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Monthly Profit - Daily Trading using SMA

  • #9,261
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:16am Oct 6, 2017 1:16am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} . I think this was, at least partly, down to the AUD "Retail Sales m/m" being worse than expect yesterday. The Buying at 0.78000, for now, has been consumed this is evident from the Bullish Wicks. {image}
Very interesting. Thanks Steve.
Just to get it clear for me. With bullish wicks you mean the hammer candlestick, which is a bullish one (4th last candle), right?
  • #9,262
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:21am Oct 6, 2017 1:21am
Quoting FX-Flux
{quote} Don’t. It doesn’t work. You need more of an edge than just following the rules in post #1
long-time posters Oddbjorg said 65-75% success rate - Filipo 75%.
something to ponder about maybe: have you noticed how many times Bk8 changed the way he took profits?
with high volatility you can go for higher TP`s; with the present low ATR`s you might have to settle for less.
  • #9,263
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:25am Oct 6, 2017 1:25am
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} MACD can help to figure out {image}

Hi Filipo,

All the MACD Histogram is showing, when it crosses Zero, is the 12 EMA crossing the 26 EMA.

It would make more sense to set the MACD to MAs that have more significance to D1 Trading.

Fast 5 EMA = Weekly

Slow 20 EMA = Monthly

Signal 10 SMA = Fortnightly

As my Trading has developed, I have found, the less Indicators I use the clearer "Price" has become.
  • #9,264
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:32am Oct 6, 2017 1:32am
Quoting Malu
{quote} Very interesting. Thanks Steve. Just to get it clear for me. With bullish wicks you mean the hammer candlestick, which is a bullish one (4th last candle), right?
Hi Malu,

The Chart below shows what I mean.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 17 AUD:USD D1 Observations.png Size: 84 KB
  • #9,265
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:48am Oct 6, 2017 2:48am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Malu, The Chart below shows what I mean. {image}
Thanks Steve for your prompt answer. Yes it does. So my understanding was correct.
  • #9,266
  • Oct 6, 2017 3:47am Oct 6, 2017 3:47am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Oddbjorg, AUD crosses where down, pretty well, across the board yesterday. I think this was, at least partly, down to the AUD "Retail Sales m/m" being worse than expect yesterday. The Buying at 0.78000, for now, has been consumed this is evident from the Bullish Wicks. I should have taken this into consideration. {image}
Thank you
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #9,267
  • Edited 3:58am Oct 6, 2017 3:47am | Edited 3:58am
Nice continuation pattern (candlestick re-crossing SMA5) on USDMXN
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 7B388B38-2957-447D-B26C-0B60860613D4.png Size: 340 KB
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,268
  • Oct 6, 2017 4:43am Oct 6, 2017 4:43am
Quoting yonnie
{quote} long-time posters Oddbjorg said 65-75% success rate - Filipo 75%. something to ponder about maybe: have you noticed how many times Bk8 changed the way he took profits? with high volatility you can go for higher TP`s; with the present low ATR`s you might have to settle for less.
Exactly, its far more nuanced than Post #1.

Success rate needs a good Risk Reward ratio to work. Sometimes the SL would be almost 100 pips away and BK8 would close with 50 pips profit. 65% win rate for this kind of trade is a losing formula.
So many in the Commercial section want to make me rich! :o
  • #9,269
  • Oct 6, 2017 6:45am Oct 6, 2017 6:45am
Quoting FX-Flux
{quote} Exactly, its far more nuanced than Post #1. Success rate needs a good Risk Reward ratio to work. Sometimes the SL would be almost 100 pips away and BK8 would close with 50 pips profit. 65% win rate for this kind of trade is a losing formula.
Not necessarily (unless I misunderstood something) I have read a few reports iabout traders making quite a lot of money with 35% winning trades thanks to appropriate risk and positions management.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,270
  • Oct 6, 2017 6:56am Oct 6, 2017 6:56am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/AUD Short Trade Update {image}

GBP/AUD Short Trade Result

+300 Pips +1.5% Return
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 17 GBP:AUD D1 Short Trade Result.png Size: 104 KB
  • #9,271
  • Oct 6, 2017 7:14am Oct 6, 2017 7:14am
Quoting FX-Flux
{quote} Exactly, its far more nuanced than Post #1. Success rate needs a good Risk Reward ratio to work. Sometimes the SL would be almost 100 pips away and BK8 would close with 50 pips profit. 65% win rate for this kind of trade is a losing formula.
Hi FX,

Until very recently R:R return was my top priority, I was aiming to enter Trades with as small a SL as possible and make at least 2R.

This is great when you time your entry perfectly, some times I did often I didn't and Price would take out my Stop and then continue in my intended direction without me.

The GBP/AUD Trade, I have just exited, I set +200 pip SL on both entries this was my emergency Stop. If something unexpected happened this Stop would be triggered.

By the time I made my second entry I had moved the Stop Loss on my first position to BE+.

This is how I am going to be Trading going forward.

I set my position size to this emergency Stop Loss but the full Stop Loss would rarely be used, if ever, because a new position in the opposite direction would be triggered before it was hit. See this Post #9,256
  • #9,272
  • Oct 6, 2017 8:08am Oct 6, 2017 8:08am
Another continuation pattern on CADJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 32377701-33BE-4E63-954D-3FF5FE681399.png Size: 408 KB
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,273
  • Oct 6, 2017 10:00am Oct 6, 2017 10:00am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} GBP/CAD Short Trade Update {image}
GBP/CAD D1 Short Trade Result

+250 Pips +1.25% Return
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6th Oct 17 GBP:CAD Short Trade Result.png Size: 103 KB
  • #9,274
  • Oct 6, 2017 10:15am Oct 6, 2017 10:15am
Closing down for the weekend with +++ on GY and NY and - - on ECH.
Plan to see you Monday evening.
All the best.
Oddbj.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #9,275
  • Oct 7, 2017 3:39am Oct 7, 2017 3:39am
Quoting Filipo1
Another continuation pattern on CADJPY {image}

Hi Filipo,

I don't Trade this pair but as I see it there were potentially two places to enter Short yesterday on D1.

What's your entry criteria?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7th Oct 17 CAD:JPY D1 Observations.png Size: 98 KB
  • #9,276
  • Edited 4:50am Oct 7, 2017 4:33am | Edited 4:50am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Filipo, I don't Trade this pair but as I see it there were potentially two places to enter Short yesterday on D1. What's your entry criteria? {image}
Hi Stevepatt, I am referring essentially to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo to refine my entries and now stop orders as well. I saw an opportunity with the short lived retracement to enter short.
H4 is showing everything is below the cloud a typical bearish view, Tenkan-sen (red) and Kijun-sen (blue) are also in bearish cross-over and finally Chikou-span (green) remains below historic price action, also bearish.
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen give me indications where to place my stop orders: inverse hedging buy order somewhere over the Tenkan-sen with tight trailing S/L and position doubling sell order below the Kijun-sen.
I understand Ichimoku might not be your cup of tea if you are more familiar with Justin Bennett style of pure price action approach. It looks like multicolored spaghettis at the beginning but I got used to it now and it works well for me.
Nevertheless I enjoy the simple and refreshing view that Bk8’s strategy gives me and I keep it as my initial market reading because it has proven to be simple and efficient.
Happy trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: A4A1E6F0-C1F4-456B-894C-3C2C8E52A91B.png Size: 336 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 52A0530B-939A-4697-A781-D925414379BC.png Size: 340 KB
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,277
  • Oct 7, 2017 6:15am Oct 7, 2017 6:15am
Hi,
next week we should watch UJ Daily:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lm7gcVxuRmixJ3vXdoUvXw.png Size: 51 KB
  • #9,278
  • Edited 11:21am Oct 7, 2017 7:12am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting 23ray
Hi, next week we should watch UJ Daily: {image}
Hi 23ray, Yes as this is the most exposed pair to US-NK tensions.
Looking at the weekly chart we could have a nice evening star
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FE7B55A3-F966-495E-A452-70B09D94DAB1.png Size: 331 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: C687DC44-3D60-4766-BCA2-B510820EC686.png Size: 325 KB
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #9,279
  • Oct 7, 2017 10:05am Oct 7, 2017 10:05am
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} Hi Stevepatt, I am referring essentially to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo to refine my entries and now stop orders as well. I saw an opportunity with the short lived retracement to enter short. H4 is showing everything is below the cloud a typical bearish view, Tenkan-sen (red) and Kijun-sen (blue) are also in bearish cross-over and finally Chikou-span (green) remains below historic price action, also bearish. On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen give me indications where to place my stop orders: inverse hedging buy order somewhere over the...
Hi Filipo, I chance upon this wonderful Thread and found the simplicity of BK8 method. The 5sma tracks very closely to the 9 period Tenkan-san. The TS line is actually the 50% median price of the previous 9 candles, like the 9 period Donchian channel middle line. I find that this is a better tracking method than the 5sma. I am using the Ichimoku chart with only the TS and KS lines instead of SMA with good results. MACD helps a lot to see if the trend is reversing or the retracement has completed, using the traditional MACD. I was trading with 4H before, now I switch to the Daily, thanks to BK8 inspiration. Happy piping!
  • #9,280
  • Edited 11:39am Oct 7, 2017 10:14am | Edited 11:39am
Guys I'm trying to come up with an indi that highlights "smart money" liquidity hunts/accumulation phases such as highlighted on the chart (below). Might be useful don't you think?

Also does anyone know of an indi that places the daily (higher time frame chart) within a lower time frame chart window? Say I've got he 1 hr chart open, I want to see the daily chart at the same time. Would be very useful.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM30.png Size: 43 KB
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