USD/CAD

im in on short that i plan to hold through the coming weeks..usually i just mess around during the day but i dont see any sign of a bullish turn around with either technicals, PA or fundamentals so...1.25 by next weekend if boc rate hikes.

I was expecting that the 1.30 level would hold. More potential to the downside imo.

The pair oversold condition might suggest some correction movement.

I think so too. It rebounded from 1.2860 and considering how oversold it is it could rally to 1.2980.

keep in mind that even with oil prices being low, that cad has continued to gain value...this is a massive testiment to how bearish usd/cad really is. we have speculation of rate increase from BoC this week as well. Ill be adding shorts to any rally. unlikely that it hits 1.30 area again though.

if you disagree, okay..but i would only consider closing your shorts, not joining a long.

Expecting the move to the downside to end soon. The US dollar appears to be gaining momentum.

where are you seeing this momentum?

Playing devil's advocate here - The pair already dove over 2% after BOC rate hike discussion over a month's time. I'm thinking the rate hike is mostly baked into this pair. Looking to the FOMC June 14th rate hike, the USD rose marginally then retreated shortly after.

Only caveat to seeing upside on this pair is low oil, as you said.

BOC Monetary Policy Report - BOC Interest Rate
Local time: 10:00PM | GMT+8
Pair: USDCAD
Forecast: 0.75%
Consensus: 0.50%

If the data is above the forecast, USDCAD falls and vice versa.The interest rate varies quite rarely.

 BOC Monetary Policy Report <<< The Market reacts on the context of its statement. Tighter claims may mean a quick monetary policy tightening and reduction in incentives, which in turn will be supported by CAD (that is, will weaken the USDCAD pair). This is the time that the market participants or us retail traders to correct expectations.

 BOC Rate Statement <<< But if the change in the rate occurred contrary to the market expectations, then expect huge movements.

 Warning: If youre interested in trading around news events, please be reminded that the market may already be priced in before you enter into a trade. Therefore, use your keen observation with regards to price movement together with price action/structure, hours or minutes before the actual news events. This is just one of the reason why some traders try to avoid trading the news.
Trade at your own risk... Not responsible for your gains or losses.

What is a 'Tight Monetary Policy'

Tight monetary policy is a course of action undertaken by the Federal Reserve to constrict spending in an economy that is seen to be growing too quickly or to curb inflation when it is rising too fast. The Fed tightens policy or makes money tight by raising short-term interest rates through policy changes to the discount rate, also known as the federal funds rate. Increasing interest rates, increases the cost of borrowing and effectively reduces its attractiveness.

BREAKING DOWN 'Tight Monetary Policy'
Central banks around the world use monetary policy to regulate specific factors within the economy. Central banks most often use the federal funds rate as a leading tool for regulating market factors. Tightening policy occurs when central banks raise the federal funds rate, and easing occurs when central banks lower the federal funds rate.

Read more: Tight Monetary Policy http://www.investopedia.com/.../t/tightmonetarypolicy.asp...

My take... a 90% chance of interest rate hike...

Because of a very positive Employment Change report last Friday which outstripped forecasts and thus gave a great appetite to CAD amid the expected increase of Canada interest rate. As of today the forecast of the rate increase is up to 0.75% (from the earlier forecast of 0.55 %)

it might be a dovish hike with most of it already priced in

i will try to buy to see what happens

hope yall got on that train i sure did

Short at be.just a free ride now

BOC conference is in 15min. Take care, it might go further to the south as it might do completely the opposite.

I keep it if it stay below 1.2817 can't afford the bounce.1.276 good enough for me.

tempting to close the short but as ive been saying..im looking to 1.25, possibly 1.23. oil turning around a bit will be the catalyst for further downward momentum. monthly on usd/cad confirms bearish beyond todays drop. once again..opening a long is not a good idea..shorting rallies is.

If this keep going down.might have a good bounce for hundred pip at last year low.i day trade so i take what i can get.previous week 61.8 is close enough

1.2821 area should serve as a solid wall for any additions to shorts. SL should be about 1.2837

Well i'm done.it's almost midnight for me so i leave it be

pretty good support found at 1.2678 area.