long at 073
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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #31,547
- Edited 3:42pm Sep 13, 2017 3:22pm | Edited 3:42pm
- | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts
Trade 20 of 20 (13 Sept 2017)
USDJPY short
58 tick chart
Expectation:
Debatable I think.
Short-medium term bulls were slowing down (smaller projection, deeper retraces)
There was an expectation failure in the short term OF (indicated)
Then there was an expectation failure OR retest of the bigger swing (yellow line)
Although the bear swings 1-2-3 (indicated) got weaker and weaker, they brought price all the way down to the point of retest/NSL/
I thought we would go for a deep correction and then a NSL
Strength assessment:
Bear swing 3 weak (impulse, depth, projection)
Bull swings pretty strong, but I interpreted it as the last attempt of the bulls to get price higher.
In hindsight, I was wrong and there were signs that the trade would not make it.
Strength of entry signal:
FIB: went short after 61.8% of correction of the short term swing (yellow line) at about 50% level
STRUCTURE: good structure to the left (last LH as indicated in blue circle)
HARMONIC: no harmonic confluence identified
--> SOS2 (minimum SOS2 required according to trading plan)
Rotation candle:
Nice clean rotation candle to the downside
Trade management:
SL placement a little difficult. I put it above the indicated swing, that was the safest place but also the highest risk. I considered placing it above the blue indicated resistance zone, which was also above the golden zone. But as long as it is placed within the swing, there is higher probability of the SL being hit. And I certainly want to avoid the SL being hit by 1 pip before price continues. So I placed the SL above the swing.
Profit target where I would have at least a 1:1 R:R (indicated). With a very slight NSL that target would be met.
Went to BE a little bit before I would usually go to BE, because of the possibility that I misread PA. I was having some second thoughts about the trade. But I gave the trade enough room to get to the indicated support zone. At the touch of that support zone I went to BE, thinking it would not be normal for the bears to allow a retrace that deep, if the bears meant business, they would not allow it.
Price came back and took the stop.
I was ok with the outcome, it was not the best trade. And looking at it in hindsight, price went up and would have taken the initial SL too, causing a full loss.
Summary:
Risk: -30 euro
Initial profit target: +30 euro (at least 1:1 R:R)
Actual profit: +3 euro (stop at BE)
USDJPY short
58 tick chart
Expectation:
Debatable I think.
Short-medium term bulls were slowing down (smaller projection, deeper retraces)
There was an expectation failure in the short term OF (indicated)
Then there was an expectation failure OR retest of the bigger swing (yellow line)
Although the bear swings 1-2-3 (indicated) got weaker and weaker, they brought price all the way down to the point of retest/NSL/
I thought we would go for a deep correction and then a NSL
Strength assessment:
Bear swing 3 weak (impulse, depth, projection)
Bull swings pretty strong, but I interpreted it as the last attempt of the bulls to get price higher.
In hindsight, I was wrong and there were signs that the trade would not make it.
Strength of entry signal:
FIB: went short after 61.8% of correction of the short term swing (yellow line) at about 50% level
STRUCTURE: good structure to the left (last LH as indicated in blue circle)
HARMONIC: no harmonic confluence identified
--> SOS2 (minimum SOS2 required according to trading plan)
Rotation candle:
Nice clean rotation candle to the downside
Trade management:
SL placement a little difficult. I put it above the indicated swing, that was the safest place but also the highest risk. I considered placing it above the blue indicated resistance zone, which was also above the golden zone. But as long as it is placed within the swing, there is higher probability of the SL being hit. And I certainly want to avoid the SL being hit by 1 pip before price continues. So I placed the SL above the swing.
Profit target where I would have at least a 1:1 R:R (indicated). With a very slight NSL that target would be met.
Went to BE a little bit before I would usually go to BE, because of the possibility that I misread PA. I was having some second thoughts about the trade. But I gave the trade enough room to get to the indicated support zone. At the touch of that support zone I went to BE, thinking it would not be normal for the bears to allow a retrace that deep, if the bears meant business, they would not allow it.
Price came back and took the stop.
I was ok with the outcome, it was not the best trade. And looking at it in hindsight, price went up and would have taken the initial SL too, causing a full loss.
Summary:
Risk: -30 euro
Initial profit target: +30 euro (at least 1:1 R:R)
Actual profit: +3 euro (stop at BE)
- #31,548
- Edited 4:12pm Sep 13, 2017 3:57pm | Edited 4:12pm
- | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts
...Going to trade an account of 1,000 euros. Will be trading USDJPY mainly. Maximum risk per trade will be between 20-30 euros (2-3% of account). Doing 20 trades, strictly following trading rules (at least that's the plan). I will post every trade and see what the outcome will be in the end. ...
20 Trades in exactly two weeks.
Made 91.21 Euro gross profit
Minus 22.86 Euro costs
Net profit of 68.35 Euro ; 6.8% of account in two weeks
It's a start
Overall I'm pretty happy with how I traded. Followed my rules with very few exceptions.
Managed to keep emotions under control.
Now I can focus on improving the gains where possible.
One thing is for sure: this broker is sucking me dry. Bad spread and high commissions.
Will change broker to have lower costs.
EDIT:
Small confession of slip up during the 20 trades:
There was a large gap after the weekend on September 3rd.
I had a little peak of excitement and entered long to trade the gap close.
A little later I realized that I was failing to trade according to my trading plan.
I exited the trade and got out at BE.
I ignored and denied this trade had ever existed.
But I'm confessing it now.
It's not in the list of results.
If it was a large loss I would have included it.
But it was a BE so I discarded it.
There, now my soul is clean.
- #31,552
- Sep 14, 2017 2:22am Sep 14, 2017 2:22am
- | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts
Amazing results Peter! Which forex broker allow to trade with Ninja at such small lot size? I'm interested too.
Super results Peter. The next step is to increase the R:R somehow .... always the bloody problem isnt it
Thanks for sharing Peter - great result. As someone else said improving RR would be good.
Also I'm aware that this is just a small sample of trades. I may lose it all in the next 20 trades.
But it's good to start like this
@Lithium1
I'm not trading in Ninjatrader. I display and edit charts in NT, and take trades in MT4.
My current broker is Forex.ee but I already have another account ready for use with another broker.
It's all temporary. I'm currently also testing a few other trading platforms in demo.
@latencytradr @bartlby37
Yes increasing R:R is a possibility. I have to see if there is a way that I would feel comfortable with. I don't have the steel nerves (or confidence) yet to wait for more than 1 swing I think.
- #31,557
- Sep 14, 2017 7:31am Sep 14, 2017 7:31am
{quote} {quote} {quote} Thanks guys! Don't know what the average profit percentage should/could be. Also I'm aware that this is just a small sample of trades. I may lose it all in the next 20 trades. But it's good to start like this
If you can get a return of 1euro for each euro of initial risk the average equity after 200 trades with a 70% win rate is 5052 euros with an average drawdown of 13%. With the 1 to 1 RR all of the 200 runs of 200 trades ended in profit.
- #31,558
- Sep 14, 2017 7:39am Sep 14, 2017 7:39am
- | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts
USDJPY Short
58 tick chart
Was actually trading immediate OF, strengthening to the downside.
Price took a dive. I protected to BE.
I thought I'd wait for the news, maybe it would drive price even lower.
And if not, I would be taken out at BE.
Turns out I get filled 14 pips higher.
So a loss of -10 euro.
I guess lesson learned?
Bad fill is normal during news events?
Or is this because of my broker?
Thanks for feedback!
58 tick chart
Was actually trading immediate OF, strengthening to the downside.
Price took a dive. I protected to BE.
I thought I'd wait for the news, maybe it would drive price even lower.
And if not, I would be taken out at BE.
Turns out I get filled 14 pips higher.
So a loss of -10 euro.
I guess lesson learned?
Bad fill is normal during news events?
Or is this because of my broker?
Thanks for feedback!