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  • #1,201
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:27am Oct 7, 2017 10:27am
Human beings belong to nature and are part of it, therefore we cannot create anything out of nature; we only can uncover what nature is and build our stuff applying its laws.
Perception and knowledge are very different things, albeit they are correlated so that the right perception leads to the right knowledge and understanding; a wrong perception leads to no where.
  • #1,202
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:28am Oct 7, 2017 10:28am
AntiCre, I have posted successful trades over and over again on this thread which pisses a lot of traders off to prove a point. All the psychobabble I read on these threads is just a substitute for traders who don’t understand the markets. What I try to show them, is that regardless of all the theories, the markets are very tradable day after day, when properly understood. When price goes from point a to point b, I will not argue that the price can get there in a random fashion. But the arrival to point b was a purposeful and deterministic move that I patiently wait for to then execute a trade with a high “probability” of success, as witnessed by my posted charts. There ‘s that word probability again. I definitely use probability in my trading as well, just not in the same way most here do!
  • #1,203
  • Edited 10:43am Oct 7, 2017 10:31am | Edited 10:43am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Mate....trust me when I say this. I am no guru and still have my trainer wheels on in portfolio management. Enough to make a good living but not enough to be regarded as a good pro. I may have a solution for you which is right up your alley in terms of what I think is your trading philosophy. I just need to turn the non forex instruments off and get your required result. Leave it with me for a bit....and I will get back to you.
Thanks C. Yeah. I can trade only FX majors and crosses (either 28 pairs with chf or 21 without chf). Also turn off hedging if you can with relative ease. FIFO is a MOFO but i can handle it with Oanda using different position size. Not ideal though. My drawdown and profit potential scenarios work far better outside of US regulations. I also do not touch pegged currencies like hkd, sgd and CFDs (metals,oil,index, stocks etc) with retail brokers.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,204
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:39am Oct 7, 2017 10:39am
Quoting strongtrader
Human beings belong to nature and are part of it, therefore we cannot create anything out of nature; we only can uncover what nature is and build our stuff applying its laws. Perception and knowledge are very different things, albeit they are correlated so that the right perception leads to the right knowledge and understanding; a wrong perception leads to no where.
Not everything can be uncovered. CP talked a lot about that the market behaves like light: There can be a trend and there can be no trend at the same time (in the same was as light can be understood as wave but also as particle. The world is built up of subatomic particles. And also their behaviour cannot be described fully (quantum indeterminancy). Yes, the whole can be more than the sum of its parts, but physical indeterministic properties of the particles of the whole will also make it partly indeterministic.

Quoting nealpek
AntiCre, I have posted successful trades over and over again on this thread which pisses a lot of traders off to prove a point. All the psychobabble I read on these threads is just a substitute for traders who don’t understand the markets.
Oh, a déjà-vu. Yes, you are right. Since I don't see what you see I have to stick to what I believe ...

Do you have a 100 % success rate? Why not?

Let us accept each other's points of view.
  • #1,205
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:41am Oct 7, 2017 10:41am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} It depends on the semantic meaning of "randomly". Maybe there are forces that make the market up to a particular degree deterministic. However, there still is a random component. And most of these external forces are also random in terms that you don't know when they occur.
Go find the biggest guy possible and randomly slap him really hard around his face -> i think what will happen next is much more deterministic than if you just walked by him Nevertheless, he may simply look at you and start crying, so its still not a guarantee.

Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Ok!! This is what means to think different; focus on the solution, not on the problem!
Very true, if there are 20 things that you cannot control, why take it into account? ego. Focus on what you can control.
  • #1,206
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:49am Oct 7, 2017 10:49am
Quoting nealpek
AntiCre, I have posted successful trades over and over again on this thread which pisses a lot of traders off to prove a point. All the psychobabble I read on these threads is just a substitute for traders who don’t understand the markets. What I try to show them, is that regardless of all the theories, the markets are very tradable day after day, when properly understood. When price goes from point a to point b, I will not argue that the price can get there in a random fashion. But the arrival to point b was a purposeful and deterministic move...
Sorry to ask you this as i have not looked at your posts Neal. You don't have to share the details....I just want to know if you are trading profitably and consistently for 3+yrs with max monthly DD of under 15% from peak to trough equity curve (not balance curve)? If yes, 1) how many max number of trades do you have open at any given time 2) your average profit and loss in pips 3) average trade duration and 4) winrate% although it is not relevant to me.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,207
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:56am Oct 7, 2017 10:56am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} Go find the biggest guy possible and randomly slap him really hard around his face -> i think what will happen next is much more deterministic than if you just walked by him Nevertheless, he may simply look at you and start crying, so its still not a guarantee. {quote} Very true, if there are 20 things that you cannot control, why take it into account? ego. Focus on what you can control.
It seems that some people that stick to look outside the box are that much bound to the box's outside that they forgot the behaviour the people living inside the box are used to have. I will no longer comment to your posts ...
  • #1,208
  • Oct 7, 2017 11:13am Oct 7, 2017 11:13am
Again I did not intend to upset anyone with my words. Context is hard to distinguish in text form. No offence to anyone. If what you do works, I am not here to judge your success. My thoughts are more for the struggling traders out there....
  • #1,209
  • Oct 7, 2017 12:56pm Oct 7, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting Rparm
{quote} VEEFX you my friend have a solid understanding of what to look for and why. Simply find constant parameters that compliment each other and Market Edge is further refined every time. Keep it up nice work. I applaud all of you that are capable, or are atleast trying to understand what I am sharing in regards to Market Constants/Biases/Edges. Dear user RondaRousey, whether you believe in Market Constants or not doesn't change the fact that they do exist, until you look at tick data and compare it's characteristics to random data you will have...

That post deserves lots of appriciation... really gold to me, I have been working on a similar concept, but I was using candle sticks, that one tick on the opposite direction is what we need to focus, and then we can use single candel to find higher edge...
  • #1,210
  • Oct 7, 2017 2:25pm Oct 7, 2017 2:25pm
like all threads on forex factory, just a waste of time why? Because if you draw a line on a chart anywhere 50 guys will say that's a good idea than 50 more will
say that won't work.
so whos, right? no one or everyone?
  • #1,211
  • Edited Oct 8, 2017 1:25am Oct 7, 2017 7:12pm | Edited Oct 8, 2017 1:25am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks C. Yeah. I can trade only FX majors and crosses (either 28 pairs with chf or 21 without chf). Also turn off hedging if you can with relative ease. FIFO is a MOFO but i can handle it with Oanda using different position size. Not ideal though. My drawdown and profit potential scenarios work far better outside of US regulations. I also do not touch pegged currencies like hkd, sgd and CFDs (metals,oil,index, stocks etc) with retail brokers.
Good points mate.

In regards to the current version of EDTT I supplied in my prior post which I think might be right down your alley:

1. I never hedge with the same instrument as it is a pointless exercise of simply doubling the frictional cost of spread to the exercise. This is where I always look at trade 'efficiency' in terms of the search for an edge as you need to strip away all inefficiencies to find it. Refer to Hanover's posts about the issues of hedging the same instrument as he so expertly nails the issue in his advice. I hedge in terms of return streams (equity curves) only which is a different beast that applies principles of offsets via the degree of correlation between return streams of different instruments.

2. I can see your point regarding pegged currencies. I saw it even better with the Swissy collapse on de-pegging a while back....*ouch* :-)

3. CFD's however if you can find a good broker are a fantastic instrument that have their downsides but in terms of my objectives....actually are a god send to me and a preferable tool to futures despite the higher transactional costs. This is where I extract a bit of pay back from brokers who are market makers from deploying some of the principles I use...*need to keep a bit mum on this*. The bottom line is that with principles of portfolio blending...you are not seeking the instruments with the best return. You are searching for instruments that offer the best blended relationships with the portfolio. Your ultimate return is constructed and not a given derived from the market. In principle under portfolio management you can *within limits* construct whatever equity curve you like. That's why we are getting more and more CTA replicators in the Fund Management space who do not need to understand the underlying strategy used, but rather can replicate the equity curves of the competition using portfolio blending principles. :-)

Have a look at this guy mate....one of the best Portfolio managers I know (Andreas Clenow). He can mimic the equity curves of the big players through his understanding of how to construct a portfolio correctly. Can you see the skill in this and can you see that this skill is applied and not simply a *lucky strike*.

Now most of us simply settle on the assumption that an equity curve is the final result of a process or more precisely, an outcome. A good portfolio manager starts with this final result and then creates his own desired result based on his clients objectives. The strategy deployed is actually simply a means to the end. You do not need much alpha at all to be able to craft an outcome of your choosing. We as retail traders see the strategy itself as the end and waste so much breath on the best strategy or in selecting an optimised outcome which in reality is the fools errand as you are simply curve fitting to the past.

For a retail trader who is not familiar with this process...they just scratch their head looking at the final composite and say..."how the *bleep* did they do that? I find simply getting an equity curve with an edge is hard enough in itself"? This is where the illusion lies as the Magician has simply crafted this result by exploiting a weak bias across a broad range of instruments, timeframes and systems to achieve the desired outcome (which is easier to find than what the retail trader is looking for). Do not look at the outcome. Look at the process.....It is the same principle deployed by Penn and Teller and you just know that the devil is in the detail. Understand the process and the illusion vaporizes.

Portfolio managers turn volatile equity curves into straight lines or add curves here and there *deliberately* but as retail traders we tend to only see the straight line equity curve via Martingale strategies.....but there are other ways to do this with managed risk.

Portfolio Managers are sculptors (well actually reverse engineers) where we as retail traders are the 'clay' *sniggers*

It is by no coincidence that all the best fund managers in the world are diversified (even Buffett though he doesn't want to admit it and give the game away). There are no examples I can find of guys who beat them with a single instrument or strategy....and believe me when I say I look. The reason for this is that you can control the game through diversification whereas you are at the mercy of the market if you don't. We should be looking at all the 'controllable' ways we can achieve an edge that outperforms the frictional costs of trading. If you have an exploitable opportunity then for gods sake use it....otherwise you are simply a punter. I am less strident in my condemnation of gamblers than you mate as many of the skills I have learnt come from a strong foundation and experience with gambling techniques. The professional gambler is a different beast to the punter....just as the professional trader is a different beast to the average retail trader.

I personally feel that all traders should commence their careers in the casino (not the virtual casino)....as this is the battlefield where you learn to exploit opportunity of bias wherever you can find it as the game is so hard when the house edge in general is against you. You need to understand process before you can apply ways to exploit bias within it. You will find this in the casino but you won't find this in the virtual casino as the key is to understand the system aka Sherlock Holmes (the croupiers, the management, the rules of engagement, the game itself and whether any of the biases we know exist in a deterministic system is exploitable etc etc etc..

I am going to yell this out to someone who might be reading...."You should be in this game as well mate...because I know you just love your games of 'brain teasing'. It's an easier game for an engineer like you than the game of FA..though you can add this principle on top of FA or any technique that generates a return stream. Think of all those countless great EA's you have developed over your lifetime that are currently collecting cobwebs. This approach gives you a method to resurrect the phoenix from the ashes and get a bit of payback at last."

IMO everyone actually should be applying these same principles to 'any complex system' including these financial markets.

C
  • #1,212
  • Edited Oct 8, 2017 1:29am Oct 7, 2017 7:28pm | Edited Oct 8, 2017 1:29am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Sorry to ask this.... Any reason why you would exclude swaps/spreads/slippage from your backtests and forward tests ? I deduct 5 pips from my trade outcome across all pairs/timeframes to factor the trading costs into determination of the overall trading strategy outcome.
It is simply a habit of mine while in testing to separate out all the added broker variables to see what the underlying price data is doing in terms of defining an edge.

For example I test always using non-compounding strategies to start with (not reinvesting profits back into the strategy) to see how the unfettered strategy stacks up against alternative strategies of mine in terms of raw price data.

I then include frictional costs that are broker specific. That way I can examine the impact of different brokers applied to the same strategy.

I then settle on the broker for my solution......and add back in the transactional costs with assumed conservative costs applying an assumed worst case scenario in terms of current spread, SWAP etc. to pitch a conservative outcome

....and then add slippage which is inevitable but different for different strategies. For example under the EDTT, slippage is quite high as it is trading breakouts...namely during those times when slippage is higher than normal.

....and finally I compound the result to see how the sequence of trades impact on overall CAGR and drawdown.

The process above is more conservative than a process of simply relying on the net profit result of trades from any particular broker and gives way more info to a portfolio blender that is useful for blending exercises.

Having a database to store this info for testing purposes is pretty essential mate as you compile your portfolio result through interrogating price data and all it's added variables. I am a bit like a 'bower bird' in that I horde equity curves that most people simply throw away. You never know what might be useful to plug a drawdown gap in your portfolio.
  • #1,213
  • Oct 7, 2017 8:12pm Oct 7, 2017 8:12pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} It is simply a habit of mine while in testing to separate out all the added broker variables to see what the underlying price data is doing in terms of defining an edge. For example I test always using non-compounding strategies to start with (not reinvesting profits back into the strategy) to see how the unfettered strategy stacks up against alternative strategies of mine in terms of raw price data. I then include frictional costs that are broker specific. That way I can examine the impact of different brokers applied to the same strategy....
Thanks bro. Wouldn't you describe what you do as similar to a "Fund of Funds"approach to portfolio management ? Not many can do what you are doing so kudos for that.

"I horde equity curves that most people simply throw away".... To do this, you must require a common set of parameters or characteristics. I just need tokl know what are your standard timelines for each of the curves? 1yr, 3yrs, 5 yrs etc. to 'curve fit' the equity curves into your desired master equity curve. I have tons of equity curves that i have discarded because of my drawdown goal lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,214
  • Edited 8:38pm Oct 7, 2017 8:23pm | Edited 8:38pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks bro. Wouldn't you describe what you do as similar to a "Fund of Funds"approach to portfolio management ? Not many can do what you are doing so kudos for that.
Yep mate but it is all semantics when you are sculpting an equity curve. In other words I can use these principles across anything that gives me a return stream in terms of return and risk. My only required mandate is that the return stream is derived from a liquid instrument or liquid composite. How that equity curve is compiled from it's composite return streams is the key....and not whether those composite equity curves are grouped or singular by nature.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} "I horde equity curves that most people simply throw away".... To do this, you must require a common set of parameters or characteristics. I just need tokl know what are your standard timelines for each of the curves? 1yr, 3yrs, 5 yrs etc. to 'curve fit' the equity curves into your desired master equity curve
It is not the variables mate but the return streams themselves. It is how your strategy responds to market conditions as opposed to breaking it down in terms of timeframe, instrument etc.

For example if you give me an equity curve (of an unseen strategy) and market price data I then superimpose that equity curve on top of the market data and see when the strategy performs and when it doesn't perform. I then interrogate my unknown system in terms of logic to understand why it performed and why it didn't perform. That logic then tells me what I need in terms of a complementary return stream to plug the weaknesses.It tells me what I need and then I can design the result through a billion ways whether by instrument, timeframe or strategy design itself.

Once you build experience in this you know when to treat an equity curve seriously. I can spot BS from a mile off that you may see on this forum.

I then look to my database of treasures to find that solution that plugs the gap. I don't actually need to define the strategy or the variables first. Once I have a solution to plug the gap, that's when I then investigate the why of the new return stream in terms of the logic of the strategy.

I use design logic as opposed to 'optimization' of variables to achieve the outcome. That way I have control rather than being dictated terms by the market. This is what risk management is about.

Does that make sense?
  • #1,215
  • Oct 7, 2017 8:56pm Oct 7, 2017 8:56pm
i dont know what you people discussing....may be i am not bright enough to absorb lot of information

so this is my conclusion after reading all thread.....

higher edge to predict next candle here
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  • #1,216
  • Edited 10:35pm Oct 7, 2017 9:55pm | Edited 10:35pm
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Very good post Copernicus, albeit I'm wondering whether we are beginning to go beyond what we should.....not too many gifts?.......
You and I know that declaring this info is perfectly safe mate. We understand human nature. Only the inquisitive open minds or those who already have some of this knowledge will follow this through. This discussion is meant with good intent to give a possible leg up to those that have an inquiring mind. It will bear no fruit for the indoctrinated or the confused mind.

What we think we know often is the biggest roadblock and why we cannot learn from others. To save us retailers a lot of pain and a fruitless journey, you only have to refer to the successful of the past with a proven track record or a falsifiable theory and jump on their shoulders to see the view. For example it has taken over 70 years or so for most to even understand a fraction of relativity....and most still have it wrong...not by virtue of their supposed 'intelligence' but by the mind roadblocks that stand in their way and the detail they fail to observe which are clues to the bigger picture.

You can say this a thousand times and the indoctrinated won't get it. It was what was faced by Copernicus, Darwin, Dawkins, Einstein, Bohr, Hawkings .....and the list goes on. It is resistance to change, namely letting go of the shackles that bind you......that is the barrier. But hey, let's smoke some grass and start meditating and chanting and hide what people really fundamentally know but are unwilling to accept. That really is the inconvenient truth...for example Global Warming is just a symptom of general apathy from a thinking mind.....and the list of incoherent muddles of the mind just goes on and on in a repeating cycle:-)

Take a queue and listen to a master expose the frailties of a thinking mind while at the same time expose it's power if used correctly.

Inserted Video


Now here is another video to shroud the message of the prior video.

Inserted Video


Which video do you think would have more popular appeal on this forum and which would be avoided by the masses?

There lies human behaviour and why we can confidently share some 'supposed secret's' in public without worry of their rampant exploitation by the masses. We are therefore exploiting a well known edge that makes me confident I will last longer than others in this game.

QED
  • #1,217
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:39pm Oct 7, 2017 10:39pm
Quoting RondaRousey
So much garbage that has been posted. Basically if you have a fragile mind you are not fit to trade. It does not matter if you are a maths genius that can prove or disprove biases or randomness in the markets. You can give a profitable strategy to people that are fragile and they will blow up their account. If you cannot deal with the challenges, the randomness and the ass kicking that you get when you trade you will breakdown. It's only people with an antifragile mind and personality that are fit to trade. This is the reality of trading. Add me...
With a bit more explanation and the dropping of the open hostility I would call you a genius whether you like it or not. Why would I ignore a genius? It is not in my interests to do so...so you are stuck with me :-)
  • #1,218
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:47pm Oct 7, 2017 10:47pm
You can see clearly a FRUSTRATED LOSER TRADER a mile away
You can see the childish tantrums...

FF is like a Shopping mall, where everyone turns their heads
to look at the child exploding tantrums (FRUSTRATED LOSER TRADER).

Thanks to all who contributed to this thread
  • #1,219
  • Edited 1:37am Oct 8, 2017 1:26am | Edited 1:37am
Forexfactory what a brilliant platform to puff yourself by a thought how a generous person you are by giving information for in return of ego feeding.

There is a terminology in psychology.

" A man enjoy see others can't understand what he does "

It makes him bigger
It makes him feel bigger
It makes him feel useful

Its like a porsche staying on a red light near a 2009 model bmw... He is humble , But the feeling.

Humans are simple creatures. We lie ourselves more than others.
Take it easy.
  • #1,220
  • Oct 8, 2017 1:45am Oct 8, 2017 1:45am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Which video do you think would have more popular appeal on this forum and which would be avoided by the masses? There lies human behaviour and why we can confidently share some 'supposed secret's' in public without worry of their rampant exploitation by the masses. We are therefore exploiting a well known edge that makes me confident I will last longer than others in this game. QED
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