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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,701
  • Edited Oct 17, 2017 12:42am Oct 16, 2017 11:09pm | Edited Oct 17, 2017 12:42am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} This is the only tool i know of that allows us tp measure accuracy of entries and exits...2 of the 5 main ingredients. MM, discipline and system are the other 3 for. CP. Could someone build this accuracy measurement tool in MT4. It would be too cool to have it.
.... when you tell me how this tool works ....
  • #1,702
  • Oct 17, 2017 4:04pm Oct 17, 2017 4:04pm
Just a test; Some of CP's logic applied on higher TF charts.

Based on modified Stochastics (in order to determine real momenta).

Won't reply to PMs.
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  • #1,703
  • Oct 17, 2017 5:54pm Oct 17, 2017 5:54pm
The logic:
Pick tops during downtrends, bottoms during uptrends.

A trend is built by long-term momentum that points in one direction. A trend can contain multiple exhaustion phases. Exhaustions are short-term momenta pointing in opposite direction than trend. Thus, a short-term momentum change during an exhaustion phase may be a good signal for a trend continuation (remember the twins). However, in the chart in my last post you see some bad signals. They occur due to the lag of the stochastic. The lag can be reduced by applying the strategy on a tick chart ...
  • #1,704
  • Edited 9:23pm Oct 17, 2017 8:16pm | Edited 9:23pm
Quoting AntiCre
The logic: Pick tops during downtrends, bottoms during uptrends. A trend is built by long-term momentum that points in one direction. A trend can contain multiple exhaustion phases. Exhaustions are short-term momenta pointing in opposite direction than trend. Thus, a short-term momentum change during an exhaustion phase may be a good signal for a trend continuation (remember the twins). However, in the chart in my last post you see some bad signals. They occur due to...
Thanks for sharing AntiCre. I have come to become fond of automated system engineering.

I immensely hate stok, rsi and any ossilator type indicator drivwn by price over time. I blew several accounts in my novice days of 2006/07 attempting any and every TA f any and obvious looking indicator I could find. I was such a noob hopping from indi to indi. They are all stupidly lagging no matter which chart you put them on. But please ignore what i just said ( as i don't use at TA indicators in my signals) and you have far superior understanding than me. please look into CP's commentary on failed system especially in this screenshot... how you will avoid taking every signal is a VERY IMPORTANT aspect of systemic (or manual) trading.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...91#post3623491

My EA generates more than 85K signals on each pair and on each timeframe in a Month (investigating if a point of reference exist making over 30 million "Candle Analysis" function calls.

After a rigorous filtration system, i get over 100 or so signals each week and most of these 100 or so are further ignored if a pair is allowed in the current session" how many floating positions i have using my max allotted margin and some other near-real time conditions...if equity grows, more margin becomes available, new positions are accepted in a fashion of production assembly line. The bad apples are quickly tossed out to free up used margin I.e. cut my losses short.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #1,705
  • Oct 17, 2017 10:14pm Oct 17, 2017 10:14pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} No. OHLC is not enough. Other data is required. {quote} Well now you are asking me for my trading secret {image} Identical Twins... they look exactly alike. But they are objectively and quantitatively significant. (So thus a bounce or a break)
AntiCre - Okay. I am admiting I still have a lot to read so perhaps i should stop posting here. Lol

In regards to this twin post, why would anyone consider breakouts to have same characteristics as bounce? I have done immense research in these two for years because almost every system can be considered either a breakout or a bounce off some level. How you come to this level is the "secret sauce" but breakouts ARE absolutely different than bounces. With enough practice, the feeling you get from watching bounce versus a breakout is also vastly different.

Breakouts are Action oriented
Bounces are Reaction oriented

Every Action has a every and opposite Reaction. (Newton's law... Its all connected and governed by the law of nature)

Every Bounce HAS to follow from a Breakout
Every Breakout HAS to foplow from a Bounce

Breakouts results in Acceleration of Price Movement
Bounce results in Deceleration of Price movement

Breakouts are more unpredictable than Bounces (imo)

Breakouts are more risky as we have to wait to determine if it is a takeout (most often after our stops are taken out)

Breakouts are herd mentality where pigs get slaughtered
Bounces are snipper mentality with known/limited risk if done correctly

Breakouts are more chaotic. Bounces are more disappointing.

A cheetah waiting patiently for a gazelle. If a gazelle gets a sniff, it bounces out of the scene of danger because it knows Cheetah got 20 seconds of horsepower to catch it's prey! Once the cheetah advances, its a damn breakout with immense force resulting in compelling momentum. Its all connected folks !

PipEasy had a fabulous post in the Millipede thread on what he considers compelling momentum via pressure building in a Coke bottle. Its worth reading.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,706
  • Edited 10:59pm Oct 17, 2017 10:36pm | Edited 10:59pm
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...73#post4887273

I am glad to read this...the closest you can come to is via trading events and that is also a hit or miss as best!

  1. The swings or shift of market condition from one to another is governed by Quantum physics and cannot be predicted. Which a lot of people are deluded into thinking that it can be predicted through mass behavior, supply/demand, government or economical.


And then I read this and i think I understand how a move can be measured the underlined below but I have no idea how to quantitatively measure or evaluate a fake bounce/breakout from a real one. Has anyone figured this out? If by "Quantitatively significant", he means in strength, force, distance, speed etc then yeah. I can understand that but if he is saying he can somehow prevent/avoid fakeouts, that would be something every trader would want LOL

  1. A move in any direction is governed by Newtonian physics and can be calculated quantitatively. A fake bounce or a fake breakout are objectively and quantitatively significant compared to a real bounce or break.


Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} - In order to determine a false breakout or bounce (before 'hindsight' takes place) is there certain data required to achieve this with? i.e. the data contained within ohlc charts...is this enough or is other data required for this (ticks, volume,...)? Most will look at it and say "it bounced of the 30ma, it bounce of supply, its a fake move due to stop hunt taking place..." Here, most of time, its hindsight taking place. I believe its possible to be 'tipped' as it is ocurring, allowing for a higher probability to go one way or the other, without all the other funky stuff, including hindsight. Or am i being naive? - What exactly is quantitatively significant between a false/real break/bounce? Speed, Acceleration,...?
Perhaps you have figured this out :-?
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,707
  • Edited 11:55pm Oct 17, 2017 11:40pm | Edited 11:55pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote}A cheetah waiting patiently for a gazelle. If a gazelle gets a sniff, it bounces out of the scene of danger because it knows Cheetah got 20 seconds of horsepower to catch it's prey! Once the cheetah advances, its a damn breakout with immense force resulting in compelling momentum. Its all connected folks ! PipEasy had a fabulous post in the Millipede thread on what he considers compelling momentum via pressure building in a Coke bottle. Its worth reading.
The key to trading a breakout is already built into the Cheetah through its design. A strategy to catch momentum must be designed to capitalise on a momentum event.....eg. create the trap first and configure it to address momentum only. If momentum is not maintained....you are out immediately with no food.

A Cheetah has faster acceleration and can maintain a faster velocity over a short time interval than a gazelle in straight line motion (momentum). A gazelle has greater endurance and can evade a direct linear attack. If we can't predict a breakout then the next best option is to wait for a breakout to actually occur as opposed to predicting it (eg. the gazelle starts running in proximity to the cheetah) and then allow the acceleration and velocity of the cheetah to catch the 'actual' moving event as opposed to the predicted event.

Convert this philosophy to breakout trading with your trap already designed and we have a principal that can be applied.

A breakout seen on a lower timeframe will extend a bar on the higher timeframe. How do we catch the gazelle when momentum is in action?

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Note that velocity is straight line motion. Diversion or evasion reduces average velocity over a linear measurement.
  • #1,708
  • Oct 18, 2017 1:17am Oct 18, 2017 1:17am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} The key to trading a breakout is already built into the Cheetah through its design. A strategy to catch momentum must be designed to capitalise on a momentum event.....eg. create the trap first and configure it to address momentum only. If momentum is not maintained....you are out immediately with no food. A Cheetah has faster acceleration and can maintain a faster velocity over a short time interval than a gazelle in straight line motion (momentum). A gazelle has greater endurance and can evade a direct linear attack. If we can't predict...
Nice illustration. C.

"How do we catch the gazelle when momentum is in action?" Good thought-provoking question ? You Aussies have some genetic power LOL

I don't think CP uses limit orders to trap the market for a potential breakout. To play breakouts or momentum, you HAVE to know when to arrive on the scene The only way i know of is to play around with events. The only way i know of tp catch a gazelle during momentum is in play is to play the momentum itself I.e. chase the fu*king price regardless of direction.

Upon watching some 20÷videos of cheetah chasing gazelles, i noticed gazelles run in a linear(spike) fashion initially and then after some 10 seconds or so start evading in a zigzag (wave) fashion. They also never use their horns to defend themselves during attsck.

Fascinating stuff but I doubt I want to be like cheetah and turn into a wuss and not defend my kill when hienna arrive. To me, that's like giving away profits to other traders. THAT IS WHY CP TARGETS ONLY 6 PIPS A DAY OR 30 NET PIPS PER WEEK and uses money mgmt (his 5th pillar) and disciple (his 4th pillar) to excel in this game !
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,709
  • Oct 18, 2017 1:53am Oct 18, 2017 1:53am
"A system that takes every signal of buy and sell is a failed system". This statement is the get out of jail free card for the "blagger". He shows his system but tells you that you don't take every signal."What signals do I take?" you ask." The answers are there if you look hard enough" he replies. Your now hooked.

Getting back to the first statement. Some systems absolutely 100% must take every trade or lose a large amount of their profits.
  • #1,710
  • Oct 18, 2017 2:59am Oct 18, 2017 2:59am
Quoting DemoForever
"A system that takes every signal of buy and sell is a failed system". This statement is the get out of jail free card for the "blagger". He shows his system but tells you that you don't take every signal."What signals do I take?" you ask." The answers are there if you look hard enough" he replies. Your now hooked. Getting back to the first statement. Some systems absolutely 100% must take every trade or lose a large amount of their profits.
This statement is kind of unclear to me. I'm not sure if it means that if you had an entry condition and you entered on every buy/sell signal regardless of trend or other context that that would be a filed system which seems quite obvious. But I had also thought that it might mean something else as in you don't take every "good" signal that comes along but the question then is what do you use to define whether it is a signal that should or should not be taken. And if this is the case why not just include the extra logic in the base entry lgoic itself.
  • #1,711
  • Oct 18, 2017 3:13am Oct 18, 2017 3:13am
Quoting DemoForever
"A system that takes every signal of buy and sell is a failed system". This statement is the get out of jail free card for the "blagger". He shows his system but tells you that you don't take every signal."What signals do I take?" you ask." The answers are there if you look hard enough" he replies. Your now hooked. Getting back to the first statement. Some systems absolutely 100% must take every trade or lose a large amount of their profits.
I think it all depends on how you made your system
some like to leave some room for discretion,
too much room for discretion can lead to frustation making excuses to enter/exit/modify as you go
some like it rigid, buy on ABC and sell on XYZ condition

what matters in the end is your win rate and risk reward
gamblers and poker players calls it EV (Expected Value)
EV = (% win x win amount) + (% loss x lost amount) if its turned out positive then you are good
do 10 trade I may lose it all
after 1000 trade if I keep doing my +EV trade I will be profitable

to know the winrate I do backtesting
IMHO this is where the real battle is (and the fun is LOL)
live trading is mostly just pressing button while keeping emotions as neutral as possible
have some idea, seeing some pattern keep on happening,
backtest thousands past trades,
get the winrate, count the EV
if not good enough
add some filters do couple thousand past trades again etc etc
until I get the satisfying result
figure out the money management
then do live trading

this is my AHA moment, by the time I got this, I don't hangout in FF much anymore,
except if some interesting post show up in FF calendar homepage

as for animals this dude here is my favorite
they've lived from dinosaour age and still to this day
best animal at waiting for prey if they ever evolve to have human intelligence no doubt they will excel at trading LOL
Attached Image
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #1,712
  • Edited 4:04am Oct 18, 2017 3:29am | Edited 4:04am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Nice illustration. C. "How do we catch the gazelle when momentum is in action?" Good thought-provoking question ? You Aussies have some genetic power LOL I don't think CP uses limit orders to trap the market for a potential breakout. To play breakouts or momentum, you HAVE to know when to arrive on the scene The only way i know of is to play around with events. The only way i know of tp catch a gazelle during momentum is in play is to play the momentum itself I.e. chase the fu*king price regardless of direction. Upon watching some 20÷videos...
Chasing every breakout and every trend (especially on the small TF's) is a SURE WAY to lose your money consistently!

When you apply mechanical approach without any discretion, you have to take every signal. This is mindless trading and basically leads to results which are completely random (expectancy per trade = ZERO - cost)!
If you do not apply any intelligence, and you do not account for the current situation - you are wasting your time with trading!

The situation is different every time (every moment in the market is unique)! Yes, the price always moves up and down, and similar patterns occur every day, every week, every month.....However, these patterns are not the same! They are only similar! If you measure the patterns, and examine all of their characteristics you will find that in the whole history of financial markets not even 2 patters are the same! (I actually challenge anyone to find 2 patterns which are exactly the same)
This is obvious even if you take only the most basic measurements. All patterns occur at different point in time and price, develop with different speed, and most importantly, the fundamentals behind are completely different.

If you want to play with momentum and trend - the first thing to do is to look for situations which deviate from the norm. (fat tails) You enter near the end of the fat tail, use tight stop, take a few quick points and forget about it! (look for another opportunity) This is stage 1 !

Stage 2 You have to look for failed patterns. Situations where the majority of traders expects some type of technical outcome, and this outcome does not materialize. The so called trapped traders. If you bet against them your probability of win is ALWAYS over 55% (often above 65%). If you can identify such situations correctly.

Stage 3 Combine fundamentals with technical patterns and crowd psychology. Again, look for the trapped traders. This is a lot more advanced approach which requires significant experience.

Stage 4 Understand the reflexive nature of the markets. Cause and effect. To apply this approach you have to have very good knowledge and understanding about stage 1, 2 and 3.

What is Stage 4? This is the stage everyone wants to reach, but only few actually do!

At any point in time and price there are significant levels above and below and current price. Every time when the current price approach one of these levels with a certain force and momentum, then a change in dynamics takes place!

In some situations the levels act as the starting points of new fat tails.
In other situations the levels act as strong resistance or support.

These levels are not your typical support and resistance levels! You cannot see these levels on the chart only with naked eye. Basically these levels are invisible for the majority of traders. These levels are derived with combination of natural math and statistics only on subconscious level. (I highly doubt that we can make a software to calculate these levels).

Trading successfully off these levels feels like you are the master of the universe (god mode)! You know in advance exactly the point at which the trend will accelerate or where the price will bounce.

Of course you never calculate these levels with perfect accuracy because there is no way to account for all important variables in a complex system such as the market. Inevitably you always miss something. But when you get really good at this, more often than not your calculation is very close. With small deviations, usually a few pips and several minutes.

In some days you get the levels correctly 9 out of 10 times.

In other days (when you are out of focus) nothing works and you get more losing trades. It's important to cut trading in days like this before you lose too much.
  • #1,713
  • Oct 18, 2017 4:11am Oct 18, 2017 4:11am
Attached Image
  • #1,714
  • Oct 18, 2017 4:29am Oct 18, 2017 4:29am
Quoting VincentGallo
{quote} This statement is kind of unclear to me. I'm not sure if it means that if you had an entry condition and you entered on every buy/sell signal regardless of trend or other context that that would be a filed system which seems quite obvious. But I had also thought that it might mean something else as in you don't take every "good" signal that comes along but the question then is what do you use to define whether it is a signal that should or should not be taken. And if this is the case why not just include the extra logic in the base entry...
Your confused, congratulations, so am i, that's what the "blagger"needs.

As for taking signals, you either have a system with defined entry and exit signals (mechanical) or you don't! Most people take the mechanical system and just start missing out signals for whatever reason takes their fancy on any particular day!
  • #1,715
  • Oct 18, 2017 4:39am Oct 18, 2017 4:39am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Nice illustration. C. "How do we catch the gazelle when momentum is in action?"
for me in cheetah vs gazelle illustration they are 2 play

gazelle detecting the momentum of cheetah start dashing ( this is where we can indentify the momentum) once the momentum appear we turn become the cheetah following the gazelle this cycle repeat
Closer To Dream
  • #1,716
  • Edited 6:20am Oct 18, 2017 5:32am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} Chasing every breakout and every trend (especially on the small TF's) is a SURE WAY to lose your money consistently!
Yep totally agree .... but the cheetah doesn't strike at every moving gazelle.

To predate on fat tails you need to be lurking where they occur....namely at points where price excursions are extreme and not characterized by normal volatility. The cheetah predates on moving outliers in the same way and not in the middle of the herd.

Furthermore, the more prescriptive you are in defining your momentum trap the better the result as we are after efficient trades under momentum. Allowing for momentum variability is a big no no..... as giving breathing room on momentum moves is incredibly inefficient and leads to low win rate and victims of failed breakouts.

A momentum trader needs to be very selective and incredibly efficient in the way they capture momentum.....I think that principle might be lost on most folk as they simply assume that say a Donchian break and an ATR trailing stop or a moving average cross with a flexible trail without little thought about the trade management leads to significant inefficiency.

Trend following is a more lenient style (with breathing room for normal volatility) but momentum trading is more like scalping in the rigorous way you need to strictly capture in your trap the momentum move itself and not the turbulence around it. I find that the prescriptive requirements of linear regression projections when trading a momentum move is perhaps the most efficient trade management application that can be applied. Go for straight lines rather than wavy ones when looking for efficiency in momentum moves......just like a cheetah is hoping for.

It is the straight line kill under momentum that makes a happy cheetah. When they zig and zag...the game is usually over :-)

Case in Point:
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The chart above illustrates momentum trades (arising from swing moves in a longer term trend) using the Standard Deviation Channel (SDC) that is used to strictly manage momentum trades with little breathing room.

B represents a longer term momentum move that commenced from 5th October with an entry on 17th October at 20:30 GMT.

A represents a shorter term momentum move that commenced from 12 Oct with an entry at 17th October at 20:30GMT.

Most trend traders apply more breathing room to trend trading whereby they seek to capture the entire trend move. These momentum moves are far more defined with less breathing room to simply focus on the momentum present in the swing. As a result the tighter you can define the volatility of momentum, the more aggressive your position sizing.

The trailing stop of each momentum move represents the 1.0 standard deviation of closing prices in the price series of each move and provides a quantitative boundary to define the momentum projection and where price action needs to be restricted within to allow for a continuance of the momentum in the series.

When price touches these trailing stops you are out of the move as the historical momentum has not been maintained but you will notice that you always get a better price than your initial stop as the trail is defined as a regression line that is parallel to historic volatility of the price series. What this does to your performance stats is lift the win rate but restrict your R:R ratio in a very efficient manner. It is this strict trade management in conjunction with trade activity that is undertaken in abnormal trending moves as opposed to taking every apparent momentum move that turns an average strategy into a solid performer even in this mean reverting environment we have had over the last 7 years or so.
  • #1,717
  • Oct 18, 2017 7:32am Oct 18, 2017 7:32am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Yep totally agree .... but the cheetah doesn't strike at every moving gazelle. To predate on fat tails you need to be lurking where they occur....namely at points where price excursions are extreme and not characterized by normal volatility. The cheetah predates on moving outliers in the same way and not in the middle of the herd. Furthermore, the more prescriptive you are in defining your momentum trap the better the result as we are after efficient trades under momentum. Allowing for momentum variability is a big no no..... as giving breathing...
Appreciate the chart and the explanation. We're there any other trading opportunity's on that chart and if so why did you not take them please?(not trying to catch you out).
  • #1,718
  • Oct 18, 2017 8:09am Oct 18, 2017 8:09am
Quoting DemoForever
{quote} Appreciate the chart and the explanation. We're there any other trading opportunity's on that chart and if so why did you not take them please?(not trying to catch you out).
There were probably many trading opps D......but I am just restricting my definition in that post to what works for me in my testing and just describing why I feel a linear attack on momentum is an efficient and effective way to tackle the problem bringing it back to CP's analogy with the cheetah.
  • #1,719
  • Oct 18, 2017 10:22am Oct 18, 2017 10:22am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} Chasing every breakout and every trend (especially on the small TF's) is a SURE WAY to lose your money consistently! When you apply mechanical approach without any discretion, you have to take every signal. This is mindless trading and basically leads to results which are completely random (expectancy per trade = ZERO - cost)! If you do not apply any intelligence, and you do not account for the current situation - you are wasting your time with trading! The situation is different every time (every moment in the market is unique)! Yes, the...
Thanks AlphaOmega. I have enjoyed reading your posts.
Step1 - it doesn't have to be quick pips. We can use end of elongated fat tails to determine overbought/oversold conditions and use them for swing trades. My MTF based automation leverages this quite well with decent accuracy. Most look for chat payterns (SR, SD etc) to find OB/OS conditions. I don't.... I focus on the conditions on HTF which result in OB/OS on LTF to reduce my risk exposure per trade.

Step2: I don't care much about it as it require reading charts but i have learnt a great deal from fellow traders on Skype who have far superior knowledge and understanding of how institutional traders trap retail traders. I hate starring at charts or it don't not jive well with my life style requirements of living a healthy and balanced life.

Step3: this relates to my manual trading style around fundamentals/events but lacks consistency and Max DD targets. Overall, i would not trade any other way as it offers the best Effort:Reward ratio for my life style. "I am the king and I want and expect markets to move when I arrive on the scene" is my mindset when I trade manually.

Step4: this needs a bit more discussion and evaluation as this aligns well with my automation driven with objectivity via quantitative and statistical analysis across 28 pairs, 9 timeframes and 4 universal trending phases in each (up or down) directions. That equates to 28x9x8 possible permutations/combinations (actually more but lets keep it simple for this post). With this approach, "These levels are not your typical support and resistance levels! You cannot see these levels on the chart only with naked eye. Basically these levels are invisible for the majority of traders. These levels are derived with combination of natural math and statistics only on subconscious level. (I highly doubt that we can make a software to calculate these levels)."....this seems possible in my automation but I got tp wait for 3 yrs at least to prove any merit whether i am on the right path or not.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,720
  • Oct 18, 2017 10:24am Oct 18, 2017 10:24am
Quoting VincentGallo
{quote} This statement is kind of unclear to me. I'm not sure if it means that if you had an entry condition and you entered on every buy/sell signal regardless of trend or other context that that would be a filed system which seems quite obvious. But I had also thought that it might mean something else as in you don't take every "good" signal that comes along but the question then is what do you use to define whether it is a signal that should or should not be taken. And if this is the case why not just include the extra logic in the base entry...
You follow your entry rules. When you establish there is significant momentum in one direction you could go through your entry rules:

1) Do I have zero active trades?
2) Am I inside the session (London/NY) that I trade?
3) Is the upward/downward momentum above/below my reference point?
4) Is there still room to go before we hit the average range for this session?
5) Is the calendar free of major news in the near future?

If you answer "yes" to all questions, then you open a new trade. You've done your research...you know there is an edge in every rule:

1) Your risk is under control...giving you room in case of big spikes against you (not really an edge...but important for high risk scalpers)
2) Based upon your research you know most movement for the pair is during London and New York sessions
3) You have chosen your momentum trigger and your reference point well. Based upon your research you know that when there is upward momentum above your reference point you have a better chance of success. Likewise for downward/below.
4) Based upon your research you know that once the average range for a session has been reached it is less likely for prices to continue to extend that range.
5) There is no sense having a trade open when unpredictable conditions are expected soon.

Once your trade is open you then transfer to your exit rules. You take what the market gives you...small losses and medium/large profits are your goal.
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