AUD/USD

Update :

looks bullish with it trading above 0.801

Unless scalping I wouldn't be lookin to long aat the moment m

my chart for the near term

buy from 0.801 with TP near 0.812 or above

i look it differently, if daily closed below .8040 i will short, if daily closed above .8050 i will buy.....
imho, dont think it is a good area to buy....... unless if au moved like crazy like during 2009-2010 which i doubt....

May be you are both correct. There is room to get some pips on a long trade, check the W1 tf looking left. However, this is not a particularly safe thing to do because there's a strong resistance area there.

KP

Looks like a nice hirami candle forming on AU daily. May be some good short opportunities during more liquid trading hours.

AUD @.8030

Apparently there is good demand for the AUD by local exporters.
Past experience tells me we are nearing the top

AUD @ .8004


Well the arse has fallen out of business confidence.

Im not surprised ... Australia has been in an economic death spiral for ages.

Lets see how this plays out whether they just shrug off the news like they have done with all the other bad numbers and treat it like there is nothing wrong .

Local exporters will slow the fall..

Next Potential Move.

4hr chart

Dollar is so week these days I am doubting to go short again.

i had some very good shorts... i closed them before Asia last night and 3/7 would have hit tp at +100... NU rose 110 during Asia and AU didnt make such an impact... that tells me its more bearish than bullish... daily says its retracing quite a bit... perhaps i should have closed half of my positions rather than all... oh well

Nice move down to .7975

Been debating if I should close my positions.

The Australian employment change numbers seem a bit manipulated to me with 54.2k new jobs created in August! The USA only added 209k in July.

Consider the population differential: USA - 323,995,528 (July 2016 est.) vs Australia - 22,992,654 (July 2016 est.)

Consider the average individual income differential: USA - USD44,148/year (https://www.thebalance.com/average-s...orkers-2060808) vs Australia - AUD80,236 (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6302.0)

Not sure why all those stores are closing the the Melbourne CBD, apparently the Australian economy is on a rip! Anyway, I suppose as traders we just need to surf the wave, and treat the breadcrumbs they throw out in the news as signals of the market maker intent.

If based on your analysis , it more likely to be a bull trap

Looking at the data unemployed only fell by 2200 people. Seems to be more people moving to Full time from Part time (underemployment fell) and more people participating in the survey. Smoke and Mirrors. I just wish they find out what industry the people got jobs, I'd bet most are mining.

Uptrendline intact.

Daily Chart

got lucky on news 22 pips

Mccc: It may well be a bear trap, as the China data seems to have quenched some of the exaggerated spike, but I will reserve judgement until the London session.

RedAlert: The quality of the Australian employment data would be useful, but it is probably not in the interest of the RBA to supply this information. If you were to sign-up as an UBEReats driver, you would technically qualify as fully employed.

I am an engineer doing intermittent contract work in the Australian mining sector, and I can confirm that it is anything but buoyant. An interesting perspective on the Chinese growth is presented in the Bloomberg story today (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nvestment-slow). The take away for the Australian mining prospects is the low growth in the Chinese metal industries over many months. The big miners have hedged the physical metal and the commodity price rises are mainly paper trades.

OK Shop: I lost the same 22 pips from my profitable up until the news short!