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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #69,341
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:01pm Oct 6, 2017 1:01pm
Quoting SunTrader
LOl just checked my Google news page, then Bloomberg, then Reuters. The only one even mentioning NK was Reuters will a little side paragraph and link to a story blah, blah, blah. The World is not fascinated at the moment with this. Why is anyone here?
According to zerohedge this is the source article and it hit the wire 1 minute before the sudden turn in the market. I can assure you this was the cause of the downturn.
  • #69,342
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:08pm Oct 6, 2017 1:08pm
USS Ronald Reagan will be in Korean waters early next week watching Kimmy and his founding day party. This should be very interesting.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #69,343
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:26pm Oct 6, 2017 1:26pm
Fingers crossed, knock on wood, I think we should see the yen pairs rallying from here, or at least the worse is over.

Also, Nicholishen, what is your TP for USD/JPY?
  • #69,344
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:26pm Oct 6, 2017 1:26pm
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} According to zerohedge this is the source article and it hit the wire 1 minute before the sudden turn in the market. I can assure you this was the cause of the downturn.
Well looking at that link it is originally timestamped @ 17:21 (believe that is lol Moscow time) 6.10.2017. please provide screen image showing price starting to drop at that time (adjusted to your zone or NY whatever) because I don't see it on my chart.

I see it already dropping 10 minutes earlier - after hitting congestion starting more than an hour earlier.
  • #69,345
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:30pm Oct 6, 2017 1:30pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-missile-soon
Of course stories can be found but not blaring headlines across every major news organizations TOP page.
  • #69,346
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:39pm Oct 6, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
Fingers crossed, knock on wood, I think we should see the yen pairs rallying from here, or at least the worse is over. Also, Nicholishen, what is your TP for USD/JPY?
I'm not really sure... I stopped out on that NK news. I see that over 70% myfxbook volume and and almost 60% FF is short UJ. If/When this rallies it's going to be a retail bloodbath.
  • #69,347
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:43pm Oct 6, 2017 1:43pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Well looking at that link it is originally timestamped @ 17:21 (believe that is lol Moscow time) 6.10.2017. please provide screen image showing price starting to drop at that time (adjusted to your zone or NY whatever) because I don't see it on my chart. I see it already dropping 10 minutes earlier - after hitting congestion starting more than an hour earlier.
Since you couldn't be bothered to pull up a chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nk news.png Size: 46 KB
  • #69,348
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:43pm Oct 6, 2017 1:43pm
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} I'm not really sure... I stopped out on that NK news. I see that over 70% myfxbook volume and and almost 60% FF is short UJ. If/When this rallies it's going to be a retail bloodbath.
Massive short-covering.
  • #69,349
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:48pm Oct 6, 2017 1:48pm
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} I'm not really sure... I stopped out on that NK news. I see that over 70% myfxbook volume and and almost 60% FF is short UJ. If/When this rallies it's going to be a retail bloodbath.
Out of 55-60 odd lots open there is a 22.6 lot short and a 22.6 lot long order on FF ratio mostly by same private person.Mostly fake/scam stuff on FF to manipulate the ratios or some rich human with no purpose in life.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #69,350
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:49pm Oct 6, 2017 1:49pm
Quoting darthPip
{quote} Out of 55-60 odd lots open there is a 22.6 lot short and a 22.6 lot long order on FF ratio mostly by same private person.Mostly fake/scam stuff on FF to manipulate the ratios.
Funnily these orders has always been there ever since I have been on FF.Total BS stuff.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #69,351
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:52pm Oct 6, 2017 1:52pm
Approaching the last 2 hours..where do you guys see this pair moivng for the next two hours? Cheers.
  • #69,352
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:58pm Oct 6, 2017 1:58pm
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} Since you couldn't be bothered to pull up a chart... {image}
Read my post again where .... I said I don't see it on my chart (ya know the chart I pulled up) - and now your chart proves it as well.

Price stopped long before, congests until it could no longer and dropped. That's it. Reality.

Keep reading the news (along with the rest of "the crowd") and looking for justification for why you got it wrong.
  • #69,353
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:58pm Oct 6, 2017 1:58pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
Approaching the last 2 hours..where do you guys see this pair moivng for the next two hours? Cheers.
Sideways
  • #69,354
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:00pm Oct 6, 2017 2:00pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Read my post again where .... I said I don't see it on my chart (ya know the chart I pulled up) - and now your chart proves it as well.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=705265
  • #69,355
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:01pm Oct 6, 2017 2:01pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
Approaching the last 2 hours..where do you guys see this pair moivng for the next two hours? Cheers.
Sideways. Like most Friday afternoons.
  • #69,356
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:02pm Oct 6, 2017 2:02pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=705265
They are paid to tell you something, anything.

No one pays you to believe it though.
  • #69,357
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:03pm Oct 6, 2017 2:03pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
Approaching the last 2 hours..where do you guys see this pair moivng for the next two hours? Cheers.
112.50
  • #69,358
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:07pm Oct 6, 2017 2:07pm
Yup should of said sideways ... to down somewhat.
  • #69,359
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:24pm Oct 6, 2017 2:24pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Read my post again where .... I said I don't see it on my chart - and now chart proves it as well.
It proves that UJ hit resistance at the 1.618 extension, and further proves what I said earlier about the market being in a holding pattern for the FOMC speeches. The price was still following the regression line up into resistance all the way until the article dropped. The minute candle of the article time stamp was trading up and overall price was consolidated in a narrow range. Five minutes following the article the price dropped way outside 2 std dev on the bands. The volume on the 5 min bar the news dropped is more than double the bar preceding it. This was 100% a knee-jerk algo driven move.

I think you underestimate the volume traded by these algos. All of these institutional players have racks of servers running machine learning algos that constantly scan any and all news sources and use natural language processing to indiscriminately dump equities and return to a cash position in yen whenever there is a new NK threat. This all happens in less than a second. This move happened because of this article (major fundamental news event) and the charts do support this position without question.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-10-06 15_02_50-.png Size: 49 KB
  • #69,360
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:24pm Oct 6, 2017 2:24pm
hope the week closes below the open of 112.66
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
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