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  • #1,137,221
  • Oct 13, 2017 11:29pm Oct 13, 2017 11:29pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Morning Dig tell me what you see {image}
Certainly has the makings of it E,,,,,,Looking a ways out though could see this as a shoulder area for the monthly chart,,,, take a long time for that to play out a very long time tho ,,,,,,,,,can make a good argument for a drop for sure
  • #1,137,222
  • Edited 12:25am Oct 14, 2017 12:08am | Edited 12:25am
Quoting elbert3
Anybody think H/S !!
If it is and it stays below neckline 1.16ish is projection ,,,,,kinda the way Ill be working unless neck line fails then its the last highs again where the monthly chart sheet comes into play,,,,,,,,Quite a sight when you get two totally different time frames a long ways apart that look eerily similar lol,,,,must be Halloween time ha..... On the monthly the 10 and 20 year average sitting around 1.2480 marker ,,,,,,,, sure thats a tgt for bulls but they may have to endure a bit of a pause . 6 hour chart top, monthly chart bottom. Cheers E have a great weekend
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  • #1,137,223
  • Edited 5:29am Oct 14, 2017 4:27am | Edited 5:29am
TA is a powerful tool to guide but can also be a powerful tool to misguide ......TA can give an idea in which direction is heading in the next future but the market does not have to conform to any idea in the next future.......The market just is.

Yes a rising wedge can give an idea of a reversal but if bears do not get in and bulls do not take profits it will only remain an idea.....

TA is more of an art form more than an exact science, an high degree of discretion is required ...... market is fluid and will unfold the same pattern under the same condition in a different outcome.....but in the face of many variability the probability factor con represent an edge for the retail trader........

That is why a retail trader need to apply discipline in his understanding of the fluidity of the market......discipline not in the sense of rigidity but closer to the fluidity of the market itself.....

If prices are traveling in a form of a pullback towards a bear trend line in a bear trend which is the technical reason for taken the trade.....a continuation of the bear trend is expected at that bear trend line......but prices can turn before it.....a trader need to have that flexibility in his discipline to take the trade when it happens...

My Sunday thought contribution...
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,137,224
  • Oct 14, 2017 6:55am Oct 14, 2017 6:55am
eurusd D1 down
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  • #1,137,225
  • Oct 14, 2017 8:50am Oct 14, 2017 8:50am
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The old Euro long signal is gone. Last week Euro and Dax were both pretty lethargic. Euro is looking down now and I see that Dax finally got done clearing orders at 13k.

I always look for different levels of strength in correlated pairs. In the image, the pairs all trade against the dollar. The circled areas are all I need to see that - if I were to go to a Eur/Gbp chart, it would definitely be down in that area.

Eur/Aud is just beautiful. Strong Aud coupled with Euro's unwillingness to also go any higher creates large moves in the cross. And although I know that hindsight is a wonderful thing.... we could see for ourselves last week, the last few days of Euro not willing to move..... Pound moving like crazy..... and Aud moving up in nice smooth waves.

For next week - be aware that Dax has cleared 13k, and Euro doesn't seem to want to go anywhere. (But as soon as that changes, just roll with it).
  • #1,137,226
  • Edited 12:50pm Oct 14, 2017 12:21pm | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting Price
{image} The old Euro long signal is gone. Last week Euro and Dax were both pretty lethargic. Euro is looking down now and I see that Dax finally got done clearing orders at 13k. I always look for different levels of strength in correlated pairs. In the image, the pairs all trade against the dollar. The circled areas are all I need to see that - if I were to go to a Eur/Gbp chart, it would definitely be down in that area. Eur/Aud is just beautiful. Strong Aud coupled with Euro's unwillingness to also go any higher creates large moves in the cross....
Good post...

Yes EA had a good run down in the last couple of day.....driving mostly but AU spiking up...also EJ moved nicely.....those crosses when they move they move fast.....

For me it is not clear to know when they start to move in those fashion...
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,137,227
  • Oct 14, 2017 2:45pm Oct 14, 2017 2:45pm
Quoting digger1
{quote} If it is and it stays below neckline 1.16ish is projection ,,,,,kinda the way Ill be working unless neck line fails then its the last highs again where the monthly chart sheet comes into play,,,,,,,,Quite a sight when you get two totally different time frames a long ways apart that look eerily similar lol,,,,must be Halloween time ha..... On the monthly the 10 and 20 year average sitting around 1.2480 marker ,,,,,,,, sure thats a tgt for bulls but they may have to endure a bit of a pause . 6 hour chart top, monthly chart bottom. Cheers E...
Hi Dig sorry for this late reply but we have been on a big bash today lol hi hic I am still holding 2 shorts on EU From the 2000 I had 1 long on GU but took the swap 3260 into a short without a stop and at one time that trade was big underwater . And still could be I have or had 3350 as a order to sell but missed it by a few ups and was not on the market to be in control ... hay ho . Gbj I have s short and long as Oates last week ... gbj has a possible to go to 150.40 but 142 is still a bottom target . The brain is now slipping into increasing blocks of what ever wine does to you . Soooo I am going to slip into a nightcap . That's not what you put on your head lol .. cheers hic B out
  • #1,137,228
  • Oct 14, 2017 2:52pm Oct 14, 2017 2:52pm
Quoting Jones_PL
eurusd D1 down {image}
Do you also think H/S ? Regards E
  • #1,137,229
  • Oct 14, 2017 3:09pm Oct 14, 2017 3:09pm
Try not to get stopped out ladies and gentlemen.

Those cats are fierce.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #1,137,230
  • Oct 14, 2017 3:12pm Oct 14, 2017 3:12pm
Quoting elbert3
Anybody think H/S !!
I've been short-sighted for an amount of time now. I don't see a head & shoulders, yet I do believe the response is the same. SELL!
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #1,137,231
  • Edited 5:25pm Oct 14, 2017 4:38pm | Edited 5:25pm

I think max. Drop will reach area around 1.790 and resume with the uptrend or consolidate around 1.820-1.860 area.


This is the same target for breaking the previous up channel (70 pips)

Beside 1790 is a strong support point.


According to the weekly cot report for last week 66% of the inst. investors are still Bullish for the euro and this week report not much of a change expected.


The euro will be in safe hand once it starts to consolidate above 1.835.


Once fundementals start building up against the USD next week... 1.1880 will be taken easily.


Yesterday, draghi stated that increasing the inflation will take time which means the hksh view for increasing the interest rate by dec. might not take place. Why should he pull the money out of the market while the inflation at its minimal!?




Best of Luck all


  • #1,137,232
  • Oct 14, 2017 5:02pm Oct 14, 2017 5:02pm
Quoting zaidan
I think max. Drop will reach area around 1.790 and resume with the uptrend or consolidate around 1.820-1.860 area. This is the same target for breaking the previous up channel (70 pips) Beside 1790 is a strong support point. According to the weekly cot report for last week 66% of the inst. investors are still Bullish for the euro and this week report not much of a change expected. The euro will be in safe hand once it starts to consolidate above 1.835. Once fundementals start building up against the USD next week... 1.1880 will be taken easily....
Pattern-wise, to me it seems similar to July 24th which also resulted in an upward move.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #1,137,233
  • Oct 14, 2017 5:16pm Oct 14, 2017 5:16pm
Quoting OHLC
{quote} Pattern-wise, to me it seems similar to July 24th which also resulted in an upward move.

we have a major resistance between 1.1873-1.1887 and daily close above this level will take us to a new level again, cause these type of resistance require strong Fundamentals not Technical targets.


This is why spikes exist in these markets.

  • #1,137,234
  • Oct 14, 2017 5:17pm Oct 14, 2017 5:17pm
Quoting zaidan
{quote} we have a major resistance between 1.1873-1.1886 and daily close above this level will take as to a new level again cause these type of resistance require strong Fundamentals not Technicals. This is why spikes exist in this markets.
I only trade intraday so I'm not super concerned with long-term views but it's good to know. Thanks for posting.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #1,137,235
  • Oct 14, 2017 5:32pm Oct 14, 2017 5:32pm
Looking for a small gap down tomorrow, going into the week we should see the EURO continue to decline. For mid to long term the Euro is a buy, however; with the current technical outlook and Draghi comments, euro is a temporary sell.

I'm currently holding a short, and looking to start buying around 1.1560, there's very strong bullish support there....a very common pattern that most of you know

So far as USD goes, there is nothing to see until DECEMBER FOMC, fed rate hike is a done deal!

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html
  • #1,137,236
  • Oct 15, 2017 2:57am Oct 15, 2017 2:57am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Do you also think H/S ? Regards E
sometimes
  • #1,137,237
  • Oct 15, 2017 6:11am Oct 15, 2017 6:11am
https://www.facebook.com/ADFCANALYSIS/

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  • #1,137,238
  • Oct 15, 2017 7:30am Oct 15, 2017 7:30am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Hi Dig sorry for this late reply but we have been on a big bash today lol hi hic I am still holding 2 shorts on EU From the 2000 I had 1 long on GU but took the swap 3260 into a short without a stop and at one time that trade was big underwater . And still could be I have or had 3350 as a order to sell but missed it by a few ups and was not on the market to be in control ... hay ho . Gbj I have s short and long as Oates last week ... gbj has a possible to go to 150.40 but 142 is still a bottom target . The brain is now slipping into increasing...
No worries bud ,,,,,,that is what the week ends are for man ,,carry on
  • #1,137,239
  • Oct 15, 2017 9:45am Oct 15, 2017 9:45am
Hello everyone. Been reading here for many years, but decided to join, guess I am a bit bored waiting for the open today.
I don’t post anywhere much, but just wanted to say hello to everyone. Been trading a few decades, but as an old guy now, I just swing trade including the Euro futures and options, so I enjoy reading some of the comments in this thread.

I used to have a job where I watched individual traders try to make a living. They were given a lot of leverage, not unlike the Forex markets. Over the years I have seen a number of people here recommend not overusing leverage, and I can tell you from firsthand experience they are correct. Trading is great, I have been doing it a long time, but too much leverage and trying for too big of % gains will eventually lead to a bad outcome. I have had to shut off more than a few people that blew their whole account, please don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.

Since I am not a day trader I can’t comment on day to day moves, I am not that good a trader. I have watched some crazy good day traders before, but I found I couldn’t compete with them so didn’t pursue it. From a swing trader perspective, I am watching the head and shoulders try to play out on the daily. With the speeches this weekend, I am guessing we will quickly either get a reaction to the downside and the H&S will try to test recent lows, or the market just ignores the speeches and continues on with the Euro longer term uptrend. The Euro went up so far so fast, that it is not surprising we are spending time bouncing around in a narrow range.

The implied volatility of the Euro (6E futures) options is rather low, they are only expecting a less than 170 pip move in either direction for the next 19 days. Then again the VIX is really low too, I guess no one is expecting a shock to currencies or stocks anytime soon. Anyway, thanks to all those who post, good luck.
  • #1,137,240
  • Oct 15, 2017 9:55am Oct 15, 2017 9:55am
EU Buy Limit 1750 and 1700
Buy Stop 1925

Targets 1.21 & 1.22
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
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