Trading Made Simple | Page 4094 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Monitor for 'Trading Made Simple' system 565 replies

Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

Indicators for the 'Trading Made Simple' system 343 replies

MTF Indicators for the 'Trading Made Simple' system 241 replies

Trading Made Simple system follower - Thanks to eelfranz 9 replies

Attachments: Trading Made Simple
Exit Attachments

Trading Made Simple

  • #81,861
  • Edited 5:57pm Sep 8, 2017 5:23pm | Edited 5:57pm
Quoting darko2010
Sorry in advance as it is a rookie question for some, and putting aside Big E's own method, how do you determine that it is time to exit a winning trade?
For daily chart Exit when Heiken Ashi changes colour and also when it approaches S/R level with a sign of reversal or any sign of reversal.
Entry rule as Emmanuel post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post10270472

Hope it helps
  • #81,862
  • Sep 8, 2017 6:04pm Sep 8, 2017 6:04pm
https://uk.investing.com/education/forex-trading-kit

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Vol-4-Introduction_to_Technical_Analysis.pdf   2.9 MB | 756 downloads
  • #81,863
  • Sep 8, 2017 6:52pm Sep 8, 2017 6:52pm
my next week trading analyze for AU, UJ & Ucad.

AU short counter trend. SL above pinbar price was around S/R level, target as market given.
weekly: at dynamic S/R 200ema.
Daily pinbar
h4 closed below 10ema & Tdi crossed.

UJ Short trend continue: Daily price closed below R/S level. SL above R/S level, target as circle around 156-250pips.
TDI daily: Green below Red, below Yellow and 50-level

Ucad Short trend continue(same condition as UJ):
Daily price closed below R/S level and pulled back. SL above R/S level, target as circle around 200pips.
TDI daily: Green below Red, below Yellow and 50-level
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 183 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled1.png Size: 161 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled2.png Size: 154 KB
  • #81,864
  • Sep 8, 2017 9:45pm Sep 8, 2017 9:45pm
Quoting darko2010
Sorry in advance as it is a rookie question for some, and putting aside Big E's own method, how do you determine that it is time to exit a winning trade?
there are different answers to this question: " ...how do you determine that it is time to exit a winning trade?"

first, why did Big E use the TDI as his exit condition when he trade H4?
hist entry was aggressive therefore his exit has to be aggressive too, why?

there are different exit strategies.
this old post 61,385 to read and get some ideas.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...12#post8536512

and this

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...41#post7216141


Quoting pete.alfa
{quote} For daily chart Exit when Heiken Ashi changes colour and also when it approaches S/R level with a sign of reversal or any sign of reversal. Entry rule as Emmanuel post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post10270472 Hope it helps
Note: Big E did not trade D1 but yet he encouraged those with day jobs to trade D1. He only tested trading D1 in July 2011 but he did not post any test results.
We started to test D1 this year and so I shared my entry and exit condition using the APB/HA candle, PAC and TDI. Big E's entry and exit using just the TDI cross will not produce positive results on D1 trading.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #81,865
  • Sep 8, 2017 9:46pm Sep 8, 2017 9:46pm
Here is an old post I made back in 2013 in another thread.

re-post:

More and more I read members posts struggling with their trading. I think we all should look at some perspective of successful trading.

Perspectives for Successful Trading:



It's very important not to be overly engrossed in the mechanics of analysis. Our minds are wired to believe that elaborate analysis should give a "correct" trade setup. However, a winning trader's mindset is such that he's not too concerned about being right about any individual trade. Sophistication often masks the undeniable fact that the future is uncertain, and that all analysis is based on historical data.

As long as your entry rules are unambiguous and do not result in overly high trading frequency, every trade produced by the rules is a valid trade.

The more important message is that a valid trade does not mean a winning trade.

We need rigid and well-defined rules for every trade, while being flexible in our expectations of any one outcome.
A trading method (consisting of its entry, exit and position-sizing rules) can give the trader an edge over the market, but that edge is to be considered "probabilistically". This means that over a sufficiently large sample of trades, the method (if applied consistently) should display a pattern of profitability. However, each outcome is uncertain.

At the micro level, every outcome is uncertain; at the macro level, repeated application of the method (which gives you an edge over the market) should display a pattern of profitability.

How successful we become as traders depends largely on our ability to think in terms of the above. The typical trader is naturally and instinctively driven to do a lot of analysis which fulfils the subconscious need to predict the future of market movements, whether in the short term, medium term or long term. The financial media has conditioned us to believe that predicting the future is necessary to be successful traders. However, the counter-intuitive truth is that we don't need to predict the future at all in order to be winning traders. All forms of analysis are NOT meant to predict the future. Trading analysis and rules are merely meant to systematize our trading decisions, while allowing us to profit from the method's edge by repeatedly applying the trading rules over time.

There are many methods which will give the trader an edge over the long run. However, the typical trader will not be able to benefit from this edge. Why? For the average trader, the tendency is to "pick and choose" from the many methods available.

For example, a trader may be choosing from 3 methods (for most traders, there are many more). Let's say he starts by using Method 1, and gets a couple of winning trades, and once he gets a couple of losing trades from this method (which he is bound to get sooner or later), he will naturally be driven to "try out" Method 2, or Method 3 (and likely many more). It could so happen that once he does that, he gets losing trades from the other methods too. Therefore, many traders spend years "trying out" many strategies, seeking in vain to discover a strategy that they can finally "settle down with".

We need to understand that for any method that works (i.e. that gives you an edge), the distribution of wins and losses is entirely random. This means that we will never know whether a trade will be a winning one or a losing one. Also, among the many reliable methods (each of which gives the trader an edge when applied consistently over time), we will never know at any point in time which method will give a win and which will give a loss. This is why a trader can have many reliable methods and yet end up losing money by habitually switching between them whenever he gets losses. The typical trader simply does not internalise this principle.

A winning trader does not "pick and choose" from many methods based on recent outcomes, because he knows that every outcome is really uncertain, and that we don't need to predict the future to be winning traders.

This is why being a winning trader is NOT about sophisticated market analysis. It can become very simple once we internalise these principles. It can also become very hard if we become overly engrossed in the wide variety of analysis methods available.
Every moment in the market is "unique", i.e. it's never the same as any previous encounter you had with the market, no matter how identical the indicator lines and price action appear to be as compared to that previous encounter. The truth is that every tick in the market is the result of the aggregate impact of trading decisions from millions of market participants. So, even if the chart patterns show something compellingly identical to a previous encounter, you don't expect the same market participants to re-appear at this instant to make the same trading decisions as they did before in order to produce the same market movements. The point is that every individual outcome is uncertain. Ironically, by repeatedly doing trades according to a method that gives an edge, the long-run result shows a pattern of profitability.

It's also very important to realise that you need to be at peace with the method that you use. One may feel confident about a method because of the good back-test results that he sees after doing some simulations. However, he may have a hard time keeping to this method when the drawdowns happen. On the psychological level, acknowledging the drawdowns on a back-test result is very different from experiencing those drawdowns in real time. The back-test results are presented on a chart such that our minds see everything "at one instant"; when reading back-test results, we see the drawdowns and the equity growth on the same chart at the same instant, so that we find the drawdowns psychologically acceptable. We would say, "A temporary 20% drawdown is nothing in the light of the 300% equity growth that happens eventually!" However, in the real-time and trade-by-trade execution of the trading plan, we are forced to experience everything within the confines of time, i.e. we have to sometimes take losses and patiently and confidently tell ourselves that our edge will play out over time. Psychologically, it's a lot harder than reading back-test results. This is why it's so important to be at peace with the trading method, so that you can experience drawdowns and still keep to your trading rules. Once you're at peace with your method, you can think statistically about the distribution of your wins and losses, so that you're not short-sightedly too concerned about any one outcome.

Indeed, taking losing trades is a necessary part of the business of trading. Losses can be considered as the "cost" of your business. Without accepting the necessity of losses, you will always be hesitating whether to take a trade when your trading rules are fulfilled (because every outcome is uncertain, no matter how nicely the rules are met). Once we internalise such a necessity, we will keep following the trading rules without thinking too much about the outcome. Some of the trades taken will be losses, but the losses "pave the way" for the winning trades to come, because our consistent execution of the trading rules will make ourselves "available" for the winning trades as and when they come. (This means that we will be "there" when the wins come, whereas if we're always hesitating, we may not be there when the winning trades come). After a sufficiently large number of trades, the wins will then more than cover the losses.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #81,866
  • Sep 8, 2017 10:11pm Sep 8, 2017 10:11pm
Quoting saad007
GBPUSD trade {image}

I like your chart.

Good trade

Very safe trade when there is volatility seen with the PAC.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #81,867
  • Sep 9, 2017 2:29am Sep 9, 2017 2:29am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Oops forgot to mention the PAC value coding, but I think you know this already and we don't need any custom indicator for PAC. // Get PAC High Low values PAC_Hi_0 = iMA(NULL, 0, 5, 0, MODE_SMMA, PRICE_HIGH, i); PAC_Lo_0 = iMA(NULL, 0, 5, 0, MODE_SMMA, PRICE_LOW, i); PAC_Hi_1 = iMA(NULL, 0, 5, 0, MODE_SMMA, PRICE_HIGH, i+1); PAC_Lo_1 = iMA(NULL, 0, 5, 0, MODE_SMMA, PRICE_LOW, i+1); PAC_Hi_2 = iMA(NULL, 0, 5, 0, MODE_SMMA, PRICE_HIGH, i+2); PAC_Lo_2 = iMA(NULL, 0, 5, 0, MODE_SMMA, PRICE_LOW, i+2);
Dear Emmanuel,
donīt you use a ma_shift of 2 for calculating the PAC?
  • #81,868
  • Sep 9, 2017 8:38am Sep 9, 2017 8:38am
Quoting bob44
https://uk.investing.com/education/forex-trading-kit {image}
Hi bob..
Just had a quick look about your upload (pdf)
So.. what do you think should it help?
Itīs a good overview of the whole stuff.. Fiboīs .. MACD.. patterns.. Parabolic Sar.. and many many more .

-- all the unneccessary stuff what confuses everybody who has no idea how to trade.

Just ask yourself;
Is it neccessary to know all this stuff?

Iīd say: keep it simple and reduce it to the max.

Have a nice weekend
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #81,869
  • Sep 9, 2017 8:43am Sep 9, 2017 8:43am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Oops forgot to mention the PAC value coding, but I think you know this already and we don't need any custom indicator for PAC.
Hi Emmanuel, I have a question about the PAC:
When I add the two moving averages to my HA_APB indicator it appears to be offset by one bar. In the pictures below you can see how it looks on my screen. In the second screen I have corrected the MA by one bar shift. Also, it appears as if the PAC from the HA_APB is a bit narrower. Do you know if this difference is relevant for trading?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pac1.PNG Size: 20 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pac2 shift 1.PNG Size: 21 KB
  • #81,870
  • Sep 9, 2017 11:13am Sep 9, 2017 11:13am
EURGBP weekly:

IB breakout to the downside and TDI green line is showing overbought and consolidation. I believe GBP is still strong and EUR is weak in the coming week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-10_000754.png Size: 30 KB
  • #81,871
  • Sep 9, 2017 11:50am Sep 9, 2017 11:50am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} there are different answers to this question: " ...how do you determine that it is time to exit a winning trade?" first, why did Big E use the TDI as his exit condition when he trade H4? hist entry was aggressive therefore his exit has to be aggressive too, why? there are different exit strategies. this old post 61,385 to read and get some ideas. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...12#post8536512 and this https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...41#post7216141 {quote} Note: Big E did not trade...
Thanks Emmanuel, I was looking for a less generic answer but I guess it is everyone's job to come up with their own answer based their own trading style.
I was on the GBPUSD H1 ride on Friday and realized that I had no reason to get out given the positive configuration but it was also Friday, hence my initial question. As I said, probably an answer that I have to answer myself

Have a nice weekend and thanks for your continued kindness and dedication to other traders
  • #81,872
  • Sep 9, 2017 4:39pm Sep 9, 2017 4:39pm
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} Hi bob.. Just had a quick look about your upload (pdf) So.. what do you think should it help? Itīs a good overview of the whole stuff.. Fiboīs .. MACD.. patterns.. Parabolic Sar.. and many many more . -- all the unneccessary stuff what confuses everybody who has no idea how to trade. Just ask yourself; Is it neccessary to know all this stuff? Iīd say: keep it simple and reduce it to the max. Have a nice weekend Guido
I partially agree with you, that it is confusing , But the TDI is based on the RSI and the Bollinger . I cannot get my head around the Eliot wave theory So any new member will appreciate Trading Made Simple which does work. But remember Knowledge Dispels Fear.
Apart from that the web pages https://uk.investing.com/currencies/...cy-cross-rates give a good idea on movement. Go onto the page , select Forex Majors from the sub menu select Technical this shows how the technical indicators stack up. Click onto a currency pair showing all buy or all sell . xample
AUS CAD select Technical from the sub menu Technical Analysis then jus select the time period and
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUSCAD.JPG Size: 81 KB


Also you have forward rates on all currencies its just a matter of looking.


Bob44
  • #81,873
  • Sep 9, 2017 11:16pm Sep 9, 2017 11:16pm
Quoting zMinga
{quote} Dear Emmanuel, donīt you use a ma_shift of 2 for calculating the PAC?

Hi,

there is no MA price shift in the original PAC

simply use two 5-period smoothed moving average set to High price and Low price.

this way, you can use any platform and do not have to rely on custom indicator.

see this old post "
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...34#post9773134
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #81,874
  • Sep 9, 2017 11:20pm Sep 9, 2017 11:20pm
Quoting jansb000
{quote} Hi Emmanuel, I have a question about the PAC: When I add the two moving averages to my HA_APB indicator it appears to be offset by one bar. In the pictures below you can see how it looks on my screen. In the second screen I have corrected the MA by one bar shift. Also, it appears as if the PAC from the HA_APB is a bit narrower. Do you know if this difference is relevant for trading? {image} {image}

Hi,

see this old post which compare the different PACs.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...26#post8576126

different PAC will means you define different rules for entry and exit.

However, since we are testing trading on D1 chart, we go back to the original PAC which is 2 smoothed moving average set to High and Low prices. This works better than the aggressive use of the 5EMA, Typical Price, Shift+3.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #81,875
  • Sep 9, 2017 11:33pm Sep 9, 2017 11:33pm
Quoting mousteven
EURGBP weekly: IB breakout to the downside and TDI green line is showing overbought and consolidation. I believe GBP is still strong and EUR is weak in the coming week. {image}

EURGBP Week 37 Sep 11 possible sell trade with TP 9033

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP Week 37 MN BPP.png Size: 36 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP Week 37 BEEB setup Sep 08 close.png Size: 69 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #81,876
  • Sep 9, 2017 11:42pm Sep 9, 2017 11:42pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Thanks Emmanuel, I was looking for a less generic answer but I guess it is everyone's job to come up with their own answer based their own trading style. I was on the GBPUSD H1 ride on Friday and realized that I had no reason to get out given the positive configuration but it was also Friday, hence my initial question. As I said, probably an answer that I have to answer myself Have a nice weekend and thanks for your continued kindness and dedication to other traders
Well, if you mention it is H1 trade, then I consider that to be intraday trading which is very short term. I would close my H1 trades withing 3 to 5 hours during any market session. If the trade was done during the London session and is in profit, I would close it before NY session open. There is one exception to this simple rule, i.e. if the H1 trade can be converted to H4 trade with no risk, than I let it run as a H4 trade and manage it in H4.

In other scenario, if the trade was a H4 swing trade, I will close it by the time London market session closes on Friday. I do not hold my H4 swing trades over the weekend, there is also one exception to this rule, i.e. if there is opportunity to convert the H4 swing trade to D1 chart Position trade, then I do so and manage that in D1 chart timeframe. In converting any trade to the next higher timeframe, there must not be any change or increase in the risk taken.

In your GBPUSD H1 trade example, it would be good to close that in profit since it is Friday. Take the profit and you can still resume trading on Monday.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #81,877
  • Sep 10, 2017 2:04am Sep 10, 2017 2:04am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} EURGBP Week 37 Sep 11 possible sell trade with TP 9033 {image} {image}
yes,could work out, but not for me, for me overall trend shows up, I'm waiting for the right setup when monthly/weekly/daily are walking the same way and show a setup which is imo an A+++Setup. And when this don't happendthen there will be enough others
  • #81,878
  • Sep 10, 2017 2:20am Sep 10, 2017 2:20am
Hi All Experts/ Emmanuel

Here is my Big Picture Analysis for the coming week. Any sugestion/criticism is most welcome.

USDCAD
Can be sold by catching the signal on H4
I made pretty decent profit with SE/ME last week
Now next support could be at 1.2000

AUDUSD
Good to buy straight when the market opns
Week and Month are bullish

GBPAUD
Can be sold if there is a clear signal and if Friday's WRB breaks to the down side

EURGBP
Can be sold straight when the market opens (without any gap)
As on the week there is an inside bar breakout
Next support could be at 0.9033 and then at 0.9000


I will stay away from EURNZD
as the bullish trend has been exhausted

Regards
  • #81,879
  • Sep 10, 2017 4:01am Sep 10, 2017 4:01am
Quoting Deichkind
{quote} yes,could work out, but not for me, for me overall trend shows up, I'm waiting for the right setup when monthly/weekly/daily are walking the same way and show a setup which is imo an A+++Setup. And when this don't happendthen there will be enough others
I do like the look of selling EURGBP, the Daily BEEB candle is the killer signal for me along with the weakening EUR and the Strengthening GBP.
Target price for me is always the 50EMA. Below is my Big Picture work chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP.png Size: 108 KB
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #81,880
  • Sep 10, 2017 4:41am Sep 10, 2017 4:41am
So, Big Picture Analysis complete for this week. Lets see how it turns out.

Selling EURGBP - Will sell on open, I have a good feeling about this trade. Yes, Agree with Mazibee @ emmanuel.
Selling USDCAD - Weak USD for some time by the looks. CAD is strong at present. Yes, Agree with Mazibee.
Selling USDJPY - Still in trades from last week. Yes, Agree with Mazibee
Buy GBPNZD - Had great build trades with MEME last week, still in trade.

Finished with EURNZD & GBPCAD, it was a great finish to last week with these pairs.
I do like the look of GBPUSD, I will see how that pair moves this week.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
112 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
NikiPink