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  • #1,127,621
  • Edited 6:13am Aug 12, 2017 5:46am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting Don96
{quote} trading records of what?
I think he disbelieves anyone who's profitable can be profitable without a risk-reward calculation for their trades. So, I am guessing, he thinks if you don't advocate for having a higher ratio of reward to risk calculated that you must not be profitable...

He wants you to post your history and prove you know how to make money before he's willing to admit he's wrong. Even though his account probably already tells him that he's wrong. He doesn't seem to understand that a reward calculation is for determining when you've run out of patience and a risk calculation is for determining when to admit you're wrong but that neither are necessary when you understand what you're doing. Since he ignored me he's probably not very good with either patience or learning when he's wrong,

Your signature probably confuses him.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,127,622
  • Aug 12, 2017 6:14am Aug 12, 2017 6:14am
Quoting mr.brown
{quote} post trading records I will leave here today
You haven't posted any trading records from what I have seen mate!!
  • #1,127,623
  • Aug 12, 2017 6:50am Aug 12, 2017 6:50am
to whom it may concern;
Risk reward ratio is everything for retail traders. Its even way more important then knowing d direction while no one knows d direction. every retail trader will come to this point sooner or later. for some it might take months for some years. I will not discuss paper lions, losers, forum winners
if u have trading records w max 20% dd u can contact me
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #1,127,624
  • Aug 12, 2017 7:03am Aug 12, 2017 7:03am
Quoting mr.brown
to whom it may concern; Risk reward ratio is everything for retail traders. Its even way more important then knowing d direction while no one knows d direction. every retail trader will come to this point sooner or later. for some it might take months for some years. I will not discuss paper lions, losers, forum winners if u have trading records w max 20% dd u can contact me
agree with that
  • #1,127,625
  • Aug 12, 2017 7:03am Aug 12, 2017 7:03am
Quoting mr.brown
to whom it may concern; Risk reward ratio is everything for retail traders. Its even way more important then knowing d direction while no one knows d direction. every retail trader will come to this point sooner or later. for some it might take months for some years. I will not discuss paper lions, losers, forum winners if u have trading records w max 20% dd u can contact me

No one wants to contact you. No one wants to help you make money. Any of us that already know how to trade have no need nor desire for it. It would be a gift to you for us to do so. Not us.

Especially since you don't understand what you're discussing.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,127,626
  • Aug 12, 2017 7:31am Aug 12, 2017 7:31am
Quoting classy
{quote} hi mate nice post/analysis always ,thanks.I know you are harmonic pattern master/boss but i have question,if you allow me? do you consider /give important 1h pattern or day/week ? i am just sharing.please give some shed light. {image}
Thanks for your post. Your butterfly pattern looks okay to me. But be aware that the D leg of your pattern can still go much higher and still would be valid. That's why I don't like to trade the Butterfly and the Crab patterns compared to all the others, since guessing where D leg ends is often not easy enough.

Please also make use of this link to see more examples of ideas from many other traders: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/

I was sharing my pattern ideas from time to time in the past but lately I prefer to focus only on important levels, since it is easier to understand for most of our members here. So I kindly have to say no for your request. But never hesitate to ask me in case you have questions about patterns or trading in general.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #1,127,627
  • Aug 12, 2017 7:36am Aug 12, 2017 7:36am
Quoting bladerogers
Long term i see serious weakness in the USD, to the tune of 1.50 plus on this pair come summer 2020. However, it's unlikely a straight move and I see us heading back to at least the 1.14 range first. However, that downside move I see is not the perfect pattern I am looking for...I need another few sessions before I commit to a sell/determine my reading is right. HOWEVER, that long term upside move IS picture perfect, and I have very high confidence that we will see 1.50 - 1.60 in 2020.
Going beyond even a year wouldn't it seem just a little esoteric to any kind of future numbers, particularly in the forex market? One nation state with one huge catastrophe can reverberate to all the major currency pairs. The world seems way too volatile to make any prediction beyond a few months or year. Besides forex is based on a fiat money system where perception is the only master.

Finally, how does an ethereal prediction help anyone to make a profit in forex?
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,127,628
  • Aug 12, 2017 9:30am Aug 12, 2017 9:30am
Quoting mr.brown
to whom it may concern; Risk reward ratio is everything for retail traders. Its even way more important then knowing d direction while no one knows d direction. every retail trader will come to this point sooner or later. for some it might take months for some years. I will not discuss paper lions, losers, forum winners if u have trading records w max 20% dd u can contact me
You're right partially. The only thing is risk shouldn't be static. I think what trips most retail traders is that they stick to a r:r and don't allow flexibility. I can tell you from my own personal experiences that my risk can go from less <1:1 to >1:3 in the same trade throughout the session. So it's not as simple as black and white here..
  • #1,127,629
  • Aug 12, 2017 9:47am Aug 12, 2017 9:47am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} You're right partially. The only thing is risk shouldn't be static. I think what trips most retail traders is that they stick to a r:r and don't allow flexibility. I can tell you from my own personal experiences that my risk can go from less <1:1 to >1:3 in the same trade throughout the session. So it's not as simple as black and white here..
flexibility is another key issue could be related w volatility, seasonal, etc... , but this thread is too far away from even risk reward correlation n its importance

if ur able to stay 1:1 or reward bigger then risk, thats d holy grail of retails, if we go into theoretical discussion here w no cost 50/50 coin toss BS it goes no where. d reality is retails have extreme cost for each trade, scroll back already posted a calculation of how brokers make huge money while retails fight for BE account
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #1,127,630
  • Aug 12, 2017 9:48am Aug 12, 2017 9:48am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Thanks for your post. Your butterfly pattern looks okay to me. But be aware that the D leg of your pattern can still go much higher and still would be valid. That's why I don't like to trade the Butterfly and the Crab patterns compared to all the others, since guessing where D leg ends is often not easy enough. Please also make use of this link to see more examples of ideas from many other traders: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/ I was sharing my pattern ideas from time to time in the past but lately I prefer to focus...
thanks for your valuable suggestion.yes i agree with you ,it can go more higher 4h is also be bat too but definitely we need confirmation before short ,i am expecting lil retrace ,let's see what 's next we must consider trump and kim funda too ..lol
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #1,127,631
  • Aug 12, 2017 9:49am Aug 12, 2017 9:49am
Here you go

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Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,127,632
  • Aug 12, 2017 9:53am Aug 12, 2017 9:53am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} You're right partially. The only thing is risk shouldn't be static. I think what trips most retail traders is that they stick to a r:r and don't allow flexibility. I can tell you from my own personal experiences that my risk can go from less <1:1 to >1:3 in the same trade throughout the session. So it's not as simple as black and white here..
Agreed. Market not static. You set your goals but it doesn't mean market always will do what you want. In theory even if you chasing 10 pip you SL can go way higher . In ideal world R;R ratio has to have 1 more variable- TIME. Time you spend to get you desirable profit. If you live out of forex profit, time is essential. Especially if your life style requires making more than 3-5 hundred K a year.
  • #1,127,633
  • Aug 12, 2017 10:57am Aug 12, 2017 10:57am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} You can think you're right. Many losing traders do. But if you think you understand... you don't. The whole "risk/reward" nonsense is just training-wheels to get amateurs through the first stages of trading. It's like "Learning To Trade 101".
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I think he disbelieves anyone who's profitable can be profitable without a risk-reward calculation for their trades. So, I am guessing, he thinks if you don't advocate for having a higher ratio of reward to risk calculated that you must not be profitable...
Sounds to me like you are the one that's in disbelief that people that are defining their risk can be winning traders.

Not-KPMG and bithedz are the only ones that i know of that win big without using stop loss. The others are either broke or buying usdcad from 1.4250. Maybe there are others. But from what i've seen on this forum, when you don't have stop, you generally don't have account.

Now because of the above mentioned two traders i cannot say 100% sure that using stops is the only way to go and i can now accept that you can win money overall and increase account when you don't use stop loss.

As far as risk/reward goes, ofc you can be profitable with even less than 1:1 HOWEVER, the less risk reward you have the higher your win percentage needs to be in the long run for you to be profitable in that type of trade.

And yes, even if you define risk/reward before the trade, things can change because the market is dynamic. Still, your risk never changes if you use stop loss. Unless, you know, 'black swan' events or whatever you call it.
  • #1,127,634
  • Aug 12, 2017 12:33pm Aug 12, 2017 12:33pm
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} {quote} Sounds to me like you are the one that's in disbelief that people that are defining their risk can be winning traders. Not-KPMG and bithedz are the only ones that i know of that win big without using stop loss. The others are either broke or buying usdcad from 1.4250. Maybe there are others. But from what i've seen on this forum, when you don't have stop, you generally don't have account. Now because of the above mentioned two traders i cannot say 100% sure that using stops is the only way to go and...
I am one when going long term do not use stops. However, if I'm scalping or a trade on the 1 hour chart, I will do very tight stops. The dice roll for me is I want it to go my way based on either momentum or 3 15 minute candles at resistance or support. Otherwise, I will never use stops because I'm lousy at determining which way the PA goes. I use multiple micro pip positions so I can continue to buy against me. It's with the notion that any trend will eventually retrace.

I don't necessarily recommend this type of trading because it take a profound amount of patience. For the emotional trader that thinks people or entities are against them if it doesn't go their way, clearly you need to use another strategy. When it does come in, it can be a monster wave. but I had times where I just got a break even or worse.

If you do use stops, get a target price, set them and walk away from your computer. If you lost, analyse why and the same goes for a win. If you win 7 out of ten times, you are doing pretty good.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,127,635
  • Aug 12, 2017 12:51pm Aug 12, 2017 12:51pm
Change euro for a dollar...
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I am who I am
  • #1,127,636
  • Aug 12, 2017 1:04pm Aug 12, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting Taigen
{quote} I am one when going long term do not use stops. However, if I'm scalping or a trade on the 1 hour chart, I will do very tight stops. The dice roll for me is I want it to go my way based on either momentum or 3 15 minute candles at resistance or support. Otherwise, I will never use stops because I'm lousy at determining which way the PA goes. I use multiple micro pip positions so I can continue to buy against me. It's with the notion that any trend will eventually retrace. I don't necessarily recommend this type of trading because it take...

Blind stops kill accounts. The only reason they should be used is to reverse a trade, scalp a fade, and as a safety precaution in case of a sudden massive spike against you. Anyone who isn't using them very precisely or as a safety measure that they hope to never use is doing it wrong.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,127,637
  • Aug 12, 2017 1:30pm Aug 12, 2017 1:30pm
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote}... . Not-KPMG and bithedz are the only ones that i know of that win big without using stop loss........ As far as risk/reward goes, ofc you can be profitable with even less than 1:1...... And yes, even if you define risk/reward before the trade, things can change because the market is dynamic.... .
Nice. Thanks.
I use mental SL.... it's an area / time when I close& reverse it. Slowly. No need to rush it!!!
Plus i used to lose big - with or without SL.
Think of it - if you don't know where market is going....you always lose.
Scalpers 3 pips are odd animal....

So what I did.???
I admitted I'm impatient and 4h chart is not my game.
I focused on technicals, remember the news, looking at retrace, trend and positioning.
OK?

So what now??
Euro positive. Why?? - trend up, the crowd is short, Trumpy is mad, gold is up. Stocks down.

Euro negative - we are in down Channel from 1.1844 to 1.1610. Bones has a good chart. Add the Fibos pal?

So??
If you long it - no need of SL. 1.20 to 1.23 TP.
WAIT to break up.!!!
Wait to bounce 1.16. Trendline is there or will be on 23Aug.
Small chance to hit 1.15. Very unlikely.

If you short....put a stop Not sure where... 1.1860??

Quoting Taigen
....if I'm scalping or a trade on the 1 hour chart, I will do very tight stops..... I want it to go my way based on either momentum or 3 15 minute candles at resistance or support.....
. It's with the notion that any trend will eventually retrace. I don't necessarily recommend.... amount of patience.... .
Good post

Yes 15/30/60 minutes charts are good for action. I mean news with impact of say 48 hours.
That's where I never use stop. I add!!!!! Sure I can wait a day to see profit

Go big frame - need patience. And deeeep pockets. Risk is bad.
See- a trend can keep going for 12-15 months. Euro 2014??

Green Pips all!!!
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,127,638
  • Aug 12, 2017 2:16pm Aug 12, 2017 2:16pm
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} {quote} Sounds to me like you are the one that's in disbelief that people that are defining their risk can be winning traders. Not-KPMG and bithedz are the only ones that i know of that win big without using stop loss. The others are either broke or buying usdcad from 1.4250. Maybe there are others. But from what i've seen on this forum, when you don't have stop, you generally don't have account. Now because of the above mentioned two traders i cannot say 100% sure that using stops is the only way to go and...
I think you can operate without a stop BUT you need to use zero leverage or even negative leverage.

Generally, though I'd have to agree that it is not a great idea.
  • #1,127,639
  • Aug 12, 2017 2:33pm Aug 12, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting fx1986
{quote} I think you can operate without a stop BUT you need to use zero leverage or even negative leverage. Generally, though I'd have to agree that it is not a great idea.
I didn't use stop in October after 5 pm est when Euro jumps up 200 plus pip within seconds. Immediately cost me 57% of my account, I was eating my dinner just accidentally decided to open trader on my phone, otherwise I could blew it completely. I use stops , just adding about 10 pips to closest s/r level in case shit.
  • #1,127,640
  • Aug 12, 2017 3:10pm Aug 12, 2017 3:10pm
Quoting Taigen
{quote} If you do use stops, get a target price, set them and walk away from your computer. If you lost, analyse why and the same goes for a win. If you win 7 out of ten times, you are doing pretty good.
You can't do this because it defeats the purpose of market being dynamic. So even if you use stops you gotta be on your computer ESPECIALLY if your doing trades counter-trend. Those tend to stop way before your 'goal'.

@Not-KPMG I didn't know you use stops...so i am curious, on average how big are they if you were to measure them? Pip wise...And how much % of your account you lose if that stop does get hit? And how much % per trade you win when you win? On eurusd for example. EDIT: nevermind i looked at the stats. Yea the key seems to be risk least in your case.

Quoting denisius
{quote} I didn't use stop in October after 5 pm est when Euro jumps up 200 plus pip within seconds. Immediately cost me 57% of my account, I was eating my dinner just accidentally decided to open trader on my phone, otherwise I could blew it completely. I use stops , just adding about 10 pips to closest s/r level in case shit.
People that don't use stop or have really big ones seem to risk very very little on each trade, that seems to be key. I mean look at fxtyrant and take the good side...after years of being in the wrong trade he is STILL not busto! You can't trade big with no stop loss, that is recipe for disaster. On the other hand, if you use big stop losses or none at all, aren't you kind of limiting your profits?
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