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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #69,561
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:14pm Oct 10, 2017 11:14pm
gonna try selling 112.72 again today...or buying 111.62
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #69,562
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:15pm Oct 10, 2017 11:15pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} My opinoin is that we see 115. before 110. we are waiting for 112.5 to harden and become support. then it should be a fast ride to 114.5 a short pause then breakout to 115.495. call me crazy, its what i remember. gap up and run goes and hangs out at an odd handle 50, for what seems like forever and a sell the whole time. then hold on once it hardens and becomes support.
It languished in this 112.70/112.50 region for a good two weeks(with a few upsides followed by pullbacks) and nothing came out of that.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #69,563
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:20pm Oct 10, 2017 11:20pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} My opinoin is that we see 115. before 110. we are waiting for 112.5 to harden and become support. then it should be a fast ride to 114.5 a short pause then breakout to 115.495. call me crazy, its what i remember. gap up and run goes and hangs out at an odd handle 50, for what seems like forever and a sell the whole time. then hold on once it hardens and becomes support.
You've seen this before? When and where? I understand that the same thing can essentially happen but with more variability. I'm waiting to have a retrace to 112.20 to get into a buy but according to your previous observation, it's not going to happen. Well, we should know by end of day.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #69,564
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:24pm Oct 10, 2017 11:24pm
Quoting darthPip
{quote} It languished in this 112.70/112.50 region for a good two weeks(with a few upsides followed by pullbacks) and nothing came out of that.
I know it drove me crazy last time i seen it in 2008. just wish i could find an example on the charts. there are just some lessons you never forget.
  • #69,565
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:33pm Oct 10, 2017 11:33pm
Quoting OHLC
{quote} You've seen this before? When and where? I understand that the same thing can essentially happen but with more variability. I'm waiting to have a retrace to 112.20 to get into a buy but according to your previous observation, it's not going to happen. Well, we should know by end of day.
id wait for a move above 112.5 then a retrace bact to it that looks like finally this time we putting this behind us, then it will try like hell to get through and cant the low is like 112.53-52. if it touches 112.499 get out at be. and wait for it again. the low was not as significant as support actually showing up where you thought it was in the first place and has not shown itself. 115.495 is valid because we have a previous high there above our last highs . thats the sweet spot. a lower over all double top from the previous highest high. and higher then the last 2 lower highs.
  • #69,566
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:42pm Oct 10, 2017 11:42pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
{quote} id wait for a move above 112.5 then a retrace bact to it that looks like finally this time we putting this behind us, then it will try like hell to get through and cant the low is like 112.53-52. if it touches 112.499 get out at be. and wait for it again. the low was not as significant as support actually showing up where you thought it was in the first place and has not shown itself.
I have a similar sentiment as yours. I think it will come back to 112.20 this week but I just can't guess about how high it's going to shoot up in the next day or two before coming back.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #69,567
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:45pm Oct 10, 2017 11:45pm
Quoting OHLC
{quote} I have a similar sentiment as yours. I think it will come back to 112.20 this week but I just can't guess about how high it's going to shoot up in the next day or two before coming back.
im thinking a mild retest of the recent high. or just above it. then 112.5 gets retested then its on. take half off at 114.5 than trail the rest.
  • #69,568
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:47pm Oct 10, 2017 11:47pm
Closed positions. I should know better then to short before confirmation.

DXY is floating just slightly above 50 DMA. I expect to be going long tomorrow @ 2PM for FOMC minutes which I expect will send this pair higher on "expectations of rate hikes". Still not convinced a sustained bullish move is possible however ATM with DXY above 50 DMA and room between that and 200 DMA, plus Fed minutes and a majority of retail net short at the moment, my conviction to be short myself has been put on pause. Will wait and see how FOMC mins affect price trend. Could spike up and close there or could spike up and repeat Fridays bull trap signalling with slightly more confidence that this is a price ceiling moving forward.

If we finally break this chop-whipsawzall-zone in either direction I plan to be on board. However i've had enough of entering without a confirmation one way or the other. No money without a good trend... Sitting on my hands for now and for who knows how long.
  • #69,569
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:59pm Oct 10, 2017 11:59pm
flat is the safest position to hold with uncertainty.
  • #69,570
  • Oct 11, 2017 12:57am Oct 11, 2017 12:57am
targeting recent lower trendline
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M5 for details.
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  • #69,571
  • Oct 11, 2017 1:20am Oct 11, 2017 1:20am
still survive from yesterday ;D
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  • #69,572
  • Oct 11, 2017 1:40am Oct 11, 2017 1:40am
So far we have the
4xjunkie and ohlc in the green camp
darthpip,nagamas,and Mr.yen In the red camp. and
mwfinad1211 is on the fence for now.

I will be back again tomorrow lets see what we get. if anyone wants to keep the tally going it would be great. the trade is which will price strike first from here. 115.495 or 107.5
  • #69,573
  • Oct 11, 2017 3:03am Oct 11, 2017 3:03am
Quoting 4xjunkie
So far we have the 4xjunkie and ohlc in the green camp darthpip,nagamas,and Mr.yen In the red camp. and mwfinad1211 is on the fence for now. I will be back again tomorrow lets see what we get. if anyone wants to keep the tally going it would be great. the trade is which will price strike first from here. 115.495 or 107.5
Hei, I'm longing, this is just a dip, such a long away upgoing
  • #69,574
  • Oct 11, 2017 3:43am Oct 11, 2017 3:43am
this 3 musketeers deserved good consideration

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  • #69,575
  • Oct 11, 2017 3:53am Oct 11, 2017 3:53am
Quoting OHLC
{quote} My intraday short hit target (after I moved it closer a couple of times) but I'm not trading USDJPY again. What a miserable pair to trade, taking too long to reach TP or SL. I'm going back to the beloved EURUSD. Good luck guys. {image}
No wonder, you got in the sideway hell. Apply BB to H4 to see the compression. Anyway, I still love the sakura
  • #69,576
  • Oct 11, 2017 5:45am Oct 11, 2017 5:45am
Quoting 4xjunkie
So far we have the 4xjunkie and ohlc in the green camp darthpip,nagamas,and Mr.yen In the red camp. and mwfinad1211 is on the fence for now. I will be back again tomorrow lets see what we get. if anyone wants to keep the tally going it would be great. the trade is which will price strike first from here. 115.495 or 107.5
Count me into the green camp.
  • #69,577
  • Oct 11, 2017 6:22am Oct 11, 2017 6:22am
Quoting NagaMas
{quote} No wonder, you got in the sideway hell. Apply BB to H4 to see the compression. Anyway, I still love the sakura
yeaah me too love naruto....wekwekwek
  • #69,578
  • Oct 11, 2017 6:28am Oct 11, 2017 6:28am
Quoting 4xjunkie
So far we have the 4xjunkie and ohlc in the green camp darthpip,nagamas,and Mr.yen In the red camp. and mwfinad1211 is on the fence for now. I will be back again tomorrow lets see what we get. if anyone wants to keep the tally going it would be great. the trade is which will price strike first from here. 115.495 or 107.5
we'll see tomorrow, after FOMC, history will always be repeated and of course usdjpy going towards 120.xx, l'm agree...and I like to live in red champ , makes me excited
  • #69,579
  • Oct 11, 2017 6:38am Oct 11, 2017 6:38am
i expect a big down move starting with US session... to hit my target
  • #69,580
  • Oct 11, 2017 6:50am Oct 11, 2017 6:50am
Re-Entry and i don't want close my fuvckin' position ...bring me in the red camp pleaseeeee
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