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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #5,001
  • Sep 6, 2017 3:18pm Sep 6, 2017 3:18pm
Quoting RisingSun
{quote} Which pair(s) do you people trade today on this news? The following charts are for the same news last month. There is a good clue in the chart if you look at them carefully in order to successfully make your MANUAL entry a few seconds before and ride on the spike. If you like, post your choice and the reason why. Needless to say, you must protect with a stoploss EA for 10 to 15 pips and use the Wheelbarrel trailing EA to catch the most of the spike. {image}


i only see that everything spiked down , so what is the real reason just explain it here dont start to get fishy
  • #5,002
  • Sep 6, 2017 3:29pm Sep 6, 2017 3:29pm
Quoting dorst
{quote} i only see that everything spiked down , so what is the real reason just explain it here dont start to get fishy
I believe the big monies have earlier ideas about the news (direction) and the last min bars should reflect their minds. I intensively watch the -1 bar, the PA within that bar and decide. It's purely subjective. In case of a failure, SL will save you. It's as simple as that.
  • #5,003
  • Sep 6, 2017 4:49pm Sep 6, 2017 4:49pm
Quoting RisingSun
{quote} I believe the big monies have earlier ideas about the news (direction) and the last min bars should reflect their minds. I intensively watch the -1 bar, the PA within that bar and decide. It's purely subjective. In case of a failure, SL will save you. It's as simple as that.

what for kind of things exact you looking for in that last bar ? much volume ticks what kind of pattern ?
  • #5,004
  • Sep 6, 2017 5:17pm Sep 6, 2017 5:17pm
Quoting dorst
{quote} what for kind of things exact you looking for in that last bar ? much volume ticks what kind of pattern ?
PA=price action, not pattern. sorry for confusion. My method hasn't been tested for weeks/months yet. I may come up with something explainable but not yet.
Why not try it for yourself. You may discover faster.
  • #5,005
  • Sep 6, 2017 9:45pm Sep 6, 2017 9:45pm
Anyone who is trading on News, I would like to see any good strategy to find the news movement. Thanks.
  • #5,006
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:07am Sep 7, 2017 10:07am
Attached Image
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #5,007
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:19am Sep 7, 2017 10:19am
Quoting RisingSun
{quote} I believe the big monies have earlier ideas about the news (direction) and the last min bars should reflect their minds. I intensively watch the -1 bar, the PA within that bar and decide. It's purely subjective. In case of a failure, SL will save you. It's as simple as that.
1. No, the last 1m bar before news shall not reflect their (big money) ideas. Look at 100 last big news events in any currency. There is no consistency there. In fact price very often (maybe more then very often) in the last 1m chart will go exactly in the opposite direction to the move later. And that is exactly the worse time to enter. You do your own charts investigation.

2. Then you have increased spread with most retail broker. The last BoC event would make 20-30p spread for most retail brokers and in some cases 100p spread and in some cases no entry at all due to "platform freeze"

3. Often stop loss will not save you, unless you have very big stop (and what is the point on entering at news then) or you mean stop loss triggered at 2x 3x 5x times of intended value. It will happen, either due to spread or lack of matching orders (whatever because real liquidity issues or your broker cashing in)

4. Finally big money drives the market. They dont have ideas. They execute their plan and you as retail speculator follow on a leash.

5. Simple fact is this: entering right at a second on big news is loosing long term proposition for retail trader.

Have you done it long enough to make opposite claim? Have you done it with consistent, repetitive positive results with big enough positions to be meaningful. If yes, good for you. For most people here it is not a good option. And I don't even get into psychological implications.
  • #5,008
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:21am Sep 7, 2017 10:21am
Quoting Butterscotch
Anyone who is trading on News, I would like to see any good strategy to find the news movement. Thanks.
Yeah, trade reaction, not action. Ever wonder why there is usually a pullback, whatever in price or time?
  • #5,009
  • Sep 7, 2017 1:00pm Sep 7, 2017 1:00pm
Dorst

My advice would be to start with straddle trading on news events that will only go in one direction by 20+ pips (you don't have to worry about which direction). Obtain the Fast Economic News email (its free) if you don't know which those are. Use an autoclicker or place a straddle 1-2 min prior to the event. That is the easiest way to commence news trading.

Determining the direction prior to the news is something vvFish appears to have mastered, however for the times that he is incorrect (and has a losing trade) he also has a scalping strategy that he uses to immediately claw back the losses. So you need two strategies in this case.
  • #5,010
  • Sep 7, 2017 1:22pm Sep 7, 2017 1:22pm
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} Yeah, trade reaction, not action. Ever wonder why there is usually a pullback, whatever in price or time?
jdieieh

Some of us have looked at the last few minutes as a indicator of direction. The hypothesis is that in some countries there is limited provisioning of the news ahead of the official announcement. Of course in some countries there is suspicion of outright leakage prior to the official release (e.g. some of the Australian events). For certain types of releases (e.g. interest rate, nfp) there are tight control over the announcement and you can see that in a clean price movement. So not all news events are "equal".

The price action prior to the news event is demonstrated in a couple of ways, First, in the hours prior to the event, usually as sentiment based on expectations (note: big money can push price down based on the expectation that the price will then increase, based on the news). Second, in the minutes prior to the event (e.g. limited pre event release) price will fluctuate, however the open/close on 1 minute candle wont tell you much, because in in this period traders who place big bets are hunting for liquidity, so price can easily spike up when in fact they are hunting for liquidity to sell. In some cases the last 1-2 minutes will reveal a pin bar which is usually a good indicator.

But as you say - it is not an exact science.
  • #5,011
  • Sep 8, 2017 8:00am Sep 8, 2017 8:00am
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #5,012
  • Edited Sep 10, 2017 1:07pm Sep 9, 2017 9:12pm | Edited Sep 10, 2017 1:07pm
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https://www.investing.com/news/econo...alendar-527159
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #5,013
  • Edited 2:38pm Sep 11, 2017 1:17am | Edited 2:38pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"
THE BANK OF CANADA NOT ONLY INCREASED THE RATE, BUT ALSO RESERVED TO ITSELF THE OPPORTUNITY TO DO IT AGAIN

An unexpected increase in the interest rate of the Bank of Canada came as a surprise of this week. This surprise is not only “weekly”, but also easily seems like the “event of the year”. Mario Draghi also noted, not keeping his promise - the discussion of the reduction of QE in September did not take place and it was postponed to October. The dollar remained subject to a “weather forecast”, then to a “political talk show.”

FED: WE HAD A PLAN AND WE STICK TO IT

Representatives of the Fed continue to doubt the achievement of the target level by the inflation in the near future. It should be recalled that earlier the consumer price index fell in spite of the Fed's expectations, which provoked doubt in the market in relation to the third interest rate increase by the end of this year.
The weather conditions (hurricanes Harvey and Irma), as well as the sick head of Kim Jong Un, did their part, and the dollar gradually lost its positions this week.
If in July, according to the futures contracts from the CME Group, the probability of a rate increase in December was about 45%, then, at the moment, the chance of an increase is 31%.
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The FOMC meeting will be held on September 20, and after that, we will receive additional information about the moods within the FOMC. For the time being, the dollar remains in the political arena, and the inflation statistics will appear the next week.

A SMALL NOTE ON THE SWISS FRANC

On Thursday, September 14, SNB meetings will be held. Please pay attention to this period, because at this moment there may be additional volatility not only in pairs with CHF, but also with EUR.

LACK OF NEWS - FOR THE GOOD OF POUND

GBPUSD rose by “about” 250 points this week, which is probably the greater merit of the dollar, as well as of the speculation rather than the reality of things. “No bad news is good news.” So, the pound showed stable statistics on the growth of industrial production, and the Service PMI index remains at its position of 53.2.
But already from Tuesday, GBP will begin to receive its portion of gruel.
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MARIO DRAGHI, TRADITIONALLY ON HIS WAY

Mario Draghi did not talk about the QE reduction, which was so expected by market participants (he promised it himself), which supported the euro after the ECB’s meeting and the press conference of the Bank's Chairman this Thursday. Draghi said: economic growth forecasts remain the same, inflationary expectations remain unchanged. Also, at the press conference, attention has been focused on “a strong euro, the growth of which may hamper economic growth in the future.”
Draghi promised to discuss the QE reduction in September, but now he postponed the issue to October. Now the market continues to overheat the euro and it will soon step over the red line.
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BANK OF CANADA SURPRISED WITH THE SECOND INTEREST RATE INCREASED IN A RAW

The bank not only raised the interest rate this Wednesday, surprising many people but also reserved to itself the possibility of a subsequent rate increase this year!
The regulator noted an “unexpectedly strong economic growth in the second quarter of this year.” The Bank's further actions will primarily be predetermined by economic indicators in the future.
Against this background, the Canadian dollar not only grew by more than 200 points in the first minutes after the publication of the meeting’s results, but also continued its growth a day later.
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On Friday, the labor market seems to confirm the optimistic mood of the Bank of Canada and showed a slight increase in the number of employed, as well as a little reduction in unemployment to 6.2% (previously it was 6.3%).
Against this background, CAD will remain significantly sensitive to its statistics in the near future.

THE RBA LEFT THE INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED

The Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged, and the quarterly GDP was published at the forecast level: the Australian economy added 0.8% in the second quarter of 2017. At the same time, the regulator is somewhat concerned about the increase in borrowings, which in turn were stimulated by a low interest rate (there is a hint at its increase). The full RBA minutes will be published only on September 19, and meanwhile, we will observe the release of labor market statistics next week.

IMPORTANT EVENTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK

The pound will have to fill the gap in amounts of its statistics during the new week period, almost every day we will watch for any British release.
Pay attention to almost every day from the calendar of the next week. We should note: the labor market, the Great Britain’s consumer price index, and also the meeting of the Bank of England; special attention should be paid to inflation (CPI) from the United States, as well as the increase in their retail sales.

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #5,014
  • Sep 12, 2017 2:39am Sep 12, 2017 2:39am
SEK Consumer Price Index (MoM)
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  • #5,015
  • Sep 12, 2017 4:58am Sep 12, 2017 4:58am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #5,016
  • Sep 12, 2017 11:42am Sep 12, 2017 11:42am
Quoting RisingSun
SEK Consumer Price Index (MoM) {image}
I got burnt on that trade. The data was negative but people still bought it because apparently the SEK is meant to follow the NOK!!! So it was a lesson learned.
  • #5,017
  • Sep 12, 2017 3:32pm Sep 12, 2017 3:32pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #5,018
  • Sep 13, 2017 3:33am Sep 13, 2017 3:33am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #5,019
  • Sep 13, 2017 3:35am Sep 13, 2017 3:35am
GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.1% 2.3% 2.1%
GBP Claimant Count Change -2.8K 0.8K -4.2K
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% 4.4
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  • #5,020
  • Sep 13, 2017 4:12am Sep 13, 2017 4:12am
Quoting RisingSun
GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% GBP Claimant Count Change -2.8K 0.8K -4.2K GBP Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% 4.4 {image}

Very Good. I know Fish bought this one

I only got 5 pips

Waiting for US PPI to trade Gold mybe get launch
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