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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #69,401
  • Edited 11:50pm Oct 8, 2017 11:34pm | Edited 11:50pm
http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_...0000000&mobile

just in.

No signs of provocation
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #69,402
  • Edited 1:59am Oct 9, 2017 1:23am | Edited 1:59am
Quoting darthPip
{quote} NK is yet to get factored in which will happen in a day or two Remember little kimmy is a trader too.He wont test his missiles when jap and american markets are closed EDIT:If I were Trump I would bomb the hell out of them tomorrow when all their leadership and half of their missiles are out there at the same place at the same time watching the parade
My original comment was in response to @SunTrader (aka fundamental-impact-denier), who doesn't think that this most recent drop had anything to do with the the article claiming NK would soon be testing a long range missile capable of hitting the US. Literally all pairs and all markets shit the bed less than a minute after that dropped, however, SunTrader insists that he knew from technical analysis that UJ (specifically) was going to drop hard, and it had absolutely nothing to do with fundamental events.
  • #69,403
  • Oct 9, 2017 3:25am Oct 9, 2017 3:25am
seeing some R near 112.82, might give this scenario a go....risk a few...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 55 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #69,404
  • Oct 9, 2017 6:12am Oct 9, 2017 6:12am
I have two short positions since last week. The pair is range-bound but the upward trend appears exhausted. I think there will be a move to the downside this week.
  • #69,405
  • Oct 9, 2017 7:22am Oct 9, 2017 7:22am
Next destination, 112.80.
  • #69,406
  • Oct 9, 2017 9:43am Oct 9, 2017 9:43am
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} Really? Really?? If you knew it was going to happen and it had nothing to do with NK then why didn't you trade it?
WTF are you talking about. Knew what would happen? NK? I didn't know beforehand obbbbbbviously but the point I have been making since "day one" is I don't care whether or not it happened. Price is all that matters.
  • #69,407
  • Oct 9, 2017 9:58am Oct 9, 2017 9:58am
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} My original comment was in response to @SunTrader (aka fundamental-impact-denier), who doesn't think that this most recent drop had anything to do with the the article claiming NK would soon be testing a long range missile capable of hitting the US. Literally all pairs and all markets shit the bed less than a minute after that dropped, however, SunTrader insists that he knew from technical analysis that UJ (specifically) was going to drop hard, and it had absolutely nothing to do with fundamental events.
Umm there is this thing called trend. Maybe you heard about.

As the following image clearly shows the trend is down. Granted UJ has been holding up the "best" of the bunch but it obviously has gone nowhere, except up and down for almost two weeks. Friday was a Shooting Star BTW. Why is that if everyone is so fixated on Little Kimmy?

And stop with the "less than a minute" nonsense. No chart anywhere shows that and you know it.
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  • #69,408
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:00am Oct 9, 2017 10:00am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
U/J showing consistent repeated patterns. Long, slow waves up (raillies) followed by quick bearish selling traveling larger relative price distances indicative of large sell volume and and small-to-minuscule buy volume. Sellers selling into rallies attempting to fill as much volume before sending price inevitably lower. Still think U/J long term is headed down but I wouldn't rule out a few more stop-hunts up, through-out the week to gain some liquidity. I also highly doubt any big move either direction beyond H/L points will occur in the next 18...
+ 1
  • #69,409
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:02am Oct 9, 2017 10:02am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
U/J showing consistent repeated patterns. Long, slow waves up (raillies) followed by quick bearish selling traveling larger relative price distances indicative of large sell volume and and small-to-minuscule buy volume. Sellers selling into rallies attempting to fill as much volume before sending price inevitably lower. Still think U/J long term is headed down but I wouldn't rule out a few more stop-hunts up, through-out the week to gain some liquidity. I also highly doubt any big move either direction beyond H/L points will occur in the next 18...
well considering how weak dollar has been... and then how all the drops in UJ come from NK threat... which is then quickly bought up anyway... i beg to differ. you may be right but to me its going higher
  • #69,410
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:40am Oct 9, 2017 10:40am
Sold some more at 112.70 in the morning
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #69,411
  • Oct 9, 2017 11:06am Oct 9, 2017 11:06am
Have to wait and see what happens tomorrow with North Korea

http://www.news.com.au/world/kim-jon...e12f8f7e614c1e

If nothing happens, then maybe the pair will retrace the losses from Friday
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #69,412
  • Edited 11:56am Oct 9, 2017 11:11am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Umm there is this thing called trend. Maybe you heard about. As the following image clearly shows the trend is down. Granted UJ has been holding up the "best" of the bunch but it obviously has gone nowhere, except up and down for almost two weeks. Friday was a Shooting Star BTW. Why is that if everyone is so fixated on Little Kimmy? And stop with the "less than a minute" nonsense. No chart anywhere shows that and you know it. {image}
Your TA is a joke. UJ was trading in a narrow range after NFP and before the FOMC speeches. You drew one trendline on a cropped chart to support your theory that UJ broke-out before the news event. No it didn't, it was in a predicable holding-pattern. And now you want to show daily charts to backup your stance that there was no fundamental knee-jerk minutes after the story dropped?

I'm beginning to think this is just a troll account because who in their right mind would ignore all the evidence... we're talking multiple news stories of how this event effected multiple markets, charts in lower TF, spike volume on futures contracts and double tick volume on forex...

To say that this spike had nothing to do with NK because of a couple hand-drawn trend-lines is the most delusional thing I've ever seen in 10 years on FF. You must be the hand of God in the market. What will you make happen next?

Quote
No chart anywhere shows that and you know it.
Literally every chart shows it. USDJPY, XAU, SPX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, DXY, etc, etc.
  • #69,413
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:55pm Oct 9, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting Nicholishen
...... we're talking multiple news stories of how this event effected multiple markets, ....
.... multiple journalists flapping their gums .. just like you.

Keep paying attention to the news instead of the markets and we will wondering (not really) why you are no longer here, soon enough.
  • #69,414
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:59pm Oct 9, 2017 12:59pm
you won't win I'm surprised he showed a chart at all normally it's just negative nanny comments

yea i just remembered last year gold was in a downtrend


Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} Your TA is a joke. UJ was trading in a narrow range after NFP and before the FOMC speeches. You drew one trendline on a cropped chart to support your theory that UJ broke-out before the news event. No it didn't, it was in a predicable holding-pattern. And now you want to show daily charts to backup your stance that there was no fundamental knee-jerk minutes after the story dropped? I'm beginning to think this is just a troll account because who in their right mind would ignore all the evidence... we're talking multiple news stories of how...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #69,415
  • Oct 9, 2017 1:06pm Oct 9, 2017 1:06pm
looks like major consolidation to me on any time frame that matters to a day trader
with the edge to hit that up tl
Attached Image
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #69,416
  • Oct 9, 2017 1:31pm Oct 9, 2017 1:31pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} .... multiple journalists flapping their gums .. just like you. Keep paying attention to the news instead of the markets and we will wondering (not really) why you are no longer here, soon enough.
I sold the top of UJ because it was hitting obvious resistance. Did you trade it? I see you do a lot of Monday morning QB, but do you ever have any real skin in the game?

Everyone knew from a technical standpoint there was multiple confluences of resistance, but nobody (including yourself) knew that it would tank that hard that fast on news of NK missile test. Flapping lips move markets. Big-money knows this and employs thousand of Quants to have the ability to monitor all metrics of sentiment and make trades in micro-seconds. Not Days, hours, minutes.... micro-seconds. You are a fool to think that you're competing with simpleton adversaries that don't have these capabilities.

I have no idea why you picked this hill to die on... Your TA is poor and laden with confirmation bias. Your argument is predicated on beliefs instead of evidence, which runs contrary to all charts, volumes, and fundamentals. It's funny how you pick yen pairs to prove yen was in an uptrend, which demonstrates an ignorance of how pairs work. When EU has a higher negative slope than EJ it means that UJ is trending upward.

Lastly, I made an offer earlier in the thread... so how about we both shut-up and put-up, and you take me up on one 2017.10.31 swap @ 112 - 50 BIT/pip & 10,000 BIT cap. You in? Or do you just want to keep being captain hind-sight?
  • #69,417
  • Oct 9, 2017 1:39pm Oct 9, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting Bones
looks like major consolidation to me on any time frame that matters to a day trader with the edge to hit that up tl {image}
We've been trading at the 50 yard line for the past couple of weeks.
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  • #69,418
  • Oct 9, 2017 2:15pm Oct 9, 2017 2:15pm
Ive had to dig out the post and plot the tl on my UJ chart
but now there is a tl
go figure bounced straight off it as appose to made up tech


Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Thanks for answering, incorrectly, for me. Try not to do it again. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 500 uj Screenshot 2017-10-09_20-13-04.png Size: 79 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #69,419
  • Oct 9, 2017 2:33pm Oct 9, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting Nicholishen
Big-money knows this and employs thousand of Quants to have the ability to monitor all metrics of sentiment and make trades in micro-seconds. .......
From an article I just read two days ago (sorry won't type the whole thing for you - most likely you will dismiss it anyway but it is the Oct Modern Trader magazine if you care to pick up a copy. I recommend it. It is a hysterical but accurate dress-down of Wall Street):

"How ironic that Bloomberg is reporting that most of the Quant strategies adopted by assets managers aren't generating any quantifiable positive returns, let alone alpha. Allow me to explain in a moment of schadenfreude.

For years I've listen to tedious, unproven projections and inflated rhetoric about the promise of big data, quantamental strategies, roboadvisors, machine learning, web scraping, and artificial intelligence.

...............

Corporations are not people. And neither are computers. SIRI is not your friend, and your Japanese sex bot is not your wife. It is not cutting-edge to stick your hand inside a puppet and then have the puppet tell you what to do."

LMAO

You are the one in a hole and should stop digging and pay more attention to price.
  • #69,420
  • Edited 2:47pm Oct 9, 2017 2:35pm | Edited 2:47pm
there's a lesson here ,it took that long to hit that tl to the pip
if your drawing through price your wrong ,there is no up to me rules
the most simple tool
Attached Image
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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