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Trading Made Simple

  • #82,561
  • Oct 17, 2017 1:34pm Oct 17, 2017 1:34pm
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} ... depends o how picky YOU are and how long you keep them. I´d say from 0-3. I prefer D1 .. 1-3 or 4 trades a week. {quote} Scorps trades london with m30 and h1 .. he´s doing well.


cheers for the reply.


Scorps, if you see this message ..can you please describe how you handle london open and frankfurt open?
  • #82,562
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:05pm Oct 17, 2017 2:05pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} cheers for the reply. Scorps, if you see this message ..can you please describe how you handle london open and frankfurt open?
Click on this link: https://www.forexfactory.com/thescorps then read through his posts, that is the easiest way to see how he trades.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #82,563
  • Oct 17, 2017 3:33pm Oct 17, 2017 3:33pm
Quoting kain775
Hello A question to emmanuel and also other experienced traders, How do you handle the London open [m30 or 1hr], today I observed two valid setups during London open. London open caused them to fluctuate near to their stop loss before eventually recovering and hitting TP. Is it advisable not trade London open or pull any trades you have before that? it seems that if you do pull trades or wait until London open is done you miss out on some setups.......

Which pairs are your trading? Post charts of the pairs you looked at today.

Like I said in one of my post made earlier this week, there are 5 fakey hours every day. Snarlyjack once said, there are 24 news candle in one day. This makes trading H1 very difficult. I don't know how much money people trading M30 and H1 make. I have seen more winning trades posted but have no idea the long term trade results as I have not seen any trading statements.

To trade H1 and M15, you have to do a lot more trades and almost on every day basis to really see real positive results. I no longer have the time to sit in front of my trading PC to trade intraday. Trading H4 and D1 are proven to be more profitable, therefore I refer more Position trading on D1 chart. I plan to do this more in 2018 and 2019 to try achieve my financial goal much easier.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,564
  • Oct 17, 2017 4:11pm Oct 17, 2017 4:11pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Just how many people took GC "strong Sell" signal here Nothing and I mean nothing indicating there is any reason to sell. Look at yellow boxes and yes its exact time you posted your chart. This is not criticism but objective unbias observation! that people should not look at any arrows by themselves! regards I just find it amusing how thousands posting here don't see the holes.You would of been -75pips in red had you took that "strong sell" {image}
Davit,

Thanks for your post here. This is good as I would be using this post explain a few things and to help newbies.

You should pay more attention to details what you see on charts posted and what written in posts.

Read my post carefully which I wrote: (added colours here for your ease of reading)
" TMS Monitor H4 closing in mins
if you look for TDI slope, there are a few opportunities and if these fits your trade plan, pulling the trigger would be easy.
"
More information below:

1) The TMS Monitor was developed in 2011 by FF member arbinka based on Big E' way of trading. The key components of Big E trading is the HA candles, the 5EMA and the TDI angle/slope 12-2 and 4-6 clock face.

2) The column TMS Monitor Recommendation is not a trade signal.

3) If you are interested to use this as a trading tool, you must go to arbinka's thread and read everything there. Make sure you pay attention to details when your read. It's important because most newbies make that same two(2) mistakes,
a) is the wrong TDI version which had been hard coded by arbinka.
b) using the Heiken Ashi instead of the Synergy APB.

Link to TMS Monitor thread: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=303347

4) You posted a GBPCAD H1 chart which shows another version of the TDI which has flaws in it. Hindsight is 20:20. Your H1 chart is full of market noise.
Those who did the London planning session with me on Sunday 1500 hour London time, will know that our trade plan for GBPCAD is to "Wait" status meaning no trade this week. We have two GBP crosses in our trade plan this week 42 Oct 16 to 20.
GBPAUD and GBPNZD is in the PLAN phases of our PLAN, BUILD and RUN,

.. will write more later to help others in this thread.

meantime, below is the updated TMS Monitor with a new H4 just open.
That last "Strong Sell" recommendation of the last post Oct 17 candle I placed an arrow where it took place.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMS Monitor Oct 17 H4 re GBPCAD 6bars.png Size: 54 KB


....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMS Monitor GBPCAD 18-10-2017 05-03-19.png Size: 59 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,565
  • Oct 17, 2017 4:42pm Oct 17, 2017 4:42pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} AUDUSD Oct 17 update: The retracement to the region between 0.7870 to 0.7845 turns out well and yesterday' intraday USDX show stronger USD so we may see this go lower today. My sell TP is now 0.7830 taking a full 1% profit on this trade. {image}

AU hit my TP 0.7830 and it bounce.

Question some may ask today: Is this level this Week' swing low and start to buy?
I look at USDX, EURUSD and EURAUD, for the composite answer.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 Oct 18 bounce.png Size: 46 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,566
  • Oct 17, 2017 5:11pm Oct 17, 2017 5:11pm
Nice divergence, lets see what tomorrow brings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: divergence.png Size: 58 KB
  • #82,567
  • Oct 17, 2017 5:26pm Oct 17, 2017 5:26pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Just how many people took GC "strong Sell" signal here Nothing and I mean nothing indicating there is any reason to sell. Look at yellow boxes and yes its exact time you posted your chart. This is not criticism but objective unbias observation! that people should not look at any arrows by themselves! regards I just find it amusing how thousands posting here don't see the holes.You would of been -75pips in red had you took that "strong sell" {image}
Lesson#2

One fundamental mistake which newbies and rookie traders make is that when they do not apply Big E' Post#647.

Instead of checking the next higher fimeframes - for example when they trade H4, they should know the short term trend which is the D1 and the longer term trend which is the W1.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD Week 42 POMO Oct 18.png Size: 83 KB


In the case of GBPCAD, if you are trading H4, you should have at least looked at the D1 and W1.

See H4 chart above with the W1 candles in background.

Do you see the W1 Inside Bar of week 41? What do that Mother Bar and Inside bar tell us?

Do you see recent price action and know where the support and resistance that Big E mentioned many times in his posts? What did Big E say about those BRN 00 price levels?

What about the TIMING, the trading hours for the pairs you chose to trade, Do you want to take a trade setup which is NY session close and face the low liquidity period of the Asian session?

Why trade H4 and then look at all the noise in H1? 90% of big candles will have retracement. Hindsight is 20:20 any rookie can easily say many correct things like 75pips floating loss due to retracement of a big candle. We all can see that after the fact. 75pips retracement and floating loss is nothing compared to weeks and months of floating losses of hundreds if not thousands of pips using small positions.

So what do professional traders do during the price retracements? Do we really know how banks trade? LOL.

Now back to the chart above, do you see a trend? Do you see chart pattern? Where are potential opportunities.

The big hole that I see here is that a rookie trader has his own beliefs end expects that others follow his beliefs blindly and use his trading template and a flawed coded weekly fibonacci pivots and also TDI indicator.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,568
  • Oct 17, 2017 5:31pm Oct 17, 2017 5:31pm
Quoting TrendRider86
Nice divergence, lets see what tomorrow brings {image}
I don't see there is "nice divergence". What I see are many small H4 candles.

if you trade by following arrows on your chart,

make sure the arrows are pointing in the same direction on 3 chart timeframes... H4>D1>W1.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,569
  • Oct 17, 2017 6:09pm Oct 17, 2017 6:09pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} AU hit my TP 0.7830 and it bounce. Question some may ask today: Is this level this Week' swing low and start to buy? I look at USDX, EURUSD and EURAUD, for the composite answer. {image}
What indicator are you using to mark your levels (dotted lines)?
Thanks
  • #82,570
  • Oct 17, 2017 6:11pm Oct 17, 2017 6:11pm
GBPCAD naked trading...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD Week 42 Head and Shoulders.png Size: 49 KB



and TMS chart below:

MC[3] breakout entry

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD Week 42 H1 Oct 18 TMS.png Size: 59 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,571
  • Oct 17, 2017 7:45pm Oct 17, 2017 7:45pm
Quoting rcbarlow
{quote} What indicator are you using to mark your levels (dotted lines)? Thanks

if you are referring to those dash lines, they are the Daily Open lines.
On any chart, seeing the Day open line is one way to see the Day candles OHLC. Also look at the W1 OHLC.

see this old post:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...50#post7853650

OHLC are also support and resistance when there is CONFLUENCE with other types of support & resistance methods, for example
- moving average are often use ad dynamic support & resistance,
- previous reversal swing highs / swing lows are also support & resistance,
- round numbers levels price levels 00 and 50 where there were previous price action PPA are also support & resistance,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,572
  • Oct 17, 2017 8:14pm Oct 17, 2017 8:14pm
Here is an example what some traders may called strong support.

What is really a strong support? I read this often in FF posts but no one has ever posted a clear definition of what strong Support or Resistance is.

A CONFLUENCE of Weekly Close, Weekly Low, 200EMA as dynamic support&resistance, PPA at BRN 1.6800

Note last week was a Doji candle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD Week 42 CONFLUENCE of SnR.png Size: 79 KB


My trade plan this week is to look for sell for GBPAUD and GBPNZD following the BPP done on Sunday.

A potential break to the low side can reach 1.6720 and 1.6600 region. The risk of a bullish pull back can go up to 1.7000. These are based on D1 chart technical analysis study.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,573
  • Oct 17, 2017 9:07pm Oct 17, 2017 9:07pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} I am starting to notice that H4 does seem to somewhat easier with less hassle. I take trades on m30/h1 and h4 atm, but would not rule out a complete transition to H4.... how much trades on average does H4 produce in a week, per pair

How many trades per week or how many trade opportunties per week?

First, currency pair selection, ... define those pairs you want to trade.
- How do you select the currency pairs to trade? some pairs like GBP crosses GBPAUD , GBPCAD and GBPNZD and GBPJPY pairs are very volatile wide range pairs, their weekly ATR is in excess of 400 pips/ You will need to have larger account deposit to trade these pairs to handle the larger stop loss using position sizing.

Second, define your trading hours.
- Do you want to be awake every 4 hour to check your charts for trades?
- if you have a full time day job, does it allow you to log into your trading computer to trade?
- if no, then do you consider using a trade manager to manage your trades? you need a computer with 24 hour access to the internet and your broker.

Third, having done the above, now you need to so the backtesting. Backtesting to determine the following:
- count the number of trade setups according to your own trading rules and trading hours,
- determine the entry and exit range in pips for those setups you have defined,
- from the entry and exit(SL), what should be the risk % and Position Size for every trade,
- from the entry, how do you manage the trades for exit (TP), what is your exit strategy.
Do you want to use R and R-Multiple management?
Do you want to use THV CaveManager EA as your trade manager? Or you prefer to use MPTM as your trade manager?
Do you prefer to trade with Multiple Entries?


After you have done your back-testing for the pairs and collected enough information, you can then start write your business plan. You know the number of trade opportunities and other important data. With these back test data, you can make your financial plan with SMART objectives. If you use, for example one year of your annual salary as your trading capital, you have to make a few important decisions with that large amount of money. I recommend traders should start a business with capital relative to their full time job annual salary. Make it real as possible. You can trade with $500 when you are earning $70,000 per annum. That $500 is money you can afford to lose and that for sure you will lose that money over and over again many times. This is retail forex trading arcade created by and for the smart money.
Think of trading with money you CANNOT afford to lose, and you will experience the difference and learn to develop mental strategies to become super traders. You will learn why 95% of traders are losers statistically.

..stay tuned... for more
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,574
  • Oct 17, 2017 9:10pm Oct 17, 2017 9:10pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} cheers for the reply. Scorps, if you see this message ..can you please describe how you handle london open and frankfurt open?

I know TST has been trading only EURAUD pair for many years.

Now look at EURAUD H1 chart below. The London Open hour is marked with the yellow vertical line.
Look at how the previous days traded. What do you see ?

Today the current price action at at a BRN 1.5000.
Can you already spot where the key support and resistance for today intraday H1 trading?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD Week 42 H1 LO trading.png Size: 63 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,575
  • Oct 17, 2017 11:26pm Oct 17, 2017 11:26pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Do you want to use THV CaveManager EA as your trade manager? Or you prefer to use MPTM as your trade manager?
Are these trade managers you have experience using? How do you use them if you don't mind me asking?
  • #82,576
  • Oct 18, 2017 12:21am Oct 18, 2017 12:21am
I don't use the arrows as signals. They give lot of wrong and lagging signals, might as well remove them.

What is that weekly candle indicator? very usefull!
  • #82,577
  • Oct 18, 2017 1:51am Oct 18, 2017 1:51am
EURAUD Oct 18 Frankfurt Open candle

11 minutes to H1 FO candle close, do you want to sell when London Open?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD Week 42 Oct 18 H1 FO candle.png Size: 52 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,578
  • Oct 18, 2017 3:06am Oct 18, 2017 3:06am
EURAUD Oct 18 LO candle,

anyone has good reason to buy the bullish LO candle?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,579
  • Oct 18, 2017 5:18am Oct 18, 2017 5:18am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Which pairs are your trading? Post charts of the pairs you looked at today. Like I said in one of my post made earlier this week, there are 5 fakey hours every day. Snarlyjack once said, there are 24 news candle in one day. This makes trading H1 very difficult. I don't know how much money people trading M30 and H1 make. I have seen more winning trades posted but have no idea the long term trade results as I have not seen any trading statements. To trade H1 and M15, you have to do a lot more trades and almost on every day basis to really...


Hi emmanuel, here was one of the trades. I think I actually got in this late ..and manually closed the trade thinking it was doomed, only to see it recover later

vertical line is the signal [on london open, broker time is 2 hrs in front]
purple dash is where i had my sl
this week i recently changed my trading style and most of the m30/h1 trades seem to eventually win, but they seem to go into heavy drawdown first ..to the point where i'm sure it's gonna be a loser. nzd/usd m30 did the same yesterday, trade was taken in new york session, it went into heavy drawndown over night but did not take out the upper swing high, then eventually went on to win......

currently i have several h4 trades going too. all looking positive. they don't seem to go into as heavy drawdown as m30 and h1, they seem to go into drawdown to the pac ..and then recover, whilst m30 and h1 will go beyond the pac
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: londonopendd.png Size: 43 KB
  • #82,580
  • Oct 18, 2017 5:24am Oct 18, 2017 5:24am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURAUD Oct 18 LO candle, anyone has good reason to buy the bullish LO candle?

if GBPAUD can break the support with a decent bearish candle on H4, I think we will see a significant bearish run.......
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