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Technical Analysis and a few charts to ponder

  • #61
  • Sep 20, 2006 11:47am Sep 20, 2006 11:47am
Not always Neil, that was just to show you their origins and to give you some insight. Many times I just see them in the 4HR charts. I am always drawing lines and looking for them.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #62
  • Sep 21, 2006 3:36am Sep 21, 2006 3:36am
Quoting FXopportunist
As we would expect the dollar is showing weakness coming into the expected rate hold. The price channels are telling the story. If they fed statements follow the technicals we should see the euro reaching the top of the price channels and conversely the franc to the bottom. the following charts have some price channel target in both directions in case the FOMC surprises the markets with a hawkish statement. We all know the fed rules.
Looks like you called this right here.
  • #63
  • Sep 21, 2006 7:37am Sep 21, 2006 7:37am
A nice reaction to the 4HR price channels at the 1.2450 Franc target.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #64
  • Sep 21, 2006 7:40am Sep 21, 2006 7:40am
Here is my pound 4HR just for Neil.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #65
  • Sep 21, 2006 7:59am Sep 21, 2006 7:59am
Quoting FXopportunist
Here is my pound 4HR just for Neil.

Thanks FX, I think I had something similar.

Powerful stuff.

Neil
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  • #66
  • Sep 21, 2006 12:25pm Sep 21, 2006 12:25pm
Well, time to talk about the possibility of a trend change. Sometimes the charts start to show signs of reversal behavior. The Franc charts are a perfect example. When they do, I start looking for price action channel correllations goin the other way. If you look back at post #63, I added some bearish price channel lines that I though were a possibilty. As you can see it called today's noon reverse almost to the pip. Yes, I am amazed too. Because, obviously, this newbeearish price channel is valid I have highlighted the lines in red. Here is the current 4HR Franc
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #67
  • Sep 21, 2006 12:31pm Sep 21, 2006 12:31pm
The Euro vs. USD is the other half of my puzzle in determining the trend of the dollar has changed. At this point, we are at the topside of the bearish price channels. I have added the beginings of some euro bull channels that already have nice correllations. I will be watching for a solid close above the bear channel to consider a trend change possibility valid.
Here is my Euro 4HR
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #68
  • Sep 22, 2006 2:34am Sep 22, 2006 2:34am
With the trend change would it be fair to say that a pull back to 1.2700 and then a retrace into the channel would confirm the trend or is there more too it?

Thanks.
  • #69
  • Sep 22, 2006 2:44am Sep 22, 2006 2:44am
BTW I just discovered "equidistant channel" on MT4, good for drawing parralel lines. You probably onto it, but just in case.
  • #70
  • Sep 22, 2006 5:17am Sep 22, 2006 5:17am
As I see you´re inspired on Gann.
let me ask. Do you select an important high and low, draw a 45 angle line and then draw paralel lines of it?
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #71
  • Sep 22, 2006 5:23am Sep 22, 2006 5:23am
Hello Minute,
Trend is one of those relative things to me. When I say trend change I am talking about my 4HR world. I should have probably said that. In the last post I mentioned that in order for me to consider this a trend change, the Euro would have to have a close outside the bearish price channel which it has. The Franc has already quickly hit its target on its new bearish price channel. Here is the 4 HR Franc
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #72
  • Sep 22, 2006 5:24am Sep 22, 2006 5:24am
Here is a close up of the 4 HR Franc
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #73
  • Sep 22, 2006 5:34am Sep 22, 2006 5:34am
Quoting minute
With the trend change would it be fair to say that a pull back to 1.2700 and then a retrace into the channel would confirm the trend or is there more too it?

Thanks.
Hello Minute,

Ya know, I just don't like to predict. For one, I am just no darn good at it
I just try to look for correllations where there could be a reaction and try to profit from it. I never know what is gonna happen when the price hits one of these lines. I am just watching to see if there is an opportunity there.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #74
  • Sep 22, 2006 5:36am Sep 22, 2006 5:36am
Quoting minute
BTW I just discovered "equidistant channel" on MT4, good for drawing parralel lines. You probably onto it, but just in case.
Yes please!, I play with MT4 sometimes and I love new toys. PM it to me.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #75
  • Sep 22, 2006 5:38am Sep 22, 2006 5:38am
Quoting Tragapips
As I see you´re inspired on Gann.
let me ask. Do you select an important high and low, draw a 45 angle line and then draw paralel lines of it?
Hello, Tragapips,

I don't use any specific angle I just use the projection angle that seems to have consistent correllations. While the angles vary, I am sure there is some that are more prominant than others. Show us what you use.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #76
  • Sep 22, 2006 8:29am Sep 22, 2006 8:29am
Here is my 4HR euro tech for the end of the week. We'll see how it plays out next week, the end of the 3rd quarter. Will it be mild or wild?
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #77
  • Sep 22, 2006 8:31am Sep 22, 2006 8:31am
A close up of the euro chart
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #78
  • Sep 22, 2006 8:42am Sep 22, 2006 8:42am
Here is my 4HR pound
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #79
  • Sep 22, 2006 8:44am Sep 22, 2006 8:44am
Pound 4 HR close up
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #80
  • Sep 22, 2006 9:08am Sep 22, 2006 9:08am
Not much of a Yen guy but there are some interesting correllations here
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
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