AUD/USD

The better rr at thus price is short... so get clued up before being naive and thinking it's going up forever without retrace

OK lads - calls for the week?

Crazy week last week. I am calling more upside for the Aussie.

i'm buying

Entering long @8045, SL @8025, TP @8085

Price bounce off weekly pivot, 61.8FIB, and a TDI cross with hidden divergence on the hourly.

Are you still running this trade? Stopped out @ BE, back in short @ 8013, SL @ 8028, TP @ 7640

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-us...n-201709110050

The AUD/USD is not particularly impressed by North Korea inaction over the weekend and an uptick in Chinese inflation, forcing us to question whether the range bound Aussie-US 10-year yield spread is playing the spoil sport.

Currently, the pair is trading largely unchanged at 0.8050 levels. It clocked a two-year high of 0.8125 on Friday as USD sell-off gathered steam on fears North Korea may fire another missile over the weekend.

Moreover, risk aversion has taken a back seat this Monday morning after North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un decided to hold a party over the weekend rather than launch another missile. However, it is the USD, which is benefiting the most from the temporary respite.

China reported a better-than-expected CPI and PPI numbers on Saturday. The producer price index (PPI) rose 6.3% from 5.5% in July. The actual number beat the estimate of 5.6%. The uptick in PPI is reflationary for the global economy, however, Aussie still remains flat lined.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/t...s-slide-2017-9

Having hit .8124 in Asia, fuelled by another bout of broad-based US dollar weakness that was sparked by a surge in the Chinese yuan, the AUD/USD slid in European and US trade, eventually closing the session at .8058.

The sharp reversal coincided with renewed weakness in commodity prices which fell heavily in China and London.

“Base metal prices slumped by up to 4.7% on the London Metal Exchange on Friday with nickel leading the declines. But aluminium fell just 0.5% with tin down 1%,” said Gareth Aird, senior economist at the Commonwealth Bank.

“Over the week all metals fell with lead down 5.7% and zinc down 4.9%.”

Iron ore and rebar futures in China also slumped, contributing to the Aussie’s reversal during the session. Iron ore is Australia’s largest goods export by dollar value.

https://www.efxnews.com/story/36959/...s-trade-nordea

Nordea FX Strategy Research argues that an observation from historical patterns suggest that we should be warming up for a tightening of the stance from RBA.

"It is not rare to see RBA move in the aftermath of a turn from the Bank of Canada. Based on data from the last 40 years, RBA moves roughly 2-3 months after BoC on average. With recent solid employment signals from Australia, it could be time for the market to price RBA more aggressively for Q1-2018.

And as long as industrial metals see trend-wise tailwinds, AUD should be underpinned. Thus far AUD/USD has been undershooting the recent pick-up in industrial metals. At the moment we consider long AUD/JPY as the perfect “no nuclear wasteland” trade.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/austr...082255530.html

The Australian dollar finished the previous week off strongly against its US counterpart sitting at a 2 year high US8055c, which is making the RBA sit up and take notice, and if the currency goes much higher they may have no choice but to act.

In their latest interest rate decision on Tuesday, the RBA kept rates on hold at 1.5 percentwhich had been widely anticipated by the market so all ears were on the following statement from RBA governor Philip Lowe.

“The recent data have been consistent with the bank’s expectation that growth in the Australian economy will gradually pick up over the coming year,” Mr Lowe noted in his following monetary speech.

It seems as if the central bank governor is deluding himself because if we look at the statistics, inflation in Australia is currently running at 1.8 percent which is below the central bank’s target rate and a mile away from the upper level of the target inflation level of 3 percent.

At such levels, the Aussie dollar is beginning to have a detrimental effect on the export industry with further damage likely should the currency push any higher.
“Housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are signs that conditions are easing, especially in Sydney,” Mr Lowe also noted.
At least there was a bit of honesty here, the housing market in Australia is definitely cooling off which is good for the RBA because instead of lifting interest rates, they may, in fact, be able to cut them since the rise of the property market is not such a concern now.

With the Aussie dollar at such a high level supported by better than average interest rates in Australia compared to the rest of the world, as well as surging commodity prices the RBA needs to act.

Whichever way you look at it the only way the RBA is going to stop the rise of the Australian dollar is by cutting interest rates, which just may help push inflation into their target range and help bring the Australia dollar back down to a comfortable level.

No. Stopped out at -15

Longer term my bias is still short but in the meantime I have no problem trying to harvest pips if I see a good intraday set up that fits one of my strategies.

Cheers and safe trading

where is the support...the good, premium support...lots of levels to choose from...

8004 seems like a good spot, but perhaps too obvious..something sneakier would be better..

7972 looks decent, I'll try some longs there....

I'm confused, how did you short at 8013, lowest FF chart is showing for the day is 8033?

This was a trade from last week

8020 is a good looking spot, but too close for today....I'll stick with 7967...

but then surely he got stopped out last week and there was no apparent reason to post it today??

I was asking if he was still in the trade....also I think the real trade was short @ 8113, SL @ 8128, TP @ 7640, given when it was posted. Aussie never got to 0.8128.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-1...ia-ubs/8892030

oh dear ...

Bubbles. Bubbles everywhere.