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  • #1,124,481
  • Jul 22, 2017 5:35am Jul 22, 2017 5:35am
Quoting arash66110
{quote} I think the reason is not related to ecb,RBA,DATA ETC it's related to trump failure in his programs like health care and etc...... , aud, jpy EUR all are in the same boat. I believe we have big reversal in all of them but when? as long as to clear all retail positions.
near September is German election and eur will be under pressure,latter or sooner,but it will happen
What a great post.
Correct on all points. One more - Draghi and his crazy words push E up.
Then there's a channel up. 1.1760 target.

Then for the people rationalizing the move?? Why?? .
It's big players moving it. Relax. Just follow the move.
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #1,124,482
  • Jul 22, 2017 6:39am Jul 22, 2017 6:39am
Quoting Samson85
Hi All, This week has proved that trading is becoming so uncalculated to the point that it seems that calendar data releases and speeches mean nothing. For example this weeks USD/CAD CPI data was accurate with the forecast, but was still in decline from previous results. The only reason why the CAD gained strength was because retail sales came out at the same time which were positive. Sorry but retail sales should not have been a good enough reason for the CAD to strengthen as the CPI data although in line with the forecast was still in decline...
As it happens, I was shorting USD/CAD this week. I entered the trade on Monday, and decided to hold the position into the CPI release (made a total of 149 pips). Maybe my thought process can shed some light:

Last Friday's CPI numbers for the US gave new legs to the negative USD sentiment markets had been having for a while. To top this off, the political news about Trump, Russia, and the Healthcare Bill going bad, have also contributed to a lower USD lately (though some of these political events happened after I was in the trade).

Also, the FED had gone into its Blackout period, and there were no US data releases this week which would affect current USD sentiment, no matter how strong they were.

With this in mind, I wondered which currency might be best supported from a fundamental perspective. CAD was the best choice given how hawkish the BoC had been. Overall, the sentiment on CAD was (or is) very positive since we expect another rate hike soon -and apparently the BoC doesn't really care as much about low inflation right now.

By end of day Thrusday I was 70 pips in profits (37 pips locked in) and considered closing the trade due to potential CPI volatility.

I decided to keep the trade open because:
Given the BoC's current stand, and the incredible negative sentiment around USD, both Candadian CPI and retail sales would have to be significantly below expectations, for sentiment to reverse on the pair.

From a probabilistic point of view, the chances of both events coming below expectations (by a good margin) were lower than all other alternatives put together: mixed results, results in line with expectations, or even a beat on expectations.

Since most possible outcomes from the event were likely to fuel (or not change the bearish trend), I decided to hold.

And I was right (this time at least).

Please don't take this the wrong way, but you're not supposed to view market moves from a pure rational perspective. You must try to think like the market, and act according to what the market will most likely do.

However, I guess each person has their own needs: making pips VS sticking to your convictions.

Good weekend to all.
  • #1,124,483
  • Edited 8:36am Jul 22, 2017 7:09am | Edited 8:36am
USD index @92-91
I can.I will. End of story.
  • #1,124,484
  • Jul 22, 2017 7:41am Jul 22, 2017 7:41am
Heavily shorted in this one. Hoping we're nearing the end with a strong retracement to follow. No stops--just more shorting opportunity. Waiting for the turnaround.
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Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,124,485
  • Jul 22, 2017 8:52am Jul 22, 2017 8:52am
Quoting outlawz1
EURUSD long term Trade (Currently Trading at 1.1480) Sell @ 1.1631 add @ 1.1684 Target 1.1150 Stop Loss @ 1.1785
Long Term positions of Euro are filled.
  • #1,124,486
  • Jul 22, 2017 9:25am Jul 22, 2017 9:25am
Quoting Rumble89
{quote} As it happens, I was shorting USD/CAD this week. I entered the trade on Monday, and decided to hold the position into the CPI release (made a total of 149 pips). Maybe my thought process can shed some light: Last Friday's CPI numbers for the US gave new legs to the negative USD sentiment markets had been having for a while. To top this off, the political news about Trump, Russia, and the Healthcare Bill going bad, have also contributed to a lower USD lately (though some of these political events happened after I was in the trade). Also,...

Lol review the CPI data properly and you will see that it was in line with the forecast (But still negative). What got you those pips from the vent was the Retail sales. Even one of the analyst on forexlive.com said it was mediocre data. I guarantee you if that data had been for the pound it would have fallen asap. Trading into that even was very risky considering the forecasted data did not support trade at all, but then again if it had gone the other way it probably would have recovered asap.

I am not being biased whatsoever and just to let you know I made money on that cpi CAD trade as well, but I felt disgusted with myself afterwards based on the fact that it was nonsense!!
  • #1,124,487
  • Jul 22, 2017 9:30am Jul 22, 2017 9:30am
Hello my fellows frustraders! LOLLOL

Everyone still here? Nobody got broke? Good, very good

I am off to Dominican Republic for a couple of weeks buddies. The one good thing I remember from 24option is their advertisement saying "The life is different with money" BTW titis the only truth coming from their mouth LOL

Nevertheless the situation is different now and we are going to have a lot of fun. See you guys in a couple of weeks. Going to miss you and the charts

Have a good luck and a profitable trading guys

CU

Cheers
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,124,488
  • Jul 22, 2017 9:35am Jul 22, 2017 9:35am
Quoting NotAtrader
Hello my fellows frustraders! LOLLOL Everyone still here? Nobody got broke? Good, very good I am off to Dominican Republic for a couple of weeks buddies. The one good thing I remember from 24option is their advertisement saying "The life is different with money" BTW titis the only truth coming from their mouth LOL Nevertheless the situation is different now and we are going to have a lot of fun. See you guys in a couple of weeks. Going to miss you and the charts Have a good luck and a profitable trading guys CU Cheers
Have a nice one mate you deserve it. Be sure to spend your profits nicely!!
  • #1,124,489
  • Jul 22, 2017 9:38am Jul 22, 2017 9:38am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} You are still doing the same thing. USD is weak vs everything and that's the market now - period. Yet you tell me how usd is the best currency and it should be stronger, because of eur neutral news, one blabber from an AUD speaker, CAD bad news (though a couple weeks ago a CAD CB member said the environment is good to start raising rates) etc. You are trying to force your perception based on some numbers on the market which is doing the exact opposite. And do technicals create the market or are they created by it? Chicken or the egg?
Actually the weakest currency fundamentally of all the majors is Euro. The only force pushing it up relentlessly are completely irrational expectations than suddenly ECB will stop stimulus and the yields will fly high. The outcome will be ECB moving very, very small, gradual steps and once it's announced let's talk about Euro merits then.
  • #1,124,490
  • Jul 22, 2017 9:58am Jul 22, 2017 9:58am
It took them some time in the EUR future to build up this net long momentum:
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Let's see how long it will hold on.

In USD future we might see a little support in the next week.
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As far as I understand the rumors correctly (various news sources), the market participants are currently more in favor of the EUR then the USD.

To sum it up. A retracement to the 50% of the last weekly bar sounds reasonable to me before breaking higher and higher.
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Let's see what the next week will bring. It will do whatever it wants.
Pat
  • #1,124,491
  • Jul 22, 2017 10:04am Jul 22, 2017 10:04am
Quoting DerPat
...It will do whatever it wants.
so how do you interpret those rectangle marked areas? why did you marked it there?who to follow commercials or non-commercials? thank you.
I can.I will. End of story.
  • #1,124,492
  • Jul 22, 2017 10:06am Jul 22, 2017 10:06am
lets see what next week brings in. looking forward to good number of pips.
  • #1,124,493
  • Jul 22, 2017 10:39am Jul 22, 2017 10:39am
Quoting falcon72202
{quote} so how do you interpret those rectangle marked areas? why did you marked it there?who to follow commercials or non-commercials? thank you.
rectangle = range we were in for the last two years, you could even draw an additional rectangel from another retracement. I like fibo clusters and they help me personally a lot. You can always draw a fib retracement from a lost support or gained support area (retracement). You could also add an expansion from the first ll hh hl of the last uppush on the weekly to understand where targets might be
commercials = companies that need to hedge, so basically the do the opposite then you
non-commercials (large speculators) = those guys try to do the same as we, but are way better then we are (at least they have capital)
to follow --> no one else then your strategy
Pat
  • #1,124,494
  • Edited 3:23pm Jul 22, 2017 12:28pm | Edited 3:23pm
Hey Everyone,
Based on an old monthly resistance zone from November of 2005, I believe that the EURUSD pair will move back down into consolidation below 1.1650. I would anticipate a range of around 150 pips to get us back to the nice round number 1.1500. I have not checked, but it would be interesting to see how heavy the currency futures are piled up in this range of 1.1500 to 1.1650. Some big bankers may need to defend their contracts. What is everyone else seeing in their charts? Good luck to all!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #1,124,495
  • Edited 4:41pm Jul 22, 2017 4:25pm | Edited 4:41pm
Euro going up since the last French election. The victory of the last president will take this to 1.25.

In a bull, a negative release and prices not going down confirms a bull. (opposite for a bear).

EDIT: Now the only uncertainty is Italy, election I think are due next year.....before that there is enough time to continue its course.....

Only My perception.
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,124,496
  • Jul 22, 2017 4:29pm Jul 22, 2017 4:29pm
Quoting 002
Hey Everyone, Based on an old monthly resistance zone from November of 2005, I believe that the EURUSD pair will move back down into consolidation below 1.1650. I would anticipate a range of around 150 pips to get us back to the nice round number 1.1500. I have not checked, but it would be interesting to see how heavy the currency futures are piled up in this range of 1.1500 to 1.1650. Some big bankers may need to defend their contracts. What is everyone else seeing in their charts? Good luck to all! {image}
It wont go back down. They were saying on Bloomberg they expect it to go to 1.2000 by the end of the year.

Take into to account those are 3 trend lines on that chart you have highlighted.

Also there is a rumour that the fed could drop its rate this week to 1.12% which will rocket the euro up 150 pips.
  • #1,124,497
  • Jul 22, 2017 5:01pm Jul 22, 2017 5:01pm
Quoting ZenNy
Euro going up since the last French election. The victory of the last president will take this to 1.25. In a bull, a negative release and prices not going down confirms a bull. (opposite for a bear). EDIT: Now the only uncertainty is Italy, election I think are due next year.....before that there is enough time to continue its course..... Only My perception.
monthly

There is resistance around 1.17 ( 1/3 of the last leg down, top of the range and afterwards the 50sma).

But one has to look at how prices got to levels.... look at the last push up..... after a possible pause another leg up is also possible......
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,124,498
  • Edited Jul 23, 2017 6:57am Jul 22, 2017 5:04pm | Edited Jul 23, 2017 6:57am
Quoting ZenNy
Euro going up since the last French election. The victory of the last president will take this to 1.25....
My experience would suggest that political events have little to do with the markets as it's all about the economy. I don't even look at fudementals anymore--at least not daily events. Natural disasters can have more influence in my opinion.

The technicals seem to have more value such as the RSI breaking the 30% or 70%. Right now it broke the 70% so it is reasonable to expect a retrace.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #1,124,499
  • Jul 22, 2017 5:26pm Jul 22, 2017 5:26pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} It wont go back down. They were saying on Bloomberg they expect it to go to 1.2000 by the end of the year. Take into to account those are 3 trend lines on that chart you have highlighted. Also there is a rumour that the fed could drop its rate this week to 1.12% which will rocket the euro up 150 pips.
I saw much more venerable opinions than Bloomberg's expecting it to end 2017 below 1.10 and in the grand scheme of things it's much more realistic in my view

Oh, and thanks for the joke regarding 'a rumour about fed'. Made my day
  • #1,124,500
  • Jul 22, 2017 5:30pm Jul 22, 2017 5:30pm
Quoting ZenNy
Euro going up since the last French election. The victory of the last president will take this to 1.25. In a bull, a negative release and prices not going down confirms a bull. (opposite for a bear). EDIT: Now the only uncertainty is Italy, election I think are due next year.....before that there is enough time to continue its course..... Only My perception.
Don't allow yourself to be fooled and manipulated. Euro rallies on fumes of irrational expectations of a taper which will be nothing but. Open ended, small steps gradual reductions, no more than 10 billion per month in my view.
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