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  • #1,123,721
  • Edited 5:39am Jul 18, 2017 5:20am | Edited 5:39am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} try that long time ago.....it is just an illusion (cannot be explained with a couple of words) and you are paying double the spread...
Incorrect. Time isn't an illusion... and that's why hedging works as opposed to just closing a trade. You can't quantify time when you run the math. Hedging is essentially a method for shifting your risk across time into a different currency independently of your original position.

For that exact same reason 99.999999% of trades will be simultaneously winners or losers (eventually). What we're doing every time we place a trade is attempting to take advantage of the market's inefficiency.

In order to hedge properly you need to have a 3rd currency lined up in relation to your original pair that can capitalize on the adverse move. So, in this case for instance, where the EUR is rallying; You'd want to be buying something like EUR/JPY if the Yen is about to weaken by having pending buy orders on EUR/JPY instead of stops on EUR/USD.(and it's pretty strong on the 4h but not quite ripe for turning IMHO... judging by USD/JPY). Then, if the Yen started to strengthen, you'd probably want to have pending sell orders on USD/JPY. Triangular arbitrage through hedging is usually the easiest to execute.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,123,722
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:25am Jul 18, 2017 5:25am
Quoting bbk1
{quote} I've tried hedging in the past but ended losing on both sides. They're good at getting you in both directions
we will edge because we cannot accept losing trades......maybe we should learn to enter the turning points instead.....yes 50% will be losses but that is all fine.....we have learned to stay sit tight on a handful of trades which will bring the dough home....
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,123,723
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:25am Jul 18, 2017 5:25am
Quoting bbk1
The problem is here's nothing that's causing the eur to rally the way it has been so there must be something in the dark that Robber Banks know that we don't and I think it is: Draghi may finally get the rate hike from under his hat this Thursday and that news may had been leaked out to his RB buddies
As I gave and example that MM know and have all info on time:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post10095079
I can.I will. End of story.
  • #1,123,724
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:28am Jul 18, 2017 5:28am
Quoting bbk1
{quote} If it breaks the resistance at 1.1575 only then I would consider closing some of my shorts because after that resistance I would say the sky is the limit for this rally
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Or it's a disgustingly large stop-hunt that's going to turn on Thursday since there isn't really anything else this week. This move really is just assinine.
Well if the RBs are really such bad guys, then eventually they will be competting against themselves. Imagine the margin requirements they have to pay in order to manipulate the market to such degree. The more they push higher, the more they have to pay. And inthe end when they begin to take profit, they will end up at about BE.

Talking about Draghi, rate hike, currency strength and so on - IMO not every country in the EU can handle such strong Euro. Guys there is a reason why Euro has been so low recently and the economy in the Eurozone is far from helthy. Probably only Germany can handle the situation as it is now and maybe France too, while the rest will struggle and suffer from low export and low incomes from tourism.
It's not because I am short, but I really hope and think that Draghi will do something to weaken the Euro.
I don't know .... just my opinion

Cheers
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,123,725
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:30am Jul 18, 2017 5:30am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Incorrect. Time isn't an illusion... and that's why hedging works as opposed to just closing a trade. You can't quantify time when you run the math. Hedging is essentially a method for shifting your risk across time into a different currency independently of your original position. For that exact same reason 99.999999% of trades will be simultaneously winners or losers (eventually). What we're doing every time we place a trade is attempting to take advantage of the market's inefficiency.
Incorrect. Time (past and future) are an illusion, they do not exist (but only in the fragmentation of your own mind) ....only the present moment exist.
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,123,726
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:30am Jul 18, 2017 5:30am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} try that long time ago.....it is just an illusion (cannot be explained with a couple of words) and you are paying double the spread...
Hi pal. You asked and I answered. The choice is your my friend. If you don't know how to hedge - don't do it because you will lose double.

Cheers
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,123,727
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:31am Jul 18, 2017 5:31am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Hi pal. You asked and I answered. The choice is your my friend. If you don't know how to hedge - don't do it because you will lose double. Cheers
Thank you for your advice palo. Much appreciated. All the best.
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,123,728
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:31am Jul 18, 2017 5:31am
Quoting bbk1
The problem is here's nothing that's causing the eur to rally the way it has been so there must be something in the dark that Robber Banks know that we don't and I think it is: Draghi may finally get the rate hike from under his hat this Thursday and that news may had been leaked out to his RB buddies

There was a lot of shorts after the Gap made by the French elections . Easy money , Everyone thought ...
But they started to Pump it to kill all that shorts . Even when bad data. And keep Pump it till most of them disapear ...

During this possibility of rate hike , no rate hike and i bet they Will Pump it one last time and then drop it.

Its What i think
  • #1,123,729
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:35am Jul 18, 2017 5:35am
I think HEDGING works best in a ranging market or except your account is heavy like that and can suck up draw-downs for a while
  • #1,123,730
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:39am Jul 18, 2017 5:39am
Hedging is a game of Will and stress.
  • #1,123,731
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:41am Jul 18, 2017 5:41am
Quoting jusstin911
I think HEDGING works best in a ranging market or except your account is heavy like that and can suck up draw-downs for a while
Correct my friend. Absoluttely correct

Anyways you can still hedge with small accounts and in a trending market, as the price goes zig-zag. Insuch case you just have to sell every top and buy every dip. You will be probably sitting with some minor minuses in both accounts forever, but hevertheless your accounts will grow rapidly nad eventually one day you will recover the minus. That's it..

Cheers
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #1,123,732
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:41am Jul 18, 2017 5:41am
Quoting falcon72202
{quote} As I gave and example that MM know and have all info on time: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post10095079
Yeah I am sure they get the news before every one else and that's one reason they are always making money while we're always losing
Enter Signature
  • #1,123,733
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:42am Jul 18, 2017 5:42am
Quoting falcon72202
{quote} As I gave and example that MM know and have all info on time: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post10095079
These MM are not the MM you know. They are the other party in every transaction as they have to hedge the open positions. So if speculators go long, their MM other party is essentially buying their position by going short to hedge them out. If you read the CoT report, the only thing you should care about are the spec positions net short vs net long and change from last week. MM's are really irrelevant in this context.
  • #1,123,734
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:44am Jul 18, 2017 5:44am
It looks like it's going to 1.1615 then possibly to 1.1720
Enter Signature
  • #1,123,735
  • Edited 6:18am Jul 18, 2017 5:46am | Edited 6:18am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} Incorrect. Time (past and future) are an illusion, they do not exist (but only in the fragmentation of your own mind) ....only the present moment exist.
Sure, if you want to believe in the 'Efficient Market Hypothesis'. But you may need to work on your zen because this game only works because the market is inefficient. You may be 'one with the moment' but you aren't the only person alive who's trading the pairs using the same strategies. What you are seeing isn't what others are seeing in the present moment. Especially not if they're also looking at a 3rd currency to hedge when you aren't... or have pending orders waiting in anticipation (talk about 'being in the moment' before the moment happens...).

They say "how do you time the market?" and they respond "It's not so much about timing the market as time in the market" and by hedging you are always in the market moving with the flow no matter which way it turns. So, you can either sell your position and look for a new one at a loss(time out), sell your position and flip it at a loss(still double the spread), or have a hedge ready to capitalize so that if it turns against you the move is immediately profiting not only from that move(negating the loss) but also a 3rd pair's strength/weakness as it is now reacting to the move. As I said... it's a way to shift your risk across time to another currency. There might be a pair that wasn't a good trade unless it had a strong move and now that it happened you're in on it immediately because you anticipated what you'd do if something went wrong instead of just panicking with a stop. Your trade is now a Win-Win no matter what happens.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,123,736
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:48am Jul 18, 2017 5:48am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} These MM are not the MM you know. They are the other party in every transaction as they have to hedge the open positions. So if speculators go long, their MM other party is essentially buying their position by going short to hedge them out. If you read the CoT report, the only thing you should care about are the spec positions net short vs net long and change from last week. MM's are really irrelevant in this context.

ok. my point is whoever MM are they are informed on time before retail trader.
I can.I will. End of story.
  • #1,123,737
  • Jul 18, 2017 5:54am Jul 18, 2017 5:54am
Quoting falcon72202
{quote} ok. my point is whoever MM are they are informed on time before retail trader.
No, it's the speculators who are opening shorts and the MM's have to long to hedge them, the MM's are not forcing the specs to go short, nor do they trade on their own inside info.
  • #1,123,738
  • Jul 18, 2017 6:06am Jul 18, 2017 6:06am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Sure, if you want to believe in the 'Efficient Market Hypothesis'. But you may need to work on your zen because this game only works because the market is inefficient. You may be 'one with the moment' but you aren't the only person alive who's trading the pairs using the same strategies. What you are seeing isn't what others are seeing in the present moment. Especially not if they're also looking at a 3rd currency to hedge when you aren't... or have pending orders waiting in anticipation (talk about 'being in the moment' before the moment...
I do not believe in concepts....it is only stuff given to kids......I do not use a strategy but I only rely on my own skills which is a consequence of personal perception and experiences....and I doubt anyone else will trade the same way I do....

You might be good with words.....but words are not of any use in trading....

But please explain in a pragmatic way (so we all understand) how can we take advantages of hedging in trading.......we all want to believe....but please do not come up with the usual stuff we heard over and over.....make a graph which involves the 3 pairs you mentioned before and tell us how and when we need to get in and out....thanks in advance....looking forward to the new holy grail....
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #1,123,739
  • Jul 18, 2017 6:14am Jul 18, 2017 6:14am
Long Gold 1237.74
Stop 1236
Target 1240.20

I did not like smth chartwise , therefore 2.5 % risk .
  • #1,123,740
  • Jul 18, 2017 6:21am Jul 18, 2017 6:21am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} I do not believe in concepts....it is only stuff given to kids......I do not use a strategy but I only rely on my own skills which is a consequence of personal perception and experiences....and I doubt anyone else will trade the same way I do.... You might be good with words.....but words are not of any use in trading.... But please explain in a pragmatic way (so we all understand) how can we take advantages of hedging in trading.......we all want to believe....but please do not come up with the usual stuff we heard over and over.....make...
Please buddy don't be ignorant. I really respect your knowledge, but you being persistently ignorant will not get anywhere. Please no offend. I just want to trigger your mind to try thinking out of the box and ask yourself the question - "Why hedging do exist as a strategy and why some of the most successfull trading organisations base their profits on hedging"

This doesn't mean that anybody pushes to hedge, but you do not need to deny the strategy. With all respect... Good luck
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
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