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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,681
  • Oct 16, 2017 3:25am Oct 16, 2017 3:25am
Could a "professional" please help me out here, because I haven't got a clue what is going on with this thread!
  • #1,682
  • Edited 4:44am Oct 16, 2017 3:57am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting DemoForever
Could a "professional" please help me out here, because I haven't got a clue what is going on with this thread!
Tell me the answer if you find it. Alternatively you could read all of CrucialPoint's posts @ FF.
  • #1,683
  • Oct 16, 2017 5:08am Oct 16, 2017 5:08am
Quoting ataata
I will use this forum because I see that a lot of respectfull members discuss here, including CP. What is your opinion about 6D - 6 dimensions in trading which CP mentioned here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...27#post3660327 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...58#post3672458 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...84#post3688384 As CP wrote we could find 6 Dimension in every system. So what is your opinion about this topic? CP maybe you could give us some additional hints....
Trading is subjective and no two people can trade the same. CP isn't giving hints to enable someone to replicate what he does but to use the sound principles that he uses to formulate your own trading plan.

In terms of the 6 dimensions, he also talked about hemisphere here https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...=215432&page=3 which is all linked.

First define your buy and sell hemisphere by whatever means you choose - moving average, daily open, or whatever indicator you decide.

To put it very simply;

when price is in your buy hemisphere it can go up, down or sideways (bullish, bearish, neutral). You need to define what is bullish, bearish or neutral by whatever means you choose (visually, price, indicator, line, moving average etc.)
when price is in your sell hemisphere it can go up, down or sideways (bullish, bearish, neutral). You need to define what is bullish, bearish or neutral.

Now CP states that only two of the 6 dimensions are profitable which he calls 2P;

Price is in your defined buy hemisphere and you have defined it as bullish = profitable (a higher chance of being profitable, here is your edge)
Price is in your defined buy hemisphere and you have defined it as bearish = unprofitable (a higher chance of being unprofitable)
Price is in your defined buy hemisphere and you have defined it as neutral = unprofitable (a higher chance of being unprofitable)
Price is in your defined sell hemisphere and you have defined it as bearish = profitable (a higher chance of being profitable, here is your edge)
Price is in your defined sell hemisphere and you have defined it as bullish = unprofitable (a higher chance of being unprofitable)
Price is in your defined sell hemisphere and you have defined it as neutral = unprofitable (a higher chance of being unprofitable)
  • #1,684
  • Oct 16, 2017 5:30am Oct 16, 2017 5:30am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Tell me the answer if you find it. Alternatively you could read all of CrucialPoint's posts @ FF.
Now you know what questions coming next! Is CrucialPoint a "Professional" trader
  • #1,685
  • Oct 16, 2017 5:33am Oct 16, 2017 5:33am
Quoting DemoForever
{quote} Now you know what questions coming next! Is CrucialPoint a "Professional" trader
Although I'm not a professional, I think yes - he is.
  • #1,686
  • Oct 16, 2017 5:56am Oct 16, 2017 5:56am
Quoting ataata
What was here so interesting? {image}
I found the Entry & Exit Accuracy stats to be interesting
  • #1,687
  • Oct 16, 2017 6:11am Oct 16, 2017 6:11am
Quoting Ghost Walker
Something to think about Discipline will take you where you want to go and discipline will pay you according to what you give, GW
Totally agree.
Basic successful system consists of mainly 2 ingredients: technical part (anything related with the right entry and exit) and psychological part (correct application of the technical edge). The biggest portion of psychological edge is made of discipline, which is basically controlling the emotions, patience, strictly following the system rules etc.
More complicated systems have additional 3rd ingredient, which is trade management (hybrid of some technical skills and psychology). This includes averaging down, snowballing, booking partial profits or or taking partial losses while still running the trade(s), etc.
I remember CP also discussing the importance of discipline to some extend somewhere in his posts (possible in my philosophy thread).

One of my favorite trading quotes: The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
As Above, So Below
  • #1,688
  • Oct 16, 2017 6:52am Oct 16, 2017 6:52am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Anyways... There are only 2 outcomes (Roulette, Coin tossing or FOREX): A) Divergence away from the mean B) Reversion toward the mean {image}
What is the role of the boundary, and how is it defined?
  • #1,689
  • Oct 16, 2017 6:55am Oct 16, 2017 6:55am
Quoting ataata
What was here so interesting? {image}
I just woke up. I will try to find time later today and give my understanding of 6 Dimensions. One word...he is stating the Obvious that we all know but cannot quantify with a methodical approach. He has found the approach that every moderately seasoned trader already knows...Thanks for saving my post. Please think what that means in the screenshot.please think about the difference between trade performance and a account performance. Please think about a price line chart, trade performance chart and equity curve chart. Its obvious what we all see every day with every trade with every account growth or blow up.

Later...
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,690
  • Edited 11:08pm Oct 16, 2017 7:03am | Edited 11:08pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I just woke up. I will try to find time later today and give my understanding of 6 Dimensions. One word...he is stating the Obvious that we all know but cannot quantify with a methodical approach. He has found the approach that every moderately seasoned trader already knows...Thanks for saving my post. Please think what that means in the screenshot.please think about the difference between trade performance and a account performance. Please think about a price line chart, trade performance chart and equity curve chart. Its obvious what we...
Also, there was one post of CP which i recall reading years ago in which he tells us he can evaluate success of any system in less than 30 mins. Does anyone have this post? Its all connected. One HAS to know what works and what doesn't just by looking at trading stats. That post really resonated with me. Based on that philosophy, you .can avoid wasting time with BACKTESTING, avoid reliance on biased historical data. Its all connected. Somehow he has come up with an (charting?) approach to systematically or mentally scope out the 6 dimensions that define the fundamental nature of any trade or trading system. In the same post he talks fabulously about winrate of more or less 50% and why such traditional coin flip type strategy don't work in the long run.

Also connected is the 3 phases of trend definition. There is one post of CP on accummulation/consolidation/exhaustion. It's all connected ! I had posted earlier, my way of trend definition into phases I.e. Reversal, reversal following. Continuation, Continuation Following...that's four in uptrend and 4 in downtrend. This is so elemental that we see everywhere in everything. CP is able to understand it all in a far superior manner and connect the dots that most of us cannot.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,691
  • Oct 16, 2017 7:24am Oct 16, 2017 7:24am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Also, there was one post of CP which i recall reading years ago in which he tells us he can evaluate success of any system in less than 30 mins. Does anyone have this post?
This?
  • #1,692
  • Oct 16, 2017 7:25am Oct 16, 2017 7:25am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Also, there was one post of CP which i recall reading years ago in which he tells us he can evaluate success of any system in less than 30 mins. Does anyone have this post?
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...91#post3623491
  • #1,693
  • Oct 16, 2017 7:26am Oct 16, 2017 7:26am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} This?
Haaa... my life story with trading... always late on the entries....
  • #1,694
  • Edited 11:13pm Oct 16, 2017 7:32am | Edited 11:13pm
I have mentioned this several times now. Those who are researching CP are doing it the wrong way. Don't read his posts like a text book or a Rubix Cube puzzle. I have yet to read most of his recent posts. Read one and then fully understand and absorb the message he is trying to convey before moving on to the next. Each post is a building block with deep (some with very deep) principles.

Let the understanding come to you first. I have yet to read any of his cheetah and gazelle posts and yet i researched and posted one yesterday that Cheetah has a strike rate of only 50% and majority of the times he fails in catching the prey and even after catching it, there are other predators who could take it away. It is so related with trading. He has to catch his prey in 30 seconds before burn out...I.e. His influx indicator will most likely work only on tick and portion of M1 candle to take his trade to 2P dimension I.e trade without a retrace.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,695
  • Edited 11:20pm Oct 16, 2017 7:35am | Edited 11:20pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} This?
Yes sir! Thank you. Now please pull the one that has his exit / scaling out strategy. It's also based on dimensions which ensures his trades reach to 2p

Regarding my comment on "its not rocket science" before CP left, reverse engineering is not that hard...of software and of trading systems. What is almost impossible imo is to reverse engineer a trader. It is impossible to replicate CP's performance, his research, his thought process and his overall experience. For folks who are trying to become like CP, you just cannot !

I think he refers to "decision tree" if I recall correctly. of price reaches x then exit 50% or whatever type exit decision making
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,696
  • Oct 16, 2017 7:52am Oct 16, 2017 7:52am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote}Now please pull the one that has his exit / scaling out strategy. Its also based on dimensions which ensures his trades reach to 2p
Then probably this one?

I agree with you - it won't be possible to fully replicate his system since there are still some parts (especially exit strategies, MM, etc.) missing. However, I think that the posts (if linked correctly) may give a hint on how a trader could be successful.
  • #1,697
  • Oct 16, 2017 9:05am Oct 16, 2017 9:05am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Although I'm not a professional, I think yes - he is.
Here's one for you. Just say your broker rings you up one day giving you some advice on how to trade your 2k account. He would probably tell you to day trade using 1 minute charts and full lots to maximize your profits right? Is there any "Professional" trader out there trading like this?
  • #1,698
  • Edited 8:13pm Oct 16, 2017 9:56am | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting VEEFX
I have mentioned this several times now. Those who are researching CP are doing it the wrong way. Don't reach his posts like a text book or a puzzle. I have yet to read most of this posts. Read one and then fully umderstand the message he is trying to convey before moving on to the next. Each post is a building block! Let the understanding come to you first.
FWIW I totally agree with this.

IMHO, the idea that the market is a math-based puzzle that needs to be cracked is, at best, one of many possible perspectives; and at worst, misleading. Everybody (including me!) ideally wants a simple, robust, user-friendly, one-size-fits-all solution, because that would reduce the uncertainty and stress that is inherent in trading. A puzzle that can be solved solely and completely by math also potentially allows for some automation, allowing the trader to distance himself a little more from the personal, and self-critical, part of the execution process.

On the one hand....... markets are driven by bank and institutional agendas, news, macroeconomics, geopolitical events and other information that creates shifts in bullish or bearish sentiment; traders subsequently place orders, and it is these order volumes at given levels (aka "orderflow") that causes prices to move. At any point, the market consists of a mix of anonymous participants whose differing intentions can not be known by the retail trader; this mix differs from hour to hour, day to day, week to week (as author Mark Douglas describes it "every moment in the market is unique"). Then there are also 'once-in-a-lifetime' events (e.g. Brexit) that can create large scale ripple effects; and gradual evolutions (e.g. shifts in belief systems, nations' economics, technological logistics, etc, over time) that mean that the patterns of yesteryear are not as prevalent today (like alphaomega explains here), undermining the effectiveness of historical testing. Markets tend to self-correct toward any operations that threaten their (pseudo) zero sum nature, potentially causing further shifts in existing patterns. All of this forms the basis behind the argument for a qualitative or discretionary approach.

On the other hand....... crowd psychology and behavior is to some extent predictable, and potentially causes repeatable patterns -- especially at a micro level -- that are robust enough to be traded profitably year-in-and-out by a mechanical, or semi-mechanical, process. There are also belief systems that are (semi)universally applied, e.g. always placing stoplosses just outside the most recent swing point. Consistent, repeatable behavior can form market truisms or "constants", solid principles that form the basis behind the argument for a quantitative, rule-based approach.

Hence the market is both unpredictable and predictable, depending on when and how the trader chooses to look at it. The "math based puzzle" approach applies only to the extent that, and during the occasions while, predictability prevails. The late dancingphil (colorfully!) explains the shifts between fundamentally (less mathematically definable) and technically (arguably more predictable) generated behavior here. Copernicus talks about market "conditions" and "transitions" here, which I see as being a slightly different perspective but on much the same theme. I have often wrestled with similar ideas myself.
  • #1,699
  • Oct 16, 2017 10:26am Oct 16, 2017 10:26am
Trade whatever way you wish but never tell the next guy his way is faulty. That fault remains only in you with your quest for the best way.
  • #1,700
  • Oct 16, 2017 5:44pm Oct 16, 2017 5:44pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} what are the odds? cheers, k {image}
I should try this too ... this will be so fun ... thanks
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