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  • #281
  • Sep 30, 2017 6:50pm Sep 30, 2017 6:50pm
I have just completed the first phase of my weekly technical screening of the markets. Based on this, the pairs I will be tracking the week beginning October 1, 2017 are AUDUSD and XAUUSD (GOLD) because there was clarity in price action on the pairs last week.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #282
  • Oct 1, 2017 5:35pm Oct 1, 2017 5:35pm
I am bearish on the AUDUSD but I will wait for a retracement to retest the resistance trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 timeframe before looking for a sell trading opportunity. Also, a retracement upward to the 0.79015 area will offer me an opportunity to look for a sell trade.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_2_1st_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 36 KB



Quoting KeenPips
I have just completed the first phase of my weekly technical screening of the markets. Based on this, the pairs I will be tracking the week beginning October 1, 2017 are AUDUSD and XAUUSD (GOLD) because there was clarity in price action on the pairs last week. Trade safe and prosper. KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #283
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:49pm Oct 8, 2017 4:49pm
I am bearish on cable. Here's why.

Are you tracking the GBPUSD for trading opportunities this week? Consider this top-down technical perspective.

Four weeks ago, price action on this pair entered the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. Since then price action on the pair has commenced a bearish descent. Last week, a strong bearish candlestick broke below the monthly central pivot. With the technicals on the weekly time frame disposed southward, we may expect a bearish continuation to target the immediate support around the 1.28850 area; this may extend to a significant support around the 1.27115 area.

On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner support trendline (magenta colour) and heading towards a major support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the daiy time frame. The last two sessions on Friday saw a bullish move to push price upward. Should the bulls succeed in this move, we may see a retracement to the immediate horizontal support around the 1.32000 area or a retest of the support trendline (magenta colour) turned resistance before price action heads southward with a potential, initial target being the major support trendline (chocolate colour), which may extend to the horizontal support around the 1.27115 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_8th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 29 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_8th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 33 KB
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  • #284
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:00pm Oct 8, 2017 5:00pm
Interesting outlook.

Nice to see charts by the way. How did you plot the pivots? that's one thing I struggle with on MT4.

I've just spent an hour looking at cable charts for this week. I agree with some of your sentiment. for me, I think I need to see a candle break the 1.30. seems to happen quite easily so I have a target at about 1.28 initially.

have a look at this and see if it changes your viewpoint? I'd love some feedback.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post10368708
  • #285
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:08pm Oct 8, 2017 5:08pm
My technical analysis is based on my orientation as a swing trader and considers at least two htfs.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #286
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:12pm Oct 8, 2017 5:12pm
Quoting KeenPips
My technical analysis is based on my orientation as a swing trader and considers at least two htfs. KP
Aye, I can see. I've subbed so I can follow your ideas. Be interesting to see over the next few days if either one of us is right.

Mine was based on weekly and daily. I try and avoid the lower TF as I am not near PC all day, sadly.

Good luck to you this week! I hope you make some pips!

T
  • #287
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:16pm Oct 8, 2017 5:16pm
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Aye, I can see. I've subbed so I can follow your ideas. Be interesting to see over the next few days if either one of us is right. Mine was based on weekly and daily. I try and avoid the lower TF as I am not near PC all day, sadly. Good luck to you this week! I hope you make some pips! T

Thank you mate. However, I don't compete with nobody on being right. I compete with myself and trade my charts; I make improvements for consistent and sustainable trading success.


Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #288
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:18pm Oct 8, 2017 5:18pm
I am bearish on this pair and I will be interested in a sell trading opportunity should price action pull back into the 1.32000 area, specifically to within the zone between 1.31396 and 1.32116 (bound by saddlebrown coloured hprizontal lines) on the H4 chart.

KP


Quoting KeenPips
I am bearish on cable. ...{image} {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #289
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:22pm Oct 8, 2017 5:22pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Thank you mate. However, I don't compete with nobody on being right. I compete with myself and trade my charts; I make improvements for consistent and sustainable trading success. Trade safe and prosper. KP
No competition intended just curiosity. I like to see others viewpoints. I'm trying to improve my trading also; so it's nice to see a view that isn't my own, helps with seeing the big picture sometimes, don't you agree? you never know. you might see something I missed.

In fact, you did. I don't have the monthly pivot points when the sellers pushed past that it's clear from your charts there is selling weakness. whereas for me not seeing that, I am assuming we have the potential for a bounce.

It's past my bedtime now, hope you have a good day tomorrow.
  • #290
  • Oct 15, 2017 4:10pm Oct 15, 2017 4:10pm
Here's why I'm bearish on EURJPY.

On the daily time frame, price action has broken the support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 14, 2017. Together with a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of July 11, 2017, it was apparent that price action has been operating in a wedge for quite a while. Although the wedge is apparently breached southward, a support trendline (magenta colour) from the highs formed between July and early September 2017 is still intact and will have to be breached before we can expect momentum for a bearish continuation. Should this happen, a likely target for such a bearish move is the 129.970 area, the origin of the most recent swing high. Otherwise, we may expect price action to move sideways for a while or retest the 133.800 area.

Price action was operating in a wedge on the H4 time frame for a long while in September and October. The wedge is not yet broken, particularly considering that the wedge support (dark violet colour) on the H4 time frame is still not decisively breached even though that of the D1 time frame (navy colour) has been breached. Therefore, we may expect a retracement, perhaps to retest the wedge resistance (red colour); although the support trendline on D1 turned resistance may be an initial target of such a retest. We may expect the 133.100/350 area to be a magnet of such a retracement before a turnaround for a bearish continuation materializes. The technicals on the H4 time frame are disposed southward.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_15th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_15th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 38 KB
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  • #291
  • Oct 15, 2017 4:21pm Oct 15, 2017 4:21pm
Here's how I will trade this pair.

I will wait for a retracement to one of the significant resistance trendlines or the 133.100/350 area before looking for a sell trading opportunity. Specifically, I will look for a retracement into the zone between 133.065 and 133.345 (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines on the H4 time frame) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Here's why I'm bearish on EURJPY. On the daily time frame, price action has broken the support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 14, 2017. Together with a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of July 11, 2017, it was apparent that price action has been operating in a wedge for quite a while. Although the wedge is apparently breached southward, a support trendline (magenta colour) from the highs formed between July and early September 2017 is still intact and will have to be breached before we can expect momentum for...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #292
  • Oct 22, 2017 3:44pm Oct 22, 2017 3:44pm
The markets on the pairs I am watching are at the crossroads at the moment. Some are at levels where the price action is ambivalent and there is little to trade either way. The two pairs that appear to have some promise are the EURGBP and the EURJPY. Even then, from the perspective of a swing trader, none of the two pairs appears to offer favourable trading opportunity with minimal risk or much confidence either way. I will be on the sideline until there is clarity in market direction.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #293
  • Oct 22, 2017 4:03pm Oct 22, 2017 4:03pm
Regarding EURGBP, I am neutral on the pair. There is need to step aside for a while in the early part of next week for clarity of price action and market direction. However, if price action retraces to around the 0.89700 area this may offer an opportunity to look for a sell trade.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Quoting KeenPips
The markets on the pairs I am watching are at the crossroads at the moment. Some are at levels where the price action is ambivalent and there is little to trade either way. The two pairs that appear to have some promise are the EURGBP and the EURJPY. Even then, from the perspective of a swing trader, none of the two pairs appears to offer favourable trading opportunity with minimal risk or much confidence either way. I will be on the sideline until there is clarity in market direction. Trade safe and prosper. KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #294
  • Oct 22, 2017 4:10pm Oct 22, 2017 4:10pm
Regarding EURJPY, I will wait on the sideline until there is clarity of price action and market direction on the pair. Technically, price action is at a crossroads; not much to trade for northward, and a southward trade is not technically supported. Presently, there is little to gain by trading northward and there will need be a huge retracement before a buy trade could be taken. Any immediate southward trade is not likely to yield much and may be risky as the market structure on higher time frames (monthly and weekly) is slightly in favour of bulls. I am speaking as a swing trader.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
The markets on the pairs I am watching are at the crossroads at the moment. Some are at levels where the price action is ambivalent and there is little to trade either way. The two pairs that appear to have some promise are the EURGBP and the EURJPY. Even then, from the perspective of a swing trader, none of the two pairs appears to offer favourable trading opportunity with minimal risk or much confidence either way. I will be on the sideline until there is clarity in market direction. Trade safe and prosper. KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #295
  • Oct 29, 2017 3:41am Oct 29, 2017 3:41am
I will be bearish on the EURUSD this week unless fundamentals threaten my weekly technical outlook. Here's why.

On the H4 timeframe, price action has been ranging (area bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines) since late September 2017. Last week Thursday, price action broke the range southward. But the last session on Friday saw the bulls pushing price back northward. If the bulls succeed in this move in the early part of this week, we may see price action retesting the range before any southward turnaround. I will be interested in a retracement to the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing down; from where I will look for a sell trading opportunity.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_29th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #296
  • Nov 5, 2017 12:56pm Nov 5, 2017 12:56pm
Here's why I will be bearish on the EURUSD.

After the drop of price from the high of May 2014, on the weekly time frame, price action on this pair since February 2015 to December 2016 has been consolidating. A retracement of price action to the 50 Fib level of the drop from the high of May 2014 to the low of December 2016 was seen on this pair in September 2017. Thereafter, price action has turned southward respecting a resistance trendlne (chocolate colour) from the high of September 2017. A trendline line from the low of January 2017 (navy colour) is in play. The most recent price action has been bearish and has breached the monthly central pivot. The technicals on the weekly time frame support a southward move.

On the H4 time frame, price action which has been operating in an ascending channel since March 2017 started bearing southward in a descending channel in September 2017. Last week, the most recent price action consolidated against the impulsive southward move and can be expected to give way to a bearish continuation. The technicals on the H4 time frame favour further southward move. A break of the channel support is likely to target the 1.13210 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #297
  • Nov 12, 2017 2:33pm Nov 12, 2017 2:33pm
Here's why I am bearish on the USDCAD.

On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner ascending trendline (magenta colour) and it is now bearing southward respecting a resistance trendline (forest green colour). Price action has moved southward within a channel formed by this resistance trendline and a support trendline from some of the recent lows but it is now located around a minor support area on the H4 time frame; this location is in confluence with the support provided by an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 8, 2017. We may see price action consolidate in this area for a while or pull back to retest the resistance trendline (upper forest green coloured trendline) before a bearish continuation. A break of support is likely to target the 1.25520 area. This may extend to the 1.24370 area, the next support on the H4 time frame.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_12th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 49 KB
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  • #298
  • Nov 19, 2017 2:54pm Nov 19, 2017 2:54pm
I am bearish on the GBPNZD. Here's why.

Technically, the NZD has been on the southward mode against the majors in the recent past. The situation obtains on this pair. On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of October 3017. But the long upper wick on the candlestick formed last week indicates that bears were pushing price southward. This may result in a retest of the trendline.

On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within an ascending wedge and two price waves have formed within it. The third price wave began on Friday and is likely to head southward; otherwise we may see a consolidation of price action or a retest of the resistance line of the wedge. Notice that an inner ascending trendline (blue colour) is being respected as support by price action and current location of price action is about 150 pips above it; so a retest of the trendline may be expected. A breach of this support trendline is likely to see bears target the channel line below, resulting in the completion of the third price wave within the channel. Nevertheles, price action around the 38.2 Fib zone of the recent upward swing (in the region of the 1.92350 area) and around the 61.8 Fib retracement zone (in the region of the 1.90580 area) should be watched. But a breach of the 78.6 Fib zone, just below the support line of the wedge (around the 1.89350 area), is likely to result in a bearish turnaround on this pair.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_19th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 54 KB
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  • #299
  • Nov 26, 2017 2:23pm Nov 26, 2017 2:23pm
Here's why I will look for the opportunity to trade GBPAUD northward.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour). The recent price action is in a consolidation phase. This may result in a retest of the support trendline before further northward move. We may expect such a pullback to target the 1.73760 area. An initial target for bulls is the 1.76250 area, which is an extension of the immediate resistance zone.

On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour). However, the price action is in an area of consolidation and momentum seems to be waning. This may lead to a pullback in the early sessions this week before a bullish continuation.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_26th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 46 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_26th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 46 KB
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  • #300
  • Nov 26, 2017 3:20pm Nov 26, 2017 3:20pm
I am bullish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retracement to around the 1.73760 area before looking for a buy trading opportunity.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Here's why I will look for the opportunity to trade GBPAUD northward. On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour). The recent price action is in a consolidation phase. This may result in a retest of the support trendline before further northward move. We may expect such a pullback to target the 1.73760 area. An initial target for bulls is the 1.76250 area, which is an extension of the immediate resistance zone. On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour). However,...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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