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100 Trades Analysis

  • #501
  • Sep 17, 2017 11:33am Sep 17, 2017 11:33am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} there are two things that i care about when it comes to trading 1. Not blow up (not the same as high DD, we're talking not able to trade anymore) 2.To be NET profitable (withdrawal of deposit+profits). First and foremost goal for me which i have done. 3, consistently make profit going forward (need a lot of work in this area personally). basically i'm in a limbo in my trading career..not yet consistent..but net profitable. If bithedz let go of these trades and his account goes to ZERO, THEN i'd say, he might be a retard. Because at that...
Have you used futures yet ?
  • #502
  • Sep 17, 2017 11:38am Sep 17, 2017 11:38am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} there are two things that i care about when it comes to trading 1. Not blow up (not the same as high DD, we're talking not able to trade anymore) 2.To be NET profitable (withdrawal of deposit+profits). First and foremost goal for me which i have done. 3, consistently make profit going forward (need a lot of work in this area personally). basically i'm in a limbo in my trading career..not yet consistent..but net profitable. If bithedz let go of these trades and his account goes to ZERO, THEN i'd say, he might be a retard. Because at that...
i'm not here to convince anybody that low DD is key to success. it's not the only factor to success.

just to prove my point, world cup trading championships has been going on for years. I think this is similar competitions that Marty Schwartz used to enter and won multiple times. But there's a guy named andrea unger who won multiple times and his DD > 50%

http://www.worldcupchampionships.com/live-stats-3

http://2012tradingcontest.blogspot.c...ns-normal.html
  • #503
  • Sep 17, 2017 11:41am Sep 17, 2017 11:41am
Quoting Don96
{quote} Have you used futures yet ?
no. i've been tracking NQ so far. other that regulated price, the PA is the same. it has its moments of shit action and some days are good. just liek eurusd. perosnally i haven't been fucked by oanda, so i guess im reluctant to switch just yet. I've had TP filled at .5 pips and s/l avoid by same amount by this broker. if i was screwed consistently, i would've left long ago..
  • #504
  • Sep 17, 2017 11:44am Sep 17, 2017 11:44am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} there are two things that i care about when it comes to trading 1. Not blow up (not the same as high DD, we're talking not able to trade anymore) 2.To be NET profitable (withdrawal of deposit+profits). First and foremost goal for me which i have done. 3, consistently make profit going forward (need a lot of work in this area personally). basically i'm in a limbo in my trading career..not yet consistent..but net profitable. If bithedz let go of these trades and his account goes to ZERO, THEN i'd say, he might be a retard. Because at that...
To answer short, in past recovered some smaller accounts from various drawdowns.
I would say probably 30-40% DD still would not affect my abilities...
However 80-90% would.
How it is, I would fight like hell to come back, and probably would take back the account near BE, and then would just get too euphoric and full of myself to push too hard...happened before.
While lessons there to learn from, I found for me the best to limit max drawdown, even if it also limits profit potential to maybe 100-120% max for a year in best case; I feel it is a worthy trade off.
3 major points for me.
Without capital, there is no trading, so capital preservation is #1. With too much drawdown at hand, emotional state changes, more tendency to take too large risk, "create entries" where there isn't any, is #2. And recovery takes time, the more to recover, usually the more time it takes, and as the proverb, time is money, so that is #3.

Note: this is not the hedge fund manager talk, there some 3% dd is what permitted, complete different game.
Simple my trading also evolved to this direction that less equity swings and a more stable equity growth curve seem to suit my needs fine, and frankly realizing that taking a 100$ account and rushing to make 2000% ( happened before) isn't really better if not able to hold to it, vs. Taking a 10k account and making 20% ( also happened before).
End of the day both can be down, both is similar gains in $$$ term, but one has swings and drawdowns that took more tall on me, and due the risk taken lot higher chance to blow up completely, that was #1 point to avoid, as no capital, no trading, right?
The longer I ran ultra high risk, the higher the chance was that come an event that I finally misjudged enough to case serious damage to account, or completely blow up.
As per Murphy's Law, if such an event exits, you will sooner or late meet it, and sure I always had.

There is no right or wrong, whatever suits you.
What do you think you need as a step to come closer consistency? Since you tell that is the last mission ingredient?
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #505
  • Sep 17, 2017 11:48am Sep 17, 2017 11:48am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} What do you think you need as a step to come closer consistency? Since you tell that is the last mission ingredient?
tbh, i think it's my read of structure. i know i might get heat for saying this but there's no such thing as big losing days.

what i mean is, every day provides opportunity to make money. if lost "big", meaning you lost the size of your daily gains or more on a day, that means you didn't read the market correctly. A b/e or "small" loss is acceptable to account for noise. But not bigger.

my opinion is losing big is a function of your inability to trade or misread the particular market, not so much because you risked too much..it's a juggling between getting a good read and getting profit out of it and making sure your losses is wihtin reason so that you can recover on the same day if things change.

So that's my challenge right now, is to account all the different profile structures and make sure i have rules to trade with it and what to do when profiles changes during the day. that's the tough part...
  • #506
  • Sep 17, 2017 11:56am Sep 17, 2017 11:56am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} no. i've been tracking NQ so far. other that regulated price, the PA is the same. it has its moments of shit action and some days are good. just liek eurusd. perosnally i haven't been fucked by oanda, so i guess im reluctant to switch just yet. I've had TP filled at .5 pips and s/l avoid by same amount by this broker. if i was screwed consistently, i would've left long ago..
Trading competitions are like any other ones, you need to take risk, extra risk.
Do you think any NASCAR driver goes to pick up his kid from school with full throttle?
Do you think the same driver has a chance in NASCAR politely letting someone in front of him?

If you have enough capital, a 5-10k championship account is like a demo for a retail trader. Who cares 50% DD on a demo? Not me!!

Let's put it this way, we talked about consistency, I think the max 30% DD something that relative safely and without much damage to yourself can overcome few times, without much adjustment need to be forced to yourself, like taking larger risk than usual, etc. Even -33% needs +50% gain to bring back to BE...that is what, like 2x20% gains a month?
Of course what we not talked about what is your sustainable monthly return, not only what you think to be achievable, but the number you can hit fairly often as common monthly gains?
( but the fair number, since you struggle with consistency; so don't give me 50-100% each month, I won't believe it, lol, remember that posted profit factor screenshot)
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #507
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:00pm Sep 17, 2017 12:00pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} tbh, i think it's my read of structure. i know i might get heat for saying this but there's no such thing as big losing days. what i mean is, every day provides opportunity to make money. if lost "big", meaning you lost the size of your daily gains or more on a day, that means you didn't read the market correctly. A b/e or "small" loss is acceptable to account for noise. But not bigger. my opinion is losing big is a function of your inability to trade or misread the particular market, not so much because you risked too much..it's a juggling...
Sounds like a proposal of small drawdown...just worded it to small daily losses vs big daily losses
Having smaller daily losses than daily gains is effective a low drawdown vs gains.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #508
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:03pm Sep 17, 2017 12:03pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Trading competitions are like any other ones, you need to take risk, extra risk. Do you think any NASCAR driver goes to pick up his kid from school with full throttle? Do you think the same driver has a chance in NASCAR politely letting someone in front of him? If you have enough capital, a 5-10k championship account is like a demo for a retail trader. Who cares 50% DD on a demo? Not me!! Let's put it this way, we talked about consistency, I think the max 30% DD something that relative safely and without much damage to yourself can overcome...
people trade forex like a long term investment?

forex is unregulated with ridiculous leverage. this IS my NASCAR. i leave the everyday "driving" in 401ks/ stocks...

Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Sounds like a proposal of small drawdown...just worded it to small daily losses vs big daily losses Having smaller daily losses than daily gains is effective a low drawdown vs gains.
small DD with regards to market reads . i think it's different compared to forcing a small dd because you can't handle big dd. you see what i'm saying

like i can handle big DD intraday no problem, only becuase i believe structure is transitioning and i can recover it later.
  • #509
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:10pm Sep 17, 2017 12:10pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} no. i've been tracking NQ so far. other that regulated price, the PA is the same. it has its moments of shit action and some days are good. just liek eurusd. perosnally i haven't been fucked by oanda, so i guess im reluctant to switch just yet. I've had TP filled at .5 pips and s/l avoid by same amount by this broker. if i was screwed consistently, i would've left long ago..
yeah see my issue is the levels MP provides on Forex compared to Futures can be different, even if its by 2 pips it is a problem for me.
  • #510
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:15pm Sep 17, 2017 12:15pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} people trade forex like a long term investment? forex is unregulated with ridiculous leverage. this IS my NASCAR. i leave the everyday "driving" in 401ks/ stocks...
I get your point.
Idk, what to answer, really, I trade stocks too...

Let's just out it that way, maybe I won't be the champion driver, but finishing on the podium still better than forcing myself to push too hard and crash.
Someone needs to be 3rd too, and if in the moment that might be my best I can do, I can be content with that.
I know all achievement driven, and absolute, the best or nothing, but in this case of example I can be happy to be safely the 3rd best vs the 10 crushed and destroyed wannabes, or the other 10 just not-that-good to finish on podium.

A note on stocks, similar approach. As long as I beat the corresponding index, I don't feel bad, and sure I shouldnt.

What do you mean on your ability on big intraday drawdown to take? Can you be down 30-50% equity within the day?
( as for not opting to those numbers myself, is not necessarily inability, rather a educated choice evolved to that in a while, my best practice)

PS. Don't want to be off topic here too much, if you feel, take to my thread, or PM.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #511
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:15pm Sep 17, 2017 12:15pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} yeah see my issue is the levels MP provides on Forex compared to Futures can be different, even if its by 2 pips it is a problem for me.
i go for 15-30 pips on average with similar DD per trade. with your way, looks liek you target 10 pips and your losses are like 1-5 pips. that's a spread hit, which i have no idea how you handle that, especially with "unregulated"forex pricing as our friend divergence keep telling us. at least 95% of the time when i'm losing,it's legit price moves and i know something's up rather than noise...
  • #512
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:22pm Sep 17, 2017 12:22pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} I get your point. Idk, what to answer, really, I trade stocks too... Let's just out it that way, maybe I won't be the champion driver, but finishing on the podium still better than forcing myself to push too hard and crash. Someone needs to be 3rd too, and if in the moment that might be my best I can do, I can be content with that. I know all achievement driven, and absolute, the best or nothing, but in this case of example I can be happy to be safely the 3rd best vs the 10 crushed and destroyed wannabes, or the other 10 just not-that-good...
with my 401k, i also use profiles but only on the long side. i started investing in 401ks around 2008/2009. so when i had money to invest, i was the lucky generation Y investors out of college riding this trend up. plus it's cash so no leverage (so can't trade short anyway unless i have margin account).

i think my worst forex intraday DD is about 20%. at that point, i close down. that's when i know i fucked up and missed something so obvious or need to amend my strategy.

the testing i'm doing right now is to make sure i can make money 8/10 days. i believe with all my soul i can eventually pull off that kind of consistent wins WITHOUT large losing days..
  • #513
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:24pm Sep 17, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i go for 15-30 pips on average with similar DD per trade. with your way, looks liek you target 10 pips and your losses are like 1-5 pips. that's a spread hit, which i have no idea how you handle that, especially with "unregulated"forex pricing as our friend divergence keep telling us. at least 95% of the time when i'm losing,it's legit price moves and i know something's up rather than noise...
started adjusting the levels by looking at PA, yes i get smashed by spread more than most (if not everyone, id love to meet someone who gets it more) but i think perhaps its me being naive and taking the level for granted rather than checking PA more closely. perhaps watching how the level develops during the day for the next days also.

not sure how you trade it entirely, but if you get 8/10 wins on a consistent basis, my money goes straight to you

unless i am already there of course
  • #514
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:35pm Sep 17, 2017 12:35pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} with my 401k, i also use profiles but only on the long side. i started investing in 401ks around 2008/2009. so when i had money to invest, i was the lucky generation Y investors out of college riding this trend up. plus it's cash so no leverage (so can't trade short anyway unless i have margin account). i think my worst forex intraday DD is about 20%. at that point, i close down. that's when i know i fucked up and missed something so obvious or need to amend my strategy. the testing i'm doing right now is to make sure i can make money 8/10...
Their you go, your 20% DD cut of point isn't that far from my 10% DD cut of point in the end
Smaller swings, but same principle.
( I generally have your dream 8/10 days, for me left is to push on those daily gains...consider I increase my risk after some intraday gains booked.)
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #515
  • Sep 17, 2017 12:55pm Sep 17, 2017 12:55pm
To be down 20% on a 10000 for the day is 2000 with stop of 15 you either trading large lots or a lot of losers. If that's the case you need a better strategy. I only keep 5000 in acct and draw out profits every month for income my risk is 1.5% and yet my monthly gains are 120% less is more try it
  • #516
  • Sep 17, 2017 1:12pm Sep 17, 2017 1:12pm
Quoting Divergence
To be down 20% on a 10000 for the day is 2000 with stop of 15 you either trading large lots or a lot of losers. If that's the case you need a better strategy. I only keep 5000 in acct and draw out profits every month for income my risk is 1.5% and yet my monthly gains are 120% less is more try it
if you make 120% per month, if thats consistently then why tf are you only leaving 5k in your account, you have 2 months where you withdraw 5k... thats 10k profit, 5k left in account, if you only withdraw 5k and leave 10k in, you have withdrawn your initial amount so profit is all thats left... and low and behold you double your income/month by making 120% on 10k rather than 5k.

i'm a believer in 120% return in A month, but per month and then only leaving in 5k... something doesn't add up with your numbers, or your mentality
  • #517
  • Sep 17, 2017 1:39pm Sep 17, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} if you make 120% per month, if thats consistently then why tf are you only leaving 5k in your account, you have 2 months where you withdraw 5k... thats 10k profit, 5k left in account, if you only withdraw 5k and leave 10k in, you have withdrawn your initial amount so profit is all thats left... and low and behold you double your income/month by making 120% on 10k rather than 5k. i'm a believer in 120% return in A month, but per month and then only leaving in 5k... something doesn't add up with your numbers, or your mentality
if he's truthful about making +100% a month, thats' 5k a month for income. i think he said he just wants to live "comfortably"..not be filthy wolf of wallstreet rich.

you on the other hand, want to drive lambos and pick up hoes. that requires more than 5k
  • #518
  • Sep 17, 2017 1:51pm Sep 17, 2017 1:51pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} if he's truthful about making +100% a month, thats' 5k a month for income. i think he said he just wants to live "comfortably"..not be filthy wolf of wallstreet rich. you on the other hand, want to drive lambos and pick up hoes. that requires more than 5k
yes i do

i also want to be where this guy is with his win % https://www.forexfactory.com/trader-dale

also... that $1k you owed me could have done me some good testing. i was planning a nice 'Hilmy controlled' 'Don traded' TE for everyone to watch, and perhaps a chance for you win back your loss.

PS: i drove a Lamborghini Aventador a while back in london, not long after i passed my test through a family friend. It was fucking awesome, i have videos to prove it as well
  • #519
  • Sep 17, 2017 1:55pm Sep 17, 2017 1:55pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} yes i do i also want to be where this guy is with his win % https://www.forexfactory.com/trader-dale also... that $1k you owed me could have done me some good testing. i was planning a nice 'Hilmy controlled' 'Don traded' TE for everyone to watch, and perhaps a chance for you win back your loss. PS: i drove a Lamborghini Aventador a while back in london, not long after i passed my test through a family friend. It was fucking awesome, i have videos to prove it as well
the bet never specified when i should pay it...you missed the little detail didn't you. perhaps i'll pay end of september..or end of this year..or maybe ....

ps. i wouldn't use any bet money on a TE. remember the first $100 i gave you? did that go to the broker?
  • #520
  • Sep 17, 2017 2:27pm Sep 17, 2017 2:27pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} the bet never specified when i should pay it...you missed the little detail didn't you. perhaps i'll pay end of september..or end of this year..or maybe .... ps. i wouldn't use any bet money on a TE. remember the first $100 i gave you? did that go to the broker?
ah yes but $100, that was a little fun, 10x that amount is a lot more reliable for testing... 2% risk is more achievable and worth it instead of $2 per trade... but, 10x that amount appears to be a little too much for you

and no i did not, yes technically the bet is over on the 29th September 2017, however, you forfeited early... its like on Fifa, if you forfeit, you auto lose 3-0...
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