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  • #1,130,461
  • Aug 28, 2017 6:54am Aug 28, 2017 6:54am
Quoting EvilEye
{quote} Nobody should be doing anything with this market right now. Everyone either stayed out, had their account destroyed, or they've taken profit from the huge move. Therefore... nobody is in the market, hence it won't move until more players get in. Besides, it's a new market cycle. Won't see anything until later. NFP this week could be interesting though.
NFP really is a market mover in the past months. Today looks like a typical slow summer Monday.
  • #1,130,462
  • Aug 28, 2017 6:56am Aug 28, 2017 6:56am
Quoting jusstin911
{quote} At least a DT area would be nice to take a chance on SHORT.. We prolly heading there now Easy Mate
Yeah I know buddy. It won't be easy getting this thing down, but eventually it will fall like a rock. It is inevitable.
The market is allready way too overextended and if the buyers don't take their profits soon, they will have to bite themselves in the ass.

Besides, fundamentals are even more unpredictable, not to mention the breaking news as a tool to move the market.
It feels very shaky now and something is about to happen.

Chhers
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,130,463
  • Aug 28, 2017 6:56am Aug 28, 2017 6:56am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Where my GBP bulls at? Targets for this week? 1.2990? NZD 7300?
cable made 3 pushes up....seems traders are fading it .....
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,130,464
  • Aug 28, 2017 6:58am Aug 28, 2017 6:58am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Downtrend is often more violent and crazy than upmove Agree with 1.25 and even 1.33...but waiting for pullback to 1.15-1.12 and see if i can get some longs there for 1.3xxx

Is this prediction by the end of this 2017 or for 5year term?
I can.I will. End of story.
  • #1,130,465
  • Aug 28, 2017 6:58am Aug 28, 2017 6:58am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Downtrend is often more violent and crazy than upmove Agree with 1.25 and even 1.33...but waiting for pullback to 1.15-1.12 and see if i can get some longs there for 1.3xxx
If you think about this I am not sure it makes sense if you mean downtrend at forex. Forex is just 2 currencies and whether the chart goes up or down only depends which currency is in the first place and which in second.
For example you have USD/CAD and it's futures 6C (which is basically CAD/USD). Both charts are 100% correlated only in reverse - one goes up, the other down. You really cant say that downtrend is usually stronger in this case can you? This is just illustration but it is true for all FX pairs.
  • #1,130,466
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:04am Aug 28, 2017 7:04am
Obviously, I'm an open book. My account 'ibdman' is out in the open for all to see. You can see the good bad and ugly. I don't varnish things. It doesn't matter if you are long or short. In a given time frame most will make money. Why? Currency pairs go up then down. Many of you are intraday traders but have not honed your skills sufficiently. Intraday and scalping requires reading the market and based on the posts, most have not acquired the necessary skill set. I'll be honest, neither have I; that's why I, in most cases, I do not do intraday.

I've blown out many accounts, but my counter trend strategy has been the most effective. Please do not follow it, particularly if you live in the US and have to deal with the FIFO rules. Looking at my account now, you would probably say it still doesn't work. All I can say is time is on my side. My positions is like herding sheep. Sometimes, the wolves get a couple (margin out) but they usually get replaced in a better position. It's a little whacky but this is not the reason for my post.

Some of you need to do some simple tried and true rules such as the one times risk based on 1% of your account to the two times reward method based on just a 50% success rate. I don't usually recommend vids but this one encapsulates what many of you are doing wrong. It's all about probabilities.

Inserted Video


This 'I forgot to...' 'I slept in and lost...' 'I should have...'. These are not statements of a trader but dabblers not taking their trading seriously. You need to know when to go in, set your stop loss, set your two times take profit and walk away. If you win 50% of the time you will make a good profit.

Trading forex doesn't have to be hit and miss.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,130,467
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:07am Aug 28, 2017 7:07am
Quoting DonaldFX
{quote} If you think about this I am not sure it makes sense if you mean downtrend at forex. Forex is just 2 currencies and whether the chart goes up or down only depends which currency is in the first place and which in second. For example you have USD/CAD and it's futures 6C (which is basically CAD/USD). Both charts are 100% correlated only in reverse - one goes up, the other down. You really cant say that downtrend is usually stronger in this case can you? This is just illustration but it is true for all FX pairs.
It kind of does make sense. There are three reasons why a pair goes down:
1. Cur #1 gets weak. Cur #2 no change.
2. Cur #2 gets strong. Cur #1 no change.
3. Cur #1 gets weak, while Cur#2 gets strong.

In case of (2) and especially in case of (3) the move can be more violent than ususal.

Chhers
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,130,468
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:10am Aug 28, 2017 7:10am
I was actually waiting for a Double Top to sell the retrace but it seems to be going for a Double Bottom first? who knows what these people are up to? I just hope I don't miss out on whatever coming.. anyway I will just wait for this USD data to pass before taking any trade for today..
  • #1,130,469
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:11am Aug 28, 2017 7:11am
Quoting DonaldFX
{quote} If you think about this I am not sure it makes sense if you mean downtrend at forex. Forex is just 2 currencies and whether the chart goes up or down only depends which currency is in the first place and which in second. For example you have USD/CAD and it's futures 6C (which is basically CAD/USD). Both charts are 100% correlated only in reverse - one goes up, the other down. You really cant say that downtrend is usually stronger in this case can you? This is just illustration but it is true for all FX pairs.
Very good point. If you think about it, there is no such thing as a bullish or bear trend in the forex market. For example on the EUR/USD, if it's bullish, ask a trader if the USD is bullish--no. So if it's bullish for the EUR then it's bearish for the USD currency. But since it's a legacy off the stock market, we are stuck with it. So that concept is reserved simply because the chart is vertical hence up is bullish. Instead of uptrend we should say trending euro. That will not happen.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,130,470
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:15am Aug 28, 2017 7:15am
Quoting DonaldFX
{quote} If you think about this I am not sure it makes sense if you mean downtrend at forex. Forex is just 2 currencies and whether the chart goes up or down only depends which currency is in the first place and which in second. For example you have USD/CAD and it's futures 6C (which is basically CAD/USD). Both charts are 100% correlated only in reverse - one goes up, the other down. You really cant say that downtrend is usually stronger in this case can you? This is just illustration but it is true for all FX pairs.
Hes just talking historically how EUR seems to have beartrends that move faster than bull trends.

Not always the case though
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,130,471
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:15am Aug 28, 2017 7:15am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} I do agree chasing WOMEN usually loses money.
There are few times when I will chase. And that's when I know the breakout will provide a significant push higher. Otherwise I buy dips too.
  • #1,130,472
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:16am Aug 28, 2017 7:16am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote}
Chasing anything is usually bad

FOMO and FUD
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,130,473
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:27am Aug 28, 2017 7:27am
Quoting Taigen
. I've blown out many accounts, but my counter trend strategy has been the most effective.
I agree to that, counter trend strategies are very effective, and interesting consept. The problem with these are, that verifying the profitability takes very long time, because the strategy usually needs loose money management.
Here is a test graph of a quick EA experiment of mine - the EA goes against the trend based on RSI, works pretty well for months, until the laws of probability kick in with their merciless results

Feel free to use my mt5 EA, I don't care to hold any rights to it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 Gambler.ex5   141 KB | 254 downloads
Pension fund Return This Month: 2.2%
  • #1,130,474
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:29am Aug 28, 2017 7:29am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Chasing anything is usually bad FOMO and FUD
lol thats cryptomarket acronyms
  • #1,130,475
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:51am Aug 28, 2017 7:51am
Anyone who is in England should take the day off. The weather is fab and there is no US or Euro data out today so take a break lads.

Spend some of those gains if you have some.
  • #1,130,476
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:52am Aug 28, 2017 7:52am
Quoting mades
{quote} lol thats cryptomarket acronyms
pump and dump heaven lol im a whale in some of these little markets its great fun actually

i can push prices 10-20% with ease

monaco (MCO) has been a beast of a trade congrats to anyone who caught it

Quoting 5astelija
{quote} I agree to that, counter trend strategies are very effective, and interesting consept. The problem with these are, that verifying the profitability takes very long time, because the strategy usually needs loose money management. Here is a test graph of a quick EA experiment of mine - the EA goes against the trend based on RSI, works pretty well for months, until the laws of probability kick in with their merciless results Feel free to use my mt5 EA, I don't care to hold any rights to it. {image} {file}
grid EA only works for the wealthy. small account under 50k cant handle it

grid EA is just for extra income while sleeping. it will never outperform a real trader.

the reason your backtest blew out is probably a take profit too wide. grid EA needs very small TP > cost basis.
unless it is gridding with the long term trend then its more profitable to have a wide take profit without increasing the risk too much
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,130,477
  • Aug 28, 2017 7:56am Aug 28, 2017 7:56am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,130,478
  • Aug 28, 2017 8:02am Aug 28, 2017 8:02am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} the reason your backtest blew out is probably a take profit too wide. grid EA needs very small TP > cost basis. unless it is gridding with the long term trend then its more profitable to have a wide take profit without increasing the risk too much
Actually the ea doesn't use TP at all, it just closes profitable buys when rsi is 70 and vice versa for sells. So the minimum profit is very close to 0.
The strategy needs a big account indeed, and still I would never invest in it. There is no actual trading edge in it, it just a "clever" way of reorganizing probability, so to speak - small wins for some time, eventually big loss. Can't avoid it, no matter how big an account.
Pension fund Return This Month: 2.2%
  • #1,130,479
  • Edited 8:18am Aug 28, 2017 8:06am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting 5astelija
{quote} Actually the ea doesn't use TP at all, it just closes profitable buys when rsi is 70 and vice versa for sells. So the minimum profit is very close to 0. The strategy needs a big account indeed, and still I would never invest in it. There is no actual trading edge in it, it just a "clever" way of reorganizing probability, so to speak - small wins for some time, eventually big loss. Can't avoid it, no matter how big an account.
That is untrue. I run a grid EA that almost never sees a big drawdown (big = over 5%) Sure it only makes 5% a year but who cares. That is not the point. The point is that it makes money I would not have made had it not been running.

It takes 100-300 trades per day (not counting each grid as a trade)
When the market is making a big push against it I hedge and even net flip the position to take advantage of this.

But since I lack the motivation/focus (dont we all) to scalp every 1 minute spike, I just let the EA do it.

0.6 pip no commission is not necessary but doubles the profitability and to get those spreads you need to be doing 50m+ a month at a lot of brokers

I prefer to catch the 15m and 1hour swings when I day trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,130,480
  • Aug 28, 2017 8:08am Aug 28, 2017 8:08am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} That is untrue. I run a grid EA that almost never sees a big drawdown. Sure it only makes 5% a year but who cares. That is not the point. The point is that it makes money I would not have made had it not been running. It takes 100-300 trades per day (not counting each grid as a trade) When the market is making a big push against it I hedge and even net flip the position to take advantage of this. But since I lack the motivation to scalp every 1 minute move, I just let the EA do it. I prefer to catch the 15m and 1hour swings when I day trade...
That's great, I salute you for your success and hope the drawdown never comes to you
Pension fund Return This Month: 2.2%
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