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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #69,661
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:19pm Oct 12, 2017 8:19pm
I believe that there is an election cumming up in japan as well, hows that going? who is leading, if they win what could that do this pair.
  • #69,662
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:19pm Oct 12, 2017 8:19pm
Quoting mmo1991
any pro trader long UJ?
Definitely not a pro, but a small part of me still believes a rally back to 113 can be possible. That's why I haven't been holding any USD/JPY positions for long, gunning this pair for scalps and intraday only.
  • #69,663
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:19pm Oct 12, 2017 8:19pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
lets see if we can get some conversations going tonight. i have a couple hours to spend. hanging out. im not a news trader, is there anything anyone is looking at for this week that may spark some volatility, this week. or any outside news that might help push things one way or the other. I feel the only stupid question is the one thats not asked. here's my 2 cents. my long term bias for this pair is short. japan needs to keep there currency cheep to help fuel there exports. and I thought that they were going to pull back the stock markets this...

Two possible external factors to watch out for:

1]Possible economic impact and aftermath for CA wildfires damages once they manage to douse it.Thankfully its not in the food producing region of the national.But the state by itself are the world's 7th largest GDP like it or not!!

2]Political event in NK on 18th Oct.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #69,664
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:20pm Oct 12, 2017 8:20pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
I believe that there is an election cumming up in japan as well, hows that going? who is leading, if they win what could that do this pair.

Snap election is since Abe is confident he will win.Its going to strengthen the Yen.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #69,665
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:25pm Oct 12, 2017 8:25pm
Tell me when will you burn your account if you still hold long
  • #69,666
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:25pm Oct 12, 2017 8:25pm
For all the talk about breaching 112.20 and heading further down (admittedly I'm one of those who said below 112.20 is bearish), we have been more of seeing grinding down movements and failed rallies. This suggests that neither bulls nor bears are actually putting in real efforts to move this, although the trend now is bearish, obviously. If I could say so, the bulls are pretty much dead at this moment; but the bears are half asleep too. We have a slew of data later, let's see where it brings us to.
  • #69,667
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:26pm Oct 12, 2017 8:26pm
Looking more and more like my thesis price will be traveling significantly lower, to 107/99 is correct. I still believe/expect some sort of bear trap before a large move up, perhaps above 113.50 to clear stops and draw large liquidity before actual break down. However I have Buystop above 113.7XX and sell stop below 111.469. Willing to go whichever way this wants to go.

Taking no positions in the meantime. Scalping short looks like the only play, but as I stated, I'm not convinced we won't see a stop clearing move to the upside, so with no low risk entries for me I will be staying out. Going to be looking at G/J and G/U until this breaks from its consolidation/range. I'd rather trade something with less absolute volatility, and more price trend in any direction.
  • #69,668
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:31pm Oct 12, 2017 8:31pm
Quoting mmo1991
Tell me when will you burn your account if you still hold long
with proper money management it wont burn up an account. cant win every trade.
  • #69,669
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:31pm Oct 12, 2017 8:31pm
Quoting Mwfinad1211
Taking no positions in the meantime. Scalping short looks like the only play, but as I stated, I'm not convinced we won't see a stop clearing move to the upside, so with no low risk entries for me I will be staying out. Going to be looking at G/J and G/U until this breaks from its consolidation/range. I'd rather trade something with less absolute volatility, and more price trend in any direction.
Yes, exactly what I'm saying. Cheers mate.

Idea for USDJPY for now:
-short scalps
-tight SL in case of a swift rally

Just my two cents.
  • #69,670
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:37pm Oct 12, 2017 8:37pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} with proper money management it wont burn up an account. cant win every trade.
agree .. and i do like that until now ...my another account my strategi is buy only in usdjpy,
  • #69,671
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:37pm Oct 12, 2017 8:37pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
For all the talk about breaching 112.20 and heading further down (admittedly I'm one of those who said below 112.20 is bearish), we have been more of seeing grinding down movements and failed rallies. This suggests that neither bulls nor bears are actually putting in real efforts to move this, although the trend now is bearish, obviously. If I could say so, the bulls are pretty much dead at this moment; but the bears are half asleep too. We have a slew of data later, let's see where it brings us to.
maybe everyone is being cautions with the the uncertainty in the markets at this time. we all have broken the cardinal rule buy low sell high.
  • #69,672
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:37pm Oct 12, 2017 8:37pm
Yeap... 111.99 is the red line on the sand . . . If it is not breached the bullish case still has hope.

Just longed with SL 111.95 It s a risk but a reasonable one .

  • #69,673
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:41pm Oct 12, 2017 8:41pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} maybe everyone is being cautions with the the uncertainty in the markets at this time. we all have broken the cardinal rule buy low sell high.

Buy low, sell high is great in a range, terrible in a trend...
Buy high, Sell higher is bad in a range, great in a trend...

Since we are in a range this advice is applicable, until we break. As soon as trend is established buying low is a poor if not suicidal strategy. This isn't long-term investing (atleast for me), I'm trading with the intent of making a profit.
  • #69,674
  • Oct 12, 2017 8:57pm Oct 12, 2017 8:57pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} Yes, exactly what I'm saying. Cheers mate. Idea for USDJPY for now: -short scalps -tight SL in case of a swift rally Just my two cents.
thats a good strategy, i have a hard time getting out of trades. i think that everyone has there trend that they are always looking for subconsciously, if im correct, this one is mine. the good thing is that i see a lot of tops and bottoms just cant get out. i like seeing 800 to 1000 pip trades, margin indicator so full you cant even make scene out of it. and for an update i would really like to redo my chart but until price stops me out at bottom of the red box. i have to trade my plan. dont ask its all in my head. more or less a trend trader, but always looking for a better opportunity or a add on really gets me excited. I know i speak form memory alot. its a necessity, i have something that goes by a few different names i think the clinical name is bi-lateral dominancey. pretty much i dont have a dominant side of my brain. i was blessed in middle school to meet a teacher with the same condition. after several test he sat me down and told me today is your lucky day. I have the same thing you do. the first thing im going to teach you is that every learning technique you have been taught forget it. memorize everything. once it gets put on my hard drive i can always retreive it. so thats why i tend to speak form memory a lot.
  • #69,675
  • Oct 12, 2017 9:01pm Oct 12, 2017 9:01pm
Quoting Mwfinad1211
{quote} Buy low, sell high is great in a range, terrible in a trend... Buy high, Sell higher is bad in a range, great in a trend... Since we are in a range this advice is applicable, until we break. As soon as trend is established buying low is a poor if not suicidal strategy. This isn't long-term investing (atleast for me), I'm trading with the intent of making a profit.
i really try to trade what i see but find myself hold the bag. if i try for anything less then 50 pips. so to correct myself buy the dips sell the rallys.
  • #69,676
  • Oct 12, 2017 9:05pm Oct 12, 2017 9:05pm
Quoting SunTrader
Tuesday was an outside bar and inside bars followed on Wednesday and Thursday. May be setting up for a big move. {image}
How do you trade a inside bar?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #69,677
  • Oct 12, 2017 9:07pm Oct 12, 2017 9:07pm
a couple I'm of levels I'm considering....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #69,678
  • Edited 9:25pm Oct 12, 2017 9:14pm | Edited 9:25pm
with this current p.a. would be a good time to try this. i do it from time. i wouldn't suggests trying it on your live accounts. open an demo account and make 10/10 pip trades. you can move you take profit up as much as you want to, to try and knock off a trade. only make 9 instead of 10. but you cant lower it. and while the trade is active you have to keep moving your stop loss up as close as you can until you get to b.e. after that try 10/20 pip trades. and calculate your win loss ratio and average them together. i thought of this exercise to try to help myself pick better entry's and force myself to get out. you will be surprised how fast your focus moves from your pnl to your win/loss ratio. the pips will be in your pnl. great weekend practice on trading 212 platform. yes its demo trading vs. a fake market. but it more about the exersize. a trader should be able to profit in any market at any time.
  • #69,679
  • Oct 12, 2017 9:49pm Oct 12, 2017 9:49pm
I have not changed my opinion, not even saying we are going there first. just noticed the confluence gathering in that area.
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  • #69,680
  • Oct 12, 2017 10:06pm Oct 12, 2017 10:06pm
Sentiment update.
The trade is 4xjunkie long to 115.495 darth pip short to 107.5 first strike wins.

4xjunkie,ohlc,nagamas,and Nicholishen, are in the green camp

darthpip,nagamas,Mr.yen,SckT, catroot, In the red camp. and

mwfinad1211 is on the fence for now.
moneyfocus is ready to go both ways.

anyone wants in just say what camp you want to be in and ill add you. it just for fun.
darth pip had a good day I felt it.
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