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  • #861
  • Oct 2, 2017 6:14pm Oct 2, 2017 6:14pm
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Yep, but trading without understanding is a waste of time; focus on understanding first, forget systems, they mean nothing; when you have understood begin demo trading, but at that point you will find yourself ready to go real sooner than you think. When you trade your focus is on the trade, meanwhile should be on observation; observing what price is doing without the concern about your trade is much more important for your education.
Education very important as first step as understanding most important . Many of us here started our free education
At https://www.babypips.com.
You must also understand brokers , how pick them , how find who are scammers, who are your friends ( me) , who are your enemies , instruments , pairs to trade , understanding of the trading infrastructure , institutional flow, news, fake news and real news - some more to think about
  • #862
  • Oct 2, 2017 6:29pm Oct 2, 2017 6:29pm
The mere fact that all of us here are scratching our heads attempting to interpret how the markets work with no definitive answer highlight that this problem is currently complex, and this may well be due to our current conceptual limitations, biases and general roadblocks that shroud things that fundamentally are really in plain sight.

The history of science demonstrates however that what appears to be complexity can be beaten provided that we can think differently in order to simplify. This is what science does through achievements of unification. At one time there were over 10 fundamental forces responsible for driving this universe. Now through unification we have got to 4 fundamental forces. Underpinning complexity is actually simplicity, but to obtain that simplicity you need to stretch the mind and the way you interpret the reality. That is actually what learning is about. It is not a Britannica of useless factoids. It is how you apply your mind to creatively problem solve.

The crime for a species with a thinking brain is indifference, naivety, apathy and ignorance. Adhominem arguments are counter-productive and waste so much time. Debate the stuff that actually matters and broaden your capacity to creatively problem solve :-)
  • #863
  • Oct 2, 2017 7:13pm Oct 2, 2017 7:13pm
Quoting OHLC
{quote} It's not possible to trade unbiased unless you are entering in both buy and sell. If you're choosing one side then you're introducing bias. I'm confused by the rest of your post about Marines but of course, managing risk is certainly required.
Like how I described here ?
Staying in my lane...
  • #864
  • Oct 2, 2017 7:23pm Oct 2, 2017 7:23pm
Million Dollar Question to me is...Can anyone trade Spot FX without looking at or analyzing historical price information? I cannot because I need that last tick at candle close.

Can you trade successfully if someone whispers a Red news release number the moment it is announced? I am sure Rhonda knows where I am going with this :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #865
  • Oct 2, 2017 7:40pm Oct 2, 2017 7:40pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} this only applies if it is renko, where the reversal is twice the size of the average move. In his example i think he used coin flips, so no bias was given to the trend.
Of course, I understand. However if you look at the posted pictures, let's say there's a consecutive downtrend of 3 "Tails". That is -3 summed if one says Tails = -1 and Heads = +1 in his example. After the 3 consecutive "Tails", the next heads Does not make it (-3)+(+1) = -2, rather, the price remained at -3, and required an additional Heads to move the price to -2. Therefore non-equal weight is given to trends and nontrends, and his example, I think, favors trends.

I do believe random walks can and do generate trends, I just think there's a "bug" in the way the experiment was done
  • #866
  • Oct 2, 2017 7:53pm Oct 2, 2017 7:53pm
Quoting Branflakes
{quote} Of course, I understand. However if you look at the posted pictures, let's say there's a consecutive downtrend of 3 "Tails". That is -3 summed if one says Tails = -1 and Heads = +1 in his example. After the 3 consecutive "Tails", the next heads Does not make it (-3)+(+1) = -2, rather, the price remained at -3, and required an additional Heads to move the price to -2. Therefore non-equal weight is given to trends and nontrends, and his example, I think, favors trends. I do believe random walks can and do generate trends, I just think there's...
why would the price remain at -3 after the next head (+1) ? i dont get it.
  • #867
  • Oct 2, 2017 8:08pm Oct 2, 2017 8:08pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} why would the price remain at -3 after the next head (+1) ? i dont get it.
It is supposed to be -2, but in the picture drawn, the logic does not hold. For reversals, (Two) consecutive flips opposite of the trend are necessary, while if a trend is underway, only (One) of the same flips, whether a heads or tails trend, is needed to move the tick in his example.

Therefore, let's say there's a downtrend. Three Tails, -3 in total count. Down, Down, Down. If the next flip is a head, the value should increase to -2, and the Up arrow should be drawn on the same level as the middle down arrow. However, in the actual picture, he draws the Up arrow next to the Last Down arrow. One more consecutive head is needed to move price to the -2 threshold.

Therefore, it is harder to reverse a trend than to continue one, which is why a coin flip trend is so easily established in his picture. I agree it is supposed to be -2, but the "bug" in the picture is that there is no change in the "Y" cumulative flip amount when one gets a flip that opposes a trend. Two flips opposing a trend is needed to change the value by (1), when theoretically two flips should change the value by (2).

Again, I do agree that trends can be formed by random walk, but the picture example above heavily favored the establishment of trends. Go look at the picture and look at where the arrow is drawn when a counter trend flip is done. The arrow is drawn on the same y axis value of the last flip. Therefore it did not change the value. Another consecutive counter trend flip is needed to reverse the value.
  • #868
  • Oct 2, 2017 8:40pm Oct 2, 2017 8:40pm
Quoting nealpek
Time frame is irrelevant. Price is price on any timeframe, and each time frame shows the same setup to my eyes. Here's the daily, just as convincing as the hourly to place a trade...Randomness, I don't think so! I hope we can now put this issue to bed!!! Gave everyone a heads up this afternoon to trade U/J long. Hope some of you caught it.... {image}
There's a Nobel prize waiting for you if you can crack it. :-)
  • #869
  • Oct 2, 2017 8:46pm Oct 2, 2017 8:46pm
Quoting nealpek
Markets are not random, they are very structured. This is the only reason I can continue to duplicate the results of the same setup over and over again. Is this enough proof that the markets are not random? The setup is not random, and I count on it to develop in order to place my trades, long or short, makes no difference. Note to Copernicus: understanding the markets isn't complex, we simply believe that it is! {image}
Got the note. I concur...it's just that I haven't got there quite yet. Close.... with diversification....but no cigar for me and much more room for improvement :-)
  • #870
  • Oct 2, 2017 8:59pm Oct 2, 2017 8:59pm
Copernicus, don't give up. I can't tell you the kazillion hours of screen time it took until the "aha" moment. It will come....
  • #871
  • Oct 2, 2017 9:13pm Oct 2, 2017 9:13pm
Quoting nealpek
Copernicus, don't give up. I can't tell you the kazillion hours of screen time it took until the "aha" moment. It will come....
I will keep trying...This approach seems to work in narrowing the odds in your favour :-)

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  • #872
  • Oct 2, 2017 9:29pm Oct 2, 2017 9:29pm
Quoting Branflakes
{quote} It is supposed to be -2, but in the picture drawn, the logic does not hold. For reversals, (Two) consecutive flips opposite of the trend are necessary, while if a trend is underway, only (One) of the same flips, whether a heads or tails trend, is needed to move the tick in his example. Therefore, let's say there's a downtrend. Three Tails, -3 in total count. Down, Down, Down. If the next flip is a head, the value should increase to -2, and the Up arrow should be drawn on the same level as the middle down arrow. However, in the actual picture,...
hmm now i get what you meant Bran, although i still agree with the way strbc drew his arrows. i think both ways are correct tho, although the person using it has to know/understand exactly what he is looking at . Actually its possible represent the exact same price movement using different visuals, i used to use a point and figure chart that displayed price the way you explained it like this( kinda similar to renko but very different since here every bar is the same size even the reversals)
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but its also possible to do it this way here( rail to rail bars)
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the 2nd chart example is how strbc chose to draw his arrows and i kinda agree with him cause if you plot arrows lets say on a grid for up or down moves, the visuals will look more like the image he posted. But the way you do it is also correct, just different. basically both do the same but the open and close lines are plotted differently. sorry for my english
  • #873
  • Oct 2, 2017 9:53pm Oct 2, 2017 9:53pm
im looking for people who trade those types of charts so we could exchange ideas, could be renko, point and figures, range bars ( to a certain extent), im not too found on using indicators with those non time frame based charts, but it doesnt matter. If you re down with it we could do so here or on another thread. but please no empty theory about " price dont exist " or stuff like that please , only practical stuff. thanks a lot.
  • #874
  • Oct 2, 2017 9:53pm Oct 2, 2017 9:53pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote}{quote} you are sure about this? i would bet against. i know mabye only 200 persons who trade good, most came from bank or work in, but noone ever thought about this in relation to trading, they dont like to do it complicated, make it simple is the word, and doing easy things like trading overcomplicated is also an art, but i dont think many good traders try this art to trade, when its so easy possible without thinking about this. how many people do you know ,who are good traders and thinking about this topic and think this is trading important...
Hi DT :-)

I see where you are coming from but as you can probably tell...I demand a more rigorous proof of how things work and don't go by subjective outcomes like an assumption that someone is a successful trader or not.

In attempting to satisfy myself that I am on the right track I need to go to the source. Namely the successful pro-traders who have a verified track record that I can lean on. When it comes to the question of who these guys are?....I don't have to look far for they are the guys who actually have a deep interest in how things work and their quest is for understanding and not simply a quest for riches. These guys are the physicists and mathematicians you might find in nearly every large successful hedge fund of a long standing nature. The Ed Thorp's of the world or the Jim Simons.....and the list just goes on and on including the Nassim Taleb's et al. The majority of these very successful traders have a very firm background in mathematics or physics. This is by no means coincidental. These guys know how to examine complex problems and are intrigued in cracking this code.

Before the 1980's Wall Street was a place of the big swinging dick's with ego's the size of elephant nuts...however now this market is occupied by a different beast....namely the rise of the quants. These guys are not necessarily driven by the financial outcome itself which is merely a symptom of this ambition, but the quest to crack the code that is the nature of these markets.

My gut tells me that to achieve the pinnacle of your ambitions, it is best to understand before you attempt to apply...otherwise that very same market will have the last laugh. :-)
  • #875
  • Edited Oct 3, 2017 12:30am Oct 2, 2017 10:29pm | Edited Oct 3, 2017 12:30am
So far in FF, i only see this guy as the real deal.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...44#post2279344
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #876
  • Oct 3, 2017 1:05am Oct 3, 2017 1:05am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote}
Maybe my understanding of the 'forum' concept is different than yours.
Yes. I don't think you will find answers to your questions here, but you seem to have hopes.
  • #877
  • Oct 3, 2017 1:30am Oct 3, 2017 1:30am
Quoting Copernicus
The mere fact that all of us here are scratching our heads attempting to interpret how the markets work with no definitive answer highlight that this problem is currently complex, and this may well be due to our current conceptual limitations, biases and general roadblocks that shroud things that fundamentally are really in plain sight. The history of science demonstrates however that what appears to be complexity can be beaten provided that we can think differently in order to simplify. This is what science does through achievements of unification....
This is the "crucial point"!!
  • #878
  • Edited 3:35am Oct 3, 2017 3:02am | Edited 3:35am
For some reason since the 'crucial point' has been made clear a little while back, this thread likely grind to an abrupt halt.

When is a buy a non-freak event that begs a buy trade ?
When is a buy a freak event that begs a sell trade ?
When is a sell a non-freak event that begs a sell trade ?
When is a sell a freak event that begs a buy trade ?

Cognitive bias is responsible for our preferable answers from what we see on the chart.

If we truly do not refer to past data, there's no bullish nor bearish market, no previous buy nor sell.

If we truly do not refer to time, there's only one huge candle of high, low, and current that lies somewhere in there.
  • #879
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:30am Oct 3, 2017 4:30am
Quoting skyway
For some reason since the 'crucial point' has been made clear a little while back, this thread likely grind to an abrupt halt. When is a buy a non-freak event that begs a buy trade ? When is a buy a freak event that begs a sell trade ? When is a sell a non-freak event that begs a sell trade ? When is a sell a freak event that begs a buy trade ? Cognitive bias is responsible for our preferable answers from what we see on the chart. If we truly do not refer to past data, there's no bullish nor bearish market, no previous buy nor sell. If we truly...
Would even only one trader be able to answer to your questions there would be no market.
No one will ever solve them because there is nothing to solve: this is uncertainty and you cannot make certain what is uncertain.
Uncertainty is what allows market to exist.

Would you have a trader mind you could conceive only one question:
how can I manage with uncertainty?

Maybe someone will begin to understand the power to acquire the right mindset.
  • #880
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:51am Oct 3, 2017 4:51am
I must admit...I have to agree with RR on the assumption that coordinated collective participant behaviour tends to emerge during 'crisis' events.

It's not that I haven't tried in my trading career with fairly active market participation since the early 80's in trading the normal day to day market machinations through equities, options and derivatives. I am embarrassed to say that it is only in the last 7 years or so, that I have been able to see the wood for the trees and potentially turn trading from a game of chance to a wealth creator.....but I still can't turn this game into a consistent cashflow generator. I have a hunch that many may find this phenomenon as well....if we are being honest about it.

It has only been through extensive testing that I have been able to nail down in quantifiable terms my trading behaviour in terms of what can be attributable to random luck versus what can be attributable to a sustainable edge.

Where my current trading approach shines, as I am a diversified trend trader, is during periods of 'crisis alpha'. All the rest of the time I am involved in an incessant churn trying to protect my capital at all costs. I need to be in the market however to be able to capitalise when the 'fat tail' event arrives, which I can never predict with any degree of certainty.

While these events can never be predicted, the more you diversify, the more chance you have of catching these tsunamis where the majority of participants are pulling the pin on faithfully applying their trading plans and managing their positions by the seat of their pants being directed by fear or greed. It is only in these rare instances where you see true directional momentum poking it's head out of the market maelstrom which can be capitalised on with a degree of certainty.

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This cheeky little model (below) pretty well sums it up for me. The normal market is a frenzy of activity through the application of gazillions of different trading plans designed for a gazillion different purposes of which speculation is only a small sample. In this maelstrom your equity curve will be a derivative of random chance and within these bounds you may be successful or not.....however as brittle failure occurs in the market when primeval behavioral tendencies start to over-ride the trading plans you will start to see the coordinated rhythm of fear or greed being expressed in price action. That's when the equity curve of a diversified trend/momentum trader will soar.

We begin with the normal market machinations of traders doing their own thing....and end with coordinated rhythm of crowd behaviour. :-)

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