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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #121
  • Sep 21, 2006 8:00pm Sep 21, 2006 8:00pm
Quoting Se[V]eN
hai....i made 2 trades yesterday USD/JPY and USD/CHF...
trades are on me.i made+80 pips and+65 pips...
not closing yet.should i close now or should i wait...
can somebody tell me....
i make anew trade today on GBP/JPY and seems to be on profits...
can somebody tell me either im doing the right thing or not...
Hi Se[v]en,

Glad to hear you are winning on JPY & CHF trades. Sound like you are doing the right thing. As smjones said "trail your stops and let the market take you out when it's ready.

Cheers

Fozzy
  • #122
  • Sep 21, 2006 8:07pm Sep 21, 2006 8:07pm
Quoting HighAsAKite
Fozzy,


Only been demoing this strategy for a little bit now, but Have had 1 win, 1 breakeven, and have another trade still going holding a 111pip profit on it at the moment.

Thanks for your input, I will keep demoing this strategy and will put my input into this forum on anything i find or if i change my exit strategy, as my profit trade got me out for a 25 pip trail, but when i look at the trade now, I would have an extra 60 pip profit if i wasn't taken out... DAMN! ohh well keep moving on with a smile for a profit!

Cheers,

Daveo!
Hi Daveo,
I know exactly what you mean about being taken out early. My USD/CHF trade closed me out at breakeven yesterday and overnight went on to make +89 pips. There is a difference between not winning and losing. The way I look at it is at least it didn't go backwards. I still have my trading capital and there will be other trades. Very frustrating it is but you can't win them all.

Cheers

Fozzy
  • #123
  • Sep 21, 2006 8:12pm Sep 21, 2006 8:12pm
ne
Quoting brainjt
the same like in tlatomi- 4,8,5,4
Hi

hai brainjit..
i tried the sniper"s ergodic with tlatomi setting...
the signal also good but seems a bit late and distrupting the basic rule....
or u seeing something else..
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #124
  • Sep 21, 2006 8:40pm Sep 21, 2006 8:40pm
You could also use a Tom DeMark level 2 trend line and the draw a line from the lowest point to the line and transpose that to the trend line where price breaks thru it.
Attached Image
  • #125
  • Sep 21, 2006 9:11pm Sep 21, 2006 9:11pm
Keep in mind trading the daily chart takes LOTS of patience ive been in a buy position with EU for a week and a half...now its starting to payoff
  • #126
  • Sep 22, 2006 12:41am Sep 22, 2006 12:41am
hi fozzy,
do you use ema or sma for the 8 ma

thanks
  • #127
  • Sep 22, 2006 12:47am Sep 22, 2006 12:47am
Quoting stricko108
hi fozzy,
do you use ema or sma for the 8 ma

thanks
Hi Stricko,

ema

Cheers

Fozzy
  • #128
  • Sep 22, 2006 1:18am Sep 22, 2006 1:18am
Quoting fozzy
Hi Daveo,
I know exactly what you mean about being taken out early. My USD/CHF trade closed me out at breakeven yesterday and overnight went on to make +89 pips. There is a difference between not winning and losing. The way I look at it is at least it didn't go backwards. I still have my trading capital and there will be other trades. Very frustrating it is but you can't win them all.

Cheers

Fozzy
Hi Fozzy,

Yes, I like the way you put that mate. I think you have the right idea. Try to take the positives out of the situation rather than dwell an the trade flying in your direction and you not being onboard.

Better to be out wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out. as they say.

neil.
  • #129
  • Sep 22, 2006 2:36am Sep 22, 2006 2:36am
Short signal on USD/CAD.

I am short 1.1195.

Possible signals after today:

Long EUR/JPY.
Long EUR/GBP.
Short GBP/CHF.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #130
  • Sep 22, 2006 9:24am Sep 22, 2006 9:24am
20p trailing stop took me out at 1.1139. Anyone else still in this one?
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #131
  • Sep 22, 2006 9:33am Sep 22, 2006 9:33am
Quoting fxvision
20p trailing stop took me out at 1.1139. Anyone else still in this one?
Mine took me out at 1.1129. $60 and $34 profits, trading .2 lots. Not bad.

But that damn GPB/JPY trade is killing me.. It's been going sideways for a week now and each square is like 90 pips. Lol. It's a blip on the chart and I'm down 50 pips on this monster...

I've made money (demo) on the USD/CAD and USD/JPY this week.

I really like how I can just set it and leave it. Starting a new job on Monday I won't be able to monitor charts all day for signals.

Jason
  • #132
  • Sep 22, 2006 9:37am Sep 22, 2006 9:37am
Quoting fozzy
Hi Stricko,

ema

Cheers

Fozzy
I've been using the SMA on all of my charts. While I had two profitable trades this way, I noticed if I were on EMA I would have never entered that GBP/JPY trade that is messing with me.

Is there any particular reason you chose EMA? I don't know why, but I guess since it wasn't specified I just assumed you used the default MA setting.

Jason
  • #133
  • Sep 22, 2006 11:07am Sep 22, 2006 11:07am
Quoting jlowder
...Is there any particular reason you chose EMA? I don't know why, but I guess since it wasn't specified I just assumed you used the default MA setting.Jason
Hi Jason, you might want to check out this interesting article on moving averages. It explains why the Exponetial MA is the "moving average of choice among many technical traders".

Have a great weekend.
: ) Thom
  • #134
  • Sep 22, 2006 11:34am Sep 22, 2006 11:34am
I spent this morning doing an actual manual forward test starting from 1/1/2006 on EURUSD, paging thru each day using F12. Here are the results. I used a 50 pip Trailing Stop for the TP and also as the BE Stop
I used the previous day High or Low as the initial stop loss.

Total trades 28
Wins 18
Pips won 2347
Avg Win 130
Losses 4
Pips Lost -358
Avg Loss -89
BreakEvens 6


Totals
Net Pips 1989
(percentages are based on number of trades, not on pips earned)
Winning % 64%
Losing % 14%
BreakEvens % 22%

Consecutive wins 8
Consecutive Losses 2
Consecutive BE 1
  • #135
  • Sep 22, 2006 11:43am Sep 22, 2006 11:43am
smjones...... looks like HOLYGRAIL!!
  • #136
  • Sep 22, 2006 11:45am Sep 22, 2006 11:45am
It is not my %. It is what it is. As I mentioned above, the % is the % of winning trades, not profit. The numbers are there to compute the profitablility though
From What I have seen, It looks like a very good method. This is Fozzy's, I had nothing to do with it... The Kudos go to him.


Quoting kamanda
smjones...your winning % is crazy? are u just lucky or what?... looks like HOLYGRAIL!!
  • #137
  • Sep 22, 2006 11:49am Sep 22, 2006 11:49am
..daily Fozzy...classic !!
  • #138
  • Sep 22, 2006 1:06pm Sep 22, 2006 1:06pm
Quoting smjones
It is not my %. It is what it is. As I mentioned above, the % is the % of winning trades, not profit. The numbers are there to compute the profitablility though
From What I have seen, It looks like a very good method. This is Fozzy's, I had nothing to do with it... The Kudos go to him.
This would be interesting to see with 2 lots in play per trade. Using the 40 pip value, I've take profits twice now and had the remaining two move onwards for even more profit.

I'm also wondering if the average daily range of a pair could be used to determine the ideal initial TP values. Since each pair moves differently I don't know that 40 (or 50) pips would be the right value for each one.. If we could somehow determine a way to tweak this per pair we might do even better..

Jason
  • #139
  • Sep 22, 2006 1:10pm Sep 22, 2006 1:10pm
Yes it sounds like you have a good idea... My test was just to determine the numbers... If a method is profitable with just one unit size, then by adding optimization of multiple lot sizes, it is the next logical step to improvement...



Quoting jlowder
This would be interesting to see with 2 lots in play per trade. Using the 40 pip value, I've take profits twice now and had the remaining two move onwards for even more profit.

I'm also wondering if the average daily range of a pair could be used to determine the ideal initial TP values. Since each pair moves differently I don't know that 40 (or 50) pips would be the right value for each one.. If we could somehow determine a way to tweak this per pair we might do even better..

Jason
  • #140
  • Sep 22, 2006 1:32pm Sep 22, 2006 1:32pm
Quoting smjones
I spent this morning doing an actual manual forward test starting from 1/1/2006 on EURUSD, paging thru each day using F12. Here are the results. I used a 50 pip Trailing Stop for the TP and also as the BE Stop
I used the previous day High or Low as the initial stop loss.

Total trades 28
Wins 18
Pips won 2347
Avg Win 130
Losses 4
Pips Lost -358
Avg Loss -89
BreakEvens 6


Totals
Net Pips 1989
(percentages are based on number of trades, not on pips earned)
Winning % 64%
Losing % 14%
BreakEvens % 22%

Consecutive wins 8
Consecutive Losses 2
Consecutive BE 1
Good work Mr Jones, I think it was a morning well spent.

We'll crack this forex thing yet!

Neil.
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