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USD/CAD

  • #12,141
  • Sep 23, 2017 3:26am Sep 23, 2017 3:26am
Quoting MrPresident
it's weird that CAD is so bullish even though in Canada, we have high unemployment, high household debt, and a very poor economic outlook for the future. i think that the market has it wrong The unemployment rate will go up even further since we have strikes and layoffs in Ontario and Alberta is not looking good either. People are starting to save money instead of spending it.
Yes you correct.. I will seek Shorts from next week.. it might be a huge one..
  • #12,142
  • Sep 23, 2017 4:43am Sep 23, 2017 4:43am
Quoting raklian
{quote} The primary reason CAD is bullish compared to the USD is that BoC has portrayed an interest rate hike path with a trajectory slope that's higher than that of the FED Reserve's forecast of its own interest rate hikes. Of course, it's all in the short term. This can change if Governor Poloz says due to moderating CPI figures, BofC will hold off hiking interest rates for the foreseeable future.
I disagree that the future interest rate path is the "primary" reason. If that were the case the US dollar would have be skyrocketing verse other currencies during 2017.

Overall, most developed nations have many of the same issues: Stagnant wages, tepid spending, increasing household debt. So It's hard to say that any of the numbers related to these issues is of tantamount importance in the short term from a fundamental perspective.

Imho, the driver of UCAD price since the spring time is more likely related to the these things:

1) The continued negative sentiment surrounding the US government's instability and inability to pass any meaningful legislation. Imo, this has been weighing down the dollar verse virtually all other currencies.

2) Since May, oil and gold are up roughly 15%, and lo and behold USD/CAD is down about 15%

3) In 2017 Canadian GDP and employment has shown some tepid signs of improvement.

Think about it: UCAD sold off 15% and in that time the US hiked rates 3 times to Canada's 0. Clearly the present/future rate hike path wasn't the driver of price for 2017.

Cheers
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,143
  • Sep 23, 2017 4:47am Sep 23, 2017 4:47am
Im not arguing with the possibility of success with shorting CAD in the short term, but with regards to fundamentals hasn't Canada just reported the fastest quarterly growth in 7 years and highest growth of the G7 countries. Along with massive increase in household spending, which mean higher interest rates, which means higher CAD...

I see 1.18x likely in USDCAD before any meaningful reversal.
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #12,144
  • Sep 23, 2017 5:29am Sep 23, 2017 5:29am
try to revieuw...

weekly chart bullish not yet comfirmation, but we can see next week..

looking for new high on daily chart and than lower high.
hope usefull

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i'm ever lose $2000, now time to go grow up
  • #12,145
  • Edited 3:40pm Sep 24, 2017 3:15pm | Edited 3:40pm
Longer term OIL/UCAD generally share a negative correlation.

For a couple of weeks now the OIL/UCAD correlation has broken down. Oil has slowly gained and UCAD had also slowly gained as well. Imho, this is a sign of UCAD strength. What's going to happen if/when oil sells off. Theoretically, UCAD should accelerate it's gains upward.

The Daily chart below shows what happened last time the correlation broke down and what happened afterwards. I'm holding UCAD longs into October and hopefully longer depending on when/if oil eventually sells off.

Cheers all, safe trading
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,146
  • Sep 24, 2017 4:19pm Sep 24, 2017 4:19pm
Hello fellow traders,

Speculating short on h4.

Thanks

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"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solv
  • #12,147
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:41am Sep 25, 2017 12:41am
Quoting Expo33
Longer term OIL/UCAD generally share a negative correlation. For a couple of weeks now the OIL/UCAD correlation has broken down. Oil has slowly gained and UCAD had also slowly gained as well. Imho, this is a sign of UCAD strength. What's going to happen if/when oil sells off. Theoretically, UCAD should accelerate it's gains upward. The Daily chart below shows what happened last time the correlation broke down and what happened afterwards. I'm holding UCAD longs into October and hopefully longer depending on when/if oil eventually sells off. Cheers...
Just as a follow up, there is also a bearish Wolfe wave with divergence showing up on the daily chart for crude. Pivot/Fib confluence in addition to price entering a supply zone. Any significant correction down should give UCAD some life
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,148
  • Sep 25, 2017 1:53am Sep 25, 2017 1:53am
Quoting shyean
Hello fellow traders, Speculating short on h4. Thanks {image}
Your insight is good but the entry is somehow too forced and thus too risky in my opinion.
I would wait this move instead
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Quoting Expo33
{quote} Just as a follow up, there is also a bearish Wolfe wave with divergence showing up on the daily chart for crude. Pivot/Fib confluence in addition to price entering a supply zone. Any significant correction down should give UCAD some life {image}

I don't want give you lesson how to trade, I am sure you know very well, but this is just my opinion. Hope this will not upset you.

The idea is that WTI is unclear for now.

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #12,149
  • Edited 5:55pm Sep 25, 2017 11:49am | Edited 5:55pm
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Your insight is good but the entry is somehow too forced and thus too risky in my opinion. I would wait this move instead {image} {quote} I don't want give you lesson how to trade, I am sure you know very well, but this is just my opinion. Hope this will not upset you. The idea is that WTI is unclear for now. {image} {image} {image} {image}
No offense taken. Yes, oil unclear and that's why I'm not advocating for anyone to short oil. Just posing a rhetorical question, "if oil corrects to any degree, then what does that mean for UCAD?" Answer: UCAD gaining more momentum to the upside. Like I said oil rising and UCAD rising too is like writing on the wall.

I trade a bit differently than you for sure. I am a contrarian trader and am looking for short term corrections based on market imbalances. As in your picture resistance trend line broken. As you have drawn a return or retest of that trend line is precisely the target profit line for the Wolfe wave I posted. If that correction takes place then UCAD will likely reach my short term target of 126. If it doesn't take place then UCAD may still remain in a range as it has broken it's negative correlation with oil for 2 weeks now.

Cheers
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,150
  • Sep 25, 2017 11:54am Sep 25, 2017 11:54am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} No offense taken. Like I said oil rising and UCAD rising too is like writing on the wall. Oil is coming into supply zone now. NK antics have pushed it a bit higher today. My only point is that there may be a potential correction soon which would add much more strength to UCAD
UCAD has reached a significant support-turned-resistance level of 1.2400 so the reward-risk considerations are not favorable until it breaks through that level in an obvious manner, with a clear pullback and retracement to follow through.
  • #12,151
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:22pm Sep 25, 2017 12:22pm
Quoting raklian
{quote} UCAD has reached a significant support-turned-resistance level of 1.2400 so the reward-risk considerations are not favorable until it breaks through that level in an obvious manner, with a clear pullback and retracement to follow through.
UCAD making higher highs and lower lows on the 4H for 2 weeks now. Weekly doji reversal pattern with a 300 pip doji hammer on the monthly so far.

I think people are also missing the fundamentals right now. Anyways, I've already built a longer term long position from 122.85 and will add more if and when new resistance levels are broken.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,152
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:27pm Sep 25, 2017 12:27pm
[quote=Expo33;10327043]{quote} UCAD making ...


Take a look at the COT report !!! There ´s something happening !! The OI double up in a week !!!
  • #12,153
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:33pm Sep 25, 2017 12:33pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I think people are also missing the fundamentals right now. Anyways, I've already built a longer term long position from 122.85 and will add more if and when new resistance levels are broken.
I don't know. I think it's best to wait until the end of this week to be certain since there are important fundamental news for CAD and USD such as the upcoming CAD m/m GDP on Friday and a speech by BoC Governor Poloz in the middle of this week. If Poloz reaffirms another hike and the m/m GDP shows another stronger than expected reading, it's downhill from here.
  • #12,154
  • Edited 12:51pm Sep 25, 2017 12:38pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting raklian
{quote} I don't know. I think it's best to wait until the end of this week to be certain since there are important fundamental news for CAD and USD such as the upcoming CAD m/m GDP on Friday and a speech by BoC Governor Poloz in the middle of this week.
There's important news every week. Next week is US earnings and NFP with Canadian employment numbers. Should we wait until the end of next week? Of course not. Heck, we just had an unexpected Rate hike in Canada and yet UCAD has rebounded. That in itself should tell us something.

I just trade my charts with one eye on sentiment, one eye on the bigger fundamental picture, and two eyes on the cute college girl across the street

Anyways, shorts are already trapped below the weekly pivot at 123 ish. That should be a solid support area imo. And as I stated earlier about the negative correlation with oil being broken for 2 weeks. As we speak oil has surged above 52, and yet UCAD has maintained it's gains.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,155
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:41pm Sep 25, 2017 12:41pm
[quote=CrazyEd;10327071]
Quoting Expo33
{quote} UCAD making ... Take a look at the COT report !!! There ´s something happening !! The OI double up in a week !!!
I'm not sure what your trying to say?
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,156
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:51pm Sep 25, 2017 12:51pm
I'm not sure what your trying to say?


Usually the COT report is more quiet than this !!!
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  • #12,157
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:53pm Sep 25, 2017 12:53pm
Quoting CrazyEd
I'm not sure what your trying to say? Usually the COT report is more quiet than this !!!
Still not sure what you're saying. Are you saying OIL long positions have doubled in a week????
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,158
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:58pm Sep 25, 2017 12:58pm
} Still not sure what you're saying.


OI meaning OPEN INTEREST !!! Sorry fot that !!! My picture didn't upload !!
  • #12,159
  • Sep 26, 2017 8:23am Sep 26, 2017 8:23am
I missed selling at 1.24. I hope it gets back so i can go short.
  • #12,160
  • Sep 26, 2017 9:40am Sep 26, 2017 9:40am
Dunno. based on the last week's price action, it looks super bullish to me. Multiple rejections and thrusts.
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There's always money in the banana stand.
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