Technical Analysis and a few charts to ponder | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

Charts, Charts, Charts! 1 reply

Forex Daily Charts Scanning “price action in and between charts” 2 replies

Few analysis methods 6 replies

Financial Cowardice? A Question to ponder. 2 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis and a few charts to ponder
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis and a few charts to ponder

  • #41
  • Sep 17, 2006 6:05am Sep 17, 2006 6:05am
Quoting FXopportunist
I see that people are reading this post but nobody is posting. Is this of interest to anyone?
Oh Yea;

I am very interested. It's just I am replacing the exhaust manifold on my motor home and it is eating up way to much of my reading/study time. But must be done for business.
  • #42
  • Sep 17, 2006 6:12am Sep 17, 2006 6:12am
Me too. Please keep posting - this is a very interesting thread...

Cheers,
Innes.
  • #43
  • Sep 17, 2006 6:27am Sep 17, 2006 6:27am
Quoting FXopportunist
Here is the 4HR Franc.


$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Ok you are putting a lot of work into this and it is appriceated.
So here goes.
The usd/chf has been trading in an up channel since about 8/30. Depending on how you draw it I see a widening channel that makes me look for a break out. For some reason ( I beleive the dollar is gaining strenght) I am going to look for a retractment to about 1.2500 or maybe 1.2470.I would run fib's and post chart but I don't know how to post chart yet. What do you think

I have got to get back to manifold it is going to be 92 today.
  • #44
  • Sep 17, 2006 4:45pm Sep 17, 2006 4:45pm
Quoting bapxyz
Ok you are putting a lot of work into this and it is appriceated.
So here goes.
The usd/chf has been trading in an up channel since about 8/30. Depending on how you draw it I see a widening channel that makes me look for a break out. For some reason ( I beleive the dollar is gaining strenght) I am going to look for a retractment to about 1.2500 or maybe 1.2470.I would run fib's and post chart but I don't know how to post chart yet. What do you think

I have got to get back to manifold it is going to be 92 today.
Thanx bapxyz,

It is not too much extra work to size the charts and upload them. All these charts are exactly what I am trading off of anyway so most of the work is done just by matter of course.

I would rather do 6 hours of technical analysis on the Peso than change that darn manifold though!!!! Sounds like a knuckle buster!!!!

As for the Franc tech as a window for dollar analysis, I would say there has been no reason so far to kill the dollar favor. I will be watching for a econimic report to coincide with a significant reversal area. I always love how fundemantals and technicals dance.

Looking at the franc chart, we have 5/8 retrace fibo at 1.2750 that coincides perfectly with my highest price action channel. To me this a potential upside target if the fundies continue to favor this direction. I will be watchingthe Asian market and maybe early europe (if my bones will get outta bed) for short term support to hold at the 1.2550. I will consider some longs while that holds if the price action pleases me. If I do take longs from the 1.2550 area I would consider 1.2640 to be the t/p area unless we are gifted a super strong move that blows through that level. If 1.2550 fails I will be looking for shorts with exits at the price action channel lines. Potential targets are, 1.2500, 1,2450 & 1.2350 if the dollar gets sick.

As I have said before, I play reactions to these lines. I take position near them because they give me a framework to structure my money management. So with that being said, I usually take of part or a majority of my postion after the initial momentum dies and then just ride the remainder to the target. This is how my money mangament model works for me.

P.S. I will not continue to give target numbers. I don't want ANYONE trading off of my numbers. I merely stated the above numbers as an example of my interpretation of the charts going into the day. And only because bapxyz asked. Any guy that can change a manifold on a motor home is OK by me!
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #45
  • Sep 17, 2006 5:40pm Sep 17, 2006 5:40pm
Sometimes when I lay out Price action channels, nice little revesal zones show up. If you look at the below chart I have labeled them. As with all things in technical analysis, there is no guarantee it will reverse there. It is just an area that I will begin to look for reversal behavior in the price action.

The chart below is a 4HR Euro. as you can see we are currently centered in the reversal zone. Now I have to look at the fundementals for the week.
Attached Image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #46
  • Sep 18, 2006 9:47am Sep 18, 2006 9:47am
As you can see in this Euro 4 HR chart, a euro long in the reversal zone has euro longs in profit.
If the euro continues to strengthen ahead of tuesday's PPI and the rate announcment on wednesday, it could give euro longs a safe margin to trail stop losses. Ideally the data will be in euro long favor, but if they are not maybe trailing the stops to 20 to 30 pips from the market pre release would safely get reversal zone euro longs out while maintaining profits.
Attached Image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #47
  • Sep 18, 2006 4:48pm Sep 18, 2006 4:48pm
FX

I am just taking a break from the chores, have not had a chance to look at the market but am looking at your last chart. Do I see a possible "sloopy" head and shoulders getting ready to form? You'r right this is getting interesting.
  • #48
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:02pm Sep 18, 2006 6:02pm
The Franc is at the bottom of bull channel. If this Franc short is to be played like a fade of the trend then this is an area to take profit. If one speculates this as a potential dollar reversal to weakness, Franc shorts currently have some breathing room for tuesday and wednesdays data as long as the Asian and European markets don't reverse.
Attached Image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #49
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:06pm Sep 18, 2006 6:06pm
The Euro has been a on a slow grind from the 4HR price action channels reversal zone. It is currently at the midline. Depending on how strongly euro bulls feel about the fundementals, this is a good area to take some profits. I am very interested to see how the economic reports play out this week.
Attached Image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #50
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:08pm Sep 18, 2006 6:08pm
I surprised that we have not heard from any other traders who use old school tech. Am I an old school dinosaur??
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #51
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:41pm Sep 18, 2006 7:41pm
Good info. I was hoping someone would start a thread on TA since we lost the chart factory.

I usually keep an eye on channels since they form such obvious support and resistance points, but I notice you add the channels in the middle which I have not really being paying attention too and will be something I will start looking for.

I love this type of trading because for me it's all about getting good value for money. I also use fibonacci as well, support and resistance channels, plus levels gives multiple confluence points.

Do you know your average r/r? I aim for higher than 1:3 but prefer 1:5 if I can find it.
  • #52
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:48pm Sep 18, 2006 7:48pm
Hey mate,

I see you use murry math some real good stuff I like using it on 5min time frame 8/8 +&-1/8 +&-2/8 around 00,20,50,80 levals on OverSold (Frame128)


turbo
  • #53
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:10pm Sep 18, 2006 8:10pm
Here's my NZDUSD - keeping an eye on price action for a short.
Attached Image
  • #54
  • Sep 19, 2006 3:24pm Sep 19, 2006 3:24pm
Quoting minute
Good info. I was hoping someone would start a thread on TA since we lost the chart factory.

I usually keep an eye on channels since they form such obvious support and resistance points, but I notice you add the channels in the middle which I have not really being paying attention too and will be something I will start looking for.

I love this type of trading because for me it's all about getting good value for money. I also use fibonacci as well, support and resistance channels, plus levels gives multiple confluence points.

Do you know your average r/r? I aim for higher than 1:3 but prefer 1:5 if I can find it.
It is about 2.5:1 on my first target then the remainder that I let ride can be as much as 10:1. My confession to you is, I seldom hold em that long.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #55
  • Sep 19, 2006 3:25pm Sep 19, 2006 3:25pm
Quoting minute
Here's my NZDUSD - keeping an eye on price action for a short.
That is a sweetheart technical channel minute. I never look at that pair. Maybe I should.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #56
  • Sep 20, 2006 10:36am Sep 20, 2006 10:36am
As we would expect the dollar is showing weakness coming into the expected rate hold. The price channels are telling the story. If they fed statements follow the technicals we should see the euro reaching the top of the price channels and conversely the franc to the bottom. the following charts have some price channel target in both directions in case the FOMC surprises the markets with a hawkish statement. We all know the fed rules.
Attached Image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #57
  • Sep 20, 2006 10:37am Sep 20, 2006 10:37am
Franc 4HR chart pre FOMC
Attached Image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #58
  • Sep 20, 2006 12:13pm Sep 20, 2006 12:13pm
Fxopportunist,

I'm enjoying this thread..some great looking stuff here. I hope I am not cluttering your thread with this chart, but I was wondering what you thought of my efforts with the price channels.

Would you have put any extra (or less) channels on this chart, or maybe in a different place?

(Just trying to pick this up).

Thanks in advance.

Neil.
Attached Image
  • #59
  • Edited 12:56pm Sep 20, 2006 12:53pm | Edited 12:56pm
Hello Neil,

No you aren't cluttering up anything! This is everyones thread. I just started the conversation. I can see some correllations in your chart. Time will tell if they are good lines and angles. If they are you will get dependable reactions.
I typically dont use that big of a time frame myself. If you notice my charts are 4 HR too, just zoomed in more. When I first started noticing thes angles it was when I was doing projections like the attached chart below. Then I noticed that just one of the angles could frame price action channels. What you see in my other charts are born from that. Here is what my origional projection angles looked like for the pound in the 3rd quarter.
Attached Image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #60
  • Sep 20, 2006 1:10pm Sep 20, 2006 1:10pm
Quoting FXopportunist
Hello Neil,

No you aren't cluttering up anything! This is everyones thread. I just started the conversation. I can see some correllations in your chart. Time will tell if they are good lines and angles. If they are you will get dependable reactions.
I typically dont use that big of a time frame myself. If you notice my charts are 4 HR too, just zoomed in more. When I first started noticing thes angles it was when I was doing projections like the attached chart below. Then I noticed that just one of the angles could frame price action channels. What you see in my other charts are born from that. Here is what my origional projection angles looked like for the pound in the 3rd quarter.
Ahh..I see. Your channels are starting from a point and 'fanning out'. Not just drawn on parrallel like I have done.


Great. Thanks for the feedback. I'll give that a blast.

Neil.
0 traders viewing now