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  • #721
  • Sep 17, 2006 5:23pm Sep 17, 2006 5:23pm
Quoting ssteiner87
I thought US was speculated to have a rate decrease in early 2007. Of course it is speculation
It is indeed all speculation, and frequently depends on who you read. I have seem both opinions lately but thought that the arguments in favour of a year end rate increase were more compelling. This does not mean that they are more likely to be accurate.

How many times have I seen analysis by one person showing that a pair is likely to be going up while another analyst show you why the same pair is likely to be going down. A good example is the fxcmtr website. They have 9 experts giving their advice on what the various pairs are going to do. It is very common and at times very amusing to see how they often have diametrically opposed positions.

Darts or crystal balls anyone?
  • #722
  • Edited 6:46pm Sep 17, 2006 6:19pm | Edited 6:46pm
Greetings FXD!!,

This particular set-up highlights what I have commented on earlier in this thread - namely, the different perspectives thrown up by using 4 hourly candles that have variances in their starting times.

Here is the GBP set-up I had covering Fridays activities.

This gave me a demo entry to short at around 1.8850. You'll note that the price action around "your point 1" didn't show up on this chart, the 20.00 13/9 candle has a low which is 2 pips lower than that of the 4.00 14/9 candle, so it meant I did not refresh my demandline, as you were required to do on your chart, and it got me into a short trade quite some time before, and quite a lot higher price-wise, than the entry trigger generated on your chart.

This is not to say my set-up is more "right" than yours - I merely highlight the flaws created by different broker charting packages and their base times for 4 hour candles...

In any event, as this trade came within a cats whisker of the projected target during NYK on Friday, and with the G7 meeting looming, I demo closed it for +90 pips

regards

Xerof
Attached Image
  • #723
  • Sep 17, 2006 6:38pm Sep 17, 2006 6:38pm
Hey Xer

Say, have you noticed how the price projections a lot of times meet up eerily well with 127.2% of the former ranges? Noticed this a handful of times and the same thing of course goes for the 161.8% and maybe even the odd OP/XOP, even though I prefer still calling them FE 100 and FE 161.8% thank you very much
Otherwise it just makes me think of cop shoots cop and while they had a good album (which nobody knows) it is a rather brutal expression

I find it intriguing that it matches up so well with fib price projections...
Anyway, nippy gave me 118.29 for mouteki target (going off the flag staff and an interim high at 117.77) and 127.2% is 118.33 for the range for an example, and this would end up being just under a new mouteki trendline (MTTL) ironically.


Who woulda thought we'd be nearing a breakout high after everyone expected a yen rally, even the brokers who gapped prices truckloads...

Anyway, it's almost 2 AM so it MIGHT be time to check if my bed is still there
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #724
  • Sep 17, 2006 8:52pm Sep 17, 2006 8:52pm
Quoting nathan
Well I have been back testing this in the year 2005. I am only up to August, but it just seems to work. I have had 20+ trades and only 3 of them went agaisnt me. If waited out it would eventually reverse and get to break even. Sometimes it only took a few days, but there was this one time it took like a week and you where in a 300 pip loss. But then it magically shot up and even meet the previous projected price. So good stuff here. Perhaps I will post my full year back test for you all to see. Still have 4 months to go.
You must be doing something radically different than I am - the EURUSD chart I'm looking at right this minute shows two trades that went totally bad right from the opening bar (along with one really good one that way more than compensated for the losers). I'll look for the results of your testing.
Old Benjamin was right
  • #725
  • Sep 18, 2006 12:01am Sep 18, 2006 12:01am
Thanks for this thread, Mouteki.

Can someone please point me to the download for the indicator in post # 594?

Thanks,

Bill
  • #726
  • Sep 18, 2006 12:11am Sep 18, 2006 12:11am
Quoting billparoli
Thanks for this thread, Mouteki.

Can someone please point me to the download for the indicator in post # 594?

Thanks,

Bill

My suggestion is dont. Its not perfect and will possibly throw you off by picking incorrect points etc. Plot them by hand, much more reliable as long as you double/tripple check.
  • #727
  • Sep 18, 2006 3:26am Sep 18, 2006 3:26am
USA/JAP - Buy signal!

Hi, Sorry, unable to post charts at present.
From my chart there is a supply line formed on the
USA/Yen where the first HIGH @ 117.77, on the
00-400am Friday 15th, the second HIGH, to the left,
@117.78 on Thursday 14th 800am-1200am.
This Supply line was broken by the 00-400am stick
this morning, followed by the LOW of the 400am-800am
stick using the Supply line as support.
Potential 48 point trade.
I'm demoing at themoment.
  • #728
  • Sep 18, 2006 4:02am Sep 18, 2006 4:02am
Mouteki,
Thank you for your great piece of work here. I do have one question that might have been asked/answered already...
Lets say we have an uptrend. We draw a demand line from point 1 to point 2. Then we look for the highest high recorded. When we look for the highest high recorded, is that between point 1 and 2? Or do we go back farther in time? The way I understand it is, we would go with the highest point between the 2 lowest points. Anyones help would be appreciated. Thank you.
JOHN 3:16
  • #729
  • Sep 18, 2006 4:33am Sep 18, 2006 4:33am
Quoting renasdad
Mouteki,
Thank you for your great piece of work here. I do have one question that might have been asked/answered already...
Lets say we have an uptrend. We draw a demand line from point 1 to point 2. Then we look for the highest high recorded. When we look for the highest high recorded, is that between point 1 and 2? Or do we go back farther in time? The way I understand it is, we would go with the highest point between the 2 lowest points. Anyones help would be appreciated. Thank you.

To quote from the .doc:
"True points of support are only those which low has two candles to the left of it and two candles to the right of it which lows do not exceed the low you are using"

This does not mean that it has to be the absolute high or low! (peak or trough)
This has been an issue which was been a bit confusing to me for quite a while now...You can get high spikes within a sideway run that work with this criteria and that work with the method, but which aren't an absolute high of say the last 3 days.


Also, always analyze your bars from the right to the left. Unformed/unfinished bars don't count, and there have to be 2 bars on each side for the "true" bar to be true

Just my opinion...
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #730
  • Sep 18, 2006 4:50am Sep 18, 2006 4:50am
Quoting renasdad
Mouteki,
Thank you for your great piece of work here. I do have one question that might have been asked/answered already...
Lets say we have an uptrend. We draw a demand line from point 1 to point 2. Then we look for the highest high recorded. When we look for the highest high recorded, is that between point 1 and 2? Or do we go back farther in time? The way I understand it is, we would go with the highest point between the 2 lowest points. Anyones help would be appreciated. Thank you.
Hi Dad
If you have a good look through the PPTs, you'll see that on Example #4 (slides #15 to #18) he's clearly drawn the low point beyond his selected points. And again on Example #6 (slides #27 to #31) the low is outside the selected points.
Choose any high/low point along the supply/demand lines that you've drawn.
Peter

PS Check out the first few slides in PPT2, you'll need to keep monitoring your highs and lows to adjust your profit targets.
  • #731
  • Sep 18, 2006 4:57am Sep 18, 2006 4:57am
Quoting renasdad
Mouteki,
Thank you for your great piece of work here. I do have one question that might have been asked/answered already...
Lets say we have an uptrend. We draw a demand line from point 1 to point 2. Then we look for the highest high recorded. When we look for the highest high recorded, is that between point 1 and 2? Or do we go back farther in time? The way I understand it is, we would go with the highest point between the 2 lowest points. Anyones help would be appreciated. Thank you.
Hi Renasdad,

I checked all the PPT slides and realised that Mouteki choose the lowest point for supply trend or hight point for demand trend is between point 2 and to the right of the latest close bar. You can check again his PPT slides for confirmation.
  • #732
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:19am Sep 18, 2006 6:19am
anyone notice any setups coming? i see the gbp/usd for a possible sell, and the usd/jpy for a buy...just my thoughts
  • #733
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:35am Sep 18, 2006 6:35am
Quoting moutekitrader
Greetings all, I have attached a lengthy power point presentation with 15 different examples. Hope this helps.

Moutekitrader,
Thanks for the idea and sharing this with us. Thanks also to all who posted good questions but do not flood the thread with confusions. Let it flows accordingly. Move slow but sure..
  • #734
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:36am Sep 18, 2006 6:36am
both look good - maybe USD/JPY on next candle - I am watching both.
Believe and Achieve!
  • #735
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:37am Sep 18, 2006 6:37am
Had a break already my chart, different timezone prolly...imho the best place to have entered though was at 1.8830s for a different reason, which I missed :/
Oh well. Let's see if we do end up at 1.8600 or lower again...

I'd say 1.8555 and 1.8479-82 and 1.8433 => 1.8375-85 would be quite nice to have this week


Mouteki doesn't trade mondays I think...

Here's my chart...if I took the TLs wrong someone point it out and say why please...
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #736
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:46am Sep 18, 2006 6:46am
Heads up, the Eur/JPY os setting up for a buy with huge upside potential
Believe and Achieve!
  • #737
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:54am Sep 18, 2006 6:54am
GBP/USD signal soon.
Attached Image
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #738
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:08am Sep 18, 2006 7:08am
I have posted this but got no reply, if you have time please answer it briefly:

Could someone please check slide 24 in the powerpoint presentation and tell me why he did not draw a vertical line through the blue candle with the highest peak to determine the intersection point with the demand trend line. But instead uses the red candle after the blue one to determine the intersection point. He does that often in the slide show.
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  • #739
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:24am Sep 18, 2006 7:24am
AUD/USD about to signal also - target almost 50 pips
Believe and Achieve!
  • #740
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:36am Sep 18, 2006 7:36am
Quoting Thebigmo
I have posted this but got no reply, if you have time please answer it briefly:

Could someone please check slide 24 in the powerpoint presentation and tell me why he did not draw a vertical line through the blue candle with the highest peak to determine the intersection point with the demand trend line. But instead uses the red candle after the blue one to determine the intersection point. He does that often in the slide show.
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You might be reading the presentation wrong? I believe he does it exactly like described in the .doc
I assume you are talking about the 24th slide in the first presentation, as the other 2 presentations only have 16 slides. He uses the highest high -> distance to the trendline for projection.
Don't see the problem to be honest.
Maybe read the .doc again and the posts then look at the chart again and see if it becomes clear...sorry I can't help more.

On another note: considering we are all in different timezones, there is no valid signal for all of us at the same time, so calling them in the thread is probably a bit...well, not relateable to all.

Oh and AUDUSD looks a bit flaggy/pennant like to me here
Trust price. Know yourself.
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