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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #35,141
  • Oct 16, 2017 6:42am Oct 16, 2017 6:42am
Quoting medici
{quote}
And I'm short from 13019
Out at 13004.

Enough for today.
  • #35,142
  • Oct 16, 2017 10:56am Oct 16, 2017 10:56am
Unhappy about intraday volatility?

We're at historical bottom levels.

The charts below show weekly average ATR for a 4 hour candle for DAX and DJI.

Hasn't been this low since the summer of 2014, before the start of ECBs QE programme.

If one looks at monthly average of daily ATR, the picture is similarly bleak. Historical bottom levels again.

The only thing that could change this is some downside momentum - reason enough to be bearish
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  • #35,143
  • Oct 16, 2017 11:15am Oct 16, 2017 11:15am
Quoting medici
{quote}

And now, after some very juicy swings, things seems to be settling under Thursday's ominous (to me) high, with short-term charts rolling over south.
European markets now rolling over without hesitation. Dow rolling over slowly after a reversal opening hour, with Thursday's high as the battle line. When that goes, it's downhill from here, and we'll get our well deserved intraday volatility back
  • #35,144
  • Oct 16, 2017 12:14pm Oct 16, 2017 12:14pm
Quoting medici
Unhappy about intraday volatility? We're at historical bottom levels. The charts below show weekly average ATR for a 4 hour candle for DAX and DJI. Hasn't been this low since the summer of 2014, before the start of ECBs QE programme. If one looks at monthly average of daily ATR, the picture is similarly bleak. Historical bottom levels again. The only thing that could change this is some downside momentum - reason enough to be bearish {image} {image}
A huge retrace is expected. History might be repeated today, this afternoon.
  • #35,145
  • Oct 16, 2017 12:51pm Oct 16, 2017 12:51pm
Or not.
  • #35,146
  • Edited 2:18pm Oct 16, 2017 2:06pm | Edited 2:18pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} A huge retrace is expected. History might be repeated today, this afternoon.
Not so sure that history will repeat itself. Markets have become much more sophisticated in the last 30 years.

Huge retracement may not be a guarantee either, but the over-supply of money is causing imbalances.

In any case, there are scientific models for the prediction of these things. See http://www.er.ethz.ch/financial-crisis-observatory.html and do explore the various options in the models.

I once set a graduate to do extensive tests of these models in various markets. Works wonders for trading too was the conclusion.

If you know your quants and want to play with it, this is where to start: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1001.0265.pdf
  • #35,147
  • Oct 17, 2017 1:59am Oct 17, 2017 1:59am
taken short 15 stop..1 hr cht
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  • #35,148
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:07am Oct 17, 2017 2:07am
closed for 10
  • #35,149
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:11am Oct 17, 2017 2:11am
bought it 10 stop 1 min
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  • #35,150
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:12am Oct 17, 2017 2:12am
good morning,

i expect another day of low vola, most likely i will spend not much time on trading (after weeks of clouds, rain and strom now the sun came back to berlin -> quality time). more or less uncharted territory.

good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #35,151
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:13am Oct 17, 2017 2:13am
stop at enter point
  • #35,152
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:15am Oct 17, 2017 2:15am
Quoting medici
{quote} Not so sure that history will repeat itself. Markets have become much more sophisticated in the last 30 years. Huge retracement may not be a guarantee either, but the over-supply of money is causing imbalances. In any case, there are scientific models for the prediction of these things. See http://www.er.ethz.ch/financial-crisis-observatory.html and do explore the various options in the models. I once set a graduate to do extensive tests of these models in various markets. Works wonders for trading too was the conclusion. If you...
thanks for the links.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #35,153
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:15am Oct 17, 2017 2:15am
Quoting danc
stop at enter point
closed10
  • #35,154
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:16am Oct 17, 2017 2:16am
long @13.000,7 sl -10 tp +30
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #35,155
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:20am Oct 17, 2017 2:20am
15 min long again 12 stop
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  • #35,156
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:23am Oct 17, 2017 2:23am
Quoting danc
15 min long again 12 stop {image}
closed minus a few..will wait
  • #35,157
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:24am Oct 17, 2017 2:24am
Quoting deltaone
long @13.000,7 sl -10 tp +30
no. donīt like it. closed +-0
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #35,158
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:25am Oct 17, 2017 2:25am
Quoting danc
{quote} closed minus a few..will wait
agreed. unclear.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #35,159
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:32am Oct 17, 2017 2:32am
short at 12997..20 stop..a pure punt.. just a chance D T.. based on 4 hrs cht and yr md
  • #35,160
  • Oct 17, 2017 2:39am Oct 17, 2017 2:39am
Short from 13003 and a bit, and out for 20.
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