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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,221
  • Oct 8, 2017 1:50am Oct 8, 2017 1:50am
Quoting Quants
Forexfactory what a brilliant platform to puff yourself by a thought how a generous person you are by giving information for in return of ego feeding. There is a terminology in psychology. " A man enjoy see others can't understand what he does " It makes him bigger It makes him feel bigger It makes him feel useful Its like a porsche staying on a red light near a 2009 model bmw... He is humble , But the feeling. Humans are simple creatures. We lie ourselves more than others.
It is what feeds everyone. Even the supposed philanthropists. We are all fundamentally solipists. Welcome to the world of Ayn Rand.
I am not here out of goodwill for everyone. Do I really know everyone on this forum? Everyone is a taker in some shape or form. That is what drives a trader and what drives the human condition.....it is called Natural Selection. You may have heard of it.
  • #1,222
  • Oct 8, 2017 1:53am Oct 8, 2017 1:53am
Some of you math/systematic guys here may like this: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3031282

I have met the author few times and consider him very well versed in issues of systematic trading.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #1,223
  • Oct 8, 2017 1:53am Oct 8, 2017 1:53am
I don't give a f*ck if someone is profitable or successful or loser or genius or dumb or whatever. I post only for one reason....to seek answers relevant to my journey. I don't judge or let others judge me. I tell and convey what i have to, i read only what is relevant, I respond only to those who i want to communicate with, i ask only of things that I have pending on my plate and share what i want to share and delete most of my posts for them to longer on indefinitely. And that's truly the end of it. Read what you seek to read and ignore the rest. there is no need to try everything you read on forums. Develop your beliefs as building blocks and stick with it until you have exhausted all options before you move to your next endeavor. If you know what the pitfalls are, you will work towards finding solutions. If you don't rhen you never will. That's just how life is. Just take everything with a grain of salt !!!!
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,224
  • Oct 8, 2017 2:07am Oct 8, 2017 2:07am
Quoting stt
Some of you math/systematic guys here may like this: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3031282 I have met the author few times and consider him very well versed in issues of systematic trading.
I could only understand a little bit on curve fitting with backtesting because of its relevance. I dabbled a bit with ML and it became too much for me. It was sucking me deep into the bowels of what could be possible so i had to quickly pull myself out of jt. Its still a fascinating field for me but without the right infrastructure, it becomes challenging. I just don't think it is required to meet my goals.
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,225
  • Oct 8, 2017 3:23am Oct 8, 2017 3:23am
Quoting dogdays713
like all threads on forex factory, just a waste of time why? Because if you draw a line on a chart anywhere 50 guys will say that's a good idea than 50 more will say that won't work. so whos, right? no one or everyone?
There are no absolutes but relatives, therefore there is not a right or wrong; everything depends upon the perspective from which you look at things.
Also what you are exploiting here is not a case, you will always find such a kind of results in human behavior because the scheme is always the same not only in trading but in any field of our life.
The only reality you can see is the one you perceive and your perception is driven by your psychology, your beliefs and your convictions; be aware of those who dislike to know their psychology because it means that they are ego driven and ego always leads to a negative state which brings you to bad experiences and bad results, frustration and so on.
  • #1,226
  • Edited 4:34am Oct 8, 2017 3:49am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting VEEFX
Still some open questions... What is the best course of action when a max drawdown is hit? 1) stop trading for the rest of week/month/year but continue with the same strategy? 2) stop trading for the rest of week/month/year and tweak the strategy? 3) Continue trading the same strategy and lower risk, position size, exposure etc ? 4) ? Just trying to understand how pros deal with max DD limits.
Stop and reassess. Your max drawdown tolerance should be known in advance and used as a break point for your strategy. It means that conditions are more adverse than you expected. Reassess and rework a new strategy with a new max draw tolerance before you recommence the game. If you don't define it before you commence, then a max drawdown is just a painful loss with nothing to work with. It can mean more to you if your testing can define a quantifiable max drawdown tolerance and your strategy can comfortably work within it.

More here V

and here

and here with a good podcast.

C
  • #1,227
  • Oct 8, 2017 3:59am Oct 8, 2017 3:59am
Quoting simjo
i dont know what you people discussing....may be i am not bright enough to absorb lot of information so this is my conclusion after reading all thread..... higher edge to predict next candle here {image}
Great point. IMHO micro-trends will not live for a long time. Thus, the outcome (green/red) of the next candle will only be in line with the last micro-trend if the TF of the candles is short. For instance, a micro-trend will not be enough to guarantee that the candle of the next day will end green only because the last micro-trend in the current candle is up. But it may be enough to make some profit ...
  • #1,228
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:17am Oct 8, 2017 5:17am
Quoting VEEFX
Still some open questions... What is the best course of action when a max drawdown is hit? 1) stop trading for the rest of week/month/year but continue with the same strategy? 2) stop trading for the rest of week/month/year and tweak the strategy? 3) Continue trading the same strategy and lower risk, position size, exposure etc ? 4) ? Just trying to understand how pros deal with max DD limits.
There is not a written in stone answer: it depends upon you and your mind.
This is what I would do, maybe it can help you.
I would stop at least for a while and understand why it happened:
1- was it my mistake?
2- was it one of those so called black swains?
I'm absolutely confident with the effectiveness of my method (I would not trade it with real money if I wouldn't), so most often than not it would be the first one. Second step would be to understand what of my behavior caused me to make that mistake and think how avoid it to happen again in the future.
However for each new trade I open I already have made a complete plan which involves entry and risk management (exit is related to the kind of market I'm facing with), so that I know in advance my risk limit and I have accepted it fully.
Therefore if the worst case would happen it would be neutral for me.
  • #1,229
  • Oct 8, 2017 6:13am Oct 8, 2017 6:13am
Quoting VEEFX
Still some open questions... What is the best course of action when a max drawdown is hit? 1) stop trading for the rest of week/month/year but continue with the same strategy? 2) stop trading for the rest of week/month/year and tweak the strategy? 3) Continue trading the same strategy and lower risk, position size, exposure etc ? 4) ? Just trying to understand how pros deal with max DD limits.
Before it became a large DD it was a medium-sized DD, and before that it was small.

What I would recommend is to keep a journal with daily analysis of your performance, including identification of causes of every loss or missed opportunity.

By doing that you will know, long before the large DD, that you are off target, and you can take preventative action before the large DD happens.
  • #1,230
  • Oct 8, 2017 6:55am Oct 8, 2017 6:55am
Quoting Arturke
{quote} thank god i'm about 1-2 week already vegetarian.
I am a vegetarian since jan 1995... But I do wonder, why this tread is not discussing how exactly to take an advantage of the next candle? I think you should all focus on that one...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #1,231
  • Edited 9:06am Oct 8, 2017 8:45am | Edited 9:06am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} I am a vegetarian since jan 1995... But I do wonder, why this tread is not discussing how exactly to take an advantage of the next candle? I think you should all focus on that one...
The thread starter (Neio) created the thread based on one of my trading philosophy that he was curious about.
I answered it where the higher probability and where one should take advantage (it's been answered in the first 30pages of this thread also with other contributors).
It's a neon light flashing and not a blunt "BUY here and SELL here".
There are plenty in the system thread of "BUY here and SELL here" thread.

Unfortunately, I'm a nutcase, and no-one pays attention to me regarding my own trading approach, yet curious about it.
The consensus is >>> Don't ask Einstein about his theory of relativity, ask someone else. Ignore all of his posts.
CHECKMATE!!!
  • #1,232
  • Oct 8, 2017 8:56am Oct 8, 2017 8:56am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} The thread started (Neio) created the thread based on one of my trading philosophy that he was curious about. I answered it where the higher probability and where one should take advantage. It's a neon light flashing and not a blunt "BUY here and SELL here". There are plenty in the system thread of "BUY here and SELL here" thread. Unfortunately, I'm a nutcase, and no-one pays attention to me regarding my own trading approach, yet curious about it. The consensus is >>> Don't ask Einstein about his theory of relativity, ask someone else. Ignore...
maybe the problem is, you was often very wrong and had bigger mistakes, and einstein not? or at least he could think about his mistakes, and you look like you did not and attacked when your mistakes are simply corrected. ofcourse your have fixed thinking about world and cant change it, or al least looks so when you cant think about mistakes, but thats important part, to think about own mistakes.

thatswhy not many ask you maybe. when you tell people things that are not connected to trading , but you think they are, then its not easy to believe in someone. or when you tell people things that are against math, its only to see that you have this problem many gamblers have , but difficult to judge you as a trader, or if you have at least a chance to have positive wins on the end.

so comparing you and einstein is difficult, because you look complete oppisite and thats why people think about you opposite.

it was often not nice to see, when arguments was coming against what you wrote, but you had not one arguemnt to defend your own textes, and then started attacking because out of any arguemnts. maybe when you start telling arguemnts people will take you more serios, and not only the more unexpierenced followers. and it would be good to have discussion with you, but until now there was nothing to learn and sometimes really misleading possible. and this is not negative , its only what it looks like. many would like to hear your arguments, maybe you even have sometimes a chance and not all big mistakes are compelte wrong when you would have arguments . i would judge you as neutral. maybe you dont know math perfect and have some basic knowledge, but maybe not - its really not possible to see what you are from what you write. basic textes are fine from you, but more complex to often wrong by math or market knowlegde and that what people see and on the end only this is possible to judge.

so many would maybe like to hear more arguments from you , or some discussion about some topics, and when some think different some interesting discussion can start.
  • #1,233
  • Oct 8, 2017 8:59am Oct 8, 2017 8:59am
The stage is all yours DUKAS...
Enlighten everyone... I'm not going to stand in your way
  • #1,234
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:06am Oct 8, 2017 9:06am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} maybe the problem is, you was often very wrong and had bigger mistakes, and einstein not? or at least he could think about his mistakes, and you look like you did not and attacked when your mistakes are simply corrected. focourse your have fixed .
Haha Dukas i once asked a ff member who attacked CP on forum all the time why is he doing this. And he told me... becase i admired him and I am angry on him because he doesnt tell us in simple language how to trade...
  • #1,235
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:10am Oct 8, 2017 9:10am
Maybe DUKAS will tell everyone in simple language how to trade...
DUKAS, there are a lot of traders out there who is in need of your expertise buddy
  • #1,236
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:10am Oct 8, 2017 9:10am
Quoting CrucialPoint
The stage is all yours DUKAS... Enlighten everyone... I'm not going to stand in your way
this was not against you, only to show you how you looks like to other people , when you write and react in this manner. just some words to think about. people can only judge what you write, they dont know if you are good perosn or bad, good trader or bad... they can only see your arguments and judge by this. other is not possible in forum, rest is all possible to fake. ofcourse some can also fake arguments, but you see this very easy often in some topics, if someone know what he speaks about or not.

so i wish you good sonday, and again: nothing against you. i would also like discuss more with you, and if you find big (or even small) mistakes from i would very like it tthat you correct it and to discuss about, its only possible way to learn here if you are trading some decades. rest you have seen already, nothing extrem new in the world since many years (trading strategies are same since many years, only some new tell same with some smaller changes....), its more different in hardware part then strategy part if you come from bank side and got learned all this parts. so heavy discussion would be very positive.
  • #1,237
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:10am Oct 8, 2017 9:10am
Quoting CrucialPoint
The stage is all yours DUKAS... Enlighten everyone... I'm not going to stand in your way
CP be a man. And dont run away from haters. ☺ Maybe they are members of "black sheep society" and they dont want your educational posts. With all respect to other members i learn more from you than from all your haters together.
  • #1,238
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:14am Oct 8, 2017 9:14am
Everything one needs to know about this thread is in the first 30 pages.
  • #1,239
  • Edited 9:34am Oct 8, 2017 9:23am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Maybe DUKAS will tell everyone in simple language how to trade... DUKAS, there are a lot of traders out there who is in need of your expertise buddy
thats not simple, you would need long textes for this. if you would do in simple words:

- start learning the basics of the market you want to trade in (rules, borders of what possible, risk management, math basics, important values, useless values,---- long list) step by step, so that you know each possible risk (how to avoid and what cant be avoided..) in trading and in life (same important)
- after learn basics start learning trading platform
- start demo account
- learn programming skills
- learn how to find trading strategies, how to fair test it, how to backup test it with program and how to do forward test and learn not to speak about
- start little real account

but this was really very small in simple language. but who really is interested in doing the work what needs to do, in our time people want be rich and this as fast a possible, they dont want 10.000 in 1 million in 10 years with very good chance/risk to get it. people start always comparing with others in trading and life, and thats the starting point for doing mistakes and get unhappy very often. but i think, you have seen this already many times before too.
  • #1,240
  • Oct 8, 2017 9:28am Oct 8, 2017 9:28am
Quoting ataata
{quote} Haha Dukas i once asked a ff member who attacked CP on forum all the time why is he doing this. And he told me... becase i admired him and I am angry on him because he doesnt tell us in simple language how to trade...
i dont attack him, i corrected his bigger mistakes. thats a bigger difference you need to accept, or trading will get you maybe in more trouble, because seeing and accepting differences is important for trading too.
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