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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #10,001
  • Aug 2, 2017 11:03pm Aug 2, 2017 11:03pm
Sometimes I take a look at the trades on FF and EUR Shorts have dropped from 68% to 56% last few days. I like Bens area at 22 to start shorting, longer term. That would completely fill the break. NU is a good representation of whats happening to the value when it gets to that area.
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  • #10,002
  • Edited Aug 3, 2017 2:36am Aug 2, 2017 11:14pm | Edited Aug 3, 2017 2:36am
Some thoughts NC.

Longer term still looking for a break of the support. That 92 level has held for the last year and a half. If CAD can retrace and hold the CN range then CU has a lot more volatility and value run in it that the NU. This pair can easily run back to 95 for the test though. Im looking for 88 longer term but has to break that swing.
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  • #10,003
  • Aug 2, 2017 11:46pm Aug 2, 2017 11:46pm
GU Great place for a reversal if we get negative outcome today.
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  • #10,004
  • Aug 3, 2017 12:05am Aug 3, 2017 12:05am
Quoting squawk
GU Great place for a reversal if we get negative outcome today. {image}
Lots of events today for GBP pairs, will be volatile for sure.
Happy hunting
  • #10,005
  • Aug 3, 2017 12:24am Aug 3, 2017 12:24am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Lots of events today for GBP pairs, will be volatile for sure. Happy hunting
Cheers Jim, likewise.
  • #10,006
  • Aug 3, 2017 12:54am Aug 3, 2017 12:54am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} {image}
Got an alt bat in the zone now so watching carefully.

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It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #10,007
  • Aug 3, 2017 2:26am Aug 3, 2017 2:26am
Quoting squawk
{quote} Cheers Jim, likewise.
I just need Carney to kick us 67 pips North and then it can retrace and grind its way to my second target.
(Would be nice of him)
  • #10,008
  • Aug 3, 2017 2:56am Aug 3, 2017 2:56am
Who said retailers aren't in the market.

What I wonder about all this passive ETF investing is how are stocks getting priced now? I mean in the past when I bought a stock, say McDonald's and bad data starts coming in then it would get sold! now if you have that same stock in an ETF and the ETF is just getting bought up then there doesn't seem to be any valuation on stock by stock basis just a passive buy of the ETF fund. Seems to me almost like a basket of credit with AB and C grade where the hole basket keeps getting bought up with out the value of the C really being accessed? I don't know that's just my thought. In theory, I think the ETF is a great investment model but in normal times, but primed bubble material in other times.
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  • #10,009
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:13am Aug 3, 2017 3:13am
Quoting squawk
Who said retailers aren't in the market. What I wonder about all this passive ETF investing is how are stocks getting priced now? I mean in the past when I bought a stock, say McDonald's and bad data starts coming in then it would get sold! now if you have that same stock in an ETF and the ETF is just getting bought up then there doesn't seem to be any valuation on stock by stock basis just a passive buy of the ETF fund. Seems to me almost like a basket of credit with AB and C grade where the hole basket keeps getting bought up with out the value...
Good point. Sub-prime CDO's all over again. There was someone on adventure in finance or macro voices talking about this recently. The question as ever is when. If Pippa Malmgren is right then there is a long way to go before liquidity runs dry, however crazy the valuations may seem. I've not looked at Martin Armstrong for ages but he was predicting 40k Dow was coming. It wouldn't surprise me now.
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #10,010
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:38am Aug 3, 2017 3:38am
(Rubbing hands together)
(Yoda accent)

"If today, a shock hike there is from the BoE, a dovish hike it will be, the rip you must sell."
"If unchanged, hawkish talk there will be."

Now some pointless quote that looks like trading wisdom:
Marcus Aurelius - 2: "Do not stay out of rhythm for longer than you must; you will master the harmony more by constantly going back to it."

... Fingers off the trigger ...

Time to make lunch, coffee and get ready to watch charts bounce
  • #10,011
  • Aug 3, 2017 3:38am Aug 3, 2017 3:38am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Good point. Sub-prime CDO's all over again. There was someone on adventure in finance or macro voices talking about this recently. The question as ever is when. If Pippa Malmgren is right then there is a long way to go before liquidity runs dry, however crazy the valuations may seem. I've not looked at Martin Armstrong for ages but he was predicting 40k Dow was coming. It wouldn't surprise me now.
I think Jesse Felder had a guy on one of his podcast talking about the ETFs a while ago.
  • #10,012
  • Aug 3, 2017 4:17am Aug 3, 2017 4:17am
Quoting squawk
Who said retailers aren't in the market. What I wonder about all this passive ETF investing is how are stocks getting priced now? I mean in the past when I bought a stock, say McDonald's and bad data starts coming in then it would get sold! now if you have that same stock in an ETF and the ETF is just getting bought up then there doesn't seem to be any valuation on stock by stock basis just a passive buy of the ETF fund. Seems to me almost like a basket of credit with AB and C grade where the hole basket keeps getting bought up with out the value...
Think you are right, look PA especially techs lately. Signs....concentrated in Dow now...

we are almost there
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  • #10,013
  • Aug 3, 2017 4:26am Aug 3, 2017 4:26am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} Got an alt bat in the zone now so watching carefully. {image}
expectation yesterday was 886 did 786 done 886 so far...think you caught it failed so short yesterday
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,014
  • Aug 3, 2017 4:49am Aug 3, 2017 4:49am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} expectation yesterday was 886 did 786 done 886 so far...think you caught it failed so short yesterday {image} {image}
No it keeps missing me short and long. An utter bastard.
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #10,015
  • Aug 3, 2017 4:52am Aug 3, 2017 4:52am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Think you are right, look PA especially techs lately. Signs....concentrated in Dow now... we are almost there {image}
http://moneyweek.com/stockmarket-pea...#disqus_thread
It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.
  • #10,016
  • Aug 3, 2017 5:06am Aug 3, 2017 5:06am
ecad
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  • #10,017
  • Aug 3, 2017 5:08am Aug 3, 2017 5:08am
Quoting Lalu
{quote} http://moneyweek.com/stockmarket-pea...#disqus_thread
I know it sounds silly but the structure of the indexes are obvious to me....
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  • #10,018
  • Aug 3, 2017 5:14am Aug 3, 2017 5:14am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} gn similar structure {image}
Bad timing for me, it is what it is....

4 a.m. no work for me, but did catch the smaller wanted that larger....
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  • #10,019
  • Aug 3, 2017 5:18am Aug 3, 2017 5:18am
Quoting Mr. Scott
must be inbreeding again.... {image}
no close larger
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #10,020
  • Aug 3, 2017 5:30am Aug 3, 2017 5:30am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} I know it sounds silly but the structure of the indexes are obvious to me.... {image}
Yep usually the Fed that f's it up

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/02/fed-...recession.html
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
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