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100 Trades Analysis

  • #421
  • Sep 7, 2017 2:34pm Sep 7, 2017 2:34pm
i'm using profiles just to get a structure for the day. Not so much relying on volume since it's just based on specific broker ticks. but i have compared that to actual volume using currency futures. +90% of the time it matches the structure. so ticks vs actual volume gives out similar structurese

so now my expriement is adding to the list of structures i am trading. i try not to get too complicated with my list. i try to stick to core set of structures, but from time to time i just need to test out a variation of that structure to see how it goes.
  • #422
  • Sep 7, 2017 2:36pm Sep 7, 2017 2:36pm
Quoting hilmy83
ok bit of additonal notes added for testing#3, one last time if i don't get at least 10 consecutive winning days..we'll just scrap this idea for now and go just back to my mediocre way of trading. Test #2 for reference {image}
Hilmy you are good trader. But this you probably already know. I just wanted to suggest that instead of 40:1 leverage you would use 8:1 or lower that you would not be screwed by SL so many times. You were right about direction at least 1 time today and if you would devide your trade to 5 bullets for example you would come out with profits, now you had relatively large loss for one day of trading even for a test account. You could have invited your wife for nice dinner more then once insted. It is just a pitty to give so much at once to the already rich "Smart Money" ( smart money my ass- they use fiat paper money and so almost never lose) crooks.

I was also thinking about your way of increasing lot size every trade after a winner. Well, maybe you should think twice on that, because this way you Will ALWAYS have bigger losers then winners in terms of $$- my suggestion goes in direction of increasing lot size only after a certain amount of time ( for example 1 month) and keep it the same size for the rest of the month.
I know the RR and %risk myths and blah, blah.....but stop and think for a while- maybe your trading system is just good the way it is and you should rethink those myths. After all- think where you got them from ( most probably from the same Smart Money that would do all to take your Dumb Money away as soon as possible).
PVSRA
  • #423
  • Sep 7, 2017 2:37pm Sep 7, 2017 2:37pm
Yes I use the levels with price structure to get in trades. It's very tough trading mp or volume when it relates to forex as you said it's all artificial
  • #424
  • Sep 7, 2017 2:38pm Sep 7, 2017 2:38pm
Quoting hilmy83
i'm using profiles just to get a structure for the day. Not so much relying on volume since it's just based on specific broker ticks. but i have compared that to actual volume using currency futures. +90% of the time it matches the structure. so ticks vs actual volume gives out similar structurese so now my expriement is adding to the list of structures i am trading. i try not to get too complicated with my list. i try to stick to core set of structures, but from time to time i just need to test out a variation of that structure to see how it goes....
It is not the point in actual volume ( no. of trades or size of all trades). The point is in volume change relative to previous candle ( or cluster of candles) volume.
PVSRA
  • #425
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:14pm Sep 7, 2017 4:14pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} frankly, i dont like to see any with 50%+ drawdown,.
i don't like big drawdowns either

it doesn't matter how high a performance you can achieve if you run into big drawdowns

i like your TE , coz you only have a 5 % drawdown
  • #426
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:33pm Sep 7, 2017 4:33pm
it's relative

TE 1 50% DD with 200% gain
TE 2 5% DD with 20% gain

a the end of the day it's PF that matters not DD
  • #427
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:55pm Sep 7, 2017 4:55pm
just imagine you build an account with sweat and blood up to 1 Million USD

just imagine then one day shit hits the fan and you run into a 50 % DD and you loose 500 K

how would you feel ?
  • #428
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:56pm Sep 7, 2017 4:56pm
Quoting hilmy83
it's relative TE 1 50% DD with 200% gain TE 2 5% DD with 20% gain a the end of the day it's PF that matters not DD
i would call it reality factor

i know you are the gunslinger type, and wouldnt care to risk 150k drawdown from your 300k account, but most of us poor, everyday traders who not always have a chance to see that money in a lifetime it is not unrealistic to think that would get into emotional shock phase before/or from to lose 1-3 house for a drawdown!, vs maybe be able to handle emotionally as much as 1-2 months living cost!

of course, for argument sake, on 1k equity the bigger profit will win hands down on the compounding effect; that will beat the emotional shock at that level

as for profit factor, your linked TE has a very nice 4.22
for example my PF is only 3.22

there is always something to improve!

note: TE counts return funny, not like myfxbook, time weighted
the more you add funds during the TEs life, the less the return, but if you withdraw the more it will look the return.
so, myfxbook abs.gain=TE....only total deposit vs total profit....so, if i withdraw 95% of my funds, it will suddenly will jump 20x the current number!!!! would 5800% be impressive?
but

Gain
Time-Weighted Return (TWR) that measures the performance of a dollar invested in the system since inception.
TWR measurement is required by the Global Investment Performance Standards published by the CFA Institute. Its distinguishing characteristic is that cash inflows, cash outflows and amounts invested over different time periods have no impact on the return.

  1. Gain:+84.88%
  2. Abs. Gain:+29.75%

there is always, always another trade!!
  • #429
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:16pm Sep 7, 2017 5:16pm
Having 50% drawdown in not really a business plan I keep a steady 5000 in my acct my risk per trade 75 daily reward between 400 to 500 at end of month draw out profits
  • #430
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:22pm Sep 7, 2017 5:22pm
Quoting Divergence
Having 50% drawdown in not really a business plan I keep a steady 5000 in my acct my risk per trade 75 daily reward between 400 to 500 at end of month draw out profits
good plan.
why not keep 6k on your account, and risk 80 the next month, and profit between 450 to 550, after still withdrawing the lion share of your profit end of month?
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #431
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:27pm Sep 7, 2017 5:27pm
Well been trading for 16 years last 7 for a living and still have that work salary mentality making 6000 to 8000 a month while my bills are 2000 a month is perfect for me and my wife not looking to become rich just live life comfortably
  • #432
  • Sep 7, 2017 7:40pm Sep 7, 2017 7:40pm
at the end of the day i think we all can agree that it doesnt matter if it's 5% DD or 50%, whether you have $1000, or $100,000 account,

what matters is can you take money out of the market..

1. first phase is to be net negative in transfer meaning you've withdrawn over your deposit. you've crossed that hurdle that many people struggle with

2. second phase you withdraw consistently

3. you've made your withdrawals to be sustainable income

i'm in phase 1, waiting on phase 2
  • #433
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:06pm Sep 7, 2017 8:06pm
DD is inevitable, period. Whether you can control it or not, is quite another matter - that's as much dependant on your risk appetite (MM), as it is on the 'edge' you apply - and that, combined, is exactly what 'creates' consistency.
  • #434
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:34pm Sep 7, 2017 9:34pm
Quoting hilmy83
at the end of the day i think we all can agree that it doesnt matter if it's 5% DD or 50%, whether you have $1000, or $100,000 account, what matters is can you take money out of the market.. 1. first phase is to be net negative in transfer meaning you've withdrawn over your deposit. you've crossed that hurdle that many people struggle with 2. second phase you withdraw consistently 3. you've made your withdrawals to be sustainable income i'm in phase 1, waiting on phase 2
phase 0 : growing your equity

i am at phase 0.5
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #435
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:47pm Sep 7, 2017 9:47pm
Quoting Divergence
First rule of trading for a living is treat it like a business. Do you have a game plan or you just putting on trades. How long do you trade per day. I only trade 1 hour it seems you guys trade all day. So if you trade just as a hobby disregard this post
Just curious, what do you do after trading for an hour? Do you do other side business to keep yourself occupied, or just enjoy life? haha (: Cheers
  • #436
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:50pm Sep 7, 2017 9:50pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Hilmy you are good trader. But this you probably already know. I just wanted to suggest that instead of 40:1 leverage you would use 8:1 or lower that you would not be screwed by SL so many times. You were right about direction at least 1 time today and if you would devide your trade to 5 bullets for example you would come out with profits, now you had relatively large loss for one day of trading even for a test account. You could have invited your wife for nice dinner more then once insted. It is just a pitty to give so much at once to the...
Hey guys, sorry to chip in but I do agree with Fisher that hilmy is a good trader. I have observe from afar that most of the time he has got his trades right. In the past, he has also made big losses and managed to recover them pretty well.

However, what I also realized is that there were times when he was up +20 odd pips but ended up losing the trades. Generally (or rather most of the time), he seems to be closing his trades around 30 odd pips. In other words, he seems to risk the +20pips profit for another 10pips ie> 66.6% for another 33.3%.

I would suggest to him to use trail stop after certain stage and he would have avoided all these losses but at the same time his profit won't be as big as his usual trades. More importantly, this may not suit his trading style. So, I guess only him can find a balance between both to play safe or to risk more.
  • #437
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:02pm Sep 7, 2017 10:02pm
Quoting FxLapozi
{quote} Hey guys, sorry to chip in but I do agree with Fisher that hilmy is a good trader. I have observe from afar that most of the time he has got his trades right. In the past, he has also made big losses and managed to recover them pretty well. However, what I also realized is that there were times when he was up +20 odd pips but ended up losing the trades. Generally (or rather most of the time), he seems to be closing his trades around 30 odd pips. In other words, he seems to risk the +20pips profit for another 10pips ie> 66.6% for another...
I cant remember the source now, but sometime ago I read a study done on various take profit strategies. one of them was comparing trailing with fixed target. it showed that fixed target over time outperform trailing stops. I actually have done this study myself albeit over a short period years ago. trailing stop tends to diminish my returns.

my target is not random. it's based a level dictated by profile structure. if it's not hit, it's not meant to hit

so test#3 is on its way

just food for thought..

this first trade took 8 minutes to realize..8 minutes to pull in $500

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 24 KB


think about average job, how much hours you put in to make $100, $200 etc. I work full time at a defense contract company making 80k/year, that's about $40/hour, $320/day

trading is definitely one of those jobs where it is imperative that you disassociate yourself from the money. I think I got this mindset from phil ivey (poker player). I saw his interview talking about how he got started. I think if you think about how much money you're making/losing, and what that translates to, it will hinder your progress as trader. my motto is, be aggressive, don't blow out, and repeat...
  • #438
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:34pm Sep 7, 2017 10:34pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} ... trading is definitely one of those jobs where it is imperative that you disassociate yourself from the money. I think I got this mindset from phil ivey (poker player). I saw his interview talking about how he got started. I think if you think about how much money you're making/losing, and what that translates to, it will hinder your progress as trader. my motto is, be aggressive, don't blow out, and repeat...
I've been more of a lurker than a poster due to anxiety. But I wanted to say that I find this 100% true and I totally agree with you. Before online poker's 'Black Friday', (I was an online poker loser from 2003-2006 and an online pro from 2007-2011) I found the game to be the best way to exercise this mindset. Survival, execution, and making the positive EV decision. Also, I enjoy your threads and your posts Hilmy. Entertaining and informative. Lots of positive EV.
  • #439
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:37pm Sep 7, 2017 10:37pm
Quoting hilmy83
my motto is, be aggressive, don't blow out, and repeat...
With all due respect hilmy, as you surely are quite a persona here... being aggressive means nothing to the market. The only question you should ask yourself is - do I have a clearly defined edge? If no, go back to the drawing board.
  • #440
  • Sep 7, 2017 11:37pm Sep 7, 2017 11:37pm
Quoting BadTunaSalad
{quote} I've been more of a lurker than a poster due to anxiety. But I wanted to say that I find this 100% true and I totally agree with you. Before online poker's 'Black Friday', (I was an online poker loser from 2003-2006 and an online pro from 2007-2011) I found the game to be the best way to exercise this mindset. Survival, execution, and making the positive EV decision. Also, I enjoy your threads and your posts Hilmy. Entertaining and informative. Lots of positive EV.
I started playing poker around the same time I decided to do daytrading which was 2009. back then they had poker after dark shows that I watch almost everyday. the way the pros handle big winners/losers was so inspiring. I would watch tom dawn and ivey just go all in on a bluff,and then fold so easily the next hand. truly amazing to see.
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