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USD/CAD

  • #12,161
  • Sep 26, 2017 9:58am Sep 26, 2017 9:58am
financial monetary policy geezers will turn this pair bullish this week

target 1.2540
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #12,162
  • Sep 26, 2017 10:19am Sep 26, 2017 10:19am
It looks lot like a continuation pullback.

It needs a pullback to the downside short of that swing low and then a quick retracement to affirm it's a reversal to the upside.

For now, technical readings indicate it's still a bearish trend. The momentum on weekly and monthly charts strongly favor to the downside.

Also, US Congress is not getting anywhere with the ACA repeal and that makes the proposed tax reform less likely to be passed. That doesn't bode well for the US dollar.
  • #12,163
  • Sep 26, 2017 10:25am Sep 26, 2017 10:25am
Well, ya never know, as this sort of thing is subject to interpretation. But it looks a lot like an ascending triangle and a whole lot of buying to me. More like the start of a new trend. but as always with the markets, it will be much easier to refute this or back pedal in a few weeks. :-)
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There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #12,164
  • Sep 26, 2017 12:02pm Sep 26, 2017 12:02pm
I missed selling at 1.24. I hope it gets back so i can go short.


I totally agree with you and i'll do the same when the price will hit around 1.24-2450
  • #12,165
  • Sep 26, 2017 12:10pm Sep 26, 2017 12:10pm
Or the sumbitch can come crashing right back down, as evidenced by the 2H pin at Resistance. Always gotta be on your toes and ready to change with the turning tide.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #12,166
  • Sep 26, 2017 8:22pm Sep 26, 2017 8:22pm
Divergence ??? I'm not sure if it's a little bit forced !!!
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  • #12,167
  • Sep 26, 2017 8:50pm Sep 26, 2017 8:50pm
Quoting CrazyEd
Divergence ??? I'm not sure if it's a little bit forced !!! {image}
Or.............
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,168
  • Sep 26, 2017 8:51pm Sep 26, 2017 8:51pm
Quoting CrazyEd
Divergence ??? I'm not sure if it's a little bit forced !!! {image}

very interesting. imo i would stand back from a sell, purely out of co-related reasons with USD, which is gaining strength in cable and EU (according to my opinion ofc).
regarding your take on divergence, in my own experience i have always 'followed' the direction of the rsi, or stch in this case. so i would go long with the correlations mentioned and the direction of the indicator. best of luck
  • #12,169
  • Sep 26, 2017 10:13pm Sep 26, 2017 10:13pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Or............. {image}
CrazyEd has the divergence trade correctly drawn. Yours is the speculative level that created the divergence. The divergence trade to it's target levels is not obtainable until after it breaks the strength keeping it down (or up, depending on trend)

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Just my two pips, but divergence (especially on the daily charts) is market participants letting you know that there is hesitation to continue moving in a certain direction. The trend is your friend though, until the market as a whole has a reason to act on breaking the strength of the divergence move it will continue to attempt to obey the structure. That is where we come in, we've identified the market's intent, and now just have to be patient for it to act on it's intent or speculate the outcome and accept the risk that comes with that decision too.
  • #12,170
  • Sep 26, 2017 10:32pm Sep 26, 2017 10:32pm
Quoting Synabear
{quote} CrazyEd has the divergence trade correctly drawn. Yours is the speculative level that created the divergence. The divergence trade to it's target levels is not obtainable until after it breaks the strength keeping it down (or up, depending on trend) {image} Just my two pips, but divergence (especially on the daily charts) is market participants letting you know that there is hesitation to continue moving in a certain direction. The trend is your friend though, until the market as a whole has a reason to act on breaking the strength of the...
I didn't comment on whether the hidden divergence was correct or not. I'd say the classic daily divergence has been confirmed by price action already
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,171
  • Sep 26, 2017 10:38pm Sep 26, 2017 10:38pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} That doesn't make any sense but thx for weighing in. I didn't comment on whether the hidden divergence was correct or not. I'd say the classic daily divergence has been confirmed by price action already
If you assume that the 'buy' trade is on just because your indicator has divergence you are speculating that it has begun. It buys back to the trend line, from there the market has to act to continue the trend, or break the trend and continue your buy.

Your take profits are unobtainable without breaking the current bear strength. Your trade is speculative right now, you don't have the market's backing right now. That's all I'm saying.
  • #12,172
  • Edited Sep 27, 2017 12:10am Sep 26, 2017 10:46pm | Edited Sep 27, 2017 12:10am
Quoting Synabear
{quote} If you assume that the 'buy' trade is on just because your indicator has divergence you are speculating that it has begun. It buys back to the trend line, from there the market has to act to continue the trend, or break the trend and continue your buy. Your take profits are unobtainable without breaking the current bear strength. Your trade is speculative right now, you don't have the market's backing right now. That's all I'm saying.
Not taking the trade just because there is divergence. Two weeks of higher highs with higher lows on the 4H, sentiment change, some fundamental reasons, and the negative correlation with oil has broken which tells me the potential is to the upside. Buy low sell high.

But I do get what your saying. Technically, even by my own analysis, there isn't a breakout until daily price closes above the 34 EMA (that's always been one of my favorite dating back to Raghees Horner's book and the "Dave" wave) and here it has been a good resistance level all the way down. Also, price now clearly is contained and still hasn't penetrated the previous major S\/R level.

On the other hand, price is trading above the weekly pivot with demand likely waiting below 1.23 where some shorts are probably trapped. So I'm comfortable holding long as I still believe the greater potential is to the upside

Anyways no risk for me now. All positions in green most SLs to BE+

Cheers.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,173
  • Sep 27, 2017 8:20am Sep 27, 2017 8:20am
For me flag 2 is like flag 1 !! bear flag, just a corretion, a pause in the downtrend, and the price is stalled below the 50% fibb who did well resistance in the past. In confluence with the bearish divergence I'm for the bear trend continuation.
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  • #12,174
  • Sep 27, 2017 8:22am Sep 27, 2017 8:22am
Taking a short - pair looks weak even with $ strength
  • #12,175
  • Sep 27, 2017 8:47am Sep 27, 2017 8:47am
Quoting Snowden
Taking a short - pair looks weak even with $ strength
Nothing much will happen until Poloz's speech is cleared. USDCAD right now is tagging ascending broken weekly trendline, 4h 200 sma, and horizontal support turned resistance. Tiny chance anything happens until Poloz is done talking. If he reiterates what his deputy said, it will be a shift in the trend(driven mostly by $ demand, the tariff thing and jawboning by the CB) barring tax failure.
  • #12,176
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:37am Sep 27, 2017 10:37am
Quoting Snowden
Taking a short - pair looks weak even with $ strength
locked at b/e and let Poloz finish the job
Amen
  • #12,177
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:40am Sep 27, 2017 10:40am
Well I been short since last week's FOMC spike, but since then the trades haven't really gone anywhere. I am still at a slight loss. Holding.
Frustrating but then again, it's the loonie. Ofc it's frustrating!

Hourly chart posted
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  • #12,178
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:48am Sep 27, 2017 10:48am
Quoting Snowden
{quote} locked at b/e and let Poloz finish the job Amen
Taken out... and new short from 412....
  • #12,179
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:53am Sep 27, 2017 10:53am
Maybe 1.25 is a target
  • #12,180
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:56am Sep 27, 2017 10:56am
From what Poloz said, December hike might be dismiss as well..
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