysis. As I have said previously, the most difficult thing I am facing at the moment is to know where the target is! You see on my chart above (and also my previous chart in the previous post), yes, FL-B was engulfed, but price engulfed straight into FL-A. So the question is, do we considered target reached? If the answer is YES, then there is no PA for short at the small orange FL (which is a pre-compression zone, you can treat it like a flag limit). Notice that price did return to the orange FL after engulfing B and then it did react a little. If you go into smaller timeframe, you will see that price dropped into a compressed zone, it reached the beginning of the compressed zone (which is another area where you can treat it like an FL), and then bounced strongly upwards.

Again, I must say that I am also struggling with identifying exactly where the target is, because if you do analysis down to 1-min chart, you will see 'lines' everywhere, and price can bounce from anywhere. Knowing exactly where price is going to bounce is not straight forward, especially when you're taking live trades. For example, you may see price getting into a H4 supply zone, you are ready to short, and you go down to 5-min to look for Quasimodo, alas, you find that this QM is not straightforward at all, many time price would break beyond the HH, and create a diamond.

Just yesterday, I thought I saw several QM on EURAUD as it was going up and up, and I shorted them, and got two straight losses (I didn't put my SL above the FL that the QM is reacting to, I was greedy!), and then just when I have given up, it plunged like there's no tomorrow!
  • #3,658
  • Oct 27, 2017 11:20am Oct 27, 2017 11:20am
Indeed same problem here (targets)

I've checked other feed and if we take December's contract then truly we've got still room for a turn. On the other hand that chart doesn't have CP PAZ you pointed before.

Based on attached chart we are visiting strong supply which would be great place for standard S/D Short trade. However those (huge) data feed differences are confusing me mightly and maybe that's why I haven't seen a lot of commodities' charts. Usually RMT family is sharing FX trades

EDIT :

Actually if we look closer at the engulf we are talking about it looks that it might have found its target (second chart)


Quoting Tibetian
Oh, ha, I am confused too, but it's more to do with data feed, I have checked several platform, and some platform didn't have that engulf! {image} Anyway, there is nothing wrong with your analysis. As I have said previously, the most difficult thing I am facing at the moment is to know where the target is! You see on my chart above (and also my previous chart in the previous post), yes, FL-B was engulfed, but price engulfed straight into FL-A. So the question is, do we considered target reached? If the answer is YES, then there is no PA for short...
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  • #3,659
  • Oct 28, 2017 1:38pm Oct 28, 2017 1:38pm
Quoting Fxyogi
{image} This chart is in puzzle format . If you can solve you will get a key . That's all i can do. Don't ask more.
This informations are to expensive.....but i can say.....this is a QM as a reaction on HTF QM
Meeee
  • #3,660
  • Nov 1, 2017 4:04am Nov 1, 2017 4:04am
hi
thanx mr if for share your knowledge with us. every where i searched but i cant find anything about( MPL )LEVELS CAN ANY BODY GUIDE ME HOW WE CAN DETERMINE THIS LEVELS?
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