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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #69,461
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:23am Oct 10, 2017 12:23am
Quoting nealpek
yes
I hope you are right...I'm long on USDJPY too...could be consolidation for a huge upwards move....112.20 is not broken, 114 is still a possible target.
  • #69,462
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:23am Oct 10, 2017 12:23am
112.66, 112.62, 112.59 with S/L @ 113.029 with pending @ 112.20 and 111.90 Sl @ 112.599. For the record should price magically levitate past my stoploss I have no problem admitting I was wrong. We'll see. I suspect next large bearish wave will take us to atleast 110 if not 107 or below.

The $ just looks like a dead fish to me at the moment... pun intended lol
  • #69,463
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:24am Oct 10, 2017 12:24am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
{quote} I short weakness and buy strength. After U/J's spectacular failure to break out friday, coupled with price conveniently trending up all day yesterday, paired with a seeming inability to rise beyond even the most meager resistance points, I am obligated to take a short with good money management based on volatility and support/resistance. Edit to add: If I am wrong price will move opposite to my direction, hitting my stops. I am willing to accept a low win % because my wins, based on my statistics, are on average 3-10x greater then my losers....
You do know yesterday was a bank holiday, right?
  • #69,464
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:26am Oct 10, 2017 12:26am
Money, I had my eye on the 114's too! we'll see.....
  • #69,465
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:27am Oct 10, 2017 12:27am
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} You do know yesterday was a bank holiday, right?
If you look a couple pages back you'll see I acknowledged that during yesterdays session. So yes. Bank holiday for JPY and US banks.

And price trended up, perfectly setting us up for the present price action.
  • #69,466
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:32am Oct 10, 2017 12:32am
what price action are you referring to?
  • #69,467
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:32am Oct 10, 2017 12:32am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
112.66, 112.62, 112.59 with S/L @ 113.029 with pending @ 112.20 and 111.90 Sl @ 112.599. For the record should price magically levitate past my stoploss I have no problem admitting I was wrong. We'll see. I suspect next large bearish wave will take us to atleast 110 if not 107 or below. The $ just looks like a dead fish to me at the moment... pun intended lol
Man, you're essentially flat/a few pips otm. I understand we do like to support our trades so as to feel better and all (I am guilty of that as well), but essentially, UJ has been stuck in limbo. I really don't think there is much to discuss about this until something major really happens. Now it is just consolidating, upwards or downwards, no one truly knows. I'm still bias towards the bulls, but I acknowledge that I could be terribly wrong as well.
  • #69,468
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:33am Oct 10, 2017 12:33am
For large volume sellers to sell into rallies to fill orders.
  • #69,469
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:34am Oct 10, 2017 12:34am
Quoting nealpek
Money, I had my eye on the 114's too! we'll see.....
Yes, I'm holding my USDJPY longs, some as high as 113.34 (lol, was trying to catch the train then NK happened). Swap is being collected as well, so not that bad.
  • #69,470
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:34am Oct 10, 2017 12:34am
either way, tough call, thing I would prefer is to get a look at the bottom of the range...I did just spot a tiny R at 112.72, which could maybe allow a cheap entry to play for a move down...its all that looks cheap right now...I'm considering it...or look elsewhere I might...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #69,471
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:36am Oct 10, 2017 12:36am
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} Man, you're essentially flat/a few pips otm. I understand we do like to support our trades so as to feel better and all (I am guilty of that as well), but essentially, UJ has been stuck in limbo. I really don't think there is much to discuss about this until something major really happens. Now it is just consolidating, upwards or downwards, no one truly knows. I'm still bias towards the bulls, but I acknowledge that I could be terribly wrong as well.

And i'm not necessarily saying I'm right, I am however saying the price action witnessed over the last 2 weeks, in addition to current dollar weakness + price action is in my opinion, confirming my thesis that that there are large volume sellers attempting to fill as much volume as possible before next wave down. Not celebrating. I could be just as wrong. However until I see a rally at this point, with any legs whatsoever, that clears my stops, I am obliged to believe, trade, and follow through with my thesis.
  • #69,472
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:37am Oct 10, 2017 12:37am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
For large volume sellers to sell into rallies to fill orders.
Dude, nothing is happening to this pair lol.

Time to take a look at other pairings first. You have Swiss data in 8 minutes, Germany data in 23 minutes and GBP data in about 3 hours time. These are the pairs which will have big movements lol.
  • #69,473
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:38am Oct 10, 2017 12:38am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
{quote} And i'm not necessarily saying I'm right, I am however saying the price action witnessed over the last 2 weeks, in addition to current dollar weakness + price action is in my opinion, confirming my thesis that that there are large volume sellers attempting to fill as much volume as possible before next wave down. Not celebrating. I could be just as wrong. However until I see a rally at this point, with any legs whatsoever, that clears my stops, I am obliged to believe, trade, and follow through with my thesis.
Don't get me wrong either, I'm not saying your bearish call is wrong.

Just that I feel the movements thus far since Friday night in this pair has been....muted and unmeaningful. If you have been bullish on Friday before NK incident, you should still be. If you felt bearish on Friday before NK incident, you should still be.
  • #69,474
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:47am Oct 10, 2017 12:47am
This one is a tough call. Tokyo, london and ny opens are very close together
  • #69,475
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:49am Oct 10, 2017 12:49am
like waiting for paint to dry, lol
  • #69,476
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:52am Oct 10, 2017 12:52am
Quoting nealpek
like waiting for paint to dry, lol
Exactly. Oh well, Frankfurt opens in 7 minutes, not sure if they would be keen to push this pairing, be it up or down.
  • #69,477
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:54am Oct 10, 2017 12:54am
I'm probably wrong, but my signals say up...
  • #69,478
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:57am Oct 10, 2017 12:57am
Quoting nealpek
I'm probably wrong, but my signals say up...
If it makes you feel better the majority of retail traders are net short, which makes me slightly nervous lol.
  • #69,479
  • Oct 10, 2017 1:01am Oct 10, 2017 1:01am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
{quote} If it makes you feel better the majority of retail traders are net short, which makes me slightly nervous lol.
lol. thanks for helping me feel better.
  • #69,480
  • Oct 10, 2017 1:02am Oct 10, 2017 1:02am
All is good either way. Just stay safe....
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