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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #69,721
  • Oct 13, 2017 8:43am Oct 13, 2017 8:43am
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} Nice work... hope it doesn't hit my tight stop.
can't breath LOL
  • #69,722
  • Oct 13, 2017 8:47am Oct 13, 2017 8:47am
Quoting MoneyFocus
Sold at 111.80. I think we will make a new low today.
I would agree with this though my main concern is that it will bounce off of 111.70-111.50 and goose step in to 113.50. The reason why i am concerned with this happening is that this looks like a corrective wave from the up trend we saw in the daily starting around September 11, 2017. A counter point to this is if and when Shinzo Abe wins, this will propel the pair downward implying strengthening of the yen and will occur on the 22nd of October, 2017. Furthermore there are options that are worth roughly $4.335 billion dollars expiring at 10:00 am today (their strike price is above 111.39). This means there will be a move downwards. As always if you find holes in this logic, point it out.


-Some new guy
  • #69,723
  • Oct 13, 2017 8:53am Oct 13, 2017 8:53am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Depends on the context it which it is being said. Most times it means the price of something has already had news to come factored into it. Unless of course the news turns out to be different from what had been anticipated. Then "all hell breaks loose". Clear?
So, if news is different from what is expected then price has not been discounted and otherwise it is?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #69,724
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:00am Oct 13, 2017 9:00am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} So, if news is different from what is expected then price has not been discounted and otherwise it is?
"I'll tell you after it happens" - SunTrader
  • #69,725
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:03am Oct 13, 2017 9:03am
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} "I'll tell you after it happens" - SunTrader
Atleast someone will tell otherwise technical traders do not bother much about the news.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #69,726
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:05am Oct 13, 2017 9:05am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Atleast someone will tell otherwise technical traders do not bother much about the news.
It was a joke about Suntrader's TA and FA based solely on hindsight, aka HA.
  • #69,727
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:07am Oct 13, 2017 9:07am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} So, if news is different from what is expected then price has not been discounted and otherwise it is?
No. Price action before, during and after a news release should tell you.

If positive news is expected and received price goes up before the release and most times should continue going up after.
If positive news is expected and not received price goes up before the release and most times should go down after.

In both cases positive news was factored in but the outcome was different because the actual news was different from the original expectation.

But there are all kinds of scenarios factored in whether everything is already discounted or not besides this simple scenario. That is why I don't trade the news. Let others try their "luck" at it.
  • #69,728
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:08am Oct 13, 2017 9:08am
FA is a joke. A joke some don't get.
  • #69,729
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:11am Oct 13, 2017 9:11am
I like all the jesting around here. Cheers.
  • #69,730
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:13am Oct 13, 2017 9:13am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} No. Price action before, during and after a news release should tell you. If positive news is expected and received price goes up before the release and most times should continue going up after. If positive news is expected and not received price goes up before the release and most times should go down after. In both cases positive news was factored in but the outcome was different because the actual news was different from the original expectation. But there are all kinds of scenarios factored in whether everything is already discounted...
what is confusing is these price swings happen at the time of some news.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #69,731
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:14am Oct 13, 2017 9:14am
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} It was a joke about Suntrader's TA and FA based solely on hindsight, aka HA.
I know it is a joke. Was trying to diffuse some tension. Brokering if you can say
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #69,732
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:14am Oct 13, 2017 9:14am
Hey guys,

This is kind of a shitty experiment, but I was hoping to get some feedback on this automatic level finder thing I've been working on.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 nn.AllPivots.ex4   112 KB | 180 downloads
  • #69,733
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:15am Oct 13, 2017 9:15am
North Korea threatening action again

best to not trade this pair over the weekend

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/w...-exercise.html

Never know what that idiot Kim will do over the weekend
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #69,734
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:15am Oct 13, 2017 9:15am
Quoting MoneyFocus
I like all the jesting around here. Cheers.
Believe me, people won't ban for simple jesting.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #69,735
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:19am Oct 13, 2017 9:19am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Atleast someone will tell otherwise technical traders do not bother much about the news.
Hi,
read some writings of Robert Precter on Social Mood might help
  • #69,736
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:23am Oct 13, 2017 9:23am
Quoting NagaMas
{quote} Hi, read some writings of Robert Precter on Social Mood might help
Can you provide a link?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #69,737
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:28am Oct 13, 2017 9:28am
Quoting NagaMas
{quote} Hi, read some writings of Robert Precter on Social Mood might help
hi
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #69,738
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:30am Oct 13, 2017 9:30am
Quoting maverick2017
{quote} Can you provide a link?
He writes for https://www.elliottwave.com/Social-Mood

in addition, this is a chunk from a media

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blo...ration-turmoil
Quote
Two comprehensive studies — one by Cutler et al. (1989) and the other by Joulin et al. (2008) — have demonstrated that even the biggest news has no reliable effect on the stock market. What’s more, they found that even the market’s biggest moves typically occur on no significant news. The originator of socionomic theory, Robert Prechter, has demonstrated that even knowing about dramatic news ahead of time is of little worth for forecasting the markets.
  • #69,739
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:37am Oct 13, 2017 9:37am
Quoting Nicholishen
Hey guys, This is kind of a shitty experiment, but I was hoping to get some feedback on this automatic level finder thing I've been working on. {file}
ill watch it for a week and let you know. is there any rules you follow or particular levels of interest you look for. i thought my dumpster find pc was going to crash, it was just working hard lost of info to interpret
  • #69,740
  • Oct 13, 2017 9:40am Oct 13, 2017 9:40am
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} ill watch it for a week and let you know. is there any rules you follow or particular levels of interest you look for. i thought my dumpster find pc was going to crash, it was just working hard lost of info to interpret
Important caveat I forgot to mention, it requires refreshed data on all timeframes. Click thru the TF before loading to ensure refresh. I use it to look for confluence when entering exiting. I can't tell you how many times it's saved me...
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