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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,301
  • Oct 9, 2017 9:00am Oct 9, 2017 9:00am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Maybe brunettes?
lol
if you know that, you have an statistical edge
  • #1,302
  • Oct 9, 2017 9:02am Oct 9, 2017 9:02am
  • #1,303
  • Oct 9, 2017 9:53am Oct 9, 2017 9:53am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Average hold on one of my strategies which is described in my thread is 11 days....but yes...I haven't forayed much into timeframes less than say M30. I diversify with anything I do...it is just a habit of mine borne from my dislike of risk events and the need to be in control. I like to win and plan for it.... and as a result, force the outcome by looking for solutions that lie outside the realms of luck and slip into the world of return via managed risk.
This is a great information too ... 11 days is a long time if our target can not be reached yet, how big was the draw down ? Do you use hedging for this order, or it was without stop loss at all ? How big is the risk for each order to trade with this strategy ?
About the ratio of K calculation, we can not expect an exact value (ex. until 2 or 3 decimals point), so how big the tolerance in order the equilibrium definition is valid ? Gracias C ...
I am failed,but i found 1,000 ways that won't work ...
  • #1,304
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:04am Oct 9, 2017 10:04am
Quoting despacito7
{quote} This is a great information too ... 11 days is a long time if our target can not be reached yet, how big was the draw down ? Do you use hedging for this order, or it was without stop loss at all ? How big is the risk for each order to trade with this strategy ? About the ratio of K calculation, we can not expect an exact value (ex. until 2 or 3 decimals point), so how big the tolerance in order the equilibrium definition is valid ? Gracias C ...
Hi D :-)

Trade risk is fixed fractional at 1.0% of trade capital (equity). It has been tested over 7 years from Jan 2010 to 31 Aug 2017 with a total of 1183 trades taken. Given it is a discretionary system, I had to go with that.

All the stats are in the snapshots below. The technique is described in my thread but start at here if you want to avoid a very long winded read :-)

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  • #1,305
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:08am Oct 9, 2017 10:08am
Hats off to you, Copernicus! I can't even balance a cheque book,lol
  • #1,306
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:10am Oct 9, 2017 10:10am
Quoting nealpek
Hats off to you, Copernicus! I can't even balance a cheque book,lol
Cheers mate. A misspent youth where I probably lack many skills you have mate. I just wish more folk here were into diversification. Not many to chat with in here about it. It's a shame because it can be superimposed on what everyone does in here. :-)
  • #1,307
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:15am Oct 9, 2017 10:15am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Cheers mate. A misspent youth where I probably lack many skills you have mate. I just wish more folk here were into diversification. Not many to chat with in here about it. It's a shame because it can be superimposed on what everyone does in here. :-)
When assessing my trading strategies, i simply focus on "pipcurve" putting a dollar towards each pip. I also only focus on signal quality and strength with a life span of just one candle duration on which the trade is triggered and measure all my stats based on that. Simple and accurate imo. If you try to move SL to BE and hold on for days, its decays the overall performance because now you are introducing the element of unknown from your backrest into forward test...resulting in confidence decay "for me". To me, knowing is believing via a more scientific objective way. Just my 2 cents bro
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,308
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:18am Oct 9, 2017 10:18am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} When assessing my trading strategies, i simply focus on "pipcurve" putting a dollar towards each pip. I also only focus on signal quality and strength with a life span of just one candle duration on which the trade is triggered and measure all my stats based on that. Simple and accurate imo.
Nice mate. If it works for your strategy then simple is best. I am a anal inquisitor that needs to look at problems from multiple angles. :-)
  • #1,309
  • Edited 12:03pm Oct 9, 2017 10:24am | Edited 12:03pm
Copernicus, Diversification and compounding are the keys to wealth over time.
  • #1,310
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:27am Oct 9, 2017 10:27am
Quoting nealpek
Copernicus, Diversification and compounding are the keys to wealth over time. The charts I post are snapshots of shorter term opportunities I take advantage of. I have long term plays in currencies, stocks, reits, etc, spread out to capture parts of many different markets. My favorite long term play is waiting for the banks to pull out of the Dow, cause massive pain to all involved, and catch stocks trading at 1-20% of their value as a recession is induced. Just wait the next 7-9 years doing nothing, and 6x-10x my money. From the last 2009 cleaning,...
Great stuff N. Another scavenger of opportunities like me. I must admit I am looking forward for a bit of chaos to return to the markets :-)
  • #1,311
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:38am Oct 9, 2017 10:38am
Quoting nealpek
Copernicus, Diversification and compounding are the keys to wealth over time. The charts I lost are snapshots of shorter term opportunities I take advantage of. I have long term plays in currencies, stocks, reits, etc, spread out to capture parts of many different markets. My favorite long term play is waiting for the banks to pull out of the Dow, cause massive pain to all involved, and catch stocks trading at 1-20% of their value as a recession is induced. Just wait the next 7-9 years doing nothing, and 6x-10x my money. From the last 2009 cleaning,...
Will you go short via ETFs or wait for dips and get back on the ride?
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,312
  • Oct 9, 2017 10:40am Oct 9, 2017 10:40am
Quoting nealpek
It'll happen Copernicus, the wealthy have been doing it to the poor forever. Right now the Dow(my indicator) is dancing on the head of a pin! Only the slightest nudge will topple the whole pile. This is what I'm waiting for, and it will happen, guaranteed!! It's how the wealthy, create more wealth! What a concept!!! I get calls from my buddies almost daily, asking me when they should get out,lol
There is a reason why they promote 401Ks and dollar cost averaging. Lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,313
  • Oct 9, 2017 11:04am Oct 9, 2017 11:04am
When I see Cramer banging on his BUY, BUY, BUY button with companies trading at 15- 20x earnings, and the dow at 22,500 with real u.s. unemployment at 15-20%, I get goose bumps thinking of the people buying at the top of the market, at the end of a prolonged up cycle. Scary!!
  • #1,314
  • Oct 9, 2017 11:37am Oct 9, 2017 11:37am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Cheers mate. A misspent youth where I probably lack many skills you have mate. I just wish more folk here were into diversification. Not many to chat with in here about it. It's a shame because it can be superimposed on what everyone does in here. :-)
You're posting very good stuff Copernicus, maybe you just would need a simple ruled method to make your trading decisions more mechanical, so that you could be more confident to increase your risk%; this would lead you to higher profits.
  • #1,315
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:07pm Oct 9, 2017 12:07pm
Although diversification and compounding are interesting topics, too, I'd like to come back to the topic of this thread. In the very beginning of it there was a discussion on either using a fixed or a moving reference point. I've thought we could use both. And thus, I've hacked a bounded MA which is calculated over the period of an hour (highlighted in the background) while keeping the anchoring point (the first M1 candle of the H1 bar) constant. With the open and the moving reference line it is now much easier to see where prize may go. Any comments?
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  • #1,316
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:12pm Oct 9, 2017 12:12pm
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} You're posting very good stuff Copernicus, maybe you just would need a simple ruled method to make your trading decisions more mechanical, so that you could be more confident to increase your risk%; this would lead you to higher profits.
It’s hard because it’s easy.
  • #1,317
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:15pm Oct 9, 2017 12:15pm
Anti, If a reference point moves, it is no longer there to be referred to in the future!
  • #1,318
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:17pm Oct 9, 2017 12:17pm
Quoting AntiCre
And thus, I've hacked a bounded MA which is calculated over the period of an hour (highlighted in the background) while keeping the anchoring point (the first M1 candle of the H1 bar) constant. With the open and the moving reference line it is now much easier to see where prize may go. Any comments? {image}
this is similar to the usage of vwap indicator on the daily scale. Vwap (volume weighted average price) is the anchored volume-weighted moving average.
Sometimes it can be used with the volume profile indicator, on which one can read off a price at which there was a volume max (so called point of control, POC). If VWAP>POC, that means that the volume distribution is extended upwards, and one should only consider buying, and vice versa.
k
  • #1,319
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:18pm Oct 9, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} this is similar to the usage of vwap indicator on the daily scale. Vwap (volume weighted average price) is the anchored volume-weighted moving average. Sometimes it can be used with the volume profile indicator, on which one can read off a price at which there was a volume max (so called point of control, POC). If VWAP>POC, that means that the volume distribution is extended upwards, and one should only consider buying, and vice versa. k
see here (sorry for two posts, on my mobile and it renders the comments box strangely)
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...-weighted.html
  • #1,320
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:38pm Oct 9, 2017 12:38pm
Quoting nealpek
Anti, If a reference point moves, it is no longer there to be referred to in the future!
Well, yes. But I think it can be used in the presence in order to see the net result of buyers/sellers?!
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