Back To Basics - Looking to improve

This thread is aimed at documenting my trades over the coming weeks, with a hope to be able to reflect and analyse my successes and failures. I've left it open so that people can both suggest improvements and take guidance if I prove successful; here's hoping

It would be wonderful if people want to get involved and point out my mistakes.

The idea is to post my thoughts/screenshots / entries and exits/profits and losses.

I am by no means a 'successful trader', but I do want to improve.

Let's see how it goes.

First post to follow shortly.

Pair: GBPUSD
TF: Multiple
White: Monthly Trendline - TOP
Yellow: Weekly Resistance

Where to start.. OK; I think I'm going to give myself a high-level overview, to begin with, and drill down as I go and see how it pans out. Firstly I will focus on my thoughts from a technical perspective; I'll attempt to introduce fundamentals and sentiment were possible.

The chart below shows a weekly view of the pair. There has thus far been two rejections of the Monthly trendline. Although a point to consider is the second week is not yet completed.



The below daily chart confirms this outlook. Although, it would seem that the bulls are once again putting pressure towards the monthly trendline.



However, the lower time frames below are starting to show signs of bulls running out of steam.



Short term conclusion:

After BOE statement earlier in the week along with monthly trend line resistance, it would seem that price has been rejected in the short term. Sentiment remains bullish which would serve as a warning against short positions. Retail M/M data is due out in the morning and it would seem that we are in a temporary consolidation outside of UK trading hours.

If retail data is positive tomorrow, I would expect a retest of the 1.36 resistance. Weak data or another rejection of 1.36 would suggest a possible short back towards the 1.33 zone.

Entries/Exits
Long: 1.36322 - ATR on 4H chart is 500 pips* The price should hopefully avoid any spikes.
Short 1.34500 Weak support around 1.3460

No Exits set small scout trades only until direction determined.

Fingers Crossed.

Update: 21/09/2017

Pair GBP/USD

TF:1wk/1D

1D


1WK


So 2 days on and the market hasn't really made a move worth noting.

The overall trend is still bearish, the short-term sentiment is bullish. Two Doji on daily charts followed by bullish candle for today (9pm GMT)

Thought: I have two downtrend channels. One on the Month TF which I am not 100% sure is a valid trendline and the one that I am using (blue) which comes from 2014.

With one day to go for this trading week; will we see a breakthrough. If so, then the target would be around 1.382x I will update accordingly if bulls continue.

May we see another bounce from the 1.36 resistance as people lock profit for the weekend? if so, would the downtrend then continue? if so, my target would be 1.345 second target is 1.324x

I would hope for confirmation on Monday of either a continuation or a correction.

Thoughts, please?

https://charts.mql5.com/16/264/gbpus...london-ltd.png

Sell target hit, trade open. now I am committed!

Emotional state: scared haha.

Target: 1.32638 - this is a support area - is this a realistic target? too much? I don't know. I will have to follow the price and see.

nice solid trading!

Thanks! I am trying to get better. here's hoping

Scaling in at point above.

Currently sitting at 888 pips profit.

Let's hope US data doesn't mess it all up.

The market rebounded from 1.337.

I have averaged down as primary direction still seems valid.

Volatility attributed to upcoming fundamentals.

The maximum risk is now allocated to this trade.

I am hoping to ride it to profit.

.01 x2 lots
.05 x1 lots

I closed out at 1.332

Profit this trade was £310.06 .05 lot

Scout closed at 1.34226 @ £2.86 profit

Total Proft £312.92

Reason for closing: Selling weakness starting to show. True Trend is still bullish, the Short-term trend is bearish. Price is seeming to stick at the 1.34xx area showing additional support.

Will look for re-entry this evening.

Second Trade

Pair: GBPUSD
Risk: Low
Lot 3x 0.01 entries



Correction to my previous post in regards to market direction. (that's what I get for rushing)

The long-term sentiment is still bearish as seen above.



The above chart shows a strong bull movement over the last month or so with price being rejected @1.36xx

There is some short-term support around the 1.34 that is proving to be a thorn to me.

My personal sentiment is that we are going down; however, I want to try and keep my personal opinion out of the decision process as much as possible, though this is hard.

My considerations for tomorrow: if we see a break below the 1.34 i will be looking to target the fibo retracement line @23.6.

if we retest the trendline and there is a clear push I would be looking towards the 1.38 mark.

Low risk trades with a med risk if I catch a move.

As always, if anyone is willing to offer advice and a fresh pair of eyes, I am happy to hear. Also, if you have another way of confirming?

My short target was hit @ 1.34422
Current pip profit is 124 pips.

looking like this is going to be a good trading day!

Soft Target is 1.32638
Hard Target is 1.31375

Also, my risk profile is positive now, I am able to look at another trade. Will scout out a new market for tomorrow.

Happy Trading

Soft Target met @ 1.32638

Trade still open as lots of downwards pressure.

DOWN WE GOOO!!

Update:

So today has been a good day for me an cable, strong short position to the 1.325x area has me netting about 150 pips for the day.

Historically, bears have pushed hard at this point; however, this is a key resistance zone looking at the historical one day chart.

TP set at 1.3170 - this is a risk off due to possible range and to avoid days of swaps if range continues. Will look to re-enter if TP is hit.

If bulls take over SL set at 1.34 BE. technical still look good for short term bear strength.

As always, if anyone reads this, please feel free to comment.

Risk

Since I have net floating profit of 150 pips; I now have enough floating profit to satisfy my money management system.

I will now look for a new trade to diversify.

Any thoughts?

trade still running. currently at 180 pips.

Big news day tomorrow. Will probably close before US open or move SL to a profit point

TP hit! @ 1.31972

awesome trade @ 245 pips in total.

Not had time to look for another trade yet. will try tonight.

Pair: GBPUSD
TF: 1D
Sentiment: undecided.



Last week I closed the trade for a nice profit. The market fell a little further; not massively concerned as I am happy I just made pips, and I got most of the move.

This week the price is currently sitting on 1.30 support. The last few times the price has been at this point, sellers have not had much of an issue pushing it down towards 1.28. However, we are at a crossroads; there is a daily trend line support, which could potentially reinforce this position.

No real news to watch out for tomorrow. Maybe a potential rejection from 1.30 only thing that puts me off of this view is the downward pressure from last week.

Is this sterling weakness? People closing off positions and looking for a better long? I'm not sure.

Targets:

Short: 1.2873 if the support fails then the trendline fails too. They are so close the price can't squeeze there for long so I'd expect further shorting pressure. However, as this goes against my gut feeling, i'd only be in to the 1.28 mark. Am I starting to follow the herd? Maybe short is the way to go.

Long: 1.40 - ok, This is a bold move I'll agree. Let me explain



Even though the downtrend is still valid and we could be in a correction phase; for the downtrend to continue we would need to post a new low.
Throughout 2017 there has been consistent upward pressure. That being said, the UK Economy is balancing on a knife edge at the moment, it wouldn't be so difficult to give us a push and topple the house of cards we currently sit on.

On the assumption upward pressure continues passed the trendline then the monthly resistance would sit at 1.40. Another consideration would be the fibo .38 level that marries up with the monthly resistance.

Conclusion:

A new low hasn't been posted in 37 weeks; we currently sit at a pivotal point as far as technicals are concerned. The trend support breaks and we quickly head back towards the mid 20's, or we see continued upward pressure towards 1.35 trendline.

I feel the lower trendline will be tested once more so potential buy limit @1.2990 unless market continues to fall, then I will target short as mentioned earlier. I am hoping for a bounce and a rally back up to the 1.35 region. However, hope has no place in trading so I will watch for further confirmation before pulling the trigger.

Let's see if we can catch us another good trade.

BAH - I missed my entry

well... I missed my entry since the market didn't push to my limit order. Shame but hey... I wanted to add my trade to a live account for the explorer and didn't take the login details to work with me so lost the option to enter early thus rushing my entry and getting it wrong.

Entered at 1.3171 and averaged down at 1.3131 saving myself 40 pips off the price. Luckily leverage wasn't set up correctly so I think I'm in 1:1.. gonna be rich!




we have a nice bullish candle there so feeling happy about the direction of the trade so far. My original soft target was 1.3157 as per broken line but due to the late entry, my new soft target is the 1.33x zone. Price action to confirm over the next day or so.

Overall long target remains 1.40 but we shall see.

Instrument: Gold
Time Frames: Multiple

I've never traded gold before, always favouriting currency pairs as I feel I understand the mechanics a little more than most other instruments. Time to take on a challenge.

Since I've not looked at gold before I thought it prudent to watch for a little while; make some observations and see if I can get into the flow of it.

I won't pretend to understand the fundamentals of gold. I get that it trades opposite to the dollar; for the most part, I know why. Does this effect intraday price or just long term?



Weekly shows an Ascending Triangle MA show clear uptrend with 90% of the bear candles not breaching the 25day MA. This suggests that the 25ma is acting as a support zone.

Price is range bound between a relatively large channel with some soft support around 1268 area. The previous tops @ 1295 have been breached, and selling pressure is losing with the average price rising.



MA's are showing downward pressure, but since this is lagging, I feel this should be ignored; countered in fact by the two very bullish candles.

historically, when the price has been below the MA, we have had a reasonably large bull rally to correct with price crossing back to the upside.

Therefore, I conclude that my sentiment for this is bullish along with the ascending triangle, price below moving average and bounce off fib 38 zones. I surmise that the price will continue towards the 1305 zone.

Optimal Entry has been missed @ 1268 with just under half of the move being lost already. 1295 is a concern.

Scout trade only. .01 lots low leverage to gauge direction and feel for this market.

This is the first time I've looked at this market. fingers crossed eh?

So there ya go; beginning of week 2 and two markets currently being watched.

my money management rules now stipulate that I need a 5% net gain before I can open a new trade. I can float that risk into my profit if and when I get there.

but for now, my trades are set and the markets will tell us the rest of the story.

Any suggestion what market I can look at next? I want to avoid correlation on FX pairs so something that is liquid and not GBP USD based.

Let me know if anyone who reads this (does anyone read this?) would like to suggest a market for me to get into..

see ya tomorrow.

T

p.s. bugger, opened a 1 lot trade on real money account.. I wanna cry. amateur mistake