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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #461
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:56pm Sep 20, 2017 9:56pm
Quoting havo
THINK ABOUT THIS VERY CAREFULLY:..............{image}
Is this correct Havo?

And we should be patient to wait until the formation appear, and price break throuh the last candle in the shown direction.
edit : or simply we enter at the opening price of the next candle after the three bar formation formed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3 bar formation.PNG Size: 30 KB
  • #462
  • Sep 21, 2017 12:47am Sep 21, 2017 12:47am
Daily, weekly or monthly candlesticks offer the best probabilities. But before you trade a candlestick, consider the market structure.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #463
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:02am Sep 21, 2017 1:02am
Quoting dagoods
{quote}
hey man, why do you keep on deleting your posts like that ? thats like the 4th or 5th today.
  • #464
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:59am Sep 21, 2017 3:59am
Quoting havo
AND EDGE WITHIN A CANDLESTICK... " {image}
Hello, Havo!

What you're showing us are nice ideas for sure, but, speaking about the initial topic of this thread - it's actually not what is meant in the "higher edge in a single candlestick" statement. The reason is simply because you're talking about 3-candle reversal pattern (even though I totally understand what is the logic behind it), while the edge lies withing a single candlestick.

I mean when we have only this information and have to trade this current candle (before it's closed):

Attached Image


Timeframes don't matter here. It's just the idea and the statement itself that matter: "95% of the time price will close above or below the open."

In other words, the price always moves away from any reference point. And Japanese candlestick/regular bar (single) contains all the information that is needed to use this edge.

I suggest everyone who is trully interested in the initial topic to take a look once again at the screenshot that Neio posted here. You don't need anything else to understand the logic behind these ideas. Just watch how the price moves away from reference points (it's an open of H1 candles in Neio's example) and think how you could trade it. Of course, you don't have to use H1 candle's open as reference - you can use whatever you want.
Also, read carefully all the posts by Neio in this thread, because he'd given clear and pretty deep explanation.

P.S. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that what Havo is explaining here with his Range bars examples are not worth to study - I just want to prevent any misunderstandings, because it's a two different ideas, even though both of them are based on pure price action.

Have a great day all!

Artem
Let's go with the flow
  • #465
  • Sep 21, 2017 6:03am Sep 21, 2017 6:03am
On average the distribution of wick size is body 50% and each wick 25%. There lies your edge. But be cautious, the average human has 1 boob and 1 testicle.
  • #466
  • Sep 21, 2017 6:47am Sep 21, 2017 6:47am
Quoting artem_t
{quote} Hello, Havo! What you're showing us are nice ideas for sure, but, speaking about the initial topic of this thread - it's actually not what is meant in the "higher edge in a single candlestick" statement. The reason is simply because you're talking about 3-candle reversal pattern (even though I totally understand what is the logic behind it), while the edge lies withing a single candlestick. I mean when we have only this information and have to trade this current candle (before it's closed): {image} Timeframes don't matter here. It's just...
Dont worry man, i wasnt talking about "1 candlestick edge" only wich its way more "advanced" than what i was showing in my post.. but people in general need to grasp the concept first at least in order to go deeper

there is 1 post i gave it a like wich its key about price
  • #467
  • Sep 21, 2017 7:08am Sep 21, 2017 7:08am
Quoting artem_t
{quote}In other words, the price always moves away from any reference point. And Japanese candlestick/regular bar (single) contains all the information that is needed to use this edge. I suggest everyone who is trully interested in the initial topic to take a look once again at the screenshot that Neio posted here. You don't need anything else to understand the logic behind these ideas. Just watch how the price moves away from reference points (it's an open of H1 candles...
hey artem, since you seems to have discover this edge, how about you go first : if you were to trade that single candle, how would you do it ?
  • #468
  • Sep 21, 2017 9:41am Sep 21, 2017 9:41am
Quoting metta87
{quote} hey artem, since you seems to have discover this edge, how about you go first : if you were to trade that single candle, how would you do it ?
I haven't discovered this egde - I learned about it from CP's posts earlier. I also don't have any "holy grail" system around this.

It will be better if everyone figures everything out himself. As I said - just read and/or re-read all the posts here from Neio as everything has been already told.
Let's go with the flow
  • #469
  • Sep 21, 2017 9:54am Sep 21, 2017 9:54am
Quoting havo
{quote}..but people in general need to grasp the concept first at least in order to go deeper
Sure, I agree. Just wanted to make it clear
Let's go with the flow
  • #470
  • Sep 21, 2017 2:56pm Sep 21, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting havo
THINK ABOUT THIS VERY CAREFULLY: Since range bars the body its the same in EVERY CANDLE (body + wick if there its any) a rejection its clearly shown.. the stronger the rejection the smaller the body..
It was interesring for me, so I coded to get stats of that 3 bar pattern:
1 candle wick is less than 10% of range;
2 candle body is less than 10% of range;
3 candle wick is less than 10% of range and opposite direction of candle 1.
It's 50% that the next direction be the same like candle 3.
I changed % of range and changes only trade number, direction probability is 50:50.
  • #471
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:02pm Sep 21, 2017 3:02pm
Crucial Point said that it is imposible to predict the next candle direction.
And from my stats and backtests I am 100% with his statement.
I think the edge in candle is the volatility.
  • #472
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:13pm Sep 21, 2017 3:13pm
Quoting onojiwizard
OHLC are just reference points, take away the boxing of price into candlestick, range bar etc and trying to study price movement along y-axis. Price only moves up and down. Mundane but powerful statement, it changed my approach to markets completely
Onoji,

Could you please illustrate with a chart on how you interpret the price with emphasis on Y-Axis?

Thanks
  • #473
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:31pm Sep 21, 2017 3:31pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Onoji, Could you please illustrate with a chart on how you interpret the price with emphasis on Y-Axis? Thanks
If price move 1pip up buy and hold

Newtons First Law: a body stays at rest or uniform motion unless acted upon by a force

Until it moves 1pip down

Newtons Third Law: action and reaction are equal and opposite

making these statements into profitable trading system require a lot of work. (Brain work)
Put your mind to work.
This can be done from a reference open, high, low, close, moving average etc. Can be anything that works for you
  • #474
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:49pm Sep 21, 2017 3:49pm
Quoting onojiwizard
{quote} If price move 1pip up buy and hold Newtons First Law: a body stays at rest or uniform motion unless acted upon by a force Until it moves 1pip down Newtons Third Law: action and reaction are equal and opposite making these statements into profitable trading system require a lot of work. (Brain work) Put your mind to work. This can be done from a reference open, high, low, close, moving average etc. Can be anything that works for you
Thanks Onoji...
  • #475
  • Sep 22, 2017 12:33am Sep 22, 2017 12:33am
What is an edge?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: edge.jpg Size: 168 KB

Quoting The-Flipper
There is no edge in this stupid quote. You can say that silly thing for roulette: 95% of the time you will get either black or red. 5% of the time you will get the zero green. So move on.
Quoting metta87
A stupid quote indeed. 95% of time there will be candlesticks instead of dojis. Comon now !
An edge is a higher statistical occurrence.
I think everyone can agree to this? that an edge is simply a higher statistical occurrence.
Or the other edge... is to cheat
Is there anyone else who can give me a different definition of an edge?

So...
95% price will close above or below the open (price will move away from any reference point).
95% are candlestick 5% are dojis.
50% body 25% wick.
80% are breakouts 20% are inside bar
80% are breakouts 20% are outside bars (outside bars are breaks of S/R)
GBP/USD - 90% are more than 40points in a London-New York Session

All these are higher statistical occurrence. It's not voodoo. It's scientific higher statistical edge.
So saying that it is stupid and there is not an edge in the above statement is stupid in itself.
The PROBLEM in itself is NOT having a statistical edge. The PROBLEM is not knowing what to do with the statistical edge.

The above examples are like riddles.
And riddles require a certain level of intellect or else you won't be able to solve the riddles.
Take for example GBP/USD 90% more than 40points - After the Cable reach 40points where do you think it will likely go? knowing that there is higher statistical edge above 40points. Its a boundary... above 40 buy, below 40 sell. Of course exits and trade management is another story that will affect your result. Nevertheless, you have a statistical edge right in front of you.

No-one is going to hand you the goose that lays the golden eggs.
People should be more wary of other people handing out a goose that lays the golden egg because it is more likely to be fake.
I guess if the above statistics are very mundane and of no value - Hence the statement, "No shit Sherlock!!!"

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: double-zero-roulette.png Size: 510 KB

Quoting The-Flipper
You can say that silly thing for roulette: 95% of the time you will get either black or red. 5% of the time you will get the zero green. So move on.
For all the people who have read my posts. I mentioned that I made money playing roulette. And this is how I made money playing roulette.

Because if you draw a reference point. And for each black you draw 1scale down and for red you draw 1 scale up. For 0 you draw the opposite.
If you don't have paper and pen, you can do it in your mind; +1 for red -1 for black. 0 is minus the opposite.

You buy above the line and sell below the line. Because as long as the numbers remain above the line there will be more reds than blacks. As long as numbers remain below the line there will be more black than red. 0 is basically your spread. This is your statistical edge "95% you will either get red or black". Trade and money management was not included in this example but is required when playing roulette. The only reason I didn't continue playing roulette is because it was time consuming with very little return compare to FX. And you are not able to compound your profits like in FX.

Despite the mathematical brilliance and elegance of the House's statistical edge in roulette.
There are limited people who's able to make money from it.
Despite the mathematical genius in its construction... they needed to add 00
  • #476
  • Sep 22, 2017 2:13am Sep 22, 2017 2:13am
Quoting RondaRousey
Welcome back.
Nope. I'm not back. Just tying up loose ends.
  • #477
  • Sep 22, 2017 5:42am Sep 22, 2017 5:42am
Quoting CrucialPoint
What is an edge? {image} {quote} {quote} An edge is a higher statistical occurrence. I think everyone can agree to this? that an edge is simply a higher statistical occurrence. Or the other edge... is to cheat Is there anyone else who can give me a different definition of an edge? So... 95% price will close above or below the open (price will move away from any reference point). 95% are candlestick 5% are dojis. 50% body 25% wick. 80% are breakouts 20% are inside bar 80% are breakouts 20% are outside bars (outside bars are breaks...
What a big bullshit, so often you have so big mistakes in your postings. thats crazy, like you are very unexperienced. concentrate more on shorter textes, when you dont know basics please!

so lets help you:

your edges you mentioned are the most normal thing in the world , simple past statistics. what you mention is same like anything you can simple calculate. so you say: all things from past in trading is an edge! in last 10 years price in some currencies goes more often down then up, so an edge in this direction, price was yesterday up, so edge today,........ anything whatever price was doing in past is then edge in your eyes, ... write it this way and not so complicated. man, if you tell the people 2 is higher then 1 , this is the same.
and then you tell the exits and trademanagement will affect this trading. babe, thats more important then entry often, it not affect it changes all! entry, exit and managing postion will be together the edge, not your simple unlogic view on only the entry. never seen this wrong definition of an edge. the whole trading system has to give advantages by entry and exiting time/kind, thats an true edge! i cant see how you did it until this year in trading when you only had this informations you write here.

and then comes your next part, what shows your are not smart in math and i did see why you got your problems with math.
roulette!
you play roulette and made money from it ;-). i would not read any more, but funny maybe you got some wins by luck. and then you really think (most bad math myth) that last round in roulette will have statistic influence in next round in roulette. come on, dont misleading people with this bullshit. if you dont know math and dont have experience, hold your informations back, but this is really big bullshit.

calculate some card in blackjack if you want until they use automatic shuffle machines but dont tell people things that are against statistic and math.
the prices in forex are not independent from last prices, but in roulette its complete independent.


you problem is often, you try to sound smart, but often you write so complete wrong things, unbelievable.
  • #478
  • Sep 22, 2017 6:00am Sep 22, 2017 6:00am
Quoting dukas_trader
What a big bullshit... unbelievable.
HEY TARZAN!!!
Go School.
Learn Read.
Learn English.
  • #479
  • Sep 22, 2017 6:03am Sep 22, 2017 6:03am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} HEY TARZAN!!! Go School. Learn Read. Learn English.
oh man, you have no arguments and lose any discussion, because you are unexiernced trader and writer and very bad by math i shall go to school? come one, learn thinking logic baby.

you are not without reason known as crying child here, because any of your mistakes you try to hide.

now you do again same, writing big bullshit when you dont use articels from known informations, and people see it easy and you get in trouble because all see how unsmart you are. thats the truth.
  • #480
  • Sep 22, 2017 6:07am Sep 22, 2017 6:07am
Me no argue with Tarzan.
Tarzan don't understand.
Me waste time with Tarzan.
Me forgive Tarzan.
Tarzan Fight KING KONG.
Tarzan Lose.
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