Here's my expectation. It will come out and the market will move, maybe a little, maybe a lot.
It may be interesting to note that the disgustingly poor ZEW this morning has been largely shrugged off by the mkt. This can be interpreted in many ways, but I am off the mind that if the US data is USD positive the reaction could be a little exagerated because the weak ZEW is still fresh in the market's pyschology (ie its still today's news). In my eyes, the ZEW may just be a survey of analysts but it is one of the few forward looking indicators and it does have some predictive power for the German IFO data. I still don't know which way it is going, I just think there is a skewed risk favouring greater USD gains on a $+ive surprise than vice-versa.
PS - see Maxey's tables on the Lets Trade the News thread for more info on mkt reactions.
It seems that the dollar is weak since 8 30. Most of the news announmcents were against teh dollar, so it seems to go long. I think this is a good trend to keep for a while (a few hours?).
Here's my expectation. It will come out and the market will move, maybe a little, maybe a lot.
It may be interesting to note that the disgustingly poor ZEW this morning has been largely shrugged off by the mkt. This can be interpreted in many ways, but I am off the mind that if the US data is USD positive the reaction could be a little exagerated because the weak ZEW is still fresh in the market's pyschology (ie its still today's news). In my eyes, the ZEW may just be a survey of analysts but it is one of the few forward looking indicators and it does have some predictive power for the German IFO data. I still don't know which way it is going, I just think there is a skewed risk favouring greater USD gains on a $+ive surprise than vice-versa.
PS - see Maxey's tables on the Lets Trade the News thread for more info on mkt reactions.
I'm sure a lot of people would wish to be in the same position so don't knock it!! Better than -6 pips 
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