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  • #341
  • Sep 6, 2017 11:17am Sep 6, 2017 11:17am
That was unexpected. A strong statement yes.
But a hike. After telling everyone last time that they were going to announce previously and not do this again.
So much for not wanting to slam on the brakes that they said in July.
I give up
  • #342
  • Sep 8, 2017 7:30am Sep 8, 2017 7:30am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Not sure Reuters do an app. I know some of the squawk services have Twitter
I just found this, looks pretty impressive www.triggerbuddy.com
I'll give it a go and report back
  • #343
  • Sep 8, 2017 10:16am Sep 8, 2017 10:16am
Quoting Fader123
I give up
Hahahaha

Remember even the first hike was something of a surprise. Yes it looked a sure thing but... the way it happened, it just seemed too soon.
  • #344
  • Sep 12, 2017 12:20am Sep 12, 2017 12:20am
Hello guys!
Are y'all up for the trading week? Its GBP week, beginning with today's inflation figures to set the tone.

US CPI on the cards as well.

What's your plan?
  • #345
  • Sep 12, 2017 12:28am Sep 12, 2017 12:28am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
Hello guys! Are y'all up for the trading week? Its GBP week, beginning with today's inflation figures to set the tone. US CPI on the cards as well. What's your plan?
IMO, results cpi ppi figures shouldnt have much of an effect on BoEs decision. But i do feel the markets are over exaggerating the chance of a rate hike.

As for US, seems to me that the rally so far is more of a retracement. Long-term fundamental outlook for usd is still bearish, short-term results may be more volatile.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #346
  • Sep 12, 2017 9:54am Sep 12, 2017 9:54am
Quoting synicz
{quote} IMO, results cpi ppi figures shouldnt have much of an effect on BoEs decision. But i do feel the markets are over exaggerating the chance of a rate hike. As for US, seems to me that the rally so far is more of a retracement. Long-term fundamental outlook for usd is still bearish, short-term results may be more volatile.

You make a really valid point synicz.

However, this is likely to feed into the fear that inflation overshooting is real problem just lying by the corner.. we just might see the BOE vote 3-0-6. And that'd be a surprise obviously.

I am interested in tomorrow's wages data. The trade for me is in consecutive beat and increase.
  • #347
  • Sep 12, 2017 10:12am Sep 12, 2017 10:12am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} You make a really valid point synicz. However, this is likely to feed into the fear that inflation overshooting is real problem just lying by the corner.. we just might see the BOE vote 3-0-6. And that'd be a surprise obviously. I am interested in tomorrow's wages data. The trade for me is in consecutive beat and increase.
The rising inflation in UK is due to their currency depreciating. I'd agree that if wages were rising as well then it would justify a higher probability of a rate hike.
But the problem is that by raising interest rate now, it will only hurt consumers. I know that the markets are all talking about more bankers voting for hike etc. That is why I see that there is a skew in market expectation towards the hawkish side. There is a asymmetrical risk-reward being a contrarian here and betting against a rate hike. But that is just my opinion, I could be wrong thou. They could talk up the pound.

But lets see how the wages data goes first!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #348
  • Sep 12, 2017 9:58pm Sep 12, 2017 9:58pm
I entered a trade earlier this morning on Sept 12th 2017. I longed the GBPCHF off of a GBP CPI news report. This came in better than expected and allowed me to make about 20pips on the trade. I played this against the weaker CHF because money has been flowing out of the safe haven currencies such as the Franc due to a lessening threat with North Korea.


Inserted Video
  • #349
  • Sep 13, 2017 6:30pm Sep 13, 2017 6:30pm
Thinking of the BOE on Thursday

GDP improved slightly over the last print-
PMI services at 11 month low- albeit not by much
Long term business investment - still some uncertainty
Inflation I think is reached its peak
Consumer demand is obviously being affected by wages- took another thumping today
Manufacturing is flying - this is all because of the pound
Unemployment lowest since 1971

The economy is the main thing that concerns Carney
Perhaps he might talk about a rate hike being earlier than last month, but
Business investment - not great
PMI services slowing
Brexit uncertainty still abounds
Banks are expecting a hawkish statement, might provide some movement going into the event

Some research
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...y/2017/aug.pdf
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi.../2017/005.aspx
  • #350
  • Sep 14, 2017 2:49am Sep 14, 2017 2:49am
Quoting Fader123
Thinking of the BOE on Thursday GDP improved slightly over the last print- PMI services at 11 month low- albeit not by much Long term business investment - still some uncertainty Inflation I think is reached its peak Consumer demand is obviously being affected by wages- took another thumping today Manufacturing is flying - this is all because of the pound Unemployment lowest since 1971 The economy is the main thing that concerns Carney Perhaps he might talk about a rate hike being earlier than last month, but Business investment - not great PMI...
With the exception of the cloud of Brexit uncertainty, the fundamental picture for the GBP/BOE seems to be a mixed one, isn't it?

But add the Brexit to the mix, and it's a largely bearish one.
  • #351
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:23am Sep 14, 2017 6:23am
Game on from a hike in 2019/2020 to a hike in the coming months
Think they have missed something here.
Anyhow this will run for a bit
  • #352
  • Sep 14, 2017 11:30am Sep 14, 2017 11:30am
Quoting Fader123
Game on from a hike in 2019/2020 to a hike in the coming months Think they have missed something here. Anyhow this will run for a bit
Between 'Brexit worries' and 'out-of-control inflation'.. Looks to me like this is decision they had to make.

Are we going to see a lot of up and down trading on the GBP, with Brexit still around?
  • #353
  • Sep 15, 2017 7:07am Sep 15, 2017 7:07am
Quoting Fader123
Game on from a hike in 2019/2020 to a hike in the coming months Think they have missed something here. Anyhow this will run for a bit

Hope you are on this 4x
  • #354
  • Sep 16, 2017 1:48pm Sep 16, 2017 1:48pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Hope you are on this 4x
Couldn't get in at the price I wanted.. and missed a GBPAUD pullback to 1.69 too. But next week looks good.
  • #355
  • Sep 16, 2017 2:00pm Sep 16, 2017 2:00pm
Who is trading the NZ election next week?

I think so long as it remains a too-close-to-call affair going into the election weekend, I could be looking to short the Kiwi against any or all of JPY, AUD or GBP.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ne...KCN1BQ1O5?il=0

What do y'all think?
  • #356
  • Sep 16, 2017 2:12pm Sep 16, 2017 2:12pm
FOMC next week - what's the trade?

What's sure not priced in?

1. A September rate hike (extremely hawkish)
2. No signal or talk of unwinding QE (super dovish)
3. Signal of December rate hike (hawkish)

Any observations? Pls feel free to comment.
  • #357
  • Sep 16, 2017 2:19pm Sep 16, 2017 2:19pm
One more thing before I forget... for discussion purpose:

What's your preferred method of trading news and events?

Pls feel free to participate.
  • #358
  • Sep 16, 2017 5:01pm Sep 16, 2017 5:01pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
Who is trading the NZ election next week? I think so long as it remains a too-close-to-call affair going into the election weekend, I could be looking to short the Kiwi against any or all of JPY, AUD or GBP. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ne...KCN1BQ1O5?il=0 What do y'all think?

I think if 'Jacindamania' keeps it's momentum and her Labour Party gets in, we could be in for a very profitable day shorting NZD pairs! The current leader (Bill English) is a bit of an Economy Tsar apparently and him winning would secure the economy, ensure continuity etc... I do also believe that if Bill gets it, the pairs will go the other way and it'll be worth going long, especially against the AUD, JPY and some minor currencies.... Next week is gonna be big!

(first post yippee!)
  • #359
  • Sep 17, 2017 4:54am Sep 17, 2017 4:54am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
One more thing before I forget... for discussion purpose: What's your preferred method of trading news and events? Pls feel free to participate.
Without doubt the most profitable is a change of interest rate bias.

See recent recent BOE, CAD, decisions
  • #360
  • Sep 17, 2017 5:59am Sep 17, 2017 5:59am
Quoting 1uk3y
{quote} I think if 'Jacindamania' keeps it's momentum and her Labour Party gets in, we could be in for a very profitable day shorting NZD pairs! The current leader (Bill English) is a bit of an Economy Tsar apparently and him winning would secure the economy, ensure continuity etc... I do also believe that if Bill gets it, the pairs will go the other way and it'll be worth going long, especially against the AUD, JPY and some minor currencies.... Next week is gonna be big! (first post yippee!)
Welcome 1uk3y

Look forward to your posts
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