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100 Trades Analysis

  • #481
  • Sep 14, 2017 2:34pm Sep 14, 2017 2:34pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} im just incorporating VWAP some more... its filtering out a lot of trades... and reducing the losses... do some more backtesting and ill see when VWAP below POC price more likely to go down.. and vice versa.... when Average price is below POC on previous day... ill sell POC and higj volume nodes... and vice versa for longs.
something isn't clicking... there is too much confusion going on, when price is above VWAP trend is up yet buying above the VWAP is buying too high? i have the balance of the day and the average of the day in testing atm... VWAP is something needs more reading i think
  • #482
  • Sep 15, 2017 4:33am Sep 15, 2017 4:33am
i told you bithedz would potentially get screwed...
  • #483
  • Sep 15, 2017 5:56am Sep 15, 2017 5:56am
Quoting Don96
i told you bithedz would potentially get screwed...
fine I removed him . problem is he doesn't trade everyday..just kind of letting trades open for days/weeks..not even comparable.

I attached dwe's TE. dude I met up in tampa at FF. decent account size, but pretty conservative

you can't hide the TE now dwe..it's on now
  • #484
  • Sep 15, 2017 6:17am Sep 15, 2017 6:17am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} fine I removed him . problem is he doesn't trade everyday..just kind of letting trades open for days/weeks..not even comparable. I attached dwe's TE. dude I met up in tampa at FF. decent account size, but pretty conservative you can't hide the TE now dwe..it's on now
im still having issues with myFXbook... its saying my account history is missing...

and Dwe don't worry - Hilmy is in $1000 debt

Ps - do you trade MP levels based on previous day or just use developing day and previous day to trade breakouts?

i backtested last month using POC and Average as my triggers and when POC is above Average price i will only sell, and Average above POC i buy... net 15 wins, 60 Trades, 37 Wins, 23 losses all aggressive, no moving stops to b.e

So for Today, EU, Average is above the POC, so only after Longs... i won't get any now (ive been eyeing 1.1982 for a few days as a short... but ill resist it)
  • #485
  • Sep 15, 2017 11:25am Sep 15, 2017 11:25am
Quoting Don96
{quote} im still having issues with myFXbook... its saying my account history is missing... and Dwe don't worry - Hilmy is in $1000 debt Ps - do you trade MP levels based on previous day or just use developing day and previous day to trade breakouts? i backtested last month using POC and Average as my triggers and when POC is above Average price i will only sell, and Average above POC i buy... net 15 wins, 60 Trades, 37 Wins, 23 losses all aggressive, no moving stops to b.e So for Today, EU, Average is above the POC, so only after Longs... i won't...
OOPS... sorry Hilmy ill stop spamming your thread now...
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  • #486
  • Sep 15, 2017 11:43am Sep 15, 2017 11:43am
something else i kind of overseeing. virgin pocs. those virgins are magnets. maybe good targets. right now anything beyond R3/S3 or virgin pocs are good spots for possible tps for trend

more notes!!..the never ending notes....
  • #487
  • Edited 1:38pm Sep 15, 2017 12:32pm | Edited 1:38pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} im still having issues with myFXbook... its saying my account history is missing... and Dwe don't worry - Hilmy is in $1000 debt Ps - do you trade MP levels based on previous day or just use developing day and previous day to trade breakouts? i backtested last month using POC and Average as my triggers and when POC is above Average price i will only sell, and Average above POC i buy... net 15 wins, 60 Trades, 37 Wins, 23 losses all aggressive, no moving stops to b.e So for Today, EU, Average is above the POC, so only after Longs... i won't...
Hey Don,
I like to trade emerging strong/weak pairs (as seen on the 6 JPY, 15 min. chart pairs that I watch.) But I'll trade anything that looks good: News Reversals/Spikes (sometimes scaling in/averaging down like today, on U news on EU, long), ranges, breakouts, buying/selling highs/lows in a trend, position trades from a few hours to a few days, scalping, and sometimes 30 second and 2-minute CCI chart trades on EUR/CAD. It depends a lot on my mood.

My goal is simply to end each day positive, ideally making $500-$2000/day, with no drawdown, for now. My account is my only means of income (and $100k of it is a home-equity loan, on which I pay $300/month, 10 year term/balloon.) I can get by on $1100/month income, and can buy a few beers with $1500/month.
Hope this helps! Happy Weekend.
  • #488
  • Sep 15, 2017 1:06pm Sep 15, 2017 1:06pm
Quoting dwe213
{quote} Hey Don, I like to trade emerging strong/weak pairs (as seen on the 6 JPY, 15 min. chart pairs that I watch.) But I'll trade anything that looks good: News Reversals/Spikes (sometimes scaling in/averaging down like today, on U news on EU, long), ranges, breakouts, buying/selling highs/lows in a trend, position trades from a few hours to a few days, scalping, and sometimes 30 second and 2-minute CCI chart trades on EUR/CAD. It depends a lot on my mood. My goal is simply to end each day positive, ideally making $500-$2000/day, with...
I love your lender borrow 100k pay 3600 a year for 10 years (36000) and you get to keep 64000 of their money where do I sign up
  • #489
  • Sep 15, 2017 1:13pm Sep 15, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} I love your lender borrow 100k pay 3600 a year for 10 years (36000) and you get to keep 64000 of their money where do I sign up
huh that is weird.. what kind of enron accounting is this dwe...
  • #490
  • Sep 15, 2017 1:38pm Sep 15, 2017 1:38pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} huh that is weird.. what kind of enron accounting is this dwe...
Sorry, dudes, the deal is not quite that good--there's a balloon payment due on the balance within 10 years.
  • #491
  • Sep 15, 2017 3:08pm Sep 15, 2017 3:08pm
ok based on this week, the updates are:

1)normal days fade/breakout combo

2)vpocs as potential maximum range for breakout (added today)

will reset next week to see how test #4 with these changes goes. test will keep resetting as i add more rules to current structures. but i feel like i'm getting close to finalizing the strategy with profiles..
  • #492
  • Sep 15, 2017 5:10pm Sep 15, 2017 5:10pm
Quoting hilmy83
ok based on this week, the updates are: 1)normal days fade/breakout combo 2)vpocs as potential maximum range for breakout (added today) will reset next week to see how test #4 with these changes goes. test will keep resetting as i add more rules to current structures. but i feel like i'm getting close to finalizing the strategy with profiles..
ever thought to control the POC at levels of rejection for a quick scalp? or you prefer to hold trades for better RR?
  • #493
  • Sep 15, 2017 6:32pm Sep 15, 2017 6:32pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ever thought to control the POC at levels of rejection for a quick scalp? or you prefer to hold trades for better RR?
i do have rules with fading towards POC. hence the first short i had today. the breakout happened and it reached a vpoc from 9/13. unfortunately i didn't take profit from my breakout there..hence the rule with vpoc added.
  • #494
  • Sep 16, 2017 10:03am Sep 16, 2017 10:03am
One of the ways i have had success with VWAP is to never trade against the trending VWAP. I trade very small time frame based off 2 tick charts. but when I am feeling cocky and I take trades against a rising or fallingVWAP I always get fucked.

Acts also as a good s or r especially when market gets out of balance

trading when market is in balance, well i try to stay away from those



Quoting Don96
{quote} im just incorporating VWAP some more... its filtering out a lot of trades... and reducing the losses... do some more backtesting and ill see when VWAP below POC price more likely to go down.. and vice versa.... when Average price is below POC on previous day... ill sell POC and higj volume nodes... and vice versa for longs.
Its all in the mind.
  • #495
  • Sep 16, 2017 10:07am Sep 16, 2017 10:07am
Quoting Divergence
Yes I use the levels with price structure to get in trades. It's very tough trading mp or volume when it relates to forex as you said it's all artificial
you could use time based TPO in forex, basic concept it same (almost). as a retail trader you wanna stay away from markets in balance, opportunity is when it gets imbalanced.
Its all in the mind.
  • #496
  • Sep 16, 2017 11:26am Sep 16, 2017 11:26am
Quoting 5abi
{quote} you could use time based TPO in forex, basic concept it same (almost). as a retail trader you wanna stay away from markets in balance, opportunity is when it gets imbalanced.
yeah balance appears to be where my losses come from, ive cleared out on PA to see where entry levels are within the PA, where there is Chop i wont trade, nice rejection levels are better
  • #497
  • Sep 16, 2017 12:54pm Sep 16, 2017 12:54pm
Quoting 5abi
{quote} you could use time based TPO in forex, basic concept it same (almost). as a retail trader you wanna stay away from markets in balance, opportunity is when it gets imbalanced.
i actually finding normal days to be easier to trade. i'm testing on gbpusd/eurusd/audsd/nzdusd and seem to work pretty consistently
  • #498
  • Sep 17, 2017 8:55am Sep 17, 2017 8:55am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Never heard of bithedz until you posted and just looked at his TE down 95% in a month on live account. AND still has 28 open trades with no stop loss. WTF! Noobs subscribe to noobs.
he's made his profit withdrawal. that's the point to begin with. he's trading with house money. how he ends up it's up to debate. you see the current state and already making judgement on how he is as a trader

did you make a profit withdrawal? have a TE we can look at? no? then i suggest you walk into a busy street with your eyes closed..fuck off
  • #499
  • Sep 17, 2017 10:55am Sep 17, 2017 10:55am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} he's made his profit withdrawal. that's the point to begin with. he's trading with house money. how he ends up it's up to debate. you see the current state and already making judgement on how he is as a trader did you make a profit withdrawal? have a TE we can look at? no? then i suggest you walk into a busy street with your eyes closed..fuck off
With due respect,
It is true that he withdrawn more than the deposits he made....like 90k more...
But would that justify to blow up 360k potentially? Is that a good decision?
There is no "house money" if you made a profit it is YOUR money!!
We may be looking at differently, but for me that 360k is more than my total net worth. Thus ever increasingly, I would most certainly want to have some protective measures in, house money or not.
Also probably true that the results in the first place may be reached due excessive risk, so, to say, large losses are just part of the game. Still, capital can make capital, and it is lot easier to recover a 20-30% drawdown, than a 70-90% one. Both money and emotional side.

But I am fully agree with the view that if withdrawal bigger than deposit, then whatever happens is, it is a sort of success!
That said, I think I prefer dwe213's TE as a good example.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #500
  • Sep 17, 2017 11:20am Sep 17, 2017 11:20am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} With due respect, It is true that he withdrawn more than the deposits he made....like 90k more... But would that justify to blow up 360k potentially? Is that a good decision? There is no "house money" if you made a profit it is YOUR money!! We may be looking at differently, but for me that 360k is more than my total net worth. Thus ever increasingly, I would most certainly want to have some protective measures in, house money or not. Also probably true that the results in the first place may be reached due excessive risk, so, to say, large...
there are two things that i care about when it comes to trading

1. Not blow up (not the same as high DD, we're talking not able to trade anymore)

2.To be NET profitable (withdrawal of deposit+profits). First and foremost goal for me which i have done.

3, consistently make profit going forward (need a lot of work in this area personally). basically i'm in a limbo in my trading career..not yet consistent..but net profitable.

If bithedz let go of these trades and his account goes to ZERO, THEN i'd say, he might be a retard. Because at that point, you're out of the game. i personally able to take large losses, just to make sure i still got some equity left to trade to recover. and i have done multiple recoveries.

DD is sensitive topic around here, but safe to say that if you still have an account, you still able to recover. period.

bithedz's current DD doesn't give enough information about how he will end up. he's gotten big DD before and look at where he is now? lucky maybe? who cares. he's profitable right now and probably just managing his trades.

let me open up this question? if you had 30-40% DD right now, does it affect your ability to trade going forward? take the emotion out of it, i'm saying does it change the dynamics of your trading at all? if you can make money going forward and you have an edge, that DD means nothing. Unless you manage OPMs. But that's the problem i have with this discussion..people putting their "hedge fund manager" hat on and try to talk to street fighter traders like myself about risk management.

it's about profit at the end of the day..How you get there is irrelevant to me
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