AUD/USD

It's happening.

Stopped out @ BE, back in short @ 8095, SL @ 8110, TP @ 7640

Likewise. Added more shorts here at 8095.
My SL @ 8110 as well.
Let's see.

Yuan is at 6.4x

And USDCAD is usually inverse AUDUSD

Stopped out @ BE, back in short @ 8013, SL @ 8028, TP @ 7640

Despite the reasonably hawkish commentary from Dudley Williams (NY Fed) and unusually hawkish position of Esther George (KC Fed), the USD continues to be crushed. The gravity defying antics of the AUDUSD pair appears to be difficult to justify given some of the fundamental information posted on this forum.

While the bullish performance is perplexing to some, it appears ArslanHyder was able to correctly predict the end game and hold the line even while a few commentators noted their misgivings on his timing and risk management style.

SocGen and Commerzbank justify their bullish view to 0.84 too.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/au...ciete-generale

panic buying. It will go down 30-40 pips in the next 8 hours

Sometimes I feel like my forex trading exploits are like being a chicken pecking at seeds through the gaps in an electric fence, I respect accuracy when I see it because I know the pain of misjudgment intimately.

Not everyone is perfect in the trading market. It's not the end of the world if one gets stopped out. What is most important is risk management.

Not sure about your objective promoting another member here... your point is?

It's not about accuracy in trading, it's more about how you trade your money. Being profitable is not the same as being right.

I agree with both of your points, it is not my objective to promote anyone. This forex pair has been my nemesis, with an annoyingly bullish bias. I was just noting the tenacity with which he held to his thesis and the result, by contrast I held an opposing view for much of the same time frame. I will not raise the topic again.

To be fair, calling for 81,82, and even 83 in a few days time over 5 weeks ago only to have price plummet to 7800 is hardly a correct prediction. Especially when your letting your position get to -40% of your account to eventually only win 10%.

It's known as gambling and not taking responsibility for your losses. At all costs never close your losing trade no matter what because its all about having a sexy trade explorer and a red diamond. We've seen this story before and we know the ending. The worst thing that can happen to a trader is to be bailed out of a horrific position. It only prolongs the inevitable.

And actually Nostradamus didn't "hold the line" he actually bailed out long before 81 for fear that price might move back down and ruin that sexy trade explorer. He's a young kid filled pride. We've all been there before. And like most, he'll have to learn the hard way.

As far as this 'confusing" bullish move, not all that confusing. Market makers, banks, institutions need all shorts to be thoroughly washed out before they start building their short positions.

Strength in commodity prices across the board helps get the bulls on board. Negative US sentiment is lingering in the air. And the latest unemployment claims super miss is being used as one last bullet to stop out all the small money shorts. The astute fundamental analysts know the unemployment claims number is meaningless. With some of it attributed to the Texas disaster. In addition, if you read the report you see that the California claims were "estimated". That should give you an error factor of +/- 100%. Heck, no one even knows for sure how many people live in California. Between illegals and governmental corruption, any data from that state is useless.

Technically, daily divergence is building, it's only a matter of time before the correction starts. It may need a fundamental trigger, but it will happen sooner or later. The wise trader will build their position patiently with small positions making sure they have plenty of capital reserve to withstand any more short term bullish push.

Tax reform could be the ace in the hole for the bears. If Trump et al can get it passed, that would be a huge shot in the arm for the dollar. Instantly, American's spending power would increase which theoretically would help bolster inflation

Rant over, safe trading.

PS. I'm currently building a USD/CAD long position from 120.7 down to 119.70. This morning's CAD employment numbers will likely set the tone for next week.

fair enough, he hasn't sure as well with his calls bcs he closed most of the long on .8015.....lol...
basically i don't like people who :

a. before news 1: made a call
b. after the news 1 (wrong call): **silence**
c. before news 2: made another call
d. after news 2 (correct call): immediately boasting in the forum how correct is he
e. before news 3: made another call
f. after news 3 (wrong call): **silence**
g. and so on and so on......

anyway, AU for me no longer short in the short term, need to watch us index carefully....

AUDUSD is clearly bullish. On Weekly graphics we are above MM 20 50 & 100.
This night (Europe) we have broken the 0,8000 resistance.
Next resistance is 0,8600.
Will do the biggest Home run I ever did!
Now it is time to be patient...

There are some pretty heavy volumes around 8055-8060 on the aud. this is definitelly a strong support. I will be planning my long trades from there. What do you guys think?

I wonder if daily will close below 0.8060 - anywhere near 0.8045 would be nice

pretty much possible, but i dont think will far from 0.8060.......... 0.8045 is too far for au i dont think it will reach there.

plan for next week, i will short if daily closed below .8040

It's like 15 pip from where we are now

yep depending on the mood, sometimes difficult for AU even to move 10 pips :-( and 8060 is support now, dont think any power left in the market that can break down now, but gap opening can be there...

I am overwhelmed by the stubbornness of shorties...but god bless you!
Since what? 6 months ago? this is in an up trend with sometimes somehow decent corrections down (when it touched briefly 78).

This pair is going up. Hope you all make money

cheers