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  • #82,141
  • Sep 24, 2017 2:25am Sep 24, 2017 2:25am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi dark, Thanks. Those 'impressive results' demands hard work over many years of trading and knowing and understand how some pairs trade at certain times. Before I post my chart showing those entries and exits of week 38, first important is to know what the market condition of EURUSD for the past weeks and how to identify the Market Type to trade. I have posted many times the 3 Market Types which I use to identify the forex market. Two of the Market Types is good for TMS trading and one which is not good for TMS trading. Read up on those...
I also had a sell bias on EU starting with the pin bar on Week 35 showing rejection of 1.21 level.
Week 36 was another attempt to break 1.21 and its failure was a signal to start being aggressive on the sellside on Week 37.

My question was more on the risk management side as you sold 24 lots in an environment that started giving signs of a bearish trend but was and is still bullish both on Weekly and shows strong support on the 1.1850-60 level. Besides, only Sept 20 was a bearish day with a movement that really lasted less than an hour, which means this is the only day you made money on the sellside. So my question was less about the direction of your trade and more about the size of your position, and how you built that position using ME/ME to try and learn from you.
  • #82,142
  • Sep 24, 2017 6:15am Sep 24, 2017 6:15am
Quoting chnp
{quote} hi emm, I noticed you traded eurusd pair with a big number lot. Do you trade this with 2% risk? Thanks.

Hi,

yes, always use % Risk and Position Sizing strategy.

I manage my Equity and Margin % of my trading accounts for different trade plans.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,143
  • Sep 24, 2017 6:35am Sep 24, 2017 6:35am
Quoting Rub
{quote} Here's my crack at those questions: Why sell bias in Week 37? The large candle inside the mother bar of week 35, unable to close above the BRN. Can you spot the technical conditions for sell bias? Consolidation unable to break the mother bar and the 1.2000 BRN. Why sell bias in Week 38? Same question, what were the technical conditions for sell bias? Strong moves away from the 1.2000 BRN, with pin bar about 10 candles barck and bearish engulfing bar 3 back. Week 38, was a good Price Action setup on D1 chart, what was that PA setup? Bearish...

Thanks Rub for responding. You have fairly good PA knowledge like me.
But need to learn more from professional traders like strat.

That Week 35 W1 candle is a big candle, Big E call that simply big candle. But professional trader strat has his own name for that special candle. It has a given name Weekly Control Candle WCC
That candle is not a Mother Bar because the next candle Week 36 candle is not an Inside Bar.

Using the WCC, I would be careful with market trading inside a range of that WCC High Low and I consider this Sideways Ranging Market Type and the raneg is good for short term trading. Simpy look for sell at WCC high which is resistance and buy at support which is the WCC Low as support. In ranging market type, we can trade buy or sell and wait for the breakout of the range.

On the D1 chart, the week 36 shows a D1 Pin Bar and following day close lower with TDI cross. Look at the Bearish Divergence between the PA and the TDI cross down.
That is good technical reason to take a sell bias trade.

In Week 38, there was another BEOB setup on Sep 20. Looking at the PA, there is a good chart pattern - Head and Shoulders on D1 but more easily seen in lower TF H4 and also H1. H&S is a bearish reversal pattern but the Market Type is Ranging.
Whether this H&S play out next week would be interesting as the German Parliamentary Results will be know in a few days. There will not be a majority so it may take few days for a coalition to form the next Government. ... CDU to win, I am confident they would win.

Attachment g
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Week 35 to 38 update2.png Size: 52 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,144
  • Sep 24, 2017 6:48am Sep 24, 2017 6:48am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I also had a sell bias on EU starting with the pin bar on Week 35 showing rejection of 1.21 level. Week 36 was another attempt to break 1.21 and its failure was a signal to start being aggressive on the sellside on Week 37. My question was more on the risk management side as you sold 24 lots in an environment that started giving signs of a bearish trend but was and is still bullish both on Weekly and shows strong support on the 1.1850-60 level. Besides, only Sept 20 was a bearish day with a movement that really lasted less than an hour,...

You missed the Market Type determination which is very important.
In ranging market type, we can both buy and sell, until the breakout into a new trend.
Trading in ranging market type, the probability of breaking even is high and the risk is under control when we trade with MEME.

If you consider trading MEME with the fix lot positions using 0,5ADR (100) days, below is an illustration how it is done.
Most traders do this basic model because they trade small lots with small accounts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MEME example1.png Size: 53 KB



However, in my MEME trades I use %Risk and Position Sizing for eveyr ME position, and also I use Dynamic entries based on RSI(TDI) cross in M5. That should explain why I had 24.2 standard lots closed in Week 38 Sep 18 to 22. One basket was from Week 37 close in Week 38 during that FOMC candle Sep 20.
In week 38, I had a new sell basket open on Sep 21 following the FOMC candle, and closed that basket on Sep 22 NY session. I did not want to hold open trades because of the elections in Germany.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,145
  • Sep 24, 2017 6:51am Sep 24, 2017 6:51am
MEME Trade Manager by member tibovwh.

you may want to try using this trade manager on a demo account and learn how MEME trading works.

Go to his post:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...00#post9098700

Trade only with Demo account and learn from it.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,146
  • Sep 24, 2017 7:08am Sep 24, 2017 7:08am
Quoting emmanuel7788
MEME Trade Manager by member tibovwh. you may want to try using this trade manager on a demo account and learn how MEME trading works. Go to his post: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...00#post9098700 Trade only with Demo account and learn from it.
MAGNIFICENTLY,big E.-second(Emmanuel)!!!!!!
  • #82,147
  • Sep 24, 2017 7:09am Sep 24, 2017 7:09am
Week 39 Sep 25 to 29 trading, there are 8 pairs with Weekly Control WCC ranging market type.
Your practice is to identify which 8 pairs and how you would trade them.

There are also pairs with WCC breakout already happen, see if you identify these pairs too.

Nest week is also 5 full trading days which closes the MN candle... I like this when the W1 candle and the MN candle closes in the same day/week.

Edit: typo, next week is Week 39... LOL. its last week of Sep, I am so eager for October month to start.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,148
  • Sep 24, 2017 7:36am Sep 24, 2017 7:36am
Hi All Experts/ Emmanuel


Here is my Big Picture Analysis for the coming week. Any sugestion/criticism is most welcome.

EURGBP
Can be sold straight when the market opens
or after waiting for the breakout of 15 September's Day Candle
Month is clearly bearish
Week there is an inside bar

AUDJPY
Can be bought whenever there is a clear signal for long
Week and Month are bullish
There was a breakout of WRB the previous week

USDJPY
Can be bought whenever there is a clear signal for long
Week and Month are bullish
(Better than AUDJPY)

GBPCAD
Can be bought whenever there is a clear signal for long
Week and Month are bullish

USDCAD
Waiting for the breakout
As there are 2 IB in the Week

EURNZD
Best choice so far
will sell straight on the market open
MN, W and D all are bearish


Regards
  • #82,149
  • Sep 24, 2017 10:52am Sep 24, 2017 10:52am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} You missed the Market Type determination which is very important. In ranging market type, we can both buy and sell, until the breakout into a new trend. Trading in ranging market type, the probability of breaking even is high and the risk is under control when we trade with MEME. If you consider trading MEME with the fix lot positions using 0,5ADR (100) days, below is an illustration how it is done. Most traders do this basic model because they trade small lots with small accounts. {image} However, in my MEME trades I use %Risk and Position...
Thanks
I am not sure I understand what you mean by "use sell limit orders at 0.5 ADR". You mean that once you initiate a sell, your stop is at 0.5 ADR above the entry price? Also, how does ADR compare to ATR?
  • #82,150
  • Sep 24, 2017 1:09pm Sep 24, 2017 1:09pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Week 39 Sep 25 to 29 trading, there are 8 pairs with Weekly Control WCC ranging market type. Your practice is to identify which 8 pairs and how you would trade them. There are also pairs with WCC breakout already happen, see if you identify these pairs too. Nest week is also 5 full trading days which closes the MN candle... I like this when the W1 candle and the MN candle closes in the same day/week. Edit: typo, next week is Week 39... LOL. its last week of Sep, I am so eager for October month to start.
Hi guys,

Emmanuel, I enjoyed the homework you set us, it was fun. Enjoyed the replies and collaborative atmosphere.

I am a newb, so please forgive my feeble attempt, I just cant resist giving it a go. I'm sure you guys will correct me.

So the pairs that seem to be ranging/consolidating on the weekly timeframe are:

 

  1. AUDCAD
  2. AUDUSD
  3. CHFJPY
  4. EUAUD
  5. EURCAD
  6. EURUSD
  7. USDCAD
  8. USDCHF

I am not sure if I have all 8, but I think I have a few right . We would be looking to trade between these ranges, until a breakout, right? Some combination of buying and selling that suits the individuals trading style, also using PA and TDI for entries and exits.

Break up on the EURCHF weekly chart. The same for EURJPY and GBPJPY. So we would be looking for a bullish bias in these pairs this week.?

Hope I haven't screwed this up too much, lol!

Good hunting for the upcoming week everyone!

Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance.
  • #82,151
  • Sep 24, 2017 2:41pm Sep 24, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Thanks I am not sure I understand what you mean by "use sell limit orders at 0.5 ADR". You mean that once you initiate a sell, your stop is at 0.5 ADR above the entry price? Also, how does ADR compare to ATR?

I thought my chart above would have explained that sell limit order. Now I know I did a bad job with that.

0.5ADR is the distance between every ME order entry.

ADR = Average Daily Range often talked about here.
ADR (100) is the 100 days average daily range.

You can use the ATR indicator on your platform. Set the period to 100 and read the ATR on your Daily chart TF. That would give you the ADR-100days.

If you switch your chart to H4, then that ATR is the H4 ATR 100 period which is not correct.

It tough to find time, but if you read my post from 2015 onwards, you will learn how to trade with Multiple Entries Multiple Exits ME/ME. Once you leanr it and make it work, I assure you that your retirement will be financially sound.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,152
  • Sep 24, 2017 2:41pm Sep 24, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting mazibee
Hi All Experts/ Emmanuel Here is my Big Picture Analysis for the coming week. Any sugestion/criticism is most welcome. EURGBP Can be sold straight when the market opens or after waiting for the breakout of 15 September's Day Candle Month is clearly bearish Week there is an inside bar AUDJPY Can be bought whenever there is a clear signal for long Week and Month are bullish There was a breakout of WRB the previous week USDJPY Can be bought whenever there is a clear signal for long Week and Month are bullish (Better than AUDJPY) GBPCAD Can be bought...

Good job.
Having done the hardwork, we have the easy part to do tomorrow/next 5 days. ...We trade our plan.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,153
  • Sep 24, 2017 3:46pm Sep 24, 2017 3:46pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Now I know I did a bad job with that.
You are as good and patient a teacher as I am a terrible and lazy student.
Thanks for your continued patience, I will focus on finding my answers on your previous posts before asking them here.
  • #82,154
  • Sep 24, 2017 3:52pm Sep 24, 2017 3:52pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote}...It tough to find time, but if you read my post from 2015 onwards, you will learn how to trade with Multiple Entries Multiple Exits ME/ME. Once you leanr it and make it work, I assure you that your retirement will be financially sound.
Bookmarked for reference https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1622&page=2400
Starts on a BRN page 2400
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #82,155
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:20am Sep 25, 2017 12:20am
Quoting SanAshi
{quote} Hi guys, Emmanuel, I enjoyed the homework you set us, it was fun. Enjoyed the replies and collaborative atmosphere. I am a newb, so please forgive my feeble attempt, I just cant resist giving it a go. I'm sure you guys will correct me. So the pairs that seem to be ranging/consolidating on the weekly timeframe are: AUDCAD AUDUSD CHFJPY EUAUD EURCAD EURUSD USDCAD USDCHF I am not sure if I have all 8, but I think I have a few right . We would be looking to trade between these ranges, until a breakout, right? Some combination of buying and selling...
You got 4 correct:

  1. AUDCAD
  2. AUDUSD
  3. CHFJPY
  4. EUAUD
  5. EURCAD
  6. EURUSD
  7. USDCAD
  8. USDCHF

and EURCHF too.

If price remains 'trapped' inside the Weekly Control Candle high-low range, it is range trading which is for 'experts'.

Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,156
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:28am Sep 25, 2017 12:28am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} You are as good and patient a teacher as I am a terrible and lazy student. Thanks for your continued patience, I will focus on finding my answers on your previous posts before asking them here.

Trading for many years has taught me to be very patient.

How do we measure patience?

That is easy, if anyone wants to see instant profitable results in his/her trading, then he/she has no patience.
If he/she can wait 3 to 5 years to see consistent results, then he/she has the patience to be a trader.

Trading can be very boring too because the trading tasks are repetitive. Boredom leads us to do silly things like being trigger happy.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,157
  • Edited 2:25am Sep 25, 2017 2:06am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Thanks Rub for responding. You have fairly good PA knowledge like me. But need to learn more from professional traders like strat. That Week 35 W1 candle is a big candle, Big E call that simply big candle. But professional trader strat has his own name for that special candle. It has a given name Weekly Control Candle WCC That candle is not a Mother Bar because the next candle Week 36 candle is not an Inside Bar. Using the WCC, I would be careful with market trading inside...
Thank you for the explanation, I can see where I went wrong. I honestly didn't even notice the divergence. I've read through quite a number of the attachments you've uploaded like the book on RSI, big E's posts, etc. etc. and I can see I've got more reading in front of me with strat's thread!.
I'm glad you've kept mentoring in this thread, I know I posted a little then went away when Tekkis was causing a fuss. Thank you.

EDIT:
WCC candles:
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/usd
EUR/GBP
GBP/NZD

Yen pairs trending up. Wouldn't trade the others unless I got got good price action at the boundaries of current ranges or a breakout occurred, given I mostly stick to 4hr charts probably not going to see a setup until later in the week. Further edit: Well I know I got AUD/USD wrong, but I didn't look at other's posts before I had a go!
  • #82,158
  • Sep 25, 2017 8:13am Sep 25, 2017 8:13am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Trading for many years has taught me to be very patient. How do we measure patience? That is easy, if anyone wants to see instant profitable results in his/her trading, then he/she has no patience. If he/she can wait 3 to 5 years to see consistent results, then he/she has the patience to be a trader. Trading can be very boring too because the trading tasks are repetitive. Boredom leads us to do silly things like being trigger happy.
Indeed. It really take years before you know that you are consistent.
  • #82,159
  • Sep 25, 2017 6:39pm Sep 25, 2017 6:39pm
EURUSD D1 chart trading Sep 26.
following simple rules, HA candle closed below PAC, PAC 'trend' is valid, TDI Green below Red, below Yellow and 50-level.

the risk is that Weekly Control Candle and its is ranging condition .

you can mitigate the risk with Money Management and %Risk.

we shall see if that head and Shoulders chart pattern will play out a reversal for EU.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Week 39 H_S.png Size: 33 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,160
  • Sep 25, 2017 6:52pm Sep 25, 2017 6:52pm
Quoting Rub
{quote} Thank you for the explanation, I can see where I went wrong. I honestly didn't even notice the divergence. I've read through quite a number of the attachments you've uploaded like the book on RSI, big E's posts, etc. etc. and I can see I've got more reading in front of me with strat's thread!. I'm glad you've kept mentoring in this thread, I know I posted a little then went away when Tekkis was causing a fuss. Thank you. EDIT: WCC candles: USD/CAD AUD/USD EUR/USD GBP/usd EUR/GBP GBP/NZD Yen pairs trending up. Wouldn't trade the others unless...

You got the WCC pairs correct except AUDUSD.

regarding the 9 Yen pairs, a lot going on this week in Japan and also the region. So wee look for good trading opportunities.

Trade Well and Trade Safe.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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