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  • #841
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:28pm Oct 2, 2017 4:28pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Glad you like it {quote} Agreed. Unfortunately, d_t is too busy barking up the wrong tree to learn about these things. {quote} Love it You're touching upon the essence of it here - the development of one's operating metaphors and approach to trading is a creative act rather than an analytical one. Analysis plays a part, but is subordinate to one's overall approach. For me it's like laying a jigsaw puzzle. The local setup is the final piece, but the overall picture is the essential thing. I've got half a dozen setups, backtested...
Nothing is what it seems, everything is what it is.
Investigating the true nature of market has been the most amazing journey I've ever done in my whole life, and leads to a true enlightenment about everything surrounds you.
  • #842
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:32pm Oct 2, 2017 4:32pm
The markets are essentially predictable to a useful degree but that sounds misleading. Price movement is not going to clearly go where you estimate it'll go, etc. Think of it as a multilane interstate. A car is generally going in a direction but you cannot precisely know which lanes it will go into and with what variability. It is certainly required to change with the market.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #843
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:43pm Oct 2, 2017 4:43pm
Quoting AntiCre
Guys, back to the topic. What is the underlying structure of the market?! It could be everything or nothing. I'd guess that most here would say that the market is deterministic to some points. However, I've never seen a true proof of this (although I'd wish it would be the case). Unfortunately, I don't know any successful traders personally, so I have to rely on what I've seen in my previous analyses: In the long run the market behaves like a random process. However, in the short term it tends to form trends. Without any further knowledge on how...
It is much more simple and elegant than that, although it is complex and not easy to conceive for a no-trained thinker.
Understand what is randomness and chaos, there is a lot of confusion about,
Thereafter don't look for proves but for informations: try to make something with them, experiment and finally leave away bullshits and take care of the diamonds you will find.
There are things that cannot be proved as we are used to think but they will prove by themselfs as soon as you put them to practice.
This is another example of what i mean while I say think different.
Mind is the most amazing tool we have but if you don't know how it works, it will take control over you and it will always fuck you even without you realize. Learn to control your mind.
  • #844
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:44pm Oct 2, 2017 4:44pm
Why is information about the origins of the candlestick/western bar so unknown ? We don't know the creators, the ones who made it known initially...
Furthermore how was the high/low recorded through out the candle sticks period ? What period ? How many candlesticks were usually used in order to form a chart ? Did they have the same period or not ?
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The truth is hidden from you
  • #845
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:46pm Oct 2, 2017 4:46pm
Quoting AntiCre
Guys, back to the topic. What is the underlying structure of the market?! It could be everything or nothing. I'd guess that most here would say that the market is deterministic to some points. However, I've never seen a true proof of this (although I'd wish it would be the case). Unfortunately, I don't know any successful traders personally, so I have to rely on what I've seen in my previous analyses: In the long run the market behaves like a random process. However, in the short term it tends to form trends. Without any further knowledge on how...
Those are all good questions, which all have been answered long time ago.

1. Anybody with a postgrad degree in finance, good grounding in econometrics, and an interest in the markets will know the answers.

2. Then there are the self-educated successful traders who have figured these things out in their own way, and some of their thoughts you can find here.

3. Then, let me tell you, the maths departments of all famous universities have archives of solutions to unsolved problems - submitted by ignored crackpot geniuses in the general public Makes for hilarious reading, just like some posts on this thread.

What kind of responses were you hoping for?
  • #846
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:48pm Oct 2, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Nothing is what it seems, everything is what it is. Investigating the true nature of market has been the most amazing journey I've ever done in my whole life, and leads to a true enlightenment about everything surrounds you.
I wholeheartedly agree with that.
  • #847
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:58pm Oct 2, 2017 4:58pm
Quoting OHLC
The markets are essentially predictable to a useful degree but that sounds misleading. Price movement is not going to clearly go where you estimate it'll go, etc. Think of it as a multilane interstate. A car is generally going in a direction but you cannot precisely know which lanes it will go into and with what variability. It is certainly required to change with the market.
This is the reason why you have to trade unbiased.
Does the sentence "trade in the now" sounds familiar?
How can you recognize if and when you are affected by e bias? Only if you know how your mind works and you re-educate it.
Did you ever ask yourself why marines have to pass through such a hard training period? They have to change their mind because only a hard trained mind to fight can lead them to survival.
Human mind is not built to face with extreme situations, is not buil to face with risk and uncertainty; war and trading are extreme activities.
A no-trained mind will seek for certainty, calmness and sureness and doing this will refuse to see what instead should be seen; a trained mind doesn't escape from risk and uncertainty, it won't be stressed by such a kind of environment, on the contrary it will find how to manage risk and uncertainty making of that environment a well known and comfy field.
  • #848
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:00pm Oct 2, 2017 5:00pm
Quoting medici
3. Then, let me tell you, the maths departments of all famous universities have archives of solutions to unsolved problems - submitted by ignored crackpot geniuses in the general public Makes for hilarious reading, just like some posts on this thread.
Maybe. However, in June I was invited to the stats department at the UCL and the Alan-Turing-Institute in London where I tried to get some discussions on the predictability of markets (although I was there for another reason). All geniuses there said that the application of common techniques for time series analyses are widely used but have never been proofed to work well. The general problem is that as the numbers of a random process can be arbitrary, the parameters of the underlying stochastic process can vary during time, too. Maybe there are some genious answers out there but the question is how to find it ...

Quoting medici
What kind of responses were you hoping for?
In the first place I'd like to bring the discussion back to the topic of the thread. Additionally I always hope for some good hints that may bring me one step further on my survey ...
  • #849
  • Edited 5:21pm Oct 2, 2017 5:04pm | Edited 5:21pm
Quoting MaxenshteinD
Why is information about the origins of the candlestick/western bar so unknown ? We don't know the creators, the ones who made it known initially... Furthermore how was the high/low recorded through out the candle sticks period ? What period ? How many candlesticks were usually used in order to form a chart ? Did they have the same period or not ? {image}
oooook man! this is the kind of questions that sooner or later will bring you to somewhere. Go beyond the already said, investigate, seek for smart questions like this, don't seek for answers: they will come alone when you will be ready to receive them.
  • #850
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:04pm Oct 2, 2017 5:04pm
Quoting LuXing
{quote} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} Reassuring to know that you teach. {image} {image} Mmmm, did you teach and coach soft skills ? If so, might I suggest to brush up on your soft skills ? LuXing
ok, i will not say anything against you, but you look very political;-), only politican like to put out some sentences and then present this and not the whole part why this sentences was! i did wrote this because tony presented big bullshit/fake (zero till very small slippage in all extrem big news events; but read it for your own, when you are no beginner you will find fast why i wrote only that he was not correct about what he wrote with slippage in extrem big news events, and rest was when he started crying about this fact.. simple reading would preserve you from writing this wrong facts with your text).

so learn to read all then you dont make so big mistakes or at least can bring arguments why i was wrong.
soft skills are ok when there are reasons for, but for some people who tell often wrong things and even sound like someone leading people to one broker, you can simple mention this.

if i would judge you from what you wrote here, i could also say (and would be logic) you are to fast in judging, dont read good enough, like to write fast some things without content, dont check if there are correct reasons why something was said, ........... . but i will not be at this level and only tell this by seeing more arguments from you (and so can judge if your really are this type of person), thats why i dont judge you, and its also not neccesary , because never met you here before in any discussion, or at least i dont remember.
  • #851
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:06pm Oct 2, 2017 5:06pm
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} This is the reason why you have to trade unbiased. Does the sentence "trade in the now" sounds familiar? How can you recognize if and when you are affected by e bias? Only if you know how your mind works and you re-educate it. Did you ever ask yourself why marines have to pass through such a hard training period? They have to change their mind because only a hard trained mind to fight can lead them to survival. Human mind is not built to face with extreme situations, is not buil to face with risk and uncertainty; war and trading are extreme...
It's not possible to trade unbiased unless you are entering in both buy and sell. If you're choosing one side then you're introducing bias. I'm confused by the rest of your post about Marines but of course, managing risk is certainly required.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #852
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:22pm Oct 2, 2017 5:22pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote}

Maybe. However, in June I was invited to the stats department at the UCL and the Alan-Turing-Institute in London where I tried to get some discussions on the predictability of markets (although I was there for another reason). All geniuses there said that the application of common techniques for time series analyses are widely used but have never been proofed to work well. The general problem is that as the numbers of a random process can be arbitrary, the parameters of the underlying stochastic process can vary during time, too. Maybe...
Exactly. And you were hoping for a more knowledgeable answer here than at UCL?

Quote

In the first place I'd like to bring the discussion back to the topic of the thread. Additionally I always hope for some good hints that may bring me one step further on my survey ...

.

No, you're not. You are asking for proofs of things related to "randomness". And your suggested new topic, "underlying structure of market", again, is something you can read up on and will never learn here. Check Adam Grimes' book for a start.

To sum it up, you sound like a noob looking for free education, and you hope to get it by playing thread manager here
  • #853
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:26pm Oct 2, 2017 5:26pm
The markets are highly structured, if they weren't, no trader could ever be successful. The problem is the structure is staring everyone in the face. As everyone is told the markets are very complex, most choose to find a complex solution. I'm telling everyone, the answer is actually staring you in the face, and has been ever since you started trading, but of course solving the markets can't be that simple....
  • #854
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:36pm Oct 2, 2017 5:36pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Exactly. And you were hoping for a more knowledgeable answer here than at UCL? {quote} No, you're not. You are asking for proofs of things related to "randomness". And your suggested new topic, "underlying structure of market", again, is something you can read up on and will never learn here. Check Adam Grimes' book for a start. To sum it up, you sound like a noob looking for free education, and you hope to get it by playing thread manager here
I wil tell you the secret to being sucessful: hard work , grit, discipline, a plan , correct psychology, a system suited to you , thousands of hours trading to find what works for you in demo , thousands of hours trading under pressure and in all conditions. That's just to get going. It's many factors , not just the system. You give the same system to two different people and over time will get different results . Why is that ? Why are some people better players than ohers in football ?
  • #855
  • Edited 5:48pm Oct 2, 2017 5:38pm | Edited 5:48pm
Quoting strbac
A lot of people here just talks without ever trying CPs concepts. Have you put to the test anything that he said? Guess not, but you are still talking and talking. About the roulette thing and the reference line, did you try to make a simulation and see where the mentioned blocks (+1 and -1) will go? You can watch any roulette game on youtube, grab a piece of paper, draw a line and start and see how it goes. But no, most of you are lazy for this, but not lazy to keep discussing with the wind. Someone here said that roulete doesn't have a memory....
Hey there! So I love the quantified approach you take, and I do believe the esoterical posts by CrucialPoint can be reaped of value by some. However, I do think there's a "bug" in your approach. What you've done gives a bias weight to trends, as trends after two of the same tosses move value either -1 or +1. However any toss resulting in a value different than the "trend" value does not move it an equal amount "backwards." Therefore, it takes two consecutive tosses of the same value to "change" a trend, while it only takes one consecutive toss more to continue a trend. Therefore, it gives bias to trends and reduces the significance of trend changes, much like renko bars! Please fact check what I said

However, I've repeated the experiment giving equal weights to trends or not, and there does seem to be trends that develop, albeit less pronounced than the ones in your graph
  • #856
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:41pm Oct 2, 2017 5:41pm
Quoting OHLC
{quote} It's not possible to trade unbiased unless you are entering in both buy and sell. If you're choosing one side then you're introducing bias. I'm confused by the rest of your post about Marines but of course, managing risk is certainly required.
Even when you say that is impossible to trade unbiased you are biased.
I understand what you mean, but this is the point which is common to everybody: your beliefs are a limit.
Nothing is impossible unless you believe it is.
You have to open your mind and begin to do and to think the opposite of what you've been doing and thinking till now.
  • #857
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:46pm Oct 2, 2017 5:46pm
Attached Image
  • #858
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:50pm Oct 2, 2017 5:50pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} I wil tell you the secret to being sucessful: hard work , grit, discipline, a plan , correct psychology, a system suited to you , thousands of hours trading to find what works for you in demo , thousands of hours trading under pressure and in all conditions. That's just to get going. It's many factors , not just the system. You give the same system to two different people and over time will get different results . Why is that ? Why are some people better players than ohers in football ?
Yep, but trading without understanding is a waste of time; focus on understanding first, forget systems, they mean nothing; when you have understood begin demo trading, but at that point you will find yourself ready to go real sooner than you think.
When you trade your focus is on the trade, meanwhile should be on observation; observing what price is doing without the concern about your trade is much more important for your education.
  • #859
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:57pm Oct 2, 2017 5:57pm
Quoting Branflakes
{quote} Therefore, it takes two consecutive tosses of the same value to "change" a trend, while it only takes one consecutive toss more to continue a trend. Therefore, it gives bias to trends and reduces the significance of trend changes, much like renko bars! Please fact check what I said
this only applies if it is renko, where the reversal is twice the size of the average move. In his example i think he used coin flips, so no bias was given to the trend.
  • #860
  • Oct 2, 2017 6:02pm Oct 2, 2017 6:02pm
Quoting medici
To sum it up, you sound like a noob looking for free education, and you hope to get it by playing thread manager here
You've asked something and I've honestly tried to answer it ... Maybe my understanding of the 'forum' concept is different than yours.
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