EURUSD | Page 56226 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #1,124,501
  • Jul 22, 2017 6:10pm Jul 22, 2017 6:10pm
Always keep in mind when funnymentally analyzing a currency pair there is a reason why it is referred to as a pair. Two economies are involved.

But in the case of EURUSD besides the U.S. and EuroZone economies the other major trading parties and their currencies and interest rates (GBP, JPY, Yuan and lesser extent CHF) have to be looked at as well to clearly understand what drives long term moves.

That is why I'd rather just watch price.
  • #1,124,502
  • Jul 22, 2017 6:46pm Jul 22, 2017 6:46pm
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} Hi 30jr Can you tell me which broker you use for the indexes? Thanks.
Here is the link,
https://www.liteforex.com/?uid=1780086527&cid=2890
  • #1,124,503
  • Edited 7:24pm Jul 22, 2017 7:12pm | Edited 7:24pm
Good Evening Everyone,

I feel, key work is "feel", not fact that The USD has multiple needs on it currency and relate bond rates. The FED wants the Rate to go up to help get it out of our stock market and to get people back into buying bonds. We, "USA", have a lot of old people labeled the "baby boomers" who need to retire and need nice safe high yielding bonds investments to do this.
However we have 20 trillion in US Gov debt that has to be refinanced in the long run. Each time our FED increases the rate, the US Gov has to pay more on financing the same debt. Thus limiting our ability to make payments or borrow more.
However the credit rating agencies like when our rates rise and when our FED gets it nose and assets our of our stock and bond markets.

It would seem to me that a couple of well time tweets by the US president can black swan the market on any given day.
Example tweets that could be used to override the markets big boys......

"Member nations who cannot follow austerity measures and pay their bills to the EU are to be removed and not protected by the NATO agreement" @therealdonald
"Banks assisting the investigation lead by Robert Mueller will be fined, taxed, and then not allowed to conduct business with Organizations, the US Gov, and private companies." @therealdonald
"NATO countries that do not keep up with their 2% spending on military, will allow more US troops to deploy on their soil and to allow existing military base facilities to expand in land footprint equal to the amount of money they are below 2% in spending each year." @therealdonald
"US companies with money being stored off shore in other countries will be assigned double the tax rate on all corporate profits with a minimum of 30% for ten years." @therealdonald
"US companies can repatriate monies stored off shore at a fixed tax rate of 10%." @therealdonald
"The USA grants powers to cyber privateers administered by the NSA to destroy bad guys and share financial, state secrets, and technology finds equally" http://www.themorgandoctrine.com/201...se-bonded.html @therealdonald

A couple of these tweets at the right time could definitely disrupt normal market corruption and the power balance of the elite.

What other likely black swan events do you "feel" could be weaponized and used in the markets? How do we protect ourselves?
Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #1,124,504
  • Jul 22, 2017 7:47pm Jul 22, 2017 7:47pm
Quoting SunTrader
Always keep in mind when funnymentally analyzing a currency pair there is a reason why it is referred to as a pair. Two economies are involved. But in the case of EURUSD besides the U.S. and EuroZone economies the other major trading parties and their currencies and interest rates (GBP, JPY, Yuan and lesser extent CHF) have to be looked at as well to clearly understand what drives long term moves. That is why I'd rather just watch price.
Agree wholeheartedly (couldn't like your post since I'm a new member).

Interconnection is real. For example, I was checking out EUR/JPY yesterday, and even with the Euro rally the pair was down significantly.

Turns out, turmoil in Washington (Trump probe) brought a risk-off tone to the markets (USD/JPY selloff!).

Thus, a political event in the US caused a safe haven move which affected the cross I was eyeing.

I bought the retracement on EUR/JPY and will see how things go for a week or two.

As to EUR/USD, I would wait for a retracement to occur, but to be honest I have not done my homework on it (from a technical analysis perspective).

If anything, one should probably wait for the current safe haven mood to completely dissipate before jumping in, but stay alert since developments on the Trump investigation or the North Korea-nuclear-situation may surface at any time, and they WILL mess with EUR/USD, at least in the short term.
  • #1,124,505
  • Jul 22, 2017 9:33pm Jul 22, 2017 9:33pm
A market truism:

The market will go up until it goes down.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,124,506
  • Jul 22, 2017 9:49pm Jul 22, 2017 9:49pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} It wont go back down. They were saying on Bloomberg they expect it to go to 1.2000 by the end of the year. Take into to account those are 3 trend lines on that chart you have highlighted. Also there is a rumour that the fed could drop its rate this week to 1.12% which will rocket the euro up 150 pips.
Where did you hear shit like that 1.12%? Are you working on Wall Street? Just right after raising rates they will reduce it a little like this??? Dude think twice before writing something like this public. Or you will earn label " incompetent ". Who are " they" you referring too? Please if you know very little at this point about how fundamental analysis works or anything about Federal Reserve and its decision I suggest you not to talk about it. You make wrong conclusion! Study technical! Avoid fundamental until you fully understand it!
  • #1,124,507
  • Jul 22, 2017 10:41pm Jul 22, 2017 10:41pm
I think that fed Will Rise the rate again
  • #1,124,508
  • Edited 12:54am Jul 23, 2017 12:26am | Edited 12:54am
Quoting Genimi
I think that fed Will Rise the rate again
Not soon! I may be sucked at discipline in trading but I am very good at fundamentals! Rates remain unchanged! Fed will not jeopardize their decision! Even I said it many times already, RAPID rates increase does nothing good! It takes time to modern economy to adjust to rates that they never had in 10 years. Week dollar will cover up inflation they need. Then job they creating just in line with jobless reports! Yellen said it before " we play games, make adjustments and watch what happens.." now they are watching! Rates will not change this year anymore. Economy growth not sustained to any more rate changes, even summer adjustment not helping! They are going to keep green buck down, till ECB cuts. That's why range 1650-1500-1480-1311 will be appropriate!
  • #1,124,509
  • Jul 23, 2017 1:57am Jul 23, 2017 1:57am
Comments from ECB president Draghi yesterday, as he addressed the customary press conference just after the ECBs policy meeting, were interpreted as hawkish. Mr Draghi said that no dates had been set for discussing any changes to the current ultra-easy policy but that they would probably re-consider in Autumn. His words effectively leave the door open for both extra stimulus and also balance sheet normalisation.
  • #1,124,510
  • Jul 23, 2017 5:12am Jul 23, 2017 5:12am
eu has reached an important resistance levels, eyes on Monday new barrage to decide what to do, will wait for Europe market open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 33 KB
  • #1,124,511
  • Edited 5:31am Jul 23, 2017 5:17am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting Mashallah
Comments from ECB president Draghi yesterday, as he addressed the customary press conference just after the ECBs policy meeting, were interpreted as hawkish. Mr Draghi said that no dates had been set for discussing any changes to the current ultra-easy policy but that they would probably re-consider in Autumn. His words effectively leave the door open for both extra stimulus and also balance sheet normalisation.
Interpreted as hawkish?? What a God forsaken moron journalist interpreted or wrote that crap?? Seriously, people have no decency about the lengths they go to to make fools of themselves...
  • #1,124,512
  • Jul 23, 2017 5:22am Jul 23, 2017 5:22am
Quoting denisius
{quote} Not soon! I may be sucked at discipline in trading but I am very good at fundamentals! Rates remain unchanged! Fed will not jeopardize their decision! Even I said it many times already, RAPID rates increase does nothing good! It takes time to modern economy to adjust to rates that they never had in 10 years. Week dollar will cover up inflation they need. Then job they creating just in line with jobless reports! Yellen said it before " we play games, make adjustments and watch what happens.." now they are watching! Rates will not change this...
I think you're wrong saying that they won't be any more rate hikes this year. That's the first real opportunity for Fed to do what they signal. They backtracked from their words last two years always finding the excuses not to hike and bringing the damage to their reputation. They are on completely different path now and I don't believe they will make the same mistake again. Rate hikes are well overdue anyway and at the very low levels historically. That's the first year the economy condition gives a chance to move on. Not sure where you took the notion that 'economy growth is not sustained to any more rate changes' from.
  • #1,124,513
  • Jul 23, 2017 5:59am Jul 23, 2017 5:59am
Quoting effix02
{quote} Interpreted as hawkish?? What a God forsaken moron journalist interpreted or wrote that crap?? Seriously, people have no decency about the lengths they go to to make fools of themselves...
sold media nothing else
  • #1,124,514
  • Jul 23, 2017 6:14am Jul 23, 2017 6:14am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} It wont go back down. They were saying on Bloomberg they expect it to go to 1.2000 by the end of the year. Take into to account those are 3 trend lines on that chart you have highlighted. Also there is a rumour that the fed could drop its rate this week to 1.12% which will rocket the euro up 150 pips.
one thing I have learnt about trading in my 13 years ... ..... keep an open mind
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,124,515
  • Jul 23, 2017 6:24am Jul 23, 2017 6:24am
My own personal opinion on Euro ...

Last time we reached this level on weekly charts we had huge volume coming in ....

This time we have drifted up with bearish divergence on the volume. The next few weeks are key in determining if we are in one big channel for euro Or if its going higher and higher. ...There is NO sign of weakness coming in yet on the weekly or daily charts.

So for those in buys just trail the stop.... those trying to sell FOR NOW DO NOT BOTHER IT WILL COST YOU MONEY

The dax is potentially going to breakdown on the weekly ,.. the powerhouse of europe is Germany . This MAY weigh on the euro .. but again just trade what we see in the charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 79 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,124,516
  • Jul 23, 2017 6:29am Jul 23, 2017 6:29am
Quoting Rumble89
{quote} As it happens, I was shorting USD/CAD this week. I entered the trade on Monday, and decided to hold the position into the CPI release (made a total of 149 pips). Maybe my thought process can shed some light: Last Friday's CPI numbers for the US gave new legs to the negative USD sentiment markets had been having for a while. To top this off, the political news about Trump, Russia, and the Healthcare Bill going bad, have also contributed to a lower USD lately (though some of these political events happened after I was in the trade). Also,...
FORGET fundamentals ..... I am not kidding. ... that's the best advice i can give any trader
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,124,517
  • Jul 23, 2017 6:38am Jul 23, 2017 6:38am
Quoting malcolmb14
My own personal opinion on Euro ... Last time we reached this level on weekly charts we had huge volume coming in .... This time we have drifted up with bearish divergence on the volume. The next few weeks are key in determining if we are in one big channel for euro Or if its going higher and higher. ...There is NO sign of weakness coming in yet on the weekly or daily charts. So for those in buys just trail the stop.... those trying to sell FOR NOW DO NOT BOTHER IT WILL COST YOU MONEY The dax is potentially going to breakdown on the weekly ,.. the...

Just had a look at the daily .. correction ... there is some potential sings of weakness on daily appearing .. the bars with the arrows are ultra
high volume up bars.. = weakness

lets see how the week unfolds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 77 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #1,124,518
  • Jul 23, 2017 6:41am Jul 23, 2017 6:41am
Not my best drawings yet

If there is a break of the most anticipated horizon resistance at 1.171*, then what I just drew may come in play
But if the daily candle respects the horizon resistance, then we might go down deep (I will need to re-draw )

Wishing everyone a prosperous week ahead



Always let your patience come in play
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 68 KB
  • #1,124,519
  • Jul 23, 2017 6:46am Jul 23, 2017 6:46am
RSI suggests the EU is in the peaking stage. I'm hoping for some retracement soon since I shorted some positions too soon. See what happens this week. It might be awhile.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,124,520
  • Jul 23, 2017 7:00am Jul 23, 2017 7:00am
Monday open few hours from here, I think next week will be retrace for pairs.
340 traders viewing now