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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,721
  • Oct 18, 2017 10:57am Oct 18, 2017 10:57am
Quoting zznbrm
{quote} You follow your entry rules. When you establish there is significant momentum in one direction you could go through your entry rules: 1) Do I have zero active trades? 2) Am I inside the session (London/NY) that I trade? 3) Is the upward/downward momentum above/below my reference point? 4) Is there still room to go before we hit the average range for this session? 5) Is the calendar free of major news in the near future? If you answer "yes" to all questions, then you open a new trade. You've done your research...you know there is an edge...

Hi ZZ,
I believe you have something similar to CP's influx indicator developed. I don't trade tick charts so I have not bothered looking into the hype around this money flow influx method that CP uses. Curious if you are willing to share
1) any success stories with this influx method?
2) what is the underlying logic you used?
3) are you open to sharing code snippets to point my research in any direction.

I personally don't believe it is possible to build such a tick based indicator in MT4 due to limited tick charting capabilities within MT4. Appreciate a y feedback related to your experience with this indicator. I do t think any mt4 broker would support a 6 pip a day scalp trades in the long run.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,722
  • Oct 18, 2017 11:26am Oct 18, 2017 11:26am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Hi ZZ, I believe you have something similar to CP's influx indicator developed. I don't trade tick charts so I have not bothered looking into the hype around this money flow influx method that CP uses. Curious if you are willing to share 1) any success stories with this influx method? 2) what is the underlying logic you used? 3) are you open to sharing code snippets to point my research in any direction. I personally don't believe it is possible to build such a tick based indicator in MT4 due to limited tick charting capabilities within...
Let me save you some time...all those questions were already answered in his thread /assorted indicators...

Regarding those 6 pips, I believe that was just an example or should i say a potential minimum per day. I don't think cp has a strict rule of n numbers of pips per day. Sometimes it's 100 pips, another time only 10 or 6, if you will. Everybody wants to take as much as market gives them and everybody loses, only as much as they control...
The biggest risk is not taking a risk.
  • #1,723
  • Oct 18, 2017 11:34am Oct 18, 2017 11:34am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote}...Curious if you are willing to share 1) any success stories with this influx method? 2) what is the underlying logic you used? 3) are you open to sharing code snippets to point my research in any direction...
Hi V,

I believe zznbrm has shared the indi. He's a quality member and has been generous with his sharing. I do not speak for him, but I believe the code/methodology is based on the "ZeroLagMACD". It is also theorized, not confirmed, that CP is "abcdefg" on another forum site that provides custom coded indicators per request. Please feel free to share any findings you deem relevant or helpful. Here is the indi as originally posted by zzbrm:

Cheers
BTS
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Influx-New.mq4   3 KB | 675 downloads
  • #1,724
  • Oct 18, 2017 12:11pm Oct 18, 2017 12:11pm
Quoting ataata
{image} Are this dimensions we are talking about?
this post seems like have a reasonable approach: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post10394466
As Above, So Below
  • #1,725
  • Oct 18, 2017 12:28pm Oct 18, 2017 12:28pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Hi ZZ, I believe you have something similar to CP's influx indicator developed. I don't trade tick charts so I have not bothered looking into the hype around this money flow influx method that CP uses. Curious if you are willing to share 1) any success stories with this influx method? 2) what is the underlying logic you used? 3) are you open to sharing code snippets to point my research in any direction. I personally don't believe it is possible to build such a tick based indicator in MT4 due to limited tick charting capabilities within...
leppozdrav and BadTunaSalad have already responded to your questions. But I'll add:

- I don't trade tick charts either. I set out to try to create an indicator in MT4 with results similar to what I'd seen posted. I took it as a challenge...and I think I got pretty close.
- You are right...it is a little more challenging doing tick charts in MT4...so I used 1-second charts...close enough for my purposes.
- As stated, it used a Zero Lag MACD where the MA "period" is not a number of bars/ticks but a time span. For example, compare the average price for the last 10 seconds to the average price for the last 10 minutes and plot the difference. Like I said...I think I got pretty close. But who knows...so many indicators are based upon moving averages.
- No success stories really. I created the indicator, threw it on some charts...but soon realized it was not going to help my system any.
- I'd never scalp like this using MT4. I prefer broker APIs and FIX.

So many folks are a little too obsessed with the details of The Riddler's system. I feel that is a mistake. It should not be about trying to replicate how The Riddler trades...it should be about applying the patterns that are used by many successful traders. I use many of these same concepts: momentum above/below a reference point/line, set entry rules, set exit rules, keep losses small let profits run, etc.

Thanks...VEEFX...I've enjoyed your contributions.
  • #1,726
  • Oct 18, 2017 1:37pm Oct 18, 2017 1:37pm
Quoting zznbrm
You've done your research...you know there is an edge in every rule
Love it! So obvious and probably overlooked. The edge of any system is a symbiosis of all its individual rules of engagement.
I always thought my cooking was amazing when the stars aligned and the moon was out. It turns out the ingredients all blended well together and the timing was excellent.

Quoting zznbrm
So many folks are a little too obsessed with the details of The Riddler's CP's system. I feel that is a mistake. It should not be about trying to replicate how The Riddler trades...it should be about applying the patterns that are used by many successful traders.
BOOM! Thank you for saying it, again i totally agree with this.
  • #1,727
  • Oct 18, 2017 1:44pm Oct 18, 2017 1:44pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote}we are after efficient trades under momentum.
Theres that word again
  • #1,728
  • Edited Oct 19, 2017 10:19am Oct 18, 2017 1:59pm | Edited Oct 19, 2017 10:19am
Quoting zznbrm
{quote} leppozdrav and BadTunaSalad have already responded to your questions. But I'll add: - I don't trade tick charts either. I set out to try to create an indicator in MT4 with results similar to what I'd seen posted. I took it as a challenge...and I think I got pretty close. - You are right...it is a little more challenging doing tick charts in MT4...so I used 1-second charts...close enough for my purposes. - As stated, it used a Zero Lag MACD where the MA "period" is not a number of bars/ticks but a time span. For example, compare the average...
Thanks bro.i have attributed a lot of my chart watching days to your symbol and timeframe flipping scripts. For hours and days and weeks, i would constantly visualize the entire currency market movement picture in my head to truly understand how markets function. I used everything I watched into my automation so thank you for sharing such wonderful tools. You, 7bit and Hanover simply rock !
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,729
  • Oct 18, 2017 3:16pm Oct 18, 2017 3:16pm
Quoting BadTunaSalad
{quote} Hi V, I believe zznbrm has shared the indi. He's a quality member and has been generous with his sharing. I do not speak for him, but I believe the code/methodology is based on the "ZeroLagMACD". It is also theorized, not confirmed, that CP is "abcdefg" on another forum site that provides custom coded indicators per request. Please feel free to share any findings you deem relevant or helpful. Here is the indi as originally posted by zzbrm: Cheers BTS {file}
Thanks BTS. I will look further but really not a big fan of indicators. I don't like any strategy that is at the mercy of broker spreads/slippage/connectivity/latency. I am just a little dude with my tiny laptop using my smartphone to trade most of the time lol

MT4 will just not allow any strategy to be successful at the tick level. CP also confirmed it recently to my post. There is literally no freaking way for any indicator to mimic true money flow index in a retail trading environment. It's hokus pokus for CP or anyone to say an indicator could be developed based on price movements. Just my 2 cents from what I know about the currency markets. You need to work for a tier1 bank to truly understand money flows. Without that, it is just one's interpretation of what they see on charts....and boy! Traders love to tell story based on what they see on charts lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,730
  • Oct 18, 2017 3:27pm Oct 18, 2017 3:27pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} PipEasy had a fabulous post in the Millipede thread on what he considers compelling momentum via pressure building in a Coke bottle. Its worth reading.
from memory he said to close your trade if momentum fades within the first 5 minutes.
maybe not a bad idea to take every break-out trade with sufficient momentum being there and exit when momentum fades for small losses/wins and profit big when momentum continues.
you know how it is: 80% small wins/losses - 15% reasonable profits - 5% big profits.
  • #1,731
  • Oct 18, 2017 3:27pm Oct 18, 2017 3:27pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote}and 98% of strategies freely available on FF is junk.
Have tested 49 strategies so far. The next one has to work - good to know
  • #1,732
  • Oct 19, 2017 10:31pm Oct 19, 2017 10:31pm
The secret ingredient of the secret ingredient soup is........................ Kung Fu Panda
Nothing is special, your believe is what make anything (setup, system) special.
Just follow price, it will teach you it language.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=PCY797dGi-c&feature=youtu.be
  • #1,733
  • Oct 20, 2017 5:35am Oct 20, 2017 5:35am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} ... Alternatively you could read all of CrucialPoint's posts @ FF.
This is a great idea, and even better if there is a collection (pdf or microsoft word format, etc) of all of CP posts some where, so we can download & just add his new posts to it .... it will save some time ... i think it is difficult to get the old CP posts (if i am not wrong, there is a limit posts we can see from a traders posts, after we click on his profile). Any link or other information is welcome. Gracias Anticre !
I am failed,but i found 1,000 ways that won't work ...
  • #1,734
  • Oct 20, 2017 7:23am Oct 20, 2017 7:23am
Quoting despacito7
This is a great idea, and even better if there is a collection (pdf or microsoft word format, etc) of all of CP posts some where, so we can download & just add his new posts to it .... it will save some time ... i think it is difficult to get the old CP posts (if i am not wrong, there is a limit posts we can see from a traders posts, after we click on his profile). Any link or other information is welcome. Gracias Anticre !
I've sent you a PM.
  • #1,735
  • Oct 21, 2017 9:03pm Oct 21, 2017 9:03pm
hmm....has anyone connected the dots between 6D and Money Management?

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...hmentid=462469
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 55 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,736
  • Edited Oct 22, 2017 12:11pm Oct 21, 2017 10:23pm | Edited Oct 22, 2017 12:11pm
Quoting VEEFX
has anyone connected the dots between 6D and Money Management?
Unless I'm missing something, I don't think it's too difficult.

Looking at the graphic in your link, I see the 6 "dimensions" more as possible trading scenarios (but "dimensions" sounds more mysterious and sexy!). Scenario #1 is a buy trade where you win because you get both the direction and timing right; #2 is a buy trade where you get the direction right but timing wrong, by buying just prior to a retracement; #3 is a buy trade where you get the direction flat out wrong, by buying into a full-blown reversal. #4 thru #6 are the sell trade equivalents.

"the 6 dimensions is (sic) like gravity, it's there but no one can see it" = price moves as waves within waves, pretty much every student of the market knows that. Market scientists like Elliott and Prechter made a detailed study of it. Anyway, there are only 3 "dimensions" (continuation, retracement, reversal), the other 3 are 'created' by the trader's decision to buy or sell.

Now to address your MM query.........

Stoplosses
Scenarios #2 (and #5) can be particularly frustrating -- you get stopped out, after which the major move continues in your desired direction -- and you wish you'd used wider stops! But then you encounter a #3 (or #6) where a tighter SL reduces your loss, and hence improves your overall bottom line, so you're grateful for its tightness.

Hence correct placement of SL is important:
"This ratio DOES NOT APPLY if your system has taken into account the 6 dimensions" = if your analysis is capable of telling you where you are within the price wave.

RR
The math in the linked graphic is incorrect -- a win/loss of 33% / 66% is 1:2, not 1:3. It also makes the assumption that you'll encounter each of the 6 scenarios equally frequently, which is almost certainly likely to be false (the "This ratio DOES NOT APPLY...." quote above). However, if it were true, you'd need an (average) RR of 2 to break even with a win rate of 33% -- this is true for ANY method.

Position sizing
However, for me MM is not about SL or RR -- these are determined by your exit strategy -- MM is about position sizing, i.e. how much of your account you'll put at risk on the next position. Again, the following necessarily applies to ALL methods: unless you have bona fide statistical evidence of serial correlation, i.e. the outcome of one position affects the outcome of the next -- or similarly you have evidence that one type of setup produces a statistically better result than another, and therefore warrants a higher bet -- then varying bet/position size is merely playing a lucky game of hit or miss.
_______________________

Incidentally….. I've spent part of the weekend reading a good number of CP's posts. I believe I know WHAT he's doing, but not HOW (understandably, he doesn't want to share that). He is simply momentum trading on tick, or high frequency, data (but then makes it sound mysterious and sexy with his parallels to pi, cheetahs, dropping eggs, etc). Assuming a bona fide edge, if you can find (for example) 10 valid setups per day, then you're going to grow your account massively faster than a trader who finds (only) 10 valid setups per week; the biggest hurdle is that the shorter the trade horizon, the higher (relatively) the transaction costs. CP says that he doesn't use conventional TA or FA; he merely "follows" price -- in industry jargon, that is momentum-based scalping. The edge comes from having the analysis needed to determine which "dimension" you're encountering, which is in reality whether price is more likely to continue, retrace temporarily, or reverse. Nothing too mysterious or revolutionary there.

I know a few institutional traders who achieve exactly that by examining swings through the lens of volume, market profile and/or OFA/footprint/bookmap charts. At the end of the day, the only real 'secret' is that markets move due to order volumes at price levels, hence CP (assuming he's as successful as he claims) must be effectively achieving much the same thing, albeit by using a different set of tools, and -- given that he's figured it out for himself, in his own way, rather than being taught by bank traders -- he views it through a different set of lenses.
  • #1,737
  • Oct 22, 2017 3:11am Oct 22, 2017 3:11am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Unless I'm missing something, I don't think it's too difficult. Looking at the graphic in your link, I see the 6 "dimensions" more as possible trading scenarios (but "dimensions" sounds more mysterious and sexy!). Scenario #1 is a buy trade where you win because you get both the direction and timing right; #2 is a buy trade where you get the direction right but timing wrong, by buying just prior to a retracement; #3 is a buy trade where you get the direction flat out wrong, by buying into a full-blown reversal. #4 thru #6 are the sell trade...
Thanks David. I was hoping you would respond as you are indeed the de facto guru when it comes to having a deep understanding of MM. In my screenshot I was puzzled by how MM can bring "balance to this matrix". The only way that I could think of is not via Position Sizing but Position/Trade Management i.e partial exits @1L etc. You are spot-on on the WHAT vs the HOW. For discretionary strategy, it makes sense to only focus on the WHAT. HOW becomes just a guess work and adds no value to our own trading style. Most automated systems fail and most discretionary systems won't work if handed over to us by profitable traders. Quite the conundrum lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,738
  • Oct 22, 2017 7:25am Oct 22, 2017 7:25am
It's 5am here and I spent the entire night running a reasonability test via my automation to validate the "Buy in Buy Hemisphere" and "Sell in Sell Hemisphere" theory. In essence, Buy if UP and Sell if Down.

Trend Following / Breakout - Buy if Up, Sell if Down
CounterTrend / Bounce - Sell if Up and Buy if Down (reversion to mean)
using my own trend definition for last 3 months (July, Aug and September)

Objective: By each timeframe, which type of signal (TF or CT) would yield more NET pips at the end of 3 months

Exhibit A: EU
Exhibit B: GU
Exhibit c: GJ
Exhibit D: All 28 pairs

Outcome: Just toss a f*cking coin LMAO
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Staying in my lane...
  • #1,739
  • Oct 22, 2017 7:42am Oct 22, 2017 7:42am
Quoting VEEFX
It's 5am here and I spent the entire night running a reasonability test via my automation to validate the "Buy in Buy Hemisphere" and "Sell in Sell Hemisphere" theory. In essence, Buy if UP and Sell if Down. Trend Following / Breakout - Buy if Up, Sell if Down CounterTrend / Bounce - Sell if Up and Buy if Down (reversion to mean) using my own trend definition for last 3 months (July, Aug and September) Objective: By each timeframe, which type of signal (TF or CT) would yield more NET pips at the end of 3 months Exhibit A: EU Exhibit B: GU Exhibit...
Would you please elaborate on what you've done exactly?

BTW: CP wrote that you can establish a buy/sell hemisphere wherever you want. Thus, I've thought I just could buy if the last candle was bullish and sell if the last candle was bearish. The results was just the same - 50/50.

The general problem with the buy/sell hemisphere is imho that the border of the hemisphere is always lagging (e.g. using a SMA). Thus, you'll always lose money if prize reverses ...
  • #1,740
  • Oct 22, 2017 8:10am Oct 22, 2017 8:10am
Quoting VEEFX
It's 5am here and I spent the entire night running a reasonability test via my automation to validate the "Buy in Buy Hemisphere" and "Sell in Sell Hemisphere" theory. In essence, Buy if UP and Sell if Down. Trend Following / Breakout - Buy if Up, Sell if Down CounterTrend / Bounce - Sell if Up and Buy if Down (reversion to mean) using my own trend definition for last 3 months (July, Aug and September) Objective: By each timeframe, which type of signal (TF or CT) would yield more NET pips at the e
nd of 3 months Exhibit A: EU Exhibit B: GU Exhibit...

You are moving closer to find your edge.

By trading all non-exotic 28 symbols you are actually keeping winners and losers both with you. So drawdown issue will not threaten you.
Loser pay for the winners who pay for the intermediaries like brokers in form of fees, spreads, slippage and manipulations done through MT4 plug-ins.

Now look for a genuine retail broker whose spreads and slippages exceed not more than 5%. So for every win you will be sharing 5% with the intermediaries.
You will have 20 chances to lose if you fail to find your winning edge.

If you use bucket shops (or market makers disguised as ECN or STP brokers) you will end up paying 30% as their fees. You will have maximum of 4 chances.

I did this manually for years but by screen watching. This never failed me. Money management - when to increase/reduce lots - and patience to wait for big hits after 30 hits triggered by Trailing Point (locking small profits) with No Stop Loss. In doing so I found my MONEY MANAGEMENT edge but unfortunately screen-watching took a toll on my health.
I am now in the process of transferring my discretionary way of trading to an EA. By all accounts it looks like it's doable. Depends on the skills of a coder.

Timing of identifying regular cycle pattern of symbols volatility is the key. When the ratio of open trades (adverse) is half or less than that of closed trades (favourable), close the cycle.

Returns will not match those of who can acquire Direction edge. But you won't be a loser. You have to provide margins for 28 symbols and margin calls will not be there.
If you become selective about symbols, then you are vulnerable to random moves.
Practice makes a person perfect
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