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  • #381
  • Oct 4, 2017 10:13pm Oct 4, 2017 10:13pm
back, look like I'm missing a lot of things.
been busy outside, well, time to read back from september then~
lol

keep it up, bre~ you guys awesome.
Beyond The Gray Sky
  • #382
  • Oct 4, 2017 11:27pm Oct 4, 2017 11:27pm
On Sept 29th, 2017 I took a long trade on the EurCad based on several sources of fundamentals news. First, the Cad GDP report had just been released and it came in as less than expected. Not a huge difference but I also considered that the Canadian dollar was weak in general due to earlier comments by Central Bank of Canada Governor Poloz. Poloz had been more negative than expected regarding Canada's economy and this seemed to be supported by the later GDP report. All of this in consideration of the well supported Euro during previous sessions indicated a strong upward trend for the EurCad. Again, it's old news, I could have held on longer but this is more of something I have to work on psychologically.

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  • #383
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:20pm Oct 5, 2017 12:20pm
Quoting Fader123
Missed the trade on Cable - I don't know how Poor news on May over the weekend - talking about only lasting a year and Bojo getting in is what kicked it off Actually thought about it last night. Can't really be confident on the pound at the moment. May be a pullback to a pivot level tomorrow and then some more poor sentiment On the EURUSD trade - perhaps I should of got out on S2, but it looked a decent level to me. Went for it a bit on that one. {image}
Think that this sentiment on Cable has another couple of days. Party conferences are really decent trading opportunities. Geopolitical uncertainty nearly always beats anything else. I think there was a rousing speech last year and the move lasted about 4 days I think or it could have been the year before. Really should of flagged it more.
Also the pullback yesterday was so weak.
Mind you dollar is so strong at the moment
McAffterty's speech-perhaps not as hawkish.
I see that BOA Merill Lynch think that the BOE won't hike.
But at some point this will calm down and traders will look at something else and the economic indicators will turn.
  • #384
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:34am Oct 6, 2017 1:34am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Think that this sentiment on Cable has another couple of days. Party conferences are really decent trading opportunities. Geopolitical uncertainty nearly always beats anything else. I think there was a rousing speech last year and the move lasted about 4 days I think or it could have been the year before. Really should of flagged it more. Also the pullback yesterday was so weak. Mind you dollar is so strong at the moment McAffterty's speech-perhaps not as hawkish. I see that BOA Merill Lynch think that the BOE won't hike. But at some point...
Cable off on the overnight session. Dollar strong against everything.

NFP today. Obviously the hurricane has had an effect on numbers

Also I read that Trump is planning a storm -no idea what it is
  • #385
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:55am Oct 6, 2017 1:55am
Any advice for someone who bought CAD/CHF at 0.78073?

Thanks.
  • #386
  • Oct 6, 2017 6:50am Oct 6, 2017 6:50am
Quoting MoneyFocus
Any advice for someone who bought CAD/CHF at 0.78073? Thanks.
CAD
GDP missed, on a downtrend. This was the one thing Poloz was looking at.
CPI also missed
Poloz turning dovish
He must feel a bit of an idiot for hiking so soon
Think oil prices wont go much higher unless there is another event (Venezuala?).
Trump planning on doing something. This would affect this pair if the market went risk off
I would not be long at the moment
  • #387
  • Oct 6, 2017 7:50am Oct 6, 2017 7:50am
So just after NFP, Forex Factory said "

  1. Our analysis suggests that the net effect of these hurricanes was to reduce the estimate of total nonfarm payroll employment for September. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate.

what's the difference between non-farm unemployment and national employment? I'm assuming just farm employment?

  • #388
  • Oct 9, 2017 2:06pm Oct 9, 2017 2:06pm
Recent talk of the town is that RBA rate hike is a much more unrealistic now and there is increasing likelihood the RBA could even still cut instead of hike.
Apparently a few banks (JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, ANZ) are bearish on the Aussie economy. JPMorgan thinks we might get a cut instead of a hike. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/a...recast-2017-10
Professor Harper of the RBA mentioned the possibility of such action last week.

RBA assistant Governor Debelle speaks in few hours. We can't expect a sudden end of the dovish rhetoric, can we?
  • #389
  • Edited 4:05pm Oct 9, 2017 3:42pm | Edited 4:05pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
Recent talk of the town is that RBA rate hike is a much more unrealistic now and there is increasing likelihood the RBA could even still cut instead of hike. Apparently a few banks (JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, ANZ) are bearish on the Aussie economy. JPMorgan thinks we might get a cut instead of a hike. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/a...recast-2017-10 Professor Harper of the RBA mentioned the possibility of such action last week. RBA assistant Governor Debelle speaks in few hours. We can't expect...
Good spot 4rXal-ghul
Does not look good for the Aussie does it.
Low income growth seems to be the main reason.
They seemed to have a grip on house lending. So there is scope
The statement seems to expect more strength
http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-21.html
But as you rightly say Harper has pointed out concerns. I really should have been on this.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...5c8738dbd25991

The only thing that is slightly putting me off - is the forum where Debelle is going to speak.
https://risk.thomsonreuters.com/en/e...mmit-2017.html
  • #390
  • Oct 10, 2017 3:19am Oct 10, 2017 3:19am
Quoting Fader123
...The only thing that is slightly putting me off - is the forum where Debelle is going to speak. https://risk.thomsonreuters.com/en/e...mmit-2017.html
True that. Apparently he didn't mention a thing about monetary policy (I shouldn't have expected him to).

On the AUD, apparently the hedgies knows somethings we definitely do not know. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...long-on-aussie
  • #391
  • Oct 10, 2017 6:58am Oct 10, 2017 6:58am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} True that. Apparently he didn't mention a thing about monetary policy (I shouldn't have expected him to). On the AUD, apparently the hedgies knows somethings we definitely do not know. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...long-on-aussie
Also Trump has reverted to type. And the market was sold off on the Aussie. This was the main thing
Plus perhaps some traders may have viewed the silence of Debelle on monetary policy as meaning no change in interest rate bias.
Nonetheless when GS go long on the Aussie, I take note if it. They made a good call last year on the Aussie.
  • #392
  • Oct 10, 2017 8:24am Oct 10, 2017 8:24am
Nothing beats trading an election!
Thanks @Fader for giving the heads up about 12 October

Been shorting a couple NZD pairs. Gutted I missed a fair good amount of opportunities to get on Aussie/Kiwi long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussiekiwi.png Size: 33 KB


Where was I????!!
  • #393
  • Oct 10, 2017 12:51pm Oct 10, 2017 12:51pm
The amount of stuff I miss -beggars belief.
I am up about 11% on the month.
Just need to have a bit of a think on the New Zealand elections. The best trade will be if he joins Labour.
Here are his policies/views
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.new...nment.amp.html
  • #394
  • Edited 12:06pm Oct 16, 2017 11:28am | Edited 12:06pm
Quick question for fader123. Do you use leverage and if so how much? I've cut back down to a minimum.
  • #395
  • Oct 16, 2017 12:39pm Oct 16, 2017 12:39pm
Quoting jchiogna1
Quick question for fader123. Do you use leverage and if so how much? I've cut back down to a minimum.
I aint fader. Yet very few can trade forex appreciably without leverage...the moves are literally .01 of a cent.

:{
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #396
  • Oct 16, 2017 5:50pm Oct 16, 2017 5:50pm
Quoting jchiogna1
Quick question for fader123. Do you use leverage and if so how much? I've cut back down to a minimum.
Hi -

It depends on my level of confidence in a trade

If a central bank changes in interest rate bias; 10:1 (reason - because its an absolute certainty which way the market is going)
Market sentiment/day trade; 3-5:1
Risk/Reward - Min 3:1
Max capital at risk: 2% per trade
  • #397
  • Oct 19, 2017 7:24am Oct 19, 2017 7:24am
Quoting Fader123
The amount of stuff I miss -beggars belief. I am up about 11% on the month. Just need to have a bit of a think on the New Zealand elections. The best trade will be if he joins Labour. Here are his policies/views https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.new...nment.amp.html

Thank you Winston

Fader123
  • #398
  • Oct 20, 2017 10:44am Oct 20, 2017 10:44am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Thank you Winston Fader123
Congrats on this trade! It is a great example of how figuring out the implication of forming a governing coalition on the markets.

Over the last few month's I have been concentrating on figuring out how to read the tea leaves as related to the impact of gdp, employment, and inflation on interest rate biases and expectations. That has brought me a long way.

Often when I think about the geopolitical events, I tend to focus on the geopolitical surprise. However, your approach really helped me see that there are a number of geopolitical events that we can plan for. Now I can see that in addition to thinking about central banks and monetary policy, I have focus on the potential impacts of geopolitical events on fiscal policy.

Perhaps, as a U.S. citizen, my first step should be getting a better handle on parliamentary, coalition-style governments.

Now that you are in the "Winston" trade, how are you managing it? What are your targets for exiting the trade?

I should note that I got into the Winston trade a bit late. I sold NZDUSD @ .7028...
  • #399
  • Oct 20, 2017 10:48am Oct 20, 2017 10:48am
Fader, as I contribute, I will probably have some questions for you.

In one of your posts you mentioned that you were trained by an institutional trainer. How did that happen? How did you develop that relationship? What was the most important lesson you learned from them?
  • #400
  • Oct 20, 2017 11:18am Oct 20, 2017 11:18am
One of the geopolitical market movers that has drawn attention this week is the seeming imminent pick of a FED chair by President Trump. What do you think the implications of Trumps' pick will be?

I think if Trump picks Powell, Taylor, Warsh, or Cohn, this is going to have short-term positive impact on the USD. I think that the market will read this as a positive sign that Trump is going to role back the Obama regulations on banks. If he picks Taylor that might be the biggest market mover because Taylor favors more aggressive rate hikes.

If he picks Yellen, I think it also has a positive impact because it suggests continuity, and three hikes are on the table for next year. Many commentators think Yellen has a strong chance of being re-appointe, I think because she was chosen by Obama she has zero chance of being selected.

If he picks anyone else, it is dollar negative.

The challenge now is trying to figure out how to structure a trade because we don't know when Trump will announce his decisions.
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