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  • #1,641
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:45am Oct 13, 2017 10:45am
Quoting swTrue
{quote} And that is why you fail to see, you brush past the basics...as I did at one time. This should blow your mind, if you can't see it take some time off and come back. I used a chart CP just posted because some seem infatuated, but like I said, it's all simple, basic stuff. I take the same trades on a longer time frame. Do you see it? {image}
yeah it definitely blew my mind man, problem is that shit has nothing to do with my previous post lol. Anyway im sure you re gonna be a millionaire like your guru very soon. keep pushin
  • #1,642
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:46am Oct 13, 2017 10:46am
Quoting tashkent
this thread has to cool down. we should refrain from talking about each other (or ourselves) if have nothing to offer on the topic.
It becomes so hot.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #1,643
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:51am Oct 13, 2017 10:51am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} I thought you stalk my posts? Did you missed this one... There's a reading list at the bottom of this post. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...59#post6960159
Thanks a million! - I totally appreciate it, and apologize that you had to dig it up.

Your words provoke thoughts and take me in a direction that I may not otherwise go in.
Looking back I do remember that post, and regretfully, I can say that looking at it again, I can tell I just wasn't ready for it at the time.

On a humorous note, if that doc is all I missed then I am doing pretty F'n good!!!
  • #1,644
  • Oct 13, 2017 11:14am Oct 13, 2017 11:14am
Dear CrucialPoint,

it is easy to grab some pips when the market has above average volatility so could you kindly show us how you deal with ranging sessions like 4.10.2017 or 11.10.2017 (cable ofc)?

Do you have every week profitable?
  • #1,645
  • Oct 13, 2017 11:27am Oct 13, 2017 11:27am
Ya ok .............. I guess I should give CP some credit to my learning to be a consistently profitable trader..... when I first read some of his cryptic writing on some other thread, I at first was intrigued with the words........(we humans can get caught up in verbal masturbation, and think we have accomplished something.) after some time it just pissed me off and I closed down all trading forums and stared at the charts only and said ok whats valid and whats not valid --from all the bull I have been reading. that's what turned ma around by turning away from the so called trading gurus....... its got to be done by the individual and all any guru can do is point you in the right direction or piss me off so bad that I had to introvert and as always -- do it on my own..... Thanks CP for pissing me off..
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,646
  • Oct 13, 2017 11:28am Oct 13, 2017 11:28am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am no follower of CP so sharing what I have read thus far.
lol yeah but you been riding his stick a lot lately tho for a non follower
  • #1,647
  • Oct 13, 2017 11:33am Oct 13, 2017 11:33am
Well we'll well. Why am I not surprised that VEEFX is still around this forum harassing everyone?
  • #1,648
  • Oct 13, 2017 11:35am Oct 13, 2017 11:35am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} I thought you stalk my posts? Did you missed this one... There's a reading list at the bottom of this post. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...59#post6960159
Hello crucialpoint. big fan.
  • #1,649
  • Oct 13, 2017 11:51am Oct 13, 2017 11:51am
Quoting iamsovereign
Ya ok .............. I guess I should give CP some credit to my learning to be a consistently profitable trader..... when I first read some of his cryptic writing on some other thread, I at first was intrigued with the words........(we humans can get caught up in verbal masturbation, and think we have accomplished something.) after some time it just pissed me off and I closed down all trading forums and stared at the charts only and said ok whats valid and whats not valid --from all the bull I have been reading. that's what turned ma around by turning...
The way CP tries to help other traders is just giving a feedback about the right direction. it is more like giving hints how to catch a fish rather than giving the fish. there is no one secret system to successful trading. there are too many and every trader has his own system which probably will not be suitable/profitable for another trader. CP has his own system and as he says, he will never disclose it in full and doubt that everybody can utilize it even if he disclose it. The system must be built by your own, because nobody else knows you better than yourself. I think, the reason why he wrote some details of his biography that he has come to his secret system only because who he is. basically, the System is You and it takes hard work to find that specific system, which only belongs to you. this may sound little confusing but at least i tried
As Above, So Below
  • #1,650
  • Oct 13, 2017 12:02pm Oct 13, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} The way CP tries to help other traders is just giving a feedback about the right direction. it is more like giving hints how to catch a fish rather than giving the fish. there is no one secret system to successful trading. there are too many and every trader has his own system which probably will not be suitable/profitable for another trader. CP has his own system and as he says, he will never disclose it in full and doubt that everybody can utilize it even if he disclose it. The system must be built by your own, because nobody else knows...

That's what I just said -- with some humor, Regards
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,651
  • Oct 13, 2017 12:23pm Oct 13, 2017 12:23pm
It's not rocket science...

"You will only find me here in FF and nowhere else.
If you find another CrucialPoint outside FF, it is not me.
DO NOT GET SCAMMED."

Now Metta87 saw another crucialpoint posting at dailyfx and believes its me.
If he or other people cannot connect the dots... May god have mercy on your souls
here is a million dollar advice: STOP TRADING FOREVER

And that's one reason why I'm leaving. (not because of haters - I have developed thick skin over the years)
People created account using the name CrucialPoint elsewhere (copying everything I posted)
and its those guys who have real malevolent intent.
  • #1,652
  • Oct 13, 2017 12:24pm Oct 13, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
And that's one reason why I'm leaving.

Again?
  • #1,653
  • Oct 13, 2017 12:32pm Oct 13, 2017 12:32pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
It's not rocket science... "You will only find me here in FF and nowhere else. If you find another CrucialPoint outside FF, it is not me. DO NOT GET SCAMMED." Now Metta87 saw another crucialpoint posting at dailyfx and believes its me. If he or other people cannot connect the dots... May god have mercy on your souls here is a million dollar advice: STOP TRADING FOREVER And that's one reason why I'm leaving. (not because of haters - I have developed thick skin over the years) People created account using the name CrucialPoint elsewhere (copying...

SO it wasn't you on TV last night


CrucialPoints EVERYWHERE!
  • #1,654
  • Oct 13, 2017 1:55pm Oct 13, 2017 1:55pm
Quoting Botan626
{quote} Again?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PPI 666.png Size: 89 KB

Jokes aside, I know the feeling well, FF has become a guilty pleasure for me. It's not easy to leave my 'home' of several years.
  • #1,655
  • Oct 13, 2017 2:35pm Oct 13, 2017 2:35pm
Some brilliant minds gathered here so curious what you all think.

Does strategy actually matter?

If we accept that there are roughly as many winning strategies as there are winning traders, and

If one believes "whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve."

Would that not imply that winning traders are only traders who have developed strategies that they can believe are winning strategies. I'm not sure if explaining well, but basically is it the strategy or the practice of putting belief behind a particular strategy, that resonates with oneself, that creates the winning. You can give a winning strategy to someone with a losing mentality and he will never find consistent wins but only losses that manifest in all crazy ways. If one can get past the fear and doubt and move into faith and belief.... can any strategy in theory have positive ev?
  • #1,656
  • Oct 13, 2017 3:10pm Oct 13, 2017 3:10pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} i never understood how trading was about skills, yeah you wanna be a good soccer player, for sure if you put 10.000 hours into it you ll get better NO DOUBT. but trading....when you start you are not a bad trader because you lack skill, you are because you lack an edge. And here the amount of time you put into it wont make any difference if after 10k-1M hours you still dont have any edge. For sure you ll know a lot of stuff that dont work, many pitfalls to avoid but thats about it.
Really!! Lol ok, how do you think you develop an edge?!
  • #1,657
  • Oct 13, 2017 4:26pm Oct 13, 2017 4:26pm
Quoting asoriga
Some brilliant minds gathered here so curious what you all think. Does strategy actually matter? If we accept that there are roughly as many winning strategies as there are winning traders, and If one believes "whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve." Would that not imply that winning traders are only traders who have developed strategies that they can believe are winning strategies. I'm not sure if explaining well, but basically is it the strategy or the practice of putting belief behind a particular strategy, that resonates...

All that you said = It comes down to the - individual and all that individuals life experience and lots of practice - practice-practice........... and on and on
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,658
  • Oct 13, 2017 5:16pm Oct 13, 2017 5:16pm
Quoting asoriga
Does strategy actually matter?
If one can get past the fear and doubt and move into faith and belief.... can any strategy in theory have positive ev?
If strategy includes all of: choice of instrument, direction, entry, exit and money management, well, all of these can be coded into an EA, potentially removing the trader from the equation altogether. An EA has neither a positive or negative mindset bias, it simply executes a given set of rules with perfect consistency. If every strategy, given perfect execution, was profitable, then we would expect every EA to be profitable, which is apparently not the case. This leads me to believe that strategy is a critically important ingredient, and that self-belief alone is not enough.
  • #1,659
  • Edited 6:24pm Oct 13, 2017 5:37pm | Edited 6:24pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} If strategy includes all of: choice of instrument, direction, entry, exit and money management, well, all of these can be coded into an EA, potentially removing the trader from the equation altogether. An EA has neither a positive or negative mindset bias, it simply executes a given set of rules with perfect consistency. If every strategy, given perfect execution, was profitable, then we would expect every EA to be profitable, which is apparently not the case. This leads me to believe that strategy is a critically important ingredient, and...
Yep H I am totally with you here :-)

IMO whatever is applied needs to be a multiconditional (multivariate) response to capture a range of market conditions. For example, FA is multiconditonal, Trading multiple systematic systems is multi-conditional, Machine learning is multi-conditional. Discretionary trading is a multi-variate response in it's very definition.

What doesn't work however appears to be the repeated persistent application of exactly the same set of conditions. We prove this in EA world in that there is no EA that can stand up to all market conditions all the time.

What also doesn't work is human discretion where the discretion is applied on a whim and is not representative of the 'solution' that is present in that market condition...such as revenge trading, random application etc.

So from this alone we can narrow down the conditions that gives one strategy an edge over another. All strategies therefore are not equal.

What I personally think helps in the inquiry is to try to get to the nub of the dilemma. For example:

  1. Does this therefore mean that a strategy that responds to all market conditions is better than one that doesn't?.....and how could we define and capture all those market conditions? For example is there a broad brush solution where we categorize market conditions as Van Tharpe and others do into broad characteristics.? Are there two conditions (divergent and mean reverting) or 3 solutions (divergent, mean reverting and random)?....or 6 solutions (bull low vol, bear low vol, bull high vol, bear high vol, sideways low vol, sideways high vol)? If so, given that they are broad by definition, there is still a degree of error present...but that error is smaller and hence the solution stronger?
  2. How long does each condition last and is there any way to detect when a transition is taking place?
  3. What is the cost of 'lag' in the time it takes to 'detect' whether a change in market condition is taking place....and are there ways of beating the lag in detection?
  4. Is there a solution for a risk free return apart from the perfect hedge that can beat frictional costs?
  5. Is there a solution for a better return that through the Law of Large numbers (aka Central Limit Theorem) has a more linear risk:return profile with an edge? In other words a fairly steady return with slight risk variability but strictly within managed constraints?

We see this dilemma in other complex systems where conditions expressed are dynamic and non-stationery such as weather forecasting. Are their tricks that they apply to 'make better forecasts' that we could apply to the financial markets?

  • #1,660
  • Oct 13, 2017 6:14pm Oct 13, 2017 6:14pm
Quoting josh11
{quote} Really!! Lol ok, how do you think you develop an edge?!
i dont know. luck maybe ? i have not find any yet. have you ?
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