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  • #361
  • Sep 17, 2017 7:59am Sep 17, 2017 7:59am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Welcome 1uk3y Look forward to your posts
Thanks Fader. I'm really looking forward to posting, trading, posting and trading some more!
  • #362
  • Sep 17, 2017 2:55pm Sep 17, 2017 2:55pm
Quoting 1uk3y
{quote} I think if 'Jacindamania' keeps it's momentum and her Labour Party gets in, we could be in for a very profitable day shorting NZD pairs! The current leader (Bill English) is a bit of an Economy Tsar apparently and him winning would secure the economy, ensure continuity etc... I do also believe that if Bill gets it, the pairs will go the other way and it'll be worth going long, especially against the AUD, JPY and some minor currencies.... Next week is gonna be big! (first post yippee!)
It's good to see you around here with us @1uk3y. Welcome man!

The highlighted part is very useful info.
  • #363
  • Sep 17, 2017 3:32pm Sep 17, 2017 3:32pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} It's good to see you around here with us @1uk3y. Welcome man! The highlighted part is very useful info.
Thanks mate! I’ve been following this particular news event closely, Jascinda has lost a bit of steam in the last few days and as a result, she’s making her economic policy clear which could sway voters.. It’s reminding me of the Corbyn and Theresa May race here in the UK.. His popularity soared in the run-up but voters didn’t quite have the stomach to commit! I think her party will gain momentum and position in government, maybe enough to influence the downtrend of the Kiwi.
  • #364
  • Sep 18, 2017 6:37pm Sep 18, 2017 6:37pm
This is more of a ramble.
Carney seems to be talking quite dovish today. If they do hike it will only be one hike.
Pound could come off again when London opens.
Have a pending sell order somewhere on Cable.
Sold the long art 1.36 following a restest just before London opened. Really should have traded GJ, but really busy at the moment.
The banks do not seem that positive on the pound.
Looking ahead on the pound.
May speaks on 22nd so will be interesting to see what EU leaders think of it.
Also I think next month's CPI print could be a miss

All eyes will be on Yellen on Wednesday.
Lots of strength on the dollar after recent CPI figures plus Trumps tax reform. Any news on this will move the dollar.
Overall I am quite hopeful.
Dollar has got a bit of room to move. The markets seem not too fussed over NK. Finally.
  • #365
  • Sep 24, 2017 4:15am Sep 24, 2017 4:15am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Without doubt the most profitable is a change of interest rate bias. See recent recent BOE, CAD, decisions
Thanks Fader for setting the tone.

The discussion is still very much live. FEEL FREE TO JOIN IN GUYS.

Its always important to get the reasons right. The reasons and the nature of them may vary from trade to trade, but it has to be based on the fundamentals. Your entry strategy may also vary and change more often. Do you enter on the spike? Or do you trade after the first 5 minute candle instead? Do you wait for pullbacks or breakouts? Do you trade sentiment into the release? Intraday or swing trades?


The past week afforded me the opportunity to try my hands at a few of these strategies as the calendar was well stocked with risk events to work with. It certainly was an interesting one.
  • #366
  • Sep 24, 2017 5:14am Sep 24, 2017 5:14am
So how was y'all week? Plenty opportunities to make pips depending on your style.

What's this week going to be like?
What are the events to watch this week? What did we learn last week and how's it going to impact this week?
  • #367
  • Edited 7:09am Sep 24, 2017 5:25am | Edited 7:09am
Quick surface scan of the USD:

We have lined up a slew of FED doves and centrists (per http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx...4EG/index.html) giving speeches next week. I feel like hawkish commentary can lend a bit of support to the greenback.

Not sure how the market's going to react to this Kim/Trump/healthcare thing.

Would the USD continue to attract attention?


AUD:
RBA just love it the way things are at the moment. No plans to rock the boat. 2 RBA speakers for next week, calendar light on data.. I expect no surprises.

CAD:
Fundamentals are very bullish. Poloz to speak next week. We've had our two hikes. We can't possibly be expecting a third, can we?! Last week data not very exciting. Poloz sets the tone for GDP on Friday. Maybe Poloz hints there's no possibility for a future hike.... and we expect GDP to slow for a consecutive month.

EUR:
German election (almost didn't know this was happening) seems to biggest risk for the EUR. Fundamentals remain bullish. Last week data solid in my opinion. Draghi insists "we are not there yet on inflation". He speaks Monday and Friday. CPI figures Thursday and Friday.

BOE:
Brexit rules everything around we.
Carney wants to hike only because... well, others are hiking. But he doesn't want us to get any ideas. This is going to be a one-off. This is the way I see it from my ends.
We have the chance to hear him speak twice this week. Can a strong GDP number on Friday serve as motivation for the BOE to go one further?
  • #368
  • Sep 24, 2017 11:14am Sep 24, 2017 11:14am
What screws it up for the buck is the risk off sentiment when Trump and North Korea go for it.

With the CAD it will be worthwhile to see what the estimates are for GDP. A beat over previous would only encourage more hawkish talk from Poloz.

With the Aussie, this was a trade that was missed. Lowe has said before that he not follow what the rest of the other main currencies are doing

Any views on the Kiwi
I think Labor could get in.
If they do would be a decent short .
  • #369
  • Sep 24, 2017 10:42pm Sep 24, 2017 10:42pm
Quoting Fader123
What screws it up for the buck is the risk off sentiment when Trump and North Korea go for it.
This!

Quote
With the CAD it will be worthwhile to see what the estimates are for GDP. A beat over previous would only encourage more hawkish talk from Poloz.
This also!

Quote
Any views on the Kiwi I think Labor could get in. If they do would be a decent short .
Yes, it is a bit of a longshot. They may have to form a coalition with two parties instead one (I think). Definitely, the trade is in Labour managing to pull it off. A bit of uncertainty still remains then.
  • #370
  • Edited 1:05am Sep 25, 2017 12:50am | Edited 1:05am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} This! {quote} This also! {quote} Yes, it is a bit of a longshot. They may have to form a coalition with two parties instead one (I think). Definitely, the trade is in Labour managing to pull it off. A bit of uncertainty still remains then.
Kiwi for a bit of a thumping overnight.
Think the main driver in this is the first party who wants to cut immigration
  • #371
  • Sep 27, 2017 5:51pm Sep 27, 2017 5:51pm
More ramblings;

Cable

Took my sell on Cable off -thought we could have a pullback on Cable following Haldine's comments, but I see Carney speaks tomorrow, that might dampen things a bit. Have put a limit (sell limit order somewhere), just in case Carney changes his mind again.

Some poor UK news with Yellen/Trump news helped Cable down today. Really I am just waiting for some poor(ish) CPI figures to turn up (but have a bit of time to wait) for a big sell off- that will be a big trade


UJ

Buying the recent drop was always a good idea. Plus Yellen and Trump (tax cuts), will always help.

NZD

Peters looks as though he is going to join Labor. Uncertainty is always a great sell. Spencer (acting governor) seems to maintain the current stance.


USDCAD

I saw that CAD GDP estimates were a lot lower than last time (Friday), bit of a clue there, this could have only tempered Poloz's speech.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Its really weird after a while its like you know the personalities of the central bankers

Poloz - bull in a china shop
Carney - changes his mind, ultimately dovish
Yellen - just relived that CPI is turning a corner
Draghi- used to be an enigma, now much more cautious on what he says
Lowe- ok.
Wheeler - straight talking - no bull. You knew where you stood
Spencer - not sure yet
  • #372
  • Edited 3:37pm Sep 28, 2017 3:15pm | Edited 3:37pm
I remember reading something - someone said that trading is a mental battle and it is really

Looking at today;

Thought Carney would depress things a bit

https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=703166

Really should have got out at S1.

Think Barnier statement this morning pushed the pound up- sell limit filled.

Barnier seemed to have pulled back a bit saying there is still a long way to go, but was encouraged by May's statement.

I would expect Davis to screw it up - but perhaps he has been given a new mandate from May.

Trump advisor talking about higher taxes for certain middle classes, did not help the buck

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump...ry?id=50149729

Carney speaks again tomorrow, would expect the theme to remain the same

Might then consider going long
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  • #373
  • Sep 28, 2017 5:32pm Sep 28, 2017 5:32pm
Something to bear in mind for the future

https://www.efxnews.com/story/37100/...rd-part-nomura
  • #374
  • Edited 1:19am Sep 29, 2017 12:45am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting Fader123
I remember reading something - someone said that trading is a mental battle and it is really Looking at today; Thought Carney would depress things a bit https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=703166 Really should have got out at S1. Think Barnier statement this morning pushed the pound up- sell limit filled. Barnier seemed to have pulled back a bit saying there is still a long way to go, but was encouraged by May's statement. I would expect Davis to screw it up - but perhaps he has been given a new mandate from May. Trump advisor...
Right closed this trade at the daily pivot for 37 pips.
Just thinking if we get a re-test of this 1.345 level.
There were also some poor jobless figs in the US yesterday and not much happening release wise today
May will promise to help with defence- so you would expect EU leaders to respond in kind.
Think US traders could carry on with yesterdays sentiment
Carney might take things down a notch later on.
Overall a bit of a mixed day
Really I much prefer clear sentiment
Have a good weekend
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  • #375
  • Oct 1, 2017 3:23am Oct 1, 2017 3:23am
Current view on the pound

Monetary
Some important figures due before next meeting -(CPI and Preliminary GDP).
After reading the latest MP statement, I think the bank are going to hike
They are looking at inflation expectations for the next 3 years
GDP in the last quarter took a breather (revised down), but expectations on better figures ahead I think will improve
Recent forecasts are looking better
Recent business investment has increased
Unemployment is low and is on a trend down
Wages growth is has moderated
But would not be surprised to see a miss on forth-coming CPI figures
Against this background Carney and the IMF think that growth will moderate in the next 3 years

Geopolitical

Everything boils down to the type of trade deal we get
I think the two year transition has helped
  • #376
  • Edited 4:56pm Oct 1, 2017 4:19am | Edited 4:56pm
Something for the future - a decent trade will be on 12th October- on the decision from Winston Peters in New Zealand
If he goes with Labour would expect the Kiwi to drop
If he goes with National - it should rally
Does nothing- drop
  • #377
  • Oct 2, 2017 1:22am Oct 2, 2017 1:22am
Got some euros last night/this morning. Pretty obvious really. Closed the gap down on Sunday open

We could get a re-test - have a small limit order in place. You would expect Frankfurt and London traders to join in
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  • #378
  • Oct 2, 2017 3:17pm Oct 2, 2017 3:17pm
Missed the trade on Cable - I don't know how
Poor news on May over the weekend - talking about only lasting a year and Bojo getting in is what kicked it off
Actually thought about it last night.
Can't really be confident on the pound at the moment.
May be a pullback to a pivot level tomorrow and then some more poor sentiment
On the EURUSD trade - perhaps I should of got out on S2, but it looked a decent level to me.
Went for it a bit on that one.
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  • #379
  • Oct 4, 2017 2:34am Oct 4, 2017 2:34am
Quoting Fader123
Something for the future - a decent trade will be on 12th October- on the decision from Winston Peters in New Zealand If he goes with Labour would expect the Kiwi to drop If he goes with National - it should rally Does nothing- drop
Simple trade plan

Thanks @Fader
  • #380
  • Oct 4, 2017 2:55am Oct 4, 2017 2:55am
Quoting Fader123
...Its really weird after a while its like you know the personalities of the central bankers ...

You basically stalk them everyday -their every move, actions, and speech... you don't just know their house addresses yet!
It's the life of a fundamental trader.
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